Copper price, July 1 to October 17, 2025.

Chart via TradingEconomics.

At the start of September, copper experienced some upward momentum, but really took off in the middle of the month as supply fundamentals took over. By the end of September, prices were closing back in on US$5.

Since the end of the quarter, the copper market has continued to gain strength, with prices breaking through US$5 on October 3 and rising to US$5.11 on October 9.

US copper tariffs stoke price volatility

The big story to start the quarter was the Trump administration’s copper tariff announcement on July 8.

The news came after months of speculation following the government’s February launch of an investigation into how tariffs could be used to bolster national security under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act.

Copper market participants were caught off guard by the timing, as some had expected the tariffs to come later in the year, and at a lower rate than the announced 50 percent. Traders began importing copper into the US from abroad ahead of the implementation of the tariffs, and the increased volume drove prices for the metal to record highs by the end of the month; it also created a significant disparity between the COMEX and the London Metal Exchange (LME).

“The announcement of a 50 percent tariff on copper imports in early July created extreme volatility in the US copper market, triggering a surge in physical shipments into the country as buyers rushed to get ahead of the duty. This buying drove COMEX futures sharply higher and pushed the US premium over LME prices to an unprecedented 30 percent.’

White explained that during a copper short squeeze on the COMEX in 2024, copper premiums peaked at 8 percent; he also noted that the five year average for the COMEX-LME disparity is near parity at 0.5 percent.

Ultimately, copper tariffs were only applied to unrefined copper, as well as semi-finished and copper-intensive derivatives, such as pipe fittings, cables, connectors and electrical components.

Refined copper tariffs will be phased in at 15 percent in 2027, and 30 percent in 2028. The move essentially pulled the rug out from under traders, causing COMEX prices to plummet by nearly 25 percent.

White stated that with the tariff situation cleared up, copper prices once again reflected the underlying supply and demand fundamentals of low inventories and high demand resulting from the energy transition.

“These structural forces pushed copper prices internationally higher overall for the quarter, despite the mid-summer volatility. The tariff episode reinforced copper’s strategic importance and highlighted the fragility of global supply chains, factors that may strengthen the case for higher prices going forward,” he said.

Copper faces supply-side disruptions

According to the International Copper Study Group’s copper market forecast, released on October 7, refined copper is expected to record a 178,000 metric ton surplus in 2025, significantly lower than the 209,000 metric ton surplus predicted in April. However, the group expects a 150,000 metric ton deficit in 2026.

The reason for the group’s downward revision is supply disruptions at Ivanhoe Mines’ (TSX:IVN,OTCQX:IVPAF) Kamoa-Kakula operation in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and at Freeport-McMoRan’s (NYSE:FCX) Grasberg mine in Indonesia. The assets are two of the world’s largest copper mines.

Kamoa-Kakula was temporarily shut down in May following a seismic event at the mine. While some operations began to ramp up again in June, Ivanhoe has revised its midpoint guidance down to 395,000 metric tons for 2025 after initially expecting 550,000 metric tons; it has also withdrawn the 600,000 metric tons expected in 2026.

At Grasberg, a liquid material ingress in early September killed seven workers and forced the suspension of operations. In a release on September 24, Freeport said consolidated copper sales across its operations will decline by 4 percent during Q3, but was unable to provide estimates for the fourth quarter.

The Grasberg site encompasses several underground mines: the Grasberg block cave, the Deep Mill Level Zone (DMLZ) and Big Gossan. DMLZ and Big Gossan were not affected, and could restart production in the fourth quarter.

However, according to Freeport, a preliminary assessment indicates a delayed restart of operations at the Grasberg block cave, resulting in the deferral of significant production in the near term. A ramp up in this area is not anticipated to begin until the first half of 2026, with the mine potentially returning to full production in 2027.

“This single event has pushed 2025 mine disruptions to 6 percent of global supply, above the historical average of 5 percent, and turned a near-balanced market into a clear deficit,’ White said.

‘With inventories already at multi-year lows and scrap unable to fully bridge the gap, the supply side offers little cushion. This tightening dynamic suggests higher prices may be necessary to incentivize new projects.’

Copper price forecast for 2025

Although some headwinds remain, primarily stemming from a worsening trade standoff between the US and China, copper’s future is likely tied to its fundamental supply and demand dynamics.

With little new supply scheduled to come online in the near term, this should signal more support for pricing as demand continues to grow from the energy transition and key sectors, such as artificial intelligence and data centers.

“On the demand side, copper’s growth drivers remain firmly in place. Electrification, grid modernization, artificial intelligence and data center buildouts and defense spending continue accelerating, making copper less tied to broad GDP growth and more linked to strategic sectors. These trends, combined with a deepening supply deficit, reinforce the structural bull case for copper,” White explained. He also suggested that any further disruptions will only add tailwinds to the copper price, benefiting producers and investors alike.

Silver price, July 1 to October 17, 2025.

Chart via Trading Economics.

Silver broke the US$40 mark on September 1, then continued on up, rising to US$42.69 on September 15.

By September 30, it was closing in on all-time highs, reaching US$46.66. As the fourth quarter began, the price continued to climb, reaching an all-time high of US$54.47 on October 17.

Silver’s industrial demand drivers

Silver’s price gains over the past few years have been driven partially by increasing demand from industrial segments, where the metal has various applications, including in the production of photovoltaics (PVs).

An April report from the Silver Institute notes that industrial demand for silver increased for the fourth year in a row in 2024, rising 4 percent and setting a record of 680.5 million ounces.

The rise was attributed mainly to the green economy, which includes PVs, and artificial intelligence (AI).

Although the institute isn’t forecasting gains for 2025, it’s still predicting that silver industrial demand will remain near record levels, at 677.4 million ounces, with 195.7 million ounces coming from PVs.

A key reason for the high demand for solar energy is that production costs have made it more competitive than coal, gas or wind. This has increased the attractiveness of PVs for use in data centers.

Speaking at the Metals Investor Forum in Vancouver, BC, at the end of September, Peter Krauth, editor of Silver Stock Investor and author of ‘The Great Silver Bull,’ discussed the staggering rise in demand for solar energy and noted that during the 2010s, deployment exceeded expectations by 200 percent.

“Data center power demand over the next four years is expected to grow 21 percent, and AI is expected to see a 33 percent annual growth in electricity demand over the next four years,” he said.

He explained that tech companies favor solar over wind three-to-one, and nuclear at a rate of five-to-one. That’s because solar is not only cheaper than other energy forms, but also faster to permit, as long as space is available.

While PVs remain a strong demand driver for silver, it’s not the only one.

“Silver, after oil, is the commodity with the single most applications worldwide,’ said Krauth.

‘So when you say silver is indispensable, it’s irreplaceable in some ways. It has so many applications that if silver were to disappear tomorrow, it would wreak havoc on a lot of industry,’ he continued.

“Silver’s main growth driver is industrial usage. Especially when it comes to electric cars and batteries, silver is nearly irreplaceable,” she said. However, she also noted risks coming from the US and its ability to influence the global market, suggesting that with high uncertainty, commodities can be unpredictable. Additionally, Khandoshko pointed to market saturation in the tech sector, suggesting tailwinds may not be what they once were.

“The technology market is on the verge of a breakthrough, but at the same time, it is close to saturation, and the potential for a sharp increase in demand is limited. As a result, I would say that it is not worth expecting rapid leaps from silver, although for now the metal is in plus,” she said.

Silver benefiting from investment demand

Although industrial components have grown in the past few years, they aren’t the only factor that drove silver during the third quarter. Investment demand also helped push it toward record highs.

In a July report, the Silver Institute states that as of June 30, 1.13 billion ounces of silver were held in exchange-traded products, 7 percent below the all-time high set in February 2021. It attributes the rise in silver investment to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty as more investors turn to silver as a safe-haven asset.

Additionally, many investors view silver as undervalued compared to gold.

Since 2000, the gold-silver ratio has averaged 69:1; however, in 2025, it has been significantly higher, reaching 104:1 in May. Although it has fallen, the ratio remains above the 25 year average, reaching 79:1 in October.

“If you take US$3,700 (per ounce) gold today, and you use the average going back to 2000, that puts you already at US$54. So we’re beyond that all-time high of silver potentially pretty easily just based on that ratio,” Krauth said.

He added that he expects the gold price to continue climbing, pushing up the potential for an even higher silver price if it approaches that 69:1 average.

Silver price forecast for 2025

As suggested by the Silver Institute, Krauth and Khandoshko, silver is supported not only by supply and demand fundamentals, but also by tailwinds on the investment side.

In his talk, Krauth suggested that US$95 isn’t out of the question for silver over the next 12 to 24 months. He also said that silver producers are likely to benefit from the metal’s increasing price.

“When money starts to flow into the silver stocks, the impact can be really massive,’ he said.

‘If you take the bottom essentially of the last year and a half since late February 2024, silver’s up 105 percent and silver stocks, juniors are up 183 percent so far,’ added Krauth. Although it is difficult to predict how long a cycle will last, Krauth looked to the past and suggested there could still be significant runway ahead.

AUKUS deal

Albanese and Trump were also reported to have discussed the AUKUS submarine deal, a multi-billion dollar agreement between Australia, the UK and the US, which is believed to be about countering China’s growing presence in the Indo-Pacific region.’

When asked whether AUKUS is a “deterrent” for China, Trump answered yes.

‘(But) I don’t think we’re going to need it’ with China.

“The US has the best military in the world, and nobody wants åto mess with it,” he added. ‘We’re going to get along great with China.’

AUKUS is worth around US$239 billion or AU$368 billion over 30 years. Starting in 2032, Australia plans to buy three Virginia-class submarines from the US, with the option to get two more. These will fill the gap while the UK and Australia develop a new submarine model.

Trump also said that the US is working on building more submarines for Australia and is going to expedite submarine exports to Australia.

Australia is expected to receive the first of the new submarines in the early 2040s.