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If the Department of Justice (DOJ) wanted to release every Jeffrey Epstein-related document they had on file, they had the firepower to do so, a former assistant U.S. attorney argued.

The DOJ has faced bipartisan criticism over its initial release of heavily redacted Epstein files, which lawmakers argue fell short of the requirements of a recently passed transparency law.

‘The Department of Justice has all the resources in the world, right? I mean if they wanted to put 1,000 lawyers on this to review the documents and get them ready for the production, they could have,’ Sarah Krissoff said.

‘And they don’t appear to have done that,’ she added.

The DOJ did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Krissoff, who worked as a prosecutor for almost 14 years in the Southern District of New York, described key differences between the Epstein Files and the normal redaction process that attorneys grapple with. Those distinctions make it unclear who would have had final say about the information the DOJ released on Friday as the agency attempted to follow through on the requirements laid out by the Epstein Files Transparency Act. 

That law, passed by Congress last month and signed by President Donald Trump on Nov. 19, gave the DOJ just 30 days to make its documentation of Epstein public. It included some exceptions for protecting the identity of victims.

Despite the thousands of files that became publicly available at the end of last week, the DOJ’s first trove sparked criticism from some lawmakers and viewers online outraged that the department hadn’t released them all at once.

‘They are hiding a lot of documents. That would be very helpful in our investigation,’ Rep. Suhas Subramanyam, D-Va., a member of the House Oversight Committee, told CNN on Monday morning. 

Although she remains skeptical of the department’s effort, Krissoff noted that what the DOJ’s been asked to do goes far outside the norm for disclosures.

‘There is no real mechanism in the law that the public can just access documents because they’re interested in them, right? In this case, this law is requiring the DOJ to make these things public because so many members of Congress are interested in this issue,’ Krissoff said.

In the cases she’s been a part of, Krissoff said redactions usually came down to meticulous negotiations between the prosecution and the defense. Sometimes deliberations drilled into individual sentences or words.

‘This situation is a little different because it’s unclear, you know, who is still working on this from the original case team. And so, the question is: who at the Department of Justice reviewed these in connection with the redactions here?’ Krissoff said.

She said whole case files rarely get released to the public beyond what shows up in court filings — and what’s there usually serves the narrow purposes of the prosecution. In Epstein’s case, the public’s interests extend beyond any potential conviction of Epstein himself. Epstein died in 2019 while incarcerated on suspicion of sex-trafficking minors. His death, ruled a suicide, cut short his prosecution and left behind questions about whether he facilitated illegal sexual encounters for his vast social network. 

Photos released by the DOJ last week lack context and do not, on their own, implicate anyone depicted in them of wrongdoing. 

‘The case file often implicates many other people that are not charged in the crimes. So, there may be 15 people charged in a drug ring. You’ve only charged one or two people; you don’t want to impugn those other people who have not been charged by releasing information showing their involvement in this drug ring,’ Krissoff said.

‘The last thing you want to do is put that neighbor’s information or his name or even his statement out there,’ Krissoff said.

She believes that there’s a danger in forcing disclosure of an ongoing case simply because of great public interest and setting a precedent for that to become a regular occurrence. In her view, it could disrupt ongoing investigations of the future that draw intense public interest.

The DOJ said it will continue to release its documents on Epstein on a rolling basis. It has not announced when they expect to continue their release of the Epstein files.


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For Americans wondering about the future of China and its relationship with the West, the latest verdict in the Jimmy Lai case proves an ominous harbinger of Hong Kong’s continued slide towards authoritarianism. Lai, the self-made billionaire, media entrepreneur and pro-democracy activist, has been held prisoner of the Chinese Communist Party for five years under Hong Kong’s National Security Law. He was finally convicted Dec. 14 on trumped-up charges of sedition.    

This verdict, handed down in 855 pages of meaningless gobbledygook, is Lai’s second conviction during his state-sponsored persecution since Hong Kong’s 2019 pro-democracy protests. Lai was previously found guilty of lease violations in connection with Apple Daily, his popular former newspaper that was closed by the Chinese government in 2021, and sentenced to 69 months in prison. The latest charges, for which Lai will be sentenced in early January, carry a penalty of 10 years to life in prison.   

Of course, these nuances and timelines are meaningless; Lai has been imprisoned since December 2020, with his case delayed, extended, postponed, appealed and otherwise stage-managed in accordance with the wishes of the CCP. Lai was also denied the lawyers of his choice. Hong Kong will likely throw the book at him in January, and Lai – already in failing health due to the apparently inhumane conditions of his solitary confinement – will face eventual death in prison. It’s a grim birthday present for Lai, who turned 78 recently.  

How did we get here? Lai knows why, describing himself as a ‘troublemaker, but one with a good conscience.’ ‘The establishment hates my guts,’ Lai says, and you’d have to say he’s earned that hatred from a leadership in Beijing and now Hong Kong that doesn’t tolerate dissent. Having participated in Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protests in 2019, supported the Umbrella Movement in 2014, and expressed public concern in the aftermath of 1989’s Tiananmen Square massacre, Lai has long been a thorn in the side of the CCP.   

Lai’s irreverent, pro-free-speech publications, Apple Daily and Next Magazine, frequently reported unwelcome facts, challenged the status quo and asked hard questions of Chinese officialdom amid growing state censorship. It was Lai’s courageous, decades-long commitment to democratic values that led my organization, The Fund for American Studies, to honor him in 2022 with the Kenneth Y. Tomlinson Award for Courageous Journalism.

Among all his causes, Lai’s most dear was the protection of his adopted city, Hong Kong. Having escaped there as a child after growing up in 1950s mainland China, Lai knew firsthand that Communist regimes deprive their people of fundamental freedoms. Despite China’s treaty agreement with the U.K. and the CCP’s ‘one country, two systems’ commitment, which guaranteed Hong Kong’s autonomy until at least 2047, Lai foresaw that the CCP would accelerate its ultimate takeover of Hong Kong.   

The mainland’s creeping authoritarianism is why my organization ended its program at the University of Hong Kong after 2019. We foresaw the coming crackdown in Hong Kong, and this week’s verdict is one more nail in the coffin of Hong Kong’s once internationally respected legal system. In a chilling coincidence, Hong Kong’s Democratic Party, the city’s largest opposition group, also voted to disband on the eve of the verdict. Unfortunately, our worries (and Lai’s) about Hong Kong’s future have been proven true.

Palantir official warns of ‘new Cold War’ with China amid tense AI race

Where do we go from here? First, Western leaders must continue to seek Lai’s release on humanitarian grounds. U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer plans to visit China next month, and his government has said that freeing Lai (who is a British citizen) is a priority. This week, President Donald Trump also asked Chinese leader Xi Jinping to free Lai. With Lai’s formal conviction now public, it may open up space for a diplomatic resolution. Now is the time to ramp up the pressure for his release.  

Second, the West must remain vigilant in the face of China’s continued belligerence toward its neighbors and its suppression of values such as freedom of speech, religious liberty and press freedom. These are values under siege worldwide. Journalists, religious figures and democracy advocates have been killed or imprisoned for exercising these rights. Jimmy Lai is an example of incredible bravery and commitment to democratic values, but his imprisonment is also a sobering warning of the dangers of authoritarianism.  


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“Was the government to prescribe to us our medicine and diet, our bodies would be in such keeping as our souls are now.” -Thomas Jefferson

Let me introduce you to Sam. Sam has obesity, Type 2 diabetes, heart disease, and high blood pressure. His diet consists mostly of refined grains and trans fats. He’s got cabinets full of dirt-cheap junk food and sky-high healthcare costs to address its effects. He takes home $27,000 a year, but spends $36,000. He’s in debt up to his jaundiced eyeballs, and he wants his niece to foot the bill for weight-loss medication.

As a real-life niece of my Uncle Sam, I’m concerned about his diet. Some 56.2 percent of the daily calories consumed by US adults come from federally subsidized food commodities: corn, soybeans, wheat, rice, sorghum, dairy, and livestock. While these calorie-dense foods once made sense for a government preparing for famine or total war, in recent decades they’ve instead helped make us fatter and sicker. 

Obesity is a top driver of healthcare costs. One study compared the health of people who eat mostly foods the federal government subsidizes to those who eat fewer. Those who follow the revealed preferences of what the government subsidizes (rather than the diet it consciously recommends) are almost 40 percent more likely to be obese and face significant diet-related health issues. Those with the highest consumption of federally subsidized foods also have significantly higher rates of belly fat, abnormal cholesterol, high levels of blood sugar, and more markers of chronic inflammation. All these are increasing contributors to the most common causes of death in the developed world.

The negative impact of subsidized crop consumption on health — while it can’t be called causal — persists even after controlling for age, sex, and socioeconomic factors. But life does not control for those factors.

The Great Grain Giveaway

The federal government recommends one diet to Americans, and subsidizes another. The Dietary Guidelines for Americans from the USDA and HHS promote eating fruits, vegetables, whole grains, protein, and moderate dairy, while limiting saturated fats, sugars, salt, and refined grains. According to data compiled for Meatonomics, American agribusiness receives about $38 billion annually in federal funding, with only 0.4 percent ($17 million) going to fruits and vegetables. Just three percent of cropland is devoted to fruits and vegetables, despite USDA guidelines’ insistence that they should cover half of your dinner plate. Just 10 percent of Americans consume the recommended amount of fresh produce, and the poor consume the least. (Fruit and vegetable producers’ exclusion from the federal direct payments program provides a valuable example of a food industry thriving without significant subsidies. They do, however, rely heavily on migrant labor to lower costs.)

Instead, the US spends tens of billions annually to subsidize seven major commodities. The three largest farm subsidy programs contribute 70 percent of funds to producers of just three crops — corn, soybeans, and wheat. Approximately 30-40 percent of US corn, over half of soybeans, and nearly all sorghum feed livestock, heavily discounting high-fat, lower-nutrition meat and dairy (especially compared to grass-fed options). The prevalence of grain-fed livestock generates demand for commodities used to feed them, completing the circle. 

Subsidies also contribute to our consumption of refined grains, sugary drinks, and processed foods. About five percent of corn becomes artificially cheap high-fructose corn syrup (which allows it to compete with tariffed natural sugars), and half of soybeans are processed into oils, which also contribute to obesity.

My Uncle Sam is sick because he eats the food the government makes artificially more affordable. Those foods are poorer in quality and more harmful to health than their unsubsidized alternatives. We are paying to make ourselves sicker.

Diet-Related Health Issues Fuel Healthcare Costs

For more than 20 years, the FDA has known that trans fats and refined grains harm health, damage metabolism, and cause disease. Diet-related illnesses like obesity, Type 2 diabetes, and high blood pressure are increasing, while heart disease remains the leading cause of death. These epidemics are intertwined at the artery level, and both contribute hugely to rising US health care costs.

In an economic order awash with subsidies and regulation, agricultural policy is health policy. Government subsidies for agricultural products have shaped the current American nutritional environment, and they are exacerbating obesity trends.

An article in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine confirms: “Current agricultural policy remains largely uninformed by public health discourse.”

Johns Hopkins physician (and current Commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration) Marty Makary called out the disconnect clearly. “Half of all federal spending is going to health care in its many hidden forms,” he told an interviewer in October, but Americans continue “getting sicker and sicker… Chronic diseases are on the rise. Cancers are on the rise. And we have the most medicated generation in human history.”

We’re getting more medicated every day — and more of it is at taxpayer expense. 

A Better Answer Than Ozempic?

Government spending on healthcare now exceeds the entire discretionary budget. Excess weight is a significant risk for older Americans, who are also the most likely to both have high healthcare costs and to rely on government health care. Forty percent of Americans over 60 are classified as having obesity, which is a contributing or complicating factor in diseases that kill older Americans: cancers, heart disease, infection, stroke, and cirrhosis.

Late last year, the Food and Drug Administration approved the weight-loss drug Wegovy as a treatment for people at risk of heart attack or stroke. Medicare is forbidden by statute from covering prescription drugs for weight loss alone, but in 2021 regulators approved Wegovy for reducing weight-related risks in patients with diabetes. Medicare Part D plans spent $2.6 billion last year on related compound Ozempic to keep 500,000 patients with diabetes stable. Wegovy’s list price is around $1,300 per month, but that’s still small compared to the $1.4 trillion Americans spend on direct and indirect costs from obesity.

It has a certain economic logic. Instead of waiting for a patient to develop a cascade of expensive comorbidities like heart failure or diabetes, we could consider asking Medicare to pay for anti-obesity meds on the front end. That wouldn’t work as well as lifestyle changes, but all our health and activity messaging over the past several years doesn’t seem to have moved that needle, and significant evidence suggests our efforts are counterproductive. 

The Tangled Web of Farm Subsidies

To understand the insanity of American agricultural and health policy, it’s hard to do better than comedian-illusionists Penn & Teller, who in characteristically salty style (really — you’ll want headphones and a sense of humor to watch the video) explained it this way 15 years ago: 

High fructose corn syrup is a dirt-cheap way to add sweetener and extend shelf life. And why is it so cheap? Because we subsidize corn farmers! Our government gives about 10 billion of our tax dollars to corn farmers every year so they can produce more corn than we need. They then sell the corn at artificially low prices. They spend our money to make corn syrup cheap, and now the same government that uses our tax money to keep soft drinks cheap wants more of our tax money to make soft drinks more expensive. Does anyone else think this is incredibly f—d up?

Yes, Penn. We do. And since that clip aired, obesity rates have worsened 50 percent, and rose 78 percent in children. Medical spending on the consequences of obesity doubled. Over the same period, subsidies to corn growers (which includes disaster aid and insurance) have tripled. 

Rather than cut back on his terrible diet, Uncle Sam wants us to pony up for weight loss drugs — to undo what our food policy has done.

Over the five years since the COVID pandemic, the AIER Year End Holiday Index has climbed by an average of about 3.8 percent per year, resulting in a total increase of just under 21 percent. In the preceding five-year period from 2015 to 2020, the index rose only slightly — just over 2.7 percent in total — equivalent to an average annual gain of about 0.5 percent.

(Source: Bloomberg Finance, LP. Data subject to shutdown limitations.)

Our proprietary HDAY Index captures price movements across a broad basket of holiday-relevant goods and services, including apparel, toys, books, software, jewelry, pet and personal care items, gift-wrapping materials, postage and shipping, alcohol, confectionery, houseplants, and movie tickets. The table below presents both the average annual rate of change and the cumulative price increase for the five years preceding the pandemic and the five years that followed. These results are shown alongside changes in the Employment Cost Index as well as key holiday travel expenses over the same periods, including airfare and gasoline.

Avg Annual ChangeAvg Annual ChangeTotal ChangeTotal Change
Category(2015-2020)(2020-2025)(2015-2020)(2020-2025)
HDAY Index0.68%4.17%3.46%22.64%
ECI Index2.56%4.10%13.48%22.28%
Airfare-6.41%5.50%-28.18%30.70%
Gasoline (average)-0.87%7.60%-4.28%44.23%

Since the end of 2019, the HDAY Index reveals an increase of over 18 percent in the prices of selected goods and services. And as is shown below, every category other than recreational books and toys has surged in price. Notable increases over the past half-decade have occurred in categories most closely associated with Christmas, Hanukkah, and other end-of-year festivities: postage and delivery services, stationery and gift wrapping, confectionary, and indoor plants and flowers. 

Avg Annual ChangeAvg Annual ChangeTotal ChangeTotal Change
Category(2015-2020)(2020-2025)(2015-2020)(2020-2025)
Sugar and Sweets0.92%6.44%4.68%35.26%
Women’s and Girls Apparel-2.35%2.33%-11.23%12.30%
Men’s and Boys Apparel-0.98%3.42%-4.79%18.47%
Toys-8.18%-0.74%-34.21%-3.66%
Recreational Books-0.97%-0.01%-4.74%-0.05%
Pets, Pet Products, and Services1.26%4.71%6.42%25.85%
Postage and Delivery Services2.97%4.22%15.74%23.03%
Jewelry and Watches0.27%2.01%1.38%10.50%
Indoor Plants and Flowers0.93%4.97%4.74%27.51%
Haircuts and Other Personal Care Services2.83%4.82%15.03%26.48%
Cakes, Cupcakes, and Cookies1.05%5.68%5.39%31.25%
Alcoholic Beverages At Home1.48%2.24%7.64%11.74%
Stationery, Stationery Supplies, Gift Wrap-0.20%6.44%-1.02%36.63%

As the 2025 holiday shopping season unfolds, several Christmas-related prices have climbed noticeably, reflecting broader inflationary pressures and lingering effects from tariffs on imported goods. One of the most visible examples is in artificial Christmas trees, where higher import costs have pushed retail prices up by roughly 10–15 percent this year, affecting a staple purchase for many American households. The tariff-driven increase represents a meaningful rise against the backdrop of generally elevated seasonal costs. In addition, a growing number of consumers and small retailers have reported higher prices on holiday decorations and gift items, including ornaments and novelty gifts, with some toys and decorative goods seeing wholesale cost increases in the range of 5 to 20 percent, which retailers in turn are passing on to shoppers. Those trends, in turn, are contributing to heightened consumer awareness of ongoing inflationary pressures as gift budgets tighten and shoppers adjust their purchases. 

One hopes that consumers increasingly recognize these affordability strains as the cumulative result of the past five years of extraordinary monetary and fiscal expansion, pandemic-era interventionism, global spending largesse, and a sudden shift toward mercantilist trade policies.

The Federal Communications Commission announced on Monday that it would ban new foreign-made drones, citing national security concerns.

The FCC said it was adding uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) and their critical components made in China and other foreign countries to its ‘covered list’ that features equipment that has been determined to pose an ‘unacceptable risk’ to U.S. national security and the safety of Americans. Specific drones or components would be exempt if the Pentagon or Department of Homeland Security determined they did not pose such risks.

The distinction prohibits the products from being sold or imported in the U.S. The order does not apply to technology that has already been sold in the U.S.

The agency said that allowing foreign-made UAS and component parts to be sold in the U.S. ‘undermines the resiliency of our UAS industrial base, increases the risk to our national airspace, and creates a potential for large-scale attacks during large gatherings,’ citing upcoming events such as the 2026 World Cup and the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles.

‘Criminals, terrorists, and hostile foreign actors have intensified their weaponization of these technologies, creating new and serious threats to our homeland,’ the FCC said in its notice.

The announcement comes a year after a defense bill was adopted that raised national security concerns about Chinese-made drones, which have been used in farming, mapping, law enforcement and filmmaking.

The bill called for stopping two Chinese companies — DJI and Autel — from selling new drones in the U.S. if a review found they posed a risk to U.S. national security.

A spokesperson for DJI said in a statement that it is ‘disappointed’ by the FCC’s decision and that ‘no information has been released regarding what information was used’ in the government’s determination to add its drones and component parts to the covered list.

‘Concerns about DJI’s data security have not been grounded in evidence and instead reflect protectionism, contrary to the principles of an open market,’ the statement said.

The House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party praised the FCC’s move, saying it ‘strongly supports’ the decision.

‘It will help safeguard our national security, protect the American people, and wind down the unacceptable national security threat posed by DJI and other Chinese drones,’ the committee wrote on X.

‘Taken together with the Administration’s recent executive actions to accelerate domestic drone commercialization, this sends an unmistakable signal to American industry: The U.S. is open for drone innovation—and American manufacturing will be rewarded,’ it added.

Arthur Erickson, chief executive officer and co-founder of the Texas-based drone-making company Hylio, told The Associated Press that the departure of DJI would provide more opportunity for American companies like his to grow. He said new investments are coming in to help him boost production of spray drones, which farmers use to fertilize their fields, and it will bring down prices.

But Erickson also called it ‘crazy’ and ‘unexpected’ that the FCC would expand the restrictions to all foreign-made drones and their components.

‘The way it’s written is a blanket statement,’ Erickson said. ‘There’s a global-allied supply chain. I hope they will clarify that.’

The Associated Press contributed to this report.


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The Department of War announced Monday that the Pentagon is partnering with Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence (AI) ecosystem to deploy Grok across its government systems.

The agency said the ‘frontier‑grade’ capabilities of xAI’s Grok family of models will be integrated into the department’s recently launched AI platform, GenAI.mil

As soon as early 2026, the partnership will allow the Department’s 3 million military and civilian personnel to safely access more advanced AI tools for everyday tasks, including handling sensitive government information.

According to xAI, its tools can support administrative tasks at the federal, state and local levels, as well as ‘critical mission use cases’ at the front line of military operations.

‘Today, the War Department officially entered into an agreement with xAI, paving the way for the deployment of its advanced capabilities on GenAI.mil,’ the department said. ‘This move builds on the rapid deployment of cutting‑edge AI across the Department’s 3 million military and civilian personnel.’

The tools will allow employees to use xAI safely on secure government systems for routine work, including tasks involving sensitive but unclassified information, without violating security protocols.

With xAI designed to analyze real-time data, the War Department said the partnership would give personnel ‘a decisive information advantage.’ 

Grok will give personnel access to live information from X, providing the War Department with faster situational awareness around the globe, the department said.

xAI added that the partnership could lead to potential future classified workloads. 

‘Through an ongoing, long-term partnership with the DoW and other mission partners, xAI will make available a family of government-optimized foundation models to support classified operational workloads,’ the company said.

The War Department said that it will continue to scale its AI ecosystem for speed, security and decision superiority.

‘This announcement marks another milestone in America’s AI revolution, and the War Department is driving that momentum forward,’ the department said. 

‘These two new partnerships are part of our longstanding support of the United States Government and xAI’s mission to bring the best tools and technologies available in industry to benefit our nation,’ xAI added.

The collaboration marks another chapter in Elon Musk’s long-running relationship with government initiatives.  

Musk previously helped lead the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency, where he briefly reformed operations and cut excess spending within the federal government. 


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Nickel prices were stagnant in 2025, trading around US$15,000 per metric ton (MT) for much of the year.

The metal’s primary price motivation stemmed from persistent oversupply from Indonesian operations.

Overall, sentiment remained weak amid soft demand growth from the construction and manufacturing sectors, and declining interest in nickel as electric vehicle (EV) battery makers began to eye cheaper chemistries.

Nickel supply in 2026

The big question going into the new year is if nickel supply and demand will come into balance.

The most significant contributing factor over the last several years has been an abundance of supply from Indonesia, which has become the world’s top nickel producer.

The US Geological Survey estimates that full-year 2024 nickel production came in at 2.2 million MT, a staggering increase over the 800,000 MT it believes the nation produced in 2019.

In February 2025, the Indonesian government changed its quota system, effectively increasing nickel ore output to 298.5 million wet metric tons (WMT) from 271 million WMT in 2024. At the time, it said the increased production capacity was being limited to major production areas and was designed to reduce supply pressures.

The increase helped drive the amount of nickel sitting in exchange warehouses. Stockpiles at the London Metal Exchange (LME) had risen to 254,364 MT by the end of November, up from 164,028 MT at the start of 2025.

Meanwhile, the nickel price sank to US$14,295, toward the lower end of profitability for low-cost Indonesian miners.

The profitability question has raised the possibility of cuts — according to Shanghai Metal Market, the Indonesian government is proposing to cut nickel ore output to around 250 million MT in 2026. If the reduction comes to pass, it would mark a significant decline from the 379 million WMT laid out by Indonesia in 2025. Discussions on the final amount are ongoing, and the outlet states that it will be some time before the target is finalized.

“The global market is still forecast to remain in surplus — around 261,000 MT in 2026 — so further cuts would need to be significant to alter fundamentals,” she explained.

Additionally, there could be a wait-and-see approach as other new policies adopted by the Indonesian government in 2025 begin to take hold. The first, introduced in April, saw a shift from a flat 10 percent royalty to a more dynamic rate of 14 to 18 percent, depending on nickel prices. The second came in October, when the government cut the validity period of mining licenses from three years to one, providing the government greater oversight of production levels.

These prices, however, aren’t supportive of western producers, which began curtailing operations in 2024 when the LME average price was US$16,812 and reached US$21,000 in May of that year.

For her part, Manthy suggested that to get back to that range, there needs to be a more coordinated approach to constraining supply, and it may not make an immediate difference.

“To push prices to that range, cuts would need to be deep enough to erase most of the projected surplus. Given the scale — hundreds of thousands of MT — this seems unlikely without coordinated action. Even then, investor sentiment would probably require sustained prices above US$20,000 to materially improve producer attractiveness,” she said.

Nickel demand in 2026

The challenges faced by nickel go beyond oversupply; demand growth for the base metal is also soft.

Nickel’s primary use case is in the production of stainless steel, much of it destined for the Chinese housing market, which has yet to recover from its collapse in 2020.

While the Chinese government tried to stabilize the market in 2024 and earlier in 2025, it has done little to reverse the downward trend. According to a CNBC report on December 2, November sales were down 36 percent from the same period in 2024, and declined 19 percent through the first 11 months of the year.

“China’s property sector weakness has weighed on stainless steel demand, which accounts for over 60 percent of global nickel consumption. Even with broader economic growth, this stagnation has kept nickel prices subdued. A property turnaround would help, but given the surplus outlook, price upside would likely be limited,” Manthey said.

Adding to nickel’s woes is soft growth from the EV market.

Much of the increase in nickel production over the last five years was to fuel the need for EV batteries, but more recently producers like Contemporary Amperex Technology (SZSE:300750,HKEX:3750), one of the world’s largest battery makers, have shifted chemistry to lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP).

Nickel-manganese-cobalt batteries had been seen as superior due to their higher energy density and longer range. But recent advances in LFP technology have erased that gap, with vehicles using the chemistry achieving ranges of over 750 kilometers. Additionally, LFP batteries are cheaper to produce and less volatile, making them safer.

According to a December 1 Reuters article, nickel battery demand rose 1 percent year-on-year in September, while LFP battery demand increased 7 percent. However, the news outlet notes that most of the nickel demand was likely driven more by a rapidly growing EV market than by the benefits of its chemistry.

Although Reuters also notes that nickel chemistry remains the dominant battery technology in western EV markets, that too comes with a caveat, especially in the US, where the elimination of the EV tax credit in September has cratered EV demand. While US EV sales reached a record 1.2 million through the first nine months of 2025, much of that was driven by consumers seeking to take advantage of the US$7,500 credit before it expired.

Early data from Cox Automotive analysis indicates that American EV sales are down 46 percent in Q4 from the third quarter, and 37 percent from the same period last year.

Against that backdrop, Ford Motor (NASDAQ:F) has scaled back its EV plans, taking a US$19.5 billion writedown, and will pivot to extended-range EVs — which use gas-powered engines to augment range — and hybrid cars. Similarly, in mid-December, the EU dropped its plans to ban the sale of all internal combustion engine light vehicles by 2035.

These policy changes likely aren’t good news for nickel watchers.

“Any slowdown in energy transition policies adds to bearish sentiment for battery metals, including nickel,” Manthey said.

Nickel price forecast for 2026

Manthey suggested that nickel prices will remain under pressure throughout 2026.

“We expect prices to struggle to hold above US$16,000 given the surplus. Upside risks hinge on unexpected supply disruptions or stronger-than-forecast stainless and battery demand, but sustained levels above US$19,000 look unlikely under current fundamentals. We see prices averaging US$15,250 in 2026,” she said.

That’s in line with the World Bank’s 2026 nickel price outlook of US$15,500, rising to US$16,000 in 2027.

The primary reason for these projections is the ongoing nickel market surplus.

While it didn’t make a price prediction, Russia’s Nornickel, one of the world’s largest nickel producers, suggests that the market will see a surplus of 275,000 MT of refined nickel in 2026.

Low prices will be a challenge for nickel producers and investors alike. Until there is a shift in market fundamentals, a rebound for nickel doesn’t appear to be in the cards in the short or even medium term.

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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The global lithium market endured a bruising 2025, with persistent oversupply and softer-than-expected electric vehicle (EV) demand driving prices for the battery metal to multi-year lows.

Lithium carbonate prices in North Asia slipped below US$9,550 per metric ton in February — their weakest level since 2021 — triggering production cuts and project delays, particularly in Australia and China. Despite brief rallies later in the year, prices remained under pressure, reflecting a market struggling to absorb rapid supply growth.

That imbalance has been years in the making. Global lithium carbonate output surged 192 percent between 2020 and 2024 while demand lagged, leaving the market with a large surplus.

Analysts estimate that supply exceeded demand by more than 150,000 metric tons in both 2023 and 2024, with inventories continuing to cap price recovery in 2025. Although the surplus is shrinking, high stockpiles have kept prices rangebound, with lithium carbonate largely hovering near US$10,000 for much of the year.

Volatility punctuated the lithium industry in the second half of 2025.

Prices rebounded sharply in July on supply cut speculation, briefly pushing lithium carbonate to an 11 month high above US$12,000 before retreating as producers denied meaningful reductions and inventories remained ample.

Policy uncertainty in the US, including threats to EV incentives, and regulatory signals from China further weighed on sentiment, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to both geopolitics and headlines.

Despite the prolonged downturn, analysts increasingly view 2025 as a potential inflection point. With roughly a third of global production estimated to be unprofitable at current prices, further supply rationalization appears likely.

Forecasts point to a sharply narrower surplus in 2025 and a possible deficit emerging in 2026, suggesting that while lithium’s near-term outlook remains constrained, the sector’s long-term fundamentals — driven by electrification, the energy transition and data-intensive technologies — remain intact.

Lithium in 2025: A tale of two markets

In contrast, the second half of 2025 saw a boost in prices across the lithium space as market fundamentals improved due to Contemporary Amperex Technology (SZSE:300750,HKEX:3750) curtailing operations at the Jianxiawo lepidolite mine in early August. Despite reports that Jianxiawo would restart operations in December, it is unclear if the mine, which is one of the world’s largest, is back in operation.

Concern over the removed supply pushed carbonate prices higher from mid-October through the end of the year, when they rose from US$10,417.37 to US$14,131.44, a 34 percent increase.

Battery energy storage demand key to lithium growth

Another trend Klein pointed to was the rapid growth in the battery energy storage system (BESS) market, which is expected to grow by 44 percent in 2025, representing a quarter of all battery demand.

“We’ve been talking about BESS being a very fast, growing and big part of the market, but it’s now become the consensus opinion that it’s very strong not only in China, but elsewhere,” said Klein.

Although BESS is one of the fastest-growing segments of the battery market, Klein believes its growth potential is not fully understood. “The market’s probably still underestimating that narrative about battery energy storage,” he said, adding that it is only now starting to be understood by people who are in the industry.

“But for the broader, generalist investor who still equates lithium with EVs, they don’t fully understand the battery energy storage angle, so I think they’re still underestimating that,” said Klein. The market is projected to balloon from US$13.7 billion in 2024 to US$43.4 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 21.3 percent.

Industry analysts expect BESS installations could expand from roughly 205 gigawatt-hours in 2024 to between 520 and 700 gigawatt-hours by 2030, driven by renewable integration, grid stability needs and declining costs.

While EVs have dominated the lithium narrative, Del Real said the real opportunity was “never just a play on EVs or hybrids — it was a play on grid storage, energy storage,” with cheaper battery cells unlocking faster adoption.

That mispricing has created a contrarian opportunity, he added, noting that lithium’s neglect over the past six months has rewarded patient investors. “It’s lonely in the forest sometimes,” Del Real said. But when sentiment turns, “the re-rating can be spectacularly profitable if you know how to play it.”

Lithium exploration budgets evaporate

Lithium exploration budgets were sharply reduced in 2025 as miners retrenched amid prolonged price weakness.

S&P Global’s 2025 corporate exploration strategies study shows that spending on lithium and other critical minerals exploration fell significantly, even as overall non-ferrous exploration dipped only slightly.

Lithium, which had previously broken the US$1 billion mark for exploration spending, saw its allocation cut as junior companies tightened their belts and delayed programs. Cuts were most pronounced in traditional exploration hubs such as Canada, Australia and the US, where weakened junior sectors hit budgets hardest; meanwhile, regions like Chile, Peru and Saudi Arabia recorded relative gains in broader exploration funding.

Lithium remains a structurally important exploration commodity despite a sharp pullback in spending, Kevin Murphy, director of metals and mining research at S&P Global, said during a December webinar.

Murphy described the metal’s rise over the past decade as a “lithium renaissance.”

Once “completely inconsequential for exploration,” lithium has become the third most explored commodity globally over the past five years, underscoring how central it has become to future-facing supply chains.

However, that momentum stalled in 2025 as ongoing price weakness forced a reset. Murphy said lithium exploration budgets were “absolutely gutted,” falling to roughly half of 2024 levels, a decline he described as expected given depressed prices and the completion of several late-stage programs that wrapped up in late 2024 and early 2025.

“The lithium price has been depressed for too long for the budgets to be resilient,” he said, framing the downturn as cyclical rather than structural.

Lithium stocks stage H2 rally

Speaking at this year’s Benchmark Week event in November, Sean Gilmartin, senior equity analyst at Bloomberg, explained that lithium equities staged a sharp rebound in H2 after years of underperformance.

After lagging broader materials and chemical indexes for much of the first half of the year, lithium stocks surged in the second half of the year, closely tracking rising spot prices.

“Over a three year window, lithium names were still very much lagging,” Gilmartin said, “but we’ve flipped the script in a few months. Year-to-date, we’re seeing on average 47 percent gains, closely aligned with spot markets.”

He attributed the turnaround to stronger-than-expected lithium demand, particularly from BESS, as well as supply curtailments in China, which have tightened the market.

Despite the rebound, he cautioned that volatility remains a defining feature of the lithium equities space.

“You need to have a long-term view, and you have to be very adherent to your thesis,” Gilmartin said, noting that the demand story remains intact and that fundamentals continue to support growth through 2026 and beyond.

Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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Lundin Mining (TSX:LUN,OTC Pink:LUNMF) has agreed to sell its Eagle mine and Humboldt mill in Michigan to Talon Metals (TSX:TLO,OTCID:TLOFF), pivoting its US-based operations to focus on domestic supply.

The transaction will see Lundin Mining receive 275.2 million Talon shares, representing 18.4 percent of Talon’s outstanding equity, with a total implied value of approximately US$83.7 million based on recent trading prices.

Following the deal, Lundin Mining’s stake in Talon will rise to 19.99 percent.

The Eagle mine, acquired by Lundin Mining in 2013, has produced more than 194,000 metric tons of nickel and 185,000 metric tons of copper. It had generated over US$3.2 billion in revenue as of the third quarter of 2025.

The strategic rationale for the deal centers on consolidating US nickel-copper assets under a single operator, while allowing Lundin Mining to concentrate on its larger-scale copper operations in Brazil and Chile.

Talon will operate the Eagle mine and Humboldt mill while adding new exploration opportunities, including the Tamarack project and its newly discovered Vault zone. Discovered through recent drilling, Vault features 47.33 meters of 11.01 percent nickel and 11.4 percent copper, as well as platinum-group metals.

“The combination of Talon and Eagle will create a pure-play US nickel company anchored by the Eagle mine, the only primary nickel mine currently operating in the United States,” said Lundin Mining President and CEO Jack Lundin.

“This transaction unlocks meaningful synergies, including the opportunity to leverage the Humboldt Mill as a shared, centralized processing facility,’ the executive added.

Darby Stacey, who has managed Eagle mine operations since commissioning, will assume the role of CEO and director of Talon. Lundin Mining will nominate Jack Lundin and Juan Andrés Morel to Talon’s reconstituted 10 member board.

The deal also includes arrangements such as a production payment agreement for non-Eagle ore processed at the Humboldt mill, transitional services provided by Lundin Mining and investor rights protections.

The transaction is expected to close in early January 2026, pending approval from the TSX and customary closing conditions. Talon will continue to trade on the TSX under the symbol TLO.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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