I like to trade stocks that are relative leaders and belong to industry groups that are leaders as well. For the past 2-3 months, much has been written about and discussed with respect to semiconductors ($DJUSSC), software ($DJUSSW), electrical components & equipment ($DJUSEC), electronic equipment ($DJUSAI), recreational services ($DJUSRQ), travel & tourism ($DJUSTT), etc. These groups were laggards prior to showing absolute and relative strength and, many times, it’s the absolute strength (think breakout) that triggers money flows into that particular area of the market.

With that in mind, where’s one area that we could see upcoming strength during the summer months?

Computer Hardware

I know this group has been out of favor, but that seemed to change last week:

Its absolute downtrend seems to have been broken and we saw a glimpse of solid relative strength. Seasonality also leads me to believe that this run could very well just be getting started. Check this out:

Over the past 20 years, the DJUSCR has crushed the S&P 500 during the months of July and August. It’s easily been the group’s best two calendar months historically. These two months have consistently been great months for computer hardware stocks as they’ve each gained ground in roughly 3 out of every 4 years. Apple, Inc. (AAPL), the leading computer hardware stock, absolutely loves the months of July and August.

I expect last week’s rally to continue right up to AAPL’s earnings report on July 31st, and possibly beyond.

I’ll be featuring one other computer hardware stock in our FREE EB Digest newsletter on Monday morning that has CRUSHED the S&P 500 during July and August historically and it boasts one of the strongest charts in technology since the April low. If you’re not already an EB Digest subscriber, simply CLICK HERE to provide your name and email address. I’ll get that chart out to you first thing tomorrow morning!

Happy trading!

Tom

After a strong move in the week before this one, the Nifty spent the last five sessions largely consolidating in a very defined range. The markets traded with a weak underlying bias and lost ground gradually over the past few days; however, the drawdown remained quite measured and within the expected range. As the markets consolidated, the trading range got narrower. The Nifty moved in a 337-point range during the week. While the Index formed a near-similar high, it marked a much higher low. The volatility also retraced; the India VIX came off by 0.59% to 12.31. While showing no intention to trend higher, the headline Index closed with a net weekly loss of 176.80 points (-0.69%).

The Nifty has created an intermediate resistance zone between 25600 and 25650. A trending move on the upside would happen only if the Nifty is able to take out this zone on the upside convincingly. Until that happens, we will see the Nifty continuing to consolidate with 25100 acting as support. This is the prior resistance level, which is expected to act as support in case of any corrective retracement. So long as the Nifty is inside the 25000-25650 zone, it is unlikely to develop any sustainable directional bias on either side.

Friday was a trading holiday in the US. Because of this, we will not have any overnight cues to deal with on Monday. The Indian markets may see a stable and quiet start. The levels of 25650 and 25800 are likely to act as probable resistance points. Support levels come in at 25250 and 25000.

The weekly MACD is bullish and remains above its signal line. The weekly RSI is 62.40; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. No major formation was noticed on the candles.

The pattern analysis of the weekly chart reveals that after breaking above the rising trendline resistance and moving past the 25000-25150 zone, the Nifty consolidated after trending higher for four consecutive days. Over the past week, it gave up a portion of its gains and consolidated at higher levels. In the process, it has dragged its support level higher to 25000. As long as the Index remains above this point, the breakout and the resumption of the upmove observed in the preceding week remain valid and intact.

Overall, it is expected that the Nifty will remain within the 25000-25650 range over the coming week. The markets are unlikely to develop any directional bias unless they move past the 25650 level or violate the 25000 level. Sector rotation within the market is very much visible; it would be imperative to efficiently rotate sectors and stay invested in those that show improved relative strength and a promising technical setup. We are likely to see improved performance in the Auto, Energy, IT, and broader markets, among other sectors. It is also strongly recommended to protect profits here, where the stocks have run up hard. Any aggressive shorting should be avoided as long as the Nifty stays above the 25000 level. A cautiously positive approach is advised for the coming week.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks. 

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty PSU Bank Index and the Midcap 100 Index are the only two groups that are inside the leading quadrant. They are likely to outperform the broader markets relatively.

The Nifty Infrastructure Index is experiencing an improvement in its relative momentum while it remains within the weakening quadrant. Additionally, the PSE, Nifty Bank, and the Financial Services Index are located within the weakening quadrant. While individual stock-specific performance may not be ruled out, the overall relative performance may take a backseat.

The Commodities Index and the Services Sector Index have rolled into the lagging quadrant. The Consumption, Pharma, and the FMCG Indices also continue to languish inside the lagging quadrant. The Metal Index is showing a sharp improvement in its relative momentum against the broader markets, while staying within the lagging quadrant.

The IT, Energy, Media, Realty, and Auto Indices are inside the Improving quadrant. They continue to rotate firmly while improving their relative performance against the broader Nifty 500 Index.

Important Note: RRG™ charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

This holiday-shortened week was anything but short on action! The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed at record highs, but what is really driving the market?  

In this essential recap, expert Mary Ellen McGonagle dives into the sectors and stocks making big moves. She’ll reveal why energy and financial stocks are heating up, discuss the surge in biotech and regional banks, and provide key insights into software and renewable energy trends. 

Discover the technical signals behind these moves and learn how you can spot early-stage reversals across different sectors. 

Don’t miss Mary Ellen’s latest insights from July 3, 2025.

You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

Feeling a little anxious about the market, even with a strong economy? The truth is, money isn’t fleeing the market; it’s simply moving around, creating fresh opportunities. 

In this must-watch video, Tom Bowley of EarningsBeats eases those anxieties by providing charts that show this rotation. Tom shows clear signals of broad market participation, digging into the performance of key areas like transports, tech stocks, regional banks, small caps, and mid caps. He also touches on bonds, major indexes, and individual stocks with intriguing patterns. 

An interesting insight brought up in this video is that this market environment is drastically different from February. We’re seeing much more bullish action now with all areas of the market on the rise. If you’re looking to capitalize on the market’s rally, understanding these rotations is key. 

The video was recorded on July 2, 2025.

Stocks keep notching record highs. If you’re like most investors, you’re probably wondering, “Should I really chase these prices or sit tight and wait for a pullback?”

Instead of overthinking and ending up in Analysis-Paralysis land, however, it may be worth exploring other avenues — and maybe even something you’ve never thought of.

Enter bearish counter-trend options strategies. Yup, it sounds crazy, especially when the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh highs. But here’s the reality: a well-planned put strategy has the potential to generate some revenue while you wait for the market to slow down or pull back. I got the idea after watching a recent video that dives into these strategies (worth watching if you haven’t).

Finding an Optimal Options Strategy

If you click the OptionsPlay Strategy Center tab on your StockCharts Dashboard (OptionsPlay Add-On for StockCharts required), choose the Bearish Counter Trend or Bullish Counter Trend categories (depending on whether the market is bullish or bearish), and then select the Bear Put Spread strategy, you’ll see all the stocks that meet the criteria. Since stocks are in a bullish trajectory, I decided to look at stocks in the Bearish Counter Trend list. I also chose the 45-day timeframe, a balanced risk profile, and $2,500 max risk. I sorted the list based on IV rank. Walt Disney Co. (DIS) made it to the top of the list.

A couple of points to consider:

• A risk/reward ratio of 0.6 to 1
• Disney’s earnings date of August 6, which falls before the spread expires.

However, looking through the other charts on the list, DIS appeared to be the most likely to pull back in the near term.

Here’s where the beauty of options comes into play. They’re extremely flexible, and you can tweak the strategies to give you a risk/reward that’s more desirable.

With that in mind, let’s dive into Disney’s stock chart and consider how low the stock could go.

Disney’s Daily Chart

Looking at the daily chart of DIS, the stock price has pulled back a bit, and momentum, although relatively high as indicated by the relative strength index (RSI) and percentage price oscillator (PPO), is showing signs of slowing down. If momentum continues to weaken, DIS could move lower and fall to around the $120 level (dashed blue horizontal line).

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF DISNEY STOCK. DIS has been rising after its early May gap up. It’s now pulling back, and Disney’s stock price closed today at $122.98.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The Put Spread Can Bring a Little Magic

If you click the Options tab below the chart, you’ll see three strategies you could apply. Since I have a bearish bias, I clicked the Bearish button. The three optimized strategies that came up:

•  Sell 100 shares of DIS.
• Buy one DIS put.
• Buy a put vertical. The put vertical has the highest OptionsPlay score and is the one that aligns with the bearish counter-trend strategy.

Looking at the risk curve for the put spread — buying 1 Aug 15 125 put and selling 1 Aug 15 110 put (see below) — you’re risking $471 for a potential reward of $1029. This is slightly better than a 0.6 to 1 risk/reward ratio. The breakeven level is $120.29, which aligns with the support level on the price chart. I would consider placing this trade.

FIGURE 2: RISK CURVES FOR THREE OPTIMAL STRATEGIES FOR TRADING DIS STOCK. The put vertical spread has the best score, defined-risk, and an attractive payoff.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Final Thoughts

Options are dynamic, and if you decide to put on the trade, monitor your open positions regularly. With options, it’s not just about price. Time decay and volatility can change the premiums. If these variables change significantly, consider adjusting your trade.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Roblox Corporation (RBLX), the company behind the immersive online gaming universe, has been on a strong run since April. This isn’t the first time the stock demonstrated sustained technical strength: RBLX has maintained a StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) above 90, aside from a few dips, since last November.

Currently, RBLX is showing up on a few scans that may signal an opportunity for those who are bullish on the stock. It currently ranks among the SCTR Report Top 10, but also appeared on a few cautionary scans, including the Parabolic SAR Sell Signals and Overbought with a Declining RSI scans (both of which are available in the StockCharts Sample Scan Library).

So here’s the question: Is RBLX a strong stock that’s about to undergo a buyable dip?

Weekly Chart: Key Breakout and Resistance Levels

Before we explore that question, let’s take a look at a weekly chart for a broader perspective.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF RBLX. The stock is barely above halfway between its three-year lows and highs. If it delivers the growth investors expect, you could see another leg higher once the pullback completes.

The weekly chart shows RBLX trading in a broad range from late 2022 to late 2024, repeatedly failing to clear resistance near $47–$48. When it finally broke out in November, the stock’s technical strength was reflected in its SCTR score, which held a sustained position above the 90 line save a few declines.

Breaking above the $47–$48 resistance was a key move, as that level turned into support in December and again in April, where RBLX established a base ahead of its current rally. The subsequent move up was sharp, arguably even parabolic, peaking at $106.17 before pulling back.

If you look closely, you’ll see a swing high at around the $125 level (December 2022). This marks a technical level that happens to align with several Wall Street price targets. The blue line at $140 marks RBLX’s all-time high. Both levels can serve as potential price targets and are also likely to act as resistance.

RBLX is a technically strong stock that is fundamentally robust, despite remaining unprofitable on a GAAP basis. With strong user engagement, accelerating revenue growth, and plenty of free cash flow, it’s a favorable growth stock. However, it’s overbought. So, for those looking to get in, what are the key levels to watch out for?

Daily Chart: Fixed and Dynamic Support Levels to Watch

Let’s shift over to a daily chart.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF RBLX. Although the stock is currently overbought, there are plenty of support levels below. If you’re bullish on the stock, now’s the time to add RBLX to your ChartLists and set price alerts.

The strength of RBLX’s current surge is highlighted by the Bollinger Bands. The stock has been “walking the band” over the past two months. Now that it has pulled back, it appears to be bouncing off the middle band, suggesting that investors are still accumulating the stock.

As far as the pullback is concerned, the Money Flow Index (MFI), a volume-weighted Relative Strength Index (RSI), shows that RBLX entered overbought territory in May and began declining in late June, revealing a divergence between MFI and price—an early signal that RBLX was about to pull back. That pullback materialized on Tuesday. Whether it continues in the coming sessions is something we’ll have to see. In contrast, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a measure of volume-based momentum, suggests that buying pressure is still relatively strong.

Whether RBLX continues advancing or pulls back in the near term, keep an eye on the Bollinger Bands for potential support. You may also encounter a bounce and favorable entry point at $92.50, a “local” swing low.

Another stronger support level sits near $75, aligning with the February and April swing highs. HOWEVER, that’s a huge drop; if the price falls toward this level, you’d have to reevaluate the stock’s momentum, volume, market sentiment, and the broader economic factors that may be driving such a decline.

When to Consider Entering RBLX

If you’re bullish on the stock, RBLX is something you’ll want to monitor in the days ahead. Add it to your ChartLists and observe how it acts within the context of the Bollinger Bands. If the stock declines further, you may want to set a price alert at $92.50 to see how price responds to this recent swing low. As mentioned above, further declines would warrant a re-evaluation, so keep a close eye on the price action.

Is Roblox Stock Still a Buy?

RBLX’s surge reflects growing optimism about the company’s future growth prospects. While it isn’t profitable yet by GAAP standards, its strong performance relative to analyst expectations and its strong free cash flow have made it something of a Wall Street darling. For now, the technicals are the proof in the pudding. If it is what growth investors seek, the price action should provide evidence before the fundamentals validate it in the coming earnings quarters.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Joe presents a deep dive into MACD crossovers, demonstrating how to use them effectively across multiple timeframes, establish directional bias, and improve trade timing. He explains why price action should confirm indicator signals, sharing how to identify “pinch plays” and zero-line reversals for higher-quality setups. Joe then analyzes a wide range of stocks and ETFs, from QQQ and IWM to Nvidia, Tesla, Palantir, and Reddit; he highlights the importance of momentum, relative strength, and ADX in spotting potential reversals or breakouts. This video is a must-see for traders looking to sharpen their multi-timeframe analysis.

The video premiered on July 2, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

This week, Frank analyzes recent technical signals from the S&P 500, including overbought RSI levels, key price target completions, and the breakout potential of long-term bullish patterns. He examines past market breakouts and trend shifts, showing how overbought conditions historically play out. Frank also walks through a compelling mean-reversion trade idea in Apple, emphasizing its lagging performance and potential rebound based on past patterns.

This video originally premiered on July 2, 2025.

You can view previously recorded videos from Frank and other industry experts at this link.

Join Grayson for a solo show as he reveals his top 10 stock charts to watch this month. From breakout strategies to moving average setups, he walks through technical analysis techniques using relative strength, momentum, and trend-following indicators. As a viewer, you’ll also gain insight into key market trends and chart patterns that could directly impact your trading strategy. Whether you’re a short-term trader or a long-term investor, this breakdown will help you stay one step ahead.

This video originally premiered on July 1, 2025. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.

S&P 500 earnings are in for 2025 Q1, and here is our valuation analysis.

The following chart shows the normal value range of the S&P 500 Index, indicating where the S&P 500 would have to be in order to have an overvalued P/E of 20 (red line), a fairly valued P/E of 15 (blue line), or an undervalued P/E of 10 (green line). Annotations on the right side of the chart show where the range is projected to be, based upon earnings estimates through 2026 Q1.

Historically, price has usually remained below the top of the normal value range (red line); however, since about 1998, it has not been uncommon for price to exceed normal overvalue levels, sometimes by a lot. The market has been mostly overvalued since 1992, and it has not been undervalued since 1984. We could say that this is the “new normal,” except that it isn’t normal by GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) standards.

We use GAAP earnings as the basis for our analysis. The table below shows earnings projections through March 2026. Keep in mind that the P/E estimates are calculated based upon the S&P 500 close as of June 30, 2025. They will change daily depending on where the market goes from here. It is notable that the P/E remains outside the normal range.

The following table shows where the bands are projected be, based upon earnings estimates through 2026 Q1.

This DecisionPoint chart keeps track of S&P 500 fundamentals, P/E and yield, and it is updated daily — not that you need to watch it that closely, but it is up-to-date when you need it.

CONCLUSION: The market is still very overvalued and the P/E is still well above the normal range. Earnings have ticked up and are projected to trend higher for the next four quarters. High valuation applies negative pressure on the market, but other more positive factors can keep the market in overvalued territory.

(c) Copyright 2025 DecisionPoint.com

Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.