Silver price in Q4

Silver began Q4 on a strong note, reaching US$31.37 per ounce on October 1 and climbing to US$32.18 on October 4; it then slipped to US$30.49 on October 9. However, the white metal’s price didn’t remain low for long. It surged to its year-to-date high of US$34.72 on October 22, also reaching its highest level in 12 years.

The most significant tailwinds for silver came from geopolitical tensions, with what appeared to be a greater likelihood of the Israel-Palestine conflict spilling over into a broader regional war in October. Israel’s attacks on Lebanon, Syria and Iran saw more investors seek the haven of precious metals, benefiting silver.

As November began, the price of silver was again in retreat, trading at US$30.24 by November 15.

Silver faced headwinds following the US presidential election on November 5, losing nearly 5 percent in a single day as some investors fled to interest-bearing assets. However, the metal’s losses were somewhat softened after the US Federal Reserve made a 25 basis point cut to its benchmark rate on November 7.

Silver price, Q4 2024.

Chart via Trading Economics.

As the month worse on, silver saw volatility, spiking to US$31.34 on November 22. The rise came as safe-haven investors flocked to the metal following an escalation in the war between Russia and Ukraine. The US, UK and France said they would allow the use of long-range missiles by Ukraine to attack military targets inside Russia.

Previously, Ukraine had only been allowed to use the missiles to strike targets along the border.

The response from Russia was a policy change that would permit the use of nuclear weapons against countries supported by nuclear powers. Following the move, Russia launched a test of an intermediate-range ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear payload on a target within Ukraine.

Silver fell to a quarterly low of US$30.11 on November 27, but since then the precious metal has regained some ground. As of December 11, it was trading at US$31.88.

The next Fed meeting is set to run from December 17 to 18. Most analysts expect the central bank to make one last 25 basis point cut before pausing in 2025.

How did silver perform for the rest of the year?

Silver price in Q1

Silver started the year on a low note as its lackluster performance from 2023 carried over.

However, rate cut expectations added momentum to silver at the end of February and the beginning of March, which pushed the price up from the US$22 range to above US$25.

Krauth also mentioned declining aboveground silver inventories.

“I think there may be 12 to 24 months left before they run out,” he said.

Silver price in Q2

The big news from the second quarter was silver breaking through the US$30 barrier.

The price continued to be fueled by rate cut speculation, but also saw support from industrial segments as demand from India soared. The country imported more silver during the first four months of 2024 than all of 2023.

Industrial segments, particularly photovoltaics production, have been a driver of Indian demand as the country works to build up its domestic solar supply chain through its approved list of models and manufacturers.

Silver price in Q3

Silver didn’t see much upward momentum through most of the third quarter.

Instead, it saw a significant retreat toward US$26. Still, by the end of the quarter, a Fed rate cut had provided a substantial tailwind for silver, sending it above the US$32 mark by the end of September.

The quarter also saw First Majestic Silver (TSX:AG,NYSE:AG) announce on September 5 that it would purchase all of the issued and outstanding shares of Gatos Silver (TSX:GATO,NYSE:GATO) in a US$970 million transaction.

The deal will give First Majestic a 70 percent stake in the Cerro Los Gatos mine in Northern Mexico. The combined entity’s anticipated annual production is 30 million to 32 million silver equivalent ounces.

This was followed on October 4 by Coeur Mining’s (NYSE:CDE) agreement to acquire SilverCrest Metals (TSX:SIL,NYSE:SILV) for US$1.7 billion. The deal will create one of the world’s largest silver producers, with annual output of 21 million ounces of the white metal projected by 2025.

The deal will give Coeur 100 percent ownership of the recently opened Las Chispas mine in Sonora, Mexico, which is projected to sell 9.8 million to 10.2 million silver equivalent ounces this year.

1. Autocatalysts

One of the main platinum uses is in the construction of autocatalysts. An autocatalyst is a “cylinder of circular or elliptical cross section made from ceramic or metal formed into a fine honeycomb and coated with a solution of chemicals and platinum group metals.” An autocatalyst mounted inside a stainless steel canister is known as a catalytic converter.

Catalytic converters are installed in a vehicle’s exhaust lines, between the engine and muffler, where they are used to moderate the dangerous qualities of exhaust. Specifically, the autocatalysts that vehicles contain convert over 90 percent of hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide into carbon dioxide, nitrogen and water vapor. They can also convert pollutants from diesel exhaust into carbon dioxide and water vapor, which is immensely helpful in reducing pollution.

Autocatalysts have been used in the US and Japan since 1974, and are now so common that over 95 percent of new vehicles sold each year have one. As a result, they are a significant source of platinum demand that is not likely to disappear in the future. Indeed, as pollution rules become more stringent, car companies are looking at creating even more efficient autocatalysts.

In 2024, platinum demand from the automotive sector was forecast to hit 3.17 million ounces, according to the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC). It’s expected to climb to an eight-year high of 3.25 million ounces in 2025.

2. Platinum jewelry

Platinum has many qualities that make it ideal for use in jewelry, and that is the second largest source of platinum demand. The metal is strong, resists tarnish and can repeatedly be heated and cooled without hardening or oxidizing.

When used to make jewelry, platinum is commonly alloyed with other platinum-group metals such as palladium, as well as copper and cobalt, so that it is easier to work with.

The history of platinum jewelry is long. More than 2,000 years ago, Indigenous people in South America made rings and ornaments out of platinum. Egyptians used platinum for decoration as early as the 7th century BCE. Meanwhile, Europeans began to use the metal in jewelry in the 18th century. Currently, China is the largest market for platinum jewelry.

In 2024, platinum demand for jewelry was expected to increase 5 percent year-over-year to 1.95 million ounces, and move up to 1.98 million ounces in 2025.

3. Industrial applications

Platinum’s industrial applications could fill a book all on their own. For instance, platinum catalysts are used to manufacture fertilizer ingredients, and the metal is a key component in silicones, hard disks, electronics, dental restoration, glass-manufacturing equipment and sensors in home safety devices.

Another platinum use is in the construction of hard drives with extremely high storage densities. And, because it is reactive to oxygen, oxides of nitrogen and carbon monoxide, platinum can be used to detect changes in the amount of those materials in vehicles and buildings. For the same reason, platinum is also used in medical sensors, particularly medical instruments that measure blood gases, to detect oxygen.

Industrial demand for platinum, including medical demand, was forecast to come in at 2.43 million ounces in 2024 before falling to 2.22 million in 2025.

4. Medical applications

Platinum is used in electronic medical devices like those mentioned above, as well as in catheters, stents and neuromodulation devices. It is ideal for these applications because of its durability, conductivity and biocompatibility. The metal is also inert within the body, making it safe for implantation.

To meet other medical needs, platinum can be formed into rods, wires, ribbons, sheets and micromachined parts. Further, it helps fight cancer in the drugs cisplatin and carboplatin, which are widely used to treat testicular cancer, as well as ovarian, breast and lung cancer tumors.

Medical demand for platinum has increased in recent years, and is forecast to rise to 303,000 ounces in 2024 and 314,000 ounces in 2025.

FAQs about platinum

Competition heats up among AI heavyweights

As mentioned, major tech companies jumped headfirst into AI in 2024.

For its part, Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) began the year by rebranding its Bard chatbot as Gemini. The February decision streamlined its AI products under a single brand, showcasing a move toward a more sophisticated and unified AI experience. Its newest interaction, Gemini 2.0, was released on December 11.

Meanwhile, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) deepened its partnership with OpenAI, investing another US$750 million during an October funding round worth US$6.6 billion. This latest round brought the company behind ChatGPT to a total valuation of US$157 billion. According to SEC filings, Microsoft’s total investment in OpenAI has now reached US$13 billion.

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), SoftBank (TSE:9434) and a handful of venture capital firms also participated in the round, but under the stipulation that OpenAI shift control of its dealings to a for-profit arm.

This sparked rumors that a potential initial public offering on the horizon.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), notably missing from the list of investors who participated in OpenAI’s October funding round, has opted for a more independent path, focusing on internal AI development.

At its annual developer conference from June 10 to 14, it unveiled Apple Intelligence for iOS18, saying it was coming to iPhone 16, iPadOS 18 and macOS Sequoia users. However, the company also shared plans to integrate ChatGPT in some products, like its voice-activated assistant Siri, as a supplemental layer on top of Apple Intelligence.

Apple performance, January 1 to December 17, 2024.

Chart via Google Finance.

The company’s share price gained almost 8 percent by the end of the conference.

Apple Intelligence was released for qualifying models on October 28, and the newest software update, including ChatGPT for writing tools and Siri, was released on December 11.

OpenAI itself released GPT-4o on May 13, saying that it was optimized for multimodal tasks like analyzing audio and video. Later in the year, on September 12, the company previewed its first o1 model. OpenAI’s o1 series is designed to spend more time “thinking” before it responds and possesses advanced reasoning skills.

However, shortly after the model was released, The Information reported that o1 showed a slower rate of improvement compared to previous models, exposing potential limitations to continuous advancements in AI capabilities.

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), while less focused on consumer-facing AI products, invested heavily in building out its cloud infrastructure and allocated another US$4 billion to AI research company and OpenAI rival Anthropic on November 22. This brings Amazon’s total investment in Anthropic to US$8 billion. As part of this expanded partnership with Amazon, Anthropic also made Amazon Web Services its primary cloud provider.

Meta (NASDAQ:META) focused on integrating generative AI across its platforms in 2024, leading to enhancements like better ad targeting and content recommendations. The company also released the MTIA v2 chip, an improved version of its AI inference chip that is designed to handle the massive amount of data generated by Meta’s customer base. The newest version of Meta’s open-sourced large language model, Llama 3, was released on April 18.

Elon Musk’s AI company, xAI, upgraded its large language model Grok-2. A beta version of Grok-2 was released on August 13 and was made available to all X users on December 12. Grok-2 was trained on xAI’s supercomputer Colossus, which is powered by 100,000 NVIDIA graphics processing units (GPUs) and came online on September 11. The company held two US$6 billion funding rounds in 2024, and as of November 28 was valued at a staggering US$50 billion.

NVIDIA performance, January 1 to December 17, 2024.

Chart via Google Finance.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) (NASDAQ:AMD), NVIDIA’s most direct competitor, reported a 9 percent increase in revenue in Q2, driven by its MI300X AI chip. MI300X combines GPU and central processing unit capabilities into a single chip, giving a leg up over NVIDIA, which designs both chips separately to work together.

Also in 2024, AMD collaborated with a handful of software and hardware companies to develop a new AI accelerator standard that is capable of challenging NVIDIA’s NVLink.

2024 presented chip designers with a challenge as customers like Apple and Google increasingly moved chip design in-house. Made by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC) (NASDAQ:TSM), Apple’s A- and M-series chips feature a neural engine to enable on-device AI and powered a slew of new products released this year.

Google released its Tensor G4 chip, designed in collaboration with Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) and manufactured by TSMC. The G4 chip powers Google’s refreshed lineup of Pixel devices, released on August 13.

The shifting trends resulted in TSMC emerging as an undisputed victor. The company reported outstanding revenue and profits in 2024, fueled by a surge in demand for powerful chips and its advanced manufacturing technologies.

Its share price hit an intraday high of US$211.93 on October 17 following its Q3 results, and it recorded an all-time high closing share price of US$205.19 that same day.

According to a December 9 report by Taipei-based market intelligence provider TrendForce, TSMC increased its share of the wafer foundry market to 65 percent in the third quarter.

TSMC performance, January 1 to December 17, 2024.

Chart via Google Finance.

Another chip company, Broadcom, successfully navigated 2024 by diversifying into software through its acquisition of VMware. Broadcom, which plays a crucial role in the semiconductor industry by designing and manufacturing chips that enable the realization of software objectives, reported record revenue for its 2024 fiscal year,

The rise was driven by strong demand for its semiconductor products and the successful integration of VMware. The company’s AI-related revenue more than tripled, and its quarterly dividend rose by 11 percent.

In contrast, Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), which remained largely focused on the hardware market this past year, appeared more vulnerable to the industry’s shifting tides.

Even industry giants like Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) faced their share of turbulence. While its foundry business struggled, Intel’s computer parts division did well, with its Core Ultra processors powering a lineup of AI-enabled laptops from Microsoft and Dell (NYSE:DELL). Dell also pushed into hybrid solutions and edge computing with its APEX portfolio.

Broadcom, Qualcomm and Intel performance, January 1 to December 17, 2024.

Chart via Google Finance.

AI hype pays dividends for tech giants

Despite a notable pullback in Q2 and Q3 due in part to investor concerns about the long-term returns of massive AI investments, 2024 was a year of strong financial performances for tech giants, as evidenced by their dividend payouts.

Meta announced cash dividend payments in May and September, while in Microsoft said in September that it would reward shareholders with a 10 percent increase to its quarterly dividend payment.

Alphabet also issued quarterly dividends for the first time in 2024, distributing payments three times.

It’s worth noting that the initial surge in spending and subsequent pullback could have been influenced by a variety of factors, including hype cycles, macroeconomic conditions and evolving understandings of AI’s capabilities and limitations.

Investor takeaway

Ultimately, despite occasional fluctuations and concerns, investor confidence in the tech sector remained strong throughout 2024, with funding continuing to flow. As of mid-December, shares of Microsoft were up over 21 percent year-to-date, while Alphabet was up by over 44 percent and NVIDIA was up an astonishing 166 percent.

In 2024, the AI sector experienced rapid advancements and fierce competition, driven by substantial investments from tech giants. As the technology continues to mature, the stage is set for continued innovation and disruption, promising an exciting future for AI and its applications.

1. China

Tin production: 68,000 metric tons
Tin reserves: 1.1 million metric tons

China was the world’s top tin-producing country in 2023, with output totaling 68,000 metric tons. It continues its streak as the world’s largest tin-producing country despite a gradual year-on-year decline, down from 2022’s 71,000 MT.

China also holds the largest tin reserves in the world, with more than 1.1 million metric tons.

Currently, China is embroiled in a trade war with the US as political tensions continue to mount. In December 2024, the trade giant China set new US export restrictions on essential minerals, including gallium, germanium and antimony. Analysts speculate that the export curb list will soon include tin, as both countries are determined to cut off each other’s dominance in specific production sectors.

2. Myanmar

Tin production: 54,000 metric tons
Tin reserves: 700,000 metric tons

Myanmar, also known as Burma, produced 54,000 metric tons of tin in 2023, leapfrogging over Indonesia to become the world’s second-largest tin-producing country last year. The Asian country garnered the largest increase in tin production, up significantly from 47,000 MT in 2022.

Myanmar’s self-administered Wa state is home to the majority of the country’s tin output, including the Man Maw tin mine, which is one of the world’s top-producing tin mines.

In April 2023, the Wa state declared that mining operations within its jurisdiction would be suspended starting in August to conserve mineral resources while awaiting an audit of the tin industry and the implementation of new mining regulations.

By August, all activities related to mining, processing and the transport of raw ore had been halted in the state. The Man Maw’s failure to restart operations in August 2023 due to the ban instituted by the Wa militia has impacted industry prices throughout the year. As of September 2024, mining at Man Maw was still suspended, although many smaller tin mines The tin audit has greatly limited tin imports to China and Indonesia, driving prices upward due to lower metal concentrates.

3. Indonesia

Tin production: 52,000 metric tons
Tin reserves: Not available

Indonesia’s tin production came in at 52,000 metric tons in 2023. After coming within touching distance of first place the year before with tin production of 70,000 MT to China’s 71,000 MT, in 2023 Indonesia conceded its runner-up spot to Burma. Contrary to Burma’s production surge, the country recorded the steepest production dip in 2023.

Last year, Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources designated tin as a critical mineral, recognizing its supply importance, economic value and role in high-tech applications.

4. Peru

Tin production: 23,000 metric tons
Tin reserves: 130,000 metric tons

Peru also saw its tin output decline last year, when the country’s total tin production was 23,000 metric tons, a drop from 2022’s 28,200 MT. The South American country was the primary supplier of tin to the US last year.

Peru-based miner Minsur operates the San Rafael tin mine in the country. San Rafael is one of the world’s largest tin mines.

5. Democratic Republic of Congo

Tin production: 19,000 metric tons
Tin reserves: 120,000 metric tons

The Democratic Republic of Congo produced 19,000 metric tons of tin in 2023, a slight increase in its production compared to 2022’s 18,600 MT.

Alphamin Resources (TSXV:AFM,OTC Pink:AFMJF) operates the Bisie tin complex, which hosts the world’s two highest-grade tin mines, Mpama North and the recently constructed Mpama South. The company is ramping up production at the operation following an expansion that will raise annual output to 20,000 MT.

6. Brazil

Tin production: 18,000 metric tons
Tin reserves: 420,000 metric tons

Brazil’s tin production totaled 18,000 metric tons in 2023, registering a slight year-over-year increase from 17,000 MT. Since its production uptick in recent years, Brazil remains as a mainstay among the world’s top tin producers.

This year, Peruvian miner Minsur agreed to sell its Brazilian subsidiary Mineração Taboca, which operates the Pitinga tin mine and Pirapora smelter in Brazil, to China Nonferrous Trade (OTC Pink:CNFMF,HKEX:1258) for US$340 million.

Taboca, the largest tin producer in Brazil, contributed over a third of the country’s refined tin production in 2023 and is Brazil’s only fully integrated tin producer. The Pitinga mine in the Amazon holds the world’s largest tin resource by tin content, with reserves of 279,000 MT expected to sustain production for at least 30 years.

6. Bolivia

Tin production: 18,000 metric tons
Tin reserves: 400,000 metric tons

Bolivia makes the list tied with Brazil at 18,000 metric tons of tin production in 2023.

Bolivia’s state-owned Vinto smelter declared force majeure in March 2023 due to coal shortages from Peru, resulting in weekly production losses of up to 200 MT of tin.

Further compounding the issue, Vinto did not receive concentrate from the country’s Huanuni and Calquiri mines for over two months due to US$90 million in outstanding debts, leading to protests by miners in La Paz who wanted the debt cancelled.

8. Australia

Tin production: 9,100 metric tons
Tin reserves: 620,000 metric tons

Australia’s tin output for 2023 remained relatively untouched at 9,100 metric tons, just a slight increase from 2022’s 9,000 MT.

Australian tin producer Metals X (ASX:MLX) has invested AU$4.64 million in First Tin (LSE:1SN) this year, acquiring a 23 percent stake to support tin development projects in Australia and Germany.

Metals X, co-owner of the Renison mine in Tasmania, aims to leverage its operational expertise to accelerate First Tin’s Taronga project in New South Wales, which targets production by 2027 following a strong feasibility study.

9. Nigeria

Tin production: 8,100 metric tons
Tin reserves: Not available

Nigeria follows the trend of incremental production increases year by year, increasing by 15.71 percent or 8,100 MT from 2022’s 7,000 MT mark. Nigeria’s Plateau State, home to the country’s largest tin reserves, has witnessed a resurgence in mining activities as global tin prices rose above US$30,000 per metric ton in 2024, up from US$5,000 in the early 2000s.

Despite this boom, the sector remains largely unregulated, with artisanal and illegal mining dominating production and contributing little to government revenue. Between 2018 and 2022, Nigeria’s solid minerals sector, which includes tin, contributed a mere 0.17 percent to the nation’s GDP, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

10. Malaysia

Tin production: 6,100 metric tons
Tin reserves: Not available

Rounding out the list of the world’s top tin-producing countries for 2023 is Malaysia, which produced 6,100 metric tons last year, up from 2022’s 5,000 MT.

Malaysia Smelting (KLSE:MSC), the second top tin-producing company in the world, is poised to benefit from bullish tin forecasts, as the century-old company has posted above-expected margins in the second and third quarter of 2024.

1. Autocatalysts

One of the main platinum uses is in the construction of autocatalysts. An autocatalyst is a “cylinder of circular or elliptical cross section made from ceramic or metal formed into a fine honeycomb and coated with a solution of chemicals and platinum group metals.” An autocatalyst mounted inside a stainless steel canister is known as a catalytic converter.

Catalytic converters are installed in a vehicle’s exhaust lines, between the engine and muffler, where they are used to moderate the dangerous qualities of exhaust. Specifically, the autocatalysts that vehicles contain convert over 90 percent of hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide into carbon dioxide, nitrogen and water vapor. They can also convert pollutants from diesel exhaust into carbon dioxide and water vapor, which is immensely helpful in reducing pollution.

Autocatalysts have been used in the US and Japan since 1974, and are now so common that over 95 percent of new vehicles sold each year have one. As a result, they are a significant source of platinum demand that is not likely to disappear in the future. Indeed, as pollution rules become more stringent, car companies are looking at creating even more efficient autocatalysts.

In 2024, platinum demand from the automotive sector was forecast to hit 3.17 million ounces, according to the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC). It’s expected to climb to an eight-year high of 3.25 million ounces in 2025.

2. Platinum jewelry

Platinum has many qualities that make it ideal for use in jewelry, and that is the second largest source of platinum demand. The metal is strong, resists tarnish and can repeatedly be heated and cooled without hardening or oxidizing.

When used to make jewelry, platinum is commonly alloyed with other platinum-group metals such as palladium, as well as copper and cobalt, so that it is easier to work with.

The history of platinum jewelry is long. More than 2,000 years ago, Indigenous people in South America made rings and ornaments out of platinum. Egyptians used platinum for decoration as early as the 7th century BCE. Meanwhile, Europeans began to use the metal in jewelry in the 18th century. Currently, China is the largest market for platinum jewelry.

In 2024, platinum demand for jewelry was expected to increase 5 percent year-over-year to 1.95 million ounces, and move up to 1.98 million ounces in 2025.

3. Industrial applications

Platinum’s industrial applications could fill a book all on their own. For instance, platinum catalysts are used to manufacture fertilizer ingredients, and the metal is a key component in silicones, hard disks, electronics, dental restoration, glass-manufacturing equipment and sensors in home safety devices.

Another platinum use is in the construction of hard drives with extremely high storage densities. And, because it is reactive to oxygen, oxides of nitrogen and carbon monoxide, platinum can be used to detect changes in the amount of those materials in vehicles and buildings. For the same reason, platinum is also used in medical sensors, particularly medical instruments that measure blood gases, to detect oxygen.

Industrial demand for platinum, including medical demand, was forecast to come in at 2.43 million ounces in 2024 before falling to 2.22 million in 2025.

4. Medical applications

Platinum is used in electronic medical devices like those mentioned above, as well as in catheters, stents and neuromodulation devices. It is ideal for these applications because of its durability, conductivity and biocompatibility. The metal is also inert within the body, making it safe for implantation.

To meet other medical needs, platinum can be formed into rods, wires, ribbons, sheets and micromachined parts. Further, it helps fight cancer in the drugs cisplatin and carboplatin, which are widely used to treat testicular cancer, as well as ovarian, breast and lung cancer tumors.

Medical demand for platinum has increased in recent years, and is forecast to rise to 303,000 ounces in 2024 and 314,000 ounces in 2025.

FAQs about platinum