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In the spring of 1933, American farmers pleaded for help from their newly elected president, Franklin Roosevelt. Hog prices were at record lows, and the farmers wanted the government to do something.

Not one to let a crisis go to waste, FDR took action. Agriculture Secretary Henry Wallace was tasked with arranging the slaughter of millions of pigs in an effort to raise hog prices. Farmers who participated in the federal government’s hog program — later dubbed by economists “the porcine slaughter of the innocents” — were compensated. Their animals were turned into “inedible meat and bone meal,” courtesy of US taxpayers, even as hunger in America hit record highs. 

A country destroying its own food during a depression might sound like economic madness, and it is — but we are once again watching governments ramp up policies that pay farmers to destroy food.

It’s no secret that European vineyards have been disappearing for years. The trend is starkest in Pyrénées-Orientales in southern France: that region “lost nearly half its vines” between 2000 and 2020, The Economist recently reported. Limited access to water and rising energy costs played a role. But vineyards have vanished with increasing speed in recent years, thanks to government policies. 

In 2024, the French government revived a familiar tactic: paying farmers to rip out their vines. Under this national program, farmers can receive roughly €4,000 (about $4,600) for every hectare they remove. If lawmakers aimed to see the country produce less wine and hasten the disappearance of vineyards, that’s what they got.

France typically produces well over 40 million hectoliters of wine annually, but in 2025 it produced just 36 million, according to the French Ministry of Agriculture. Meanwhile, growers in the Languedoc-Roussillon region saw a surge in vines removed last year — roughly 15,000 hectares, an area approaching the size of Washington, D.C., according to The Economist.

Many might assume climate concerns drove France’s policy, but the primary reason resembles the catalyst for FDR’s “porcine slaughter of the innocents”: oversupply.

Global trends show fewer people drinking alcohol, especially Gen Z. Wine has taken a particularly hard hit, even in France, where red wine consumption recently reached an all-time low. French lawmakers say their policy is designed to “rescue” the wine industry from what the ministry described as excessive output.

To the average person, paying vineyard owners to destroy their vines likely looks crazy — but in Europe, it’s business as usual.

For years, the European Union has attempted to micromanage wine production through various incentives, including direct payments to farmers to remove vines. A European Parliament report found that the EU’s 2008 wine reform set an aggressive target: removal of 175,000 hectares with commitments to not replant. (Actual removal totaled 160,550 hectares.)

Now it appears Brussels is intent on ramping up its policy. The EU’s most recent Wine Package will, among other measures, make it easier for countries to make direct payments to farmers to destroy their vines.

“…new rules on State aid would allow Member States to use national financing not only for distillation of surplus wine,” the package reads, “but also for green harvesting (the total destruction or removal of grapes while still in their immature stage) and grubbing up (complete elimination of all vine stocks) of vineyards.”

There’s a certain irony in the policy. 

For decades, the EU subsidized wine production, resulting in surplusses critics dubbed “wine lakes.” Now Brussels wants to ratchet up efforts to rip out vines — to curb the very surplus that bureaucrats helped create.

There’s a senselessness to Europe’s approach that matches New Deal efforts to alleviate poverty by destroying millions of pigs. At least some New Dealers eventually learned their interventionist policies were failing.

“We are spending more money than we have ever spent before and it does not work,” United States Secretary of the Treasury Henry Morgenthau Jr. admitted to Congress in 1939. “I want to see this country prosperous. I want to see people get a job, I want to see people get enough to eat. We have never made good on our promises.”

Morgenthau learned the hard way that trying to engineer a market economy from Washington — through spending, controls, and heavy-handed intervention — produced results far different from those promised. 

We can only hope lawmakers in Europe eventually learn the same lesson. 

Markets aren’t perfect, but they aggregate information from millions of buyers and sellers far better than bureaucrats, who can’t seem to decide whether to subsidize vineyards to boost production or destroy them to raise prices.

These contradictions will do long-term harm to vineyards. That’s a shame. A world with less wine is a less happy world.

Fusionism, a new book by Stephanie Slade, a Senior Editor at Reason, attempts to make sense of the seemingly incoherent New Right. Although Slade proposes a renewal of fusionism as a remedy to conservatism’s drift and the challenges facing a divided Republic, the book’s greatest strength lies in its analysis of the trends to date. 

The Republican Party, for all its faults, was supposed to understand (instinctively, if not always intellectually) limited government, rule of law, and the basics of economics. From its elected leaders, though, we have gotten tariffs, increased public debt, dodgy respect for habeas corpus in immigration enforcement, and the Saturday Night Live tragicomedy of DOGE (a virtue-signaling, clumsy, and cruel flash in the pan destined to die on the vine when it removed entitlements from the chopping block). The coalition that constitutes the New Right has abandoned conservatism, and instead sells its own form of populist interventionism. 

Slade starts by painting a rather glum sketch of the contemporary scene. Within the convoluted and heterogeneous mess she labels “the Dissident Right,” she identifies three major strains: 

  1. the predominant national conservatives, who are eager to use the coercive power of the modern administrative state to advance (allegedly) conservative causes and push for national primacy;
  2. the theocons, who dream of “immanentizing the eschaton” by creating a state theocracy to impose (their understanding of) a transcendent moral order;
  3. the neoreactionaries, the Pajama-Boy Nitzscheans who have been given legitimacy to spew their blend of vitriol and conspiracy.

The NatCons have turned their back on the basics of markets and skepticism about administrative power (how sad in this 250th anniversary year of The Wealth of Nations!). The theocons would repoliticize salvation after three centuries of religious tolerance within Christendom. And, beneath all that, the country’s baser instincts toward power and suppression are flourishing within the neoreactionary right. On the other side, the interventionist excesses of American socialism, with DEI, cancel culture, and continued growth of the administrative-welfare state, are equally horrifying. To paraphrase Richard Nixon, we are all interventionists now.

The titular Fusionism is shorthand for the collaboration of old-school conservatives and libertarians that held in America from 1945 to 1989, or thereabouts. Members of that alliance disagreed on details, but shared a horror for the rise of collectivism, the welfare-administrative state, and the existential threat of communism. 

Slade’s personal history of the movement is a rich and readable complement to some of the deeper treatments of the ideas (notably George Carey’s magisterial compendium, Freedom and Virtue: The Conservative/Libertarian Debate, and my own work with Nathan Schlueter of Hillsdale College, Selfish Libertarians and Socialist Conservatives? The Foundations of the Libertarian-Conservative Debate). Slade’s arguments are clean and incisive, and the prose is a pleasure to read, even if Slade occasionally indulges in the journalist’s déformation professionnelle of descriptive wordiness.

Slade points to several explanations for the rise of the Dissident Right: the failed gamble of China’s accession to the WTO without subsequent human rights improvements, the post-2007 bank bailouts, the costly debacle of attempted nation-building in Iraq and Afghanistan, immigration, those left behind by globalization, and the authoritarianism of DEI. 

These are all plausible. But I suspect that Slade is a bit too kind: the American administrative-welfare state is the real villain in this story. First, because it caused most of the problems that have energized the Dissident Right (crowding out of civil society, a culture of dependence, and erosion of the family). Second, because income inequality in the US is associated with cronyism replacing genuine economic activity — a problem exacerbated by the gutting of K–12 and college education standards by educrats, along with the rise of regressive regulation, including job licensing. Third, because the Dissident Right doesn’t see the irony: its proposed use of the state is exactly what generated the outcomes it decries.

In just half a century, the US shifted from teaching Latin and calculus in high school to teaching basic English and algebra in college. It took a mere generation for discourse to collapse from Ronald Reagan’s gentlemanly and beautiful oratory to Donald Trump’s boorish grade-school-level word salad. What happened, in discourse and substance, between 1989 and 2016? Slade points to the populist conservative Pat Buchanan, but we could also mention Dick Cheney; the vice president was more refined, but also a lot more effective at pushing the power of the unitary executive and expanding the administrative state. There have always been “proto-Dissident Right” voices in America, Slade argues, but they were once kept in check by a loose coalition of libertarians, decent folk, fusionist conservatives, and the communist threat. The pre-1968 Dixiecrat segregationists, the Evangelical Christian Right under Reagan, Pat Buchanan, Dick Cheney and the more radical neocons under George W. Bush were always there. But there was always accountability, restraint, and public decency. 

President Trump is tapping into real ills and soul sicknesses in American society and the American economy; but he is doing so in an ugly way that appeals to the lowest common denominator. Even FDR, Huey Long, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama, for all their interventionist instincts and actions and their loose interpretations of the Constitution, operated under a veneer of respectability, and showed some shame when they got caught with their pants down.

Slade proposes a renaissance of fusionism as an antidote to the Dissident Right, in a bid to save both the Republic and the Spirit of ‘76. She reminds us that political analysis will require new language. In a similar spirit, I have long argued that the left-right taxonomy once made sense — in post-1789 France, where the left represented the Jacobin radicals like Robespierre, the centrists were today’s classical liberals, and the right favored a return of the monarchy. But the Dissident Right is a misnomer. This modern movement Slade names does not align with the American conservative tradition, and is thus not clearly of “the Right.” Even if it seeks nativist or religious or other allegedly conservative goals, it does so by promoting an increasingly intrusive and muscular central government.

How little we have progressed since 1944, when F.A. Hayek dedicated The Road to Serfdom to “the socialists of all parties.” 

Today’s classical liberals are, indeed, alone in a two-front war. The paternalistic Left and the Dissident Right both aggressively push for social and economic control. Liberty, limited government, and free markets have few defenders. Fusionism is an appealing alliance, as Slade proposes it. But who will be the fusionist warriors for individual liberty? Where are the moderates to defend private property? Where have all the pro-business, small-government, free-trade conservatives gone? We can hope that there is a Nockian Remnant out there, biding its time while the dissident storm passes. In the meantime, the libertarian wing of fusionism stands alone, as core agreements have largely been abandoned by those who still call themselves conservatives, but now need hyphenations to distinguish conservatism from their preferred flavor of interventionism.

Automakers from Germany to Detroit are at a crossroads. Do they produce cars for consumers or for political points? Ford and Volkswagen are finding out what happens when they opt to please the latter at the expense of the former.

In its most recent earnings report, Ford registered a hefty $1.33 billion quarterly loss for Q2 of 2026 that was punctuated by a 10 percent decline in year-over-year sales for Q1 and Q2, along with a 4 percent fall in revenue in Q1. These lackluster results are partly the result of a failed electric vehicle battery venture along with the cancellation of EV programs that received an underwhelming consumer response. Surprisingly, Wall Street’s response was quite different. 

Ford’s shares surged by seven percent despite the quarter’s losses. They rebounded in part due to Dearborn’s optimistic estimates for the rest of the fiscal year. Why the optimism? That rosy picture comes from the automaker’s realization that the road to profit is paved by the wishes of consumers, not politicians. The report acknowledged that consumers want big pickups and SUVs and haven’t been won over by Ford’s EV offerings. 

Ford’s willingness to cut its losses stands in sharp relief against the decisions being made by Wolfsburg, Germany’s Volkswagen (VW). There, Europe’s largest automaker is discovering that the price for ignoring consumers in favor of Brussels’ mandates is lost market share, reduced productivity, and large-scale layoffs. 

In late 2025, EU leadership announced sweeping directives for reaching all-time emissions lows. One of those requirements in the passenger vehicle market requires EU-based automakers “to comply with a 90 percent tailpipe emissions reduction target, while the remaining 10 percent emissions will need to be compensated through the use of low-carbon steel Made in the Union, or from e-fuels and biofuels.” 

Compliance isn’t cheap. After the mandates were approved, VW CEO Oliver Blume announced: “Over the next five years, the Volkswagen Group intends to invest €160 billion. The focus is on Germany and Europe, in products, technologies, production facilities, and infrastructure.” Further, “ we are financing developments in future-oriented fields such as battery cells, software, and autonomous driving.” While not all of these new expenditures are purely driven by compliance costs, these regulations certainly steer capital toward politically favored investments instead of toward consumers’ desires.

This is a classic case of government-induced malinvestment into certain lines of production. Based on the EU regulators’ decrees for a 2035 ban on the manufacturing and sale of internal combustion engines, VW was forced to make politically generated malinvestments. The question to be raised is a simple one: Were these management decisions driven by market signals provided by consumers? The answer has been a resounding ‘no.’ 

Caught between genuine market signals and mandates from the EU, VW leadership chose to please regulators over customers. Unable to both comply with EU mandates and fend off further market share losses, the Wolfsburg-based manufacturer reversed course on the promise of new investments in July of 2026. They instead announced a 15 percent reduction in the original investment plan to about $148 billion. That’s not all that will be cut. In a recent internal memo, Blume warned that four plants and up to 50,000 additional layoffs may be in order on top of the same number of job cuts already agreed to by Porsche and Audi, amounting to a total loss of 100,000 roles. In response to the proposed cuts, labor representatives for VW workers — IG Metall and the works council — vowed to fight the cuts with their full might. Volkswagen’s labor force isn’t the only group feeling the pain, shareholders have seen the stock sink to its lowest level in sixteen years. 

Data from LSEG workplace

Wolfsburg’s decision to lean into costly EU regulations aren’t the only source of strain. Leadership also cited VW’s 20-percent cost disadvantage relative to its rivals, some of whom are newcomers to the European car market. New electric models from Chinese carmaker BYD have significantly lower labor costs. Meanwhile, US import tariffs have also put a dent in VW and Audi sales stateside, taking a 20 percent year over year slide in Q4 of 2025. 

The first lesson to be taken from these outcomes is that it pays to keep consumers in the driver’s seat, rather than regulators, when it comes to management’s decisions on what types of vehicles to produce. The second is that more regulation means not only higher costs, but market confusion. Relieving automakers from such mixed signals is the surest way to speed toward profitability and satisfied customers.

Ford is now in a better position than VW in this respect, as the Trump administration has scaled back the Biden team’s more stringent Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) requirements. But there’s still plenty to be undone. The current administration’s estimates indicate that there would be $109 billion in savings to American carmakers by loosening emissions rules. Nevertheless, the rules still require that all US-made passenger vehicles make 34.1 mpg by 2031. That’s a significant reduction from the previous administration’s demands for mpg to reach over 50 mpg. Yet, consumers’ tastes for maximizing fuel efficiency have hit a wall.

This should come as a relief to Ford shareholders and workers, as the sales record for EVs in the US has been less than stellar. For every F-150 Lightning trimline sold, by way of example, Ford lost $44,000. In aggregate, that translated into a $19.5 billion loss on the project before the project was canceled in 2026. According to carbuzz.com, that massive write-down consisted of $8.5 billion for canceled EV projects, $6 billion for a dissolved battery venture, and another $5 billion for program-related expenses. Among EV truck competitors, the Tesla Cybertruck sold 7,000 fewer units than the Lightning and the Chevy Silverado EV sold roughly half of Ford’s 27,000 units. 

As US automakers had been geared up to chase more aggressive CAFE standards, but also in anticipation of future, more stringent regulations, the industry as a whole made massive malinvestments in these technologies, which consumers haven’t adopted. As a result, throughout 2025, GM, Ford, and Stellantis slashed more than 20,000 US salaried jobs, or 19 percent of their combined workforces in the past year, leaving the Rust Belt even more oxidized than it was before. 

While stateside job losses aren’t as stark as those at VW, they are nevertheless a warning sign to auto manufacturers of all nationalities. If pleasing regulators is job number one, then consumers, laborers, and shareholders get left in the dust. This stark reality reveals the high cost of intervention-based innovation versus consumer-driven innovation. The former artificially drives up costs with an unknown payoff. The latter still entails risk, but car manufacturers on both sides of the Atlantic have a far better track record of meeting consumer desires in the markets than in meeting those of regulators and bureaucrats, who are guided by the fickle nature of green politics.

Markets almost never function better when participants know less rather than more. Yet that is where the growing campaign against Federal Reserve forward guidance ultimately leads.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has argued that the Fed should speak less, publish fewer clues about its future intentions, and move away from many of the communication tools developed over the last three decades. As he told the Senate Banking Committee, “Unlike many of my colleagues past and present, I don’t believe in forward guidance. I don’t believe that I should be previewing for you what a future decision will be.”

The argument sounds sensible enough. Central bankers are often wrong. Forecasts are revised. Policymakers become attached to projections that events quickly render obsolete. Markets sometimes spend more time parsing Federal Reserve speeches than studying the economy itself.

Yet this entire line of reasoning overlooks a basic fact: information does not disappear when it is withheld. Warsh is correct that markets can become overly focused on Federal Reserve communications. But reducing official communication does not eliminate that focus. It merely redirects it. Investors who once scrutinized public statements will instead scrutinize private signals, informal conversations, and perceived access to policymakers. The demand for policy information remains unchanged. Only the transparency of its distribution changes.

The debate over Federal Reserve communication is not really about forward guidance. It is about information.

For most of its history, the Federal Reserve operated behind a veil of deliberate ambiguity. Prior to 1994, it did not routinely announce changes in its target interest rate. Most investors and economists were expected to infer policy changes from open-market operations and subtle shifts in Federal Reserve behavior. Entire industries emerged around deciphering these signals.

This was often described as market discipline. In practice, it frequently rewarded access over analysis. The winners were not necessarily those who best understood inflation, employment, productivity, or growth. They were often those who best understood the habits of central bankers, the mechanics of Federal Reserve operations, and the informal channels through which information traveled.

The move toward transparency occurred because policymakers gradually concluded that this was a poor way to run a modern monetary system. The Fed began announcing rate changes directly. It released more information about its reasoning. Minutes became more detailed. Press conferences became routine. Economic projections became public. Research generally found that markets became better at anticipating policy actions as communication improved and policy surprises diminished.

The intellectual foundation for much of this shift was laid by economists such as Marvin Goodfriend and David Dotsey. In a series of influential papers during the 1980s, Goodfriend challenged what he called the Federal Reserve’s “monetary mystique”—the longstanding belief that secrecy enhanced monetary policy. Dotsey likewise examined the economics of secrecy and concluded that while opacity might reduce some short-run market volatility, it also increased uncertainty by making policy harder to anticipate. Together, their work helped shift the debate from whether central banks should communicate to how they should communicate. Their central insight was straightforward: information not disclosed to the public does not disappear. It simply becomes more valuable to those who possess it, creating incentives for investors to seek privileged access rather than rely on superior economic analysis.

I first encountered these ideas as a doctoral student in economics during the stock-market crash of October 1987. The Federal Reserve of that era was hardly known for openness. Yet when markets were spiraling downward, Alan Greenspan did not choose silence. He issued a brief statement affirming that the Federal Reserve stood ready to provide liquidity to support the financial system.

The statement contained no projections and no dot plots. It simply told markets what they needed to know. The Federal Reserve would act if necessary. One of the most successful acts of forward guidance in Federal Reserve history occurred before economists had even given it a name.

Less than a decade later, I found myself advising central banks and monetary authorities in Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Jordan. In each case, the consequences of opacity were impossible to miss. When official information was scarce, markets did not become more efficient. They became more political. Economic analysis mattered less. Access mattered more. Businesses devoted less effort to understanding economic conditions and more effort to discovering what government officials were privately thinking. In weak institutional environments, information itself became a form of currency.

The same dynamic applies to monetary policy.

Suppose the Federal Reserve substantially reduces forward guidance. Will investors stop trying to forecast interest rates? Will banks stop hiring economists? Will hedge funds stop searching for clues about future policy? Of course not.

The demand for information about monetary policy will remain exactly where it is today. Only the supply of public information will decline.

The likely result is not a renewed focus on economic fundamentals. It is a return to a world in which access carries a premium. Investors will spend more time interpreting private signals, cultivating relationships, and searching for clues about policymakers’ intentions. The advantage shifts away from those who are best at analyzing economic data and toward those who are best positioned to obtain information that others cannot.

Supporters of a quieter Federal Reserve are correct that not every speech is useful and not every projection deserves publication. Some communication tools may indeed have gone too far. But the solution to excessive communication is better communication, not deliberate opacity.

Markets are remarkably capable of evaluating information. Investors already distinguish between sound analysis and empty rhetoric. Some Federal Reserve speeches move markets because investors regard them as credible. Others are ignored because investors do not. The real question is whether those judgments should be made using public information or private information.

Markets work best when investors compete on analysis rather than access. The real cost of Federal Reserve silence is not uncertainty. It is privilege.

Inflation crept back up in July, though not by much. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1 percent last month, a modest reversal after June’s 0.4 percent decline. The year-over-year rate eased slightly, to 3.4 percent from 3.5 percent.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, told a similar story. Core CPI rose 0.2 percent in July after being flat in June. The year-over-year core rate ticked down to 2.5 percent from 2.6 percent — another small move.

Last month’s headline decline was almost entirely an energy story, as oil prices moderated with the anticipated reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. In July, housing took over as the main driver. Shelter rose 0.1 percent over the month, accounting for roughly two-thirds of the monthly increase in the headline index. Energy fell 1.5 percent, with gasoline down 2.9 percent, continuing the retreat that began in June. The shift matters: energy moves are volatile and often reverse quickly, while shelter tends to be stickier. 

Price increases in July were broad. Medical care, airline fares, communication, education, and recreation all rose, with airline fares up 2.2 percent on the month, driven by higher prices for jet fuel. Motor vehicle insurance was one of the major categories contributing to a decline in the index, down 0.3 percent, although less than its 2.0 percent drop in June.

The Three-Month Point of View

The three-month trend annualized, which can help filter out some of the monthly noise, tells a cooler story than either the monthly or annual figures suggest. Headline CPI rose at roughly a 0.8 percent annualized rate over the three months through July, well below the 3.4 percent year-over-year figure. Core, which strips out energy, rose faster over the same stretch, at roughly 1.6 percent annualized — still below its 2.5 percent year-over-year pace but a smaller gap. The wider gap on the headline number shows that a few volatile months of energy prices can lead to huge swings.

Markets are more confident that the Fed will hold rates steady. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool puts the odds of a hold around 65 percent in September and 50 percent in October, following yesterday’s steady PPI print. 

The labor market gave the Fed more reasons to lean that way. The latest data indicate nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, and May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000. The unemployment rate fell slightly from 4.2 percent to 4.1 percent, but the participation rate has now declined 0.7 percentage points since January. Year-over-year average hourly earnings decelerated from 3.5 percent in June to 3.2 percent in July. This is not a labor market showing acute stress, but it is no longer the source of comfort it was earlier this year.

The Nominal Income Point of View

Inflation can react to either nominal or real shocks, which makes it an indirect measure of where monetary policy actually stands. Nominal income, by contrast, is a direct measure of whether policy is loose, about right, or restrictive, since it isolates the nominal side of the economy from the real shock noise that CPI can’t filter out on its own. 

Between Q2 2025 and Q2 2026, nominal GDP grew 6.5 percent, a significant increase compared to the 4.6 percent growth between Q1 2025 and Q1 2026. That elevated trend sits uncomfortably above the roughly four-percent pace that prevailed before the pandemic. 

Despite signs of a weakening labor market and a three-month CPI trend below 2 percent annualized, the Fed faces a dilemma. CPI and payroll data reflect the current state of prices and hiring, both of which show signs of deceleration. Meanwhile, nominal spending indicates demand is still robust, and this demand hasn’t slowed sufficiently to suggest that the recent cooling is anything but temporary. If nominal spending remains strong, the softer CPI and employment figures are more likely indicators of a lag rather than a true shift in trend.

July 2026 CPI at a Glance

CategoryMonth-over-Month (July)3-Month AnnualizedYear-over-Year
All items0.1%0.8%3.4%
All items less food and energy0.2%1.6%2.5%
Food0.1%2.0%3.0%
Energy-1.5%-13.3%14.7%
Shelter0.1%2.0%3.2%
Transportation services0.3%-2.4%2.9%
Medical care services0.6%4.1%2.7%

The next CPI report for August is scheduled for release on Friday, September 11, 2026.

In a 2024 ruling that shook DC to its foundations, the Supreme Court upheld the Seventh Amendment in SEC v. Jarkesy (2024), affirming the right to an impartial jury trial. Until Jarkesy, the Securities and Exchange Commission had been deciding and applying its own civil penalties for securities fraud. When the time came, though, to reaffirm this right for a different agency, the Supreme Court blinked.

Must other agencies honor the Seventh Amendment in such cases too? And what about agencies who stack shadow administrative courts against Americans, operating as the enforcer, judge, and jury?

AT&T sought to answer these questions when defending itself against a Federal Communications Commission (FCC) charge of violating Sec. 222 of the Telecommunications Act, allegedly mishandling customers’ cellular data. The FCC enforced these monetary penalties against private entities entirely in-house and without the right to a jury trial. AT&T begrudgingly paid the $57 million forfeiture, but sought to overturn the enforcement action in federal court. 

The Fifth Circuit Court sympathized with AT&T.

The Commission [FCC] cites no authority supporting the proposition that the constitutional guarantee of a jury trial is honored by a trial occurring after an agency has already found the facts, interpreted the law, adjudged guilt, and levied punishment.

In other words, administrative agencies cannot simply sideline Constitutional protections.

Unfortunately, the US Supreme Court did not share the Fifth Circuit’s concerns. The justices ruled 8-1 to protect the FCC’s civil penalty regime, claiming that the FCC’s forfeiture orders were not judicially enforceable, and AT&T should have refused to pay if it wished to force a jury trial. Despite the same absence of constitutional protection as the SEC’s fraud cases, the FCC was judged to have upheld the right to a jury trial — even though none was actually available. 

AT&T faced two equally undesirable outcomes after receiving a Notice of Apparent Liability of Forfeiture (NAL), a formal warning of noncompliance under the Comms Act.

In one route, AT&T could have avoided paying the $57 million penalty, forcing the FCC to refer the matter to the Department of Justice for debt recovery. Only after the debt is assessed can AT&T finally pursue a trial de novo (a completely new trial) with jury access.  

Or AT&T could have paid the fine in full and then challenged the forfeiture action by appealing to a nearby circuit court. But this path sees the company forfeit access to a jury trial. 

A company can issue a written statement in opposition to the NAL, asking the five FCC commissioners to vote to uphold or deny the penalty. This preordained process undermines any semblance of fairness, as the commission dominates every possible outcome. Only the FCC commissioners can greenlight enforcement actions in the first place, so the targeted firm’s recourse is only to those very people who authorized the action under appeal.

In the FCC’s domain, AT&T lost its case before it even began. As Justice Clarence Thomas pointed out, AT&T should have received access to a federal jury before being forced to pay a costly fine. “In this process, which was completely in-house, the Commission acted as prosecutor, jury, and judge,” according to the Fifth Circuit’s AT&T decision. 

One alternative mechanism exists: the Commission may decide to host an internal hearing to adjudicate the forfeiture order. A hand-picked FCC administrative law judge (ALJ) may be assigned to hear the dispute, but the choice to appoint one is left to the commissioners’ discretion. The FCC dominates the entire process.

This ALJ-led route has become more unlikely over time, given the commissioners’ preference to adjudicate fines on their own terms. The FCC reserves more control over the enforcement process when its five commissioners vote to uphold a NAL rather than provide the opposing party with an administrative hearing. The FCC imposed the fine, rejected AT&T’s written opposition, and demanded immediate payment — without due process. 

Only a handful of agencies enjoy similar privileges. The National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and formerly the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) can all reroute cases away from their ALJs to be managed entirely by the agency leadership. This diminishes the original purpose of ALJs as the first line of review in proceedings.

The CFPB Director, until recently, reviewed all dispositive motions prior to the ALJ’s consideration, even though that same office also exercised final authority over all ALJ decisions. Thankfully, Acting CFPB Director Russ Vought rescinded this uncanny ability to control every aspect of a case, ensuring that dispositive motions were reviewed by an ALJ first.  

The NLRB’s rules allow the Board to intercept and revise ALJs’ draft opinions before an initial decision — which parties can challenge — is issued. The NLRB Board exercises full influence over the ALJ’s decision and will later review challenges to that same decision.

At the SEC, commissioners have increasingly bypassed ALJ adjudication: a rise in SEC commissioner opinions since 2020 corresponds with a precipitous decline in ALJ cases. SEC commissioners increasingly choose to decide disputes absent an ALJ, as seen with the recent Ameritrust Corporation case. 

Even if the FCC had held a traditional hearing on the fine, AT&T would face a near impossible challenge before an ALJ. In the unlikely event that AT&T managed to win against the agency in-house, FCC attorneys would simply appeal the matter before the full commission. Why wouldn’t those commissioners affirm the very enforcement action they approved in the first place? The SEC commissioners enjoy an identical process when affirming their own Division of Enforcement’s actions. 

As the above shows, agencies like the FCC can bend the trajectory of enforcement disputes as they deem fit. In such arrangements, businesses are stripped of their procedural due process rights. Telecom firms like AT&T deserve the right to adjudicate civil penalties before a real court of law, not before an agency court with enormous conflicts of interest.  

The FCC’s forfeiture orders closely resemble the SEC’s fraud penalties in the Jarkesy decision. The Seventh Amendment’s guarantee of a jury should have overridden the FCC commissioner’s adjudicatory scheme, just like it did to the SEC.  

The FCC cannot withhold access to a jury until after it has already determined the facts, levied a penalty, and rendered one’s guilt. Regardless of the binding nature of the order, AT&T deserved to be heard by an impartial jury before the FCC commissioners demanded payment.

“No one denies the Commission’s authority to enforce laws requiring telecommunications companies like AT&T to protect sensitive customer data,” read the Fifth Circuit’s decision in AT&T v. FCC. “But the Commission must do so consistent with our Constitution’s guarantees of an Article III [judicial] decisionmaker and a jury trial.” 

On August 15, 1971, Richard Nixon interrupted Sunday-night television to announce the New Economic Policy. With the Vietnam War winding down, Nixon argued, the economy required federal action to deliver what he called “a new prosperity without war.” Nixon declared that night, “We must create more and better jobs; we must stop the rise in the cost of living; we must protect the dollar from the attacks of international money speculators.”

His policy froze wages and prices for 90 days and thawed a restraint on Washington’s management of money by suspending gold convertibility for foreign governments and central banks.

One policy froze the prices Americans could charge one another. The other released the government from the rule that forced it to redeem its monetary promises. Both followed the same instinct: when the signal becomes inconvenient, suppress it and escape the discipline it imposes.

Nixon called the suspension temporary. It was not.

Broken Promises

Friedrich Hayek had named the vulnerability 28 years before Nixon acted. Writing in 1943, in an essay later collected in Individualism and Economic Order, he granted that “the gold standard as we knew it undoubtedly had some grave defects.” Gold arrived too slowly to track real demand for money, producing deflation before new supply arrived and excess once it did. But the defects were not the point. Gold gave the world an international currency answerable to no single government, a monetary policy that was largely automatic and therefore predictable, and money supply adjustments that generally moved in the right direction. Hayek’s answer was not managerial discretion but a better rule: a currency anchored to a broad basket of commodities rather than one metal, governed automatically, and explicitly not a license to freeze any individual price along the way.

Seventeen years later, in December 1960, economist Robert Triffin told the Joint Economic Committee that the system carried the seeds of its own collapse. The world needed dollars abroad, pushed out by military spending, foreign aid, and capital outflows. Every dollar that left made it less plausible that the United States could redeem them all in gold at $35 an ounce. 

Later that decade, the dominoes began to fall. The London Gold Pool, a coalition of central banks trying to defend that price through coordinated selling, collapsed in 1968. Across the English Channel, France spent the back half of the decade converting its dollar holdings into gold, at one point sending a warship to New York to collect the gold. American gold reserves peaked in 1949 at 21,708 metric tons. That August night when Nixon spoke, they stood at 9,069, a fall of some 58 percent.

Treasury Secretary John Connally had been arguing for months that the old policy of benign neglect toward the dollar’s slide had run its course, and Nixon agreed. Meeting with Nixon two weeks before the announcement, Connally predicted, “We may never go back to it. I suspect we never will.” Nixon called the move a defense of the dollar and an attack on speculators. It was, in function if not in name, the opposite: a default, dressed in the language of a temporary suspension. Bretton Woods ended in all but name by 1973, and the dollar has floated on nothing but promises ever since. What replaced the rule was the discretion of whoever held the job next.

By the fall of 1971, with an election about a year out, Nixon was leaning on Arthur Burns, his own appointee to chair the Federal Reserve, to keep money loose. Burns obliged. Tapes declassified decades later show a Fed chairman reporting rate cuts to the president like a subordinate delivering good news, and a money supply that grew faster in 1972 than in either of the two preceding years.

Nixon won in a landslide. The country spent the rest of the decade paying for it, in double-digit inflation and stagflation.

The real lesson of 1971 was never about gold. It was about what happens when the person guarding the currency answers to the person spending it.

The Same Test, 55 Years Later

Since 1971, the Fed’s independence has been questioned many times. Donald Trump had no gold window to close, so he went after the guard instead, a guard he had appointed himself in his first term. Jerome Powell spent most of 2025 as the public target of a president demanding lower interest rates. When Powell refused to bend, a Justice Department criminal investigation opened into cost overruns at the Fed’s building renovation. Trump also moved against the Board itself. He attempted to fire Governor Lisa Cook in August 2025, the first such attempt in the Fed’s 111-year history.

In a video statement, Powell warned of the pressure the Fed was under. He stated, “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.” The Department closed the investigation in April 2026, handing what remained to the Fed’s own inspector general. Two months later, the Supreme Court blocked Trump’s first attempt to fire Lisa Cook by a single vote, 5-4, on the same day it affirmed Trump’s firing of an FTC commissioner. 

Powell’s term as chair ended in May but, for the first time since 1948, the former chair stayed on the Board as an ordinary governor. His replacement, Kevin Warsh, walked into the job promising independence and a hard line on inflation. He arrived with his own ties to the White House. His father-in-law, Ronald Lauder, has been one of Trump’s closest friends since Wharton; he is credited with reigniting the Greenland debate and gave $5 million to a pro-Trump super PAC.

Warsh, to his credit, held the line. Two meetings in, he has held rates at 3.50 to 3.75 percent against a president who is pushing for cuts. Three regional Fed presidents, Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan, dissented anyway, arguing for a hike in an attempt to temper inflation sooner. AIER’s own Monetary Rules Report found 11 of 12 standard rules pointing higher than where Warsh has held; the original Taylor rule prescribes the highest target rate, at 5.91 percent. Warsh is refusing the president’s cuts and still sitting more than two points below what that rule would require. Resisting pressure is not the same as following a rule.

But Burns did not cave in his first two meetings either. He caved in year two, once the approaching 1972 election made Nixon want loose money badly enough to ask for it outright. That incentive is forming again, on a shorter clock. Trump is not on the ballot in November, but his majority is, and since 1934 the president’s party has lost an average of 28 House seats during the midterms. A soft economy heading into them is exactly the condition that makes a president want lower rates. 

That is the institutional danger Hayek saw. His objection to discretion was not that every manager would use it badly. It was that a system governed by judgment leaves the currency exposed to a president who wants something from it. Hayek’s point was that the currency should not have to depend on either.

The AIER Everyday Price Index (EPI) declined 0.15 percent in July 2026, marking its second consecutive monthly decrease. The back-to-back declines are notable: the last time the EPI fell for two or more consecutive months was in the fall of 2024. Despite the latest easing, everyday prices remain substantially higher than a year ago, with the index up 5.47 percent on a year-over-year basis. Price movements were also broadly tilted upward beneath the headline decline: 18 EPI categories increased in July, five declined, and one was unchanged.

The largest monthly increases occurred in recreational reading materials, purchase, subscription, and rental of video, and intracity transportation. Those gains were more than offset by declines concentrated in several categories, led by admissions to movies, theaters, and concerts, prescription drugs, and motor fuel. Thus, July’s modest overall decline reflected relatively large price decreases in a handful of components rather than broadly falling prices: an important distinction given that three-quarters of the EPI’s individual categories actually became more expensive during the month.

AIER Everyday Price Index vs. US Consumer Price Index (NSA, 1987 = 100)

(Source: Bloomberg Finance, LP)

Additionally, on August 12, 2026, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the July 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. 

Headline CPI rose 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in July after falling 0.4 percent in June. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, lifted 0.2 percent after remaining unchanged in June.

July 2026 US CPI headline and core month-over-month (2016 – present)

(Source: Bloomberg Finance, LP)

Consumer prices in July reflected falling energy costs alongside modest increases in shelter and food. Energy declined 1.5 percent after plunging 5.7 percent in June, led by a 2.9 percent drop in gasoline prices. Natural gas rose 0.7 percent and electricity edged up 0.1 percent. Shelter increased just 0.1 percent for a second consecutive month but accounted for roughly two-thirds of the overall CPI increase. Rent and owners’ equivalent rent each rose 0.3 percent, while lodging away from home fell 2.8 percent.

Food prices rose just 0.1 percent, while food at home declined 0.1 percent. Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs fell 0.7 percent, fruits and vegetables and dairy each slipped 0.1 percent, while nonalcoholic beverages rose 0.9 percent. Food away from home increased 0.3 percent, including a 0.4 percent rise in limited-service meals.

Core CPI rose 0.2 percent after being unchanged in June. Medical care increased 0.4 percent, airline fares climbed 2.2 percent, communication rose 0.6 percent, and used cars and trucks increased 0.4 percent. Prescription drugs fell 0.8 percent and motor vehicle insurance declined another 0.3 percent. Overall, July showed somewhat firmer core inflation but continued softness in energy and grocery prices, with shelter inflation remaining unusually subdued.

June 2026 US CPI headline and core year-over-year (2016 – present)

(Source: Bloomberg Finance, LP)

Grocery inflation held at 2.7 percent over the twelve months through July, but the underlying categories varied considerably. Fruits and vegetables climbed 5.1 percent and nonalcoholic beverages rose 4.1 percent, while cereals and bakery products increased 2.7 percent and meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 1.9 percent. Dairy prices moved against the broader trend, falling 0.5 percent. Restaurant prices continued to outpace groceries, rising 3.4 percent overall, with similar increases at both full- and limited-service establishments.

The much larger annual increases remained concentrated in energy. Energy prices stood 14.7 percent above July 2025 levels, primarily reflecting a 24.6 percent rise in gasoline. Electricity and natural gas posted considerably smaller but still meaningful increases of 4.2 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively. Those figures also highlight the distinction between the recent direction of prices and their level relative to a year ago: energy has fallen sharply over the past two months but remains substantially more expensive on a twelve-month basis.

Elsewhere, inflation was comparatively restrained. Core CPI increased 2.5 percent over the year, with shelter up 3.2 percent, recreation 2.6 percent, household furnishings and operations 2.2 percent, and medical care 1.7 percent. Airline fares remained the conspicuous exception, surging 25.5 percent from a year earlier and standing far outside the range of most other major core categories.

July’s inflation data strengthened the case for the Federal Reserve to remain on hold in September without eliminating the possibility of another rate increase. Headline CPI rose just 0.1 percent for the month and slowed to 3.4 percent year over year, while core CPI increased 0.2 percent and eased to 2.5 percent annually, matching its slowest pace since early 2021. Shorter-term measures were similarly encouraging: annualized core inflation ran at 1.6 percent over three months and 2.4 percent over six months. Energy again provided substantial relief, with gasoline falling 2.9 percent and energy subtracting roughly 0.11 percentage point from headline CPI. Grocery prices declined 0.1 percent, while shelter rose only 0.1 percent. Some earlier price pressures also appear to be unwinding: hotel rates fell sharply, vehicle insurance declined for the sixth time in seven months, prescription drugs dropped 0.8 percent, and several food and metal-sensitive categories softened. Core goods, however, rose 0.2 percent, with used vehicles up 0.4 percent and notable strength in computers and other electronics amid the continuing memory-chip shortage.

The details were somewhat less uniformly benign than the headline figures suggest. Core services rose 0.2 percent after being flat in June, rents accelerated to roughly 0.3 percent, and airline fares jumped 2.2 percent. Inflation breadth also increased: about 53 percent of core CPI components registered annualized inflation above 2 percent, compared with a 42 percent average during the second quarter, while the share running above 4 percent climbed from 31 percent to 41 percent. Even so, several discretionary service categories remained weak, and the fading effects of earlier energy, food, metals, and tourism-related shocks point toward continued disinflation. Estimates based on the CPI and related producer-price inputs suggest July core PCE could rise roughly 0.2 percent, although that measure has generally been running somewhat hotter than core CPI.

Markets interpreted the report as reducing the urgency for additional monetary tightening, particularly following July’s weak employment report. The Fed nevertheless faces competing signals: underlying inflation is approaching multi-year lows and hiring has weakened, but inflation remains above target, price increases broadened somewhat in July, and renewed geopolitical pressure on oil represents an important upside risk. With another CPI report and another employment report due before the September 15 – 16 FOMC meeting, the July data favor patience rather than a decisive policy turn: they make an immediate hike harder to justify, but leave the decision sensitive to incoming inflation, labor market, and energy price developments.

Last weekend, I drove from Massachusetts to Washington, DC. Somewhere along those 450 miles, my license plate was almost certainly photographed, time-stamped, and logged into a private database maybe ten, or even a hundred times. I honestly can’t tell you how many I passed, and that’s the problem. 

Flock Safety, the (nominally private) company behind most of the cameras, operates in more than 2,000 cities. No warrant, no suspicion, and no notice was required to record my trip. I did nothing wrong. I was tracked anyway. 

This is not a speed camera or a red-light camera. When Atlantic City expanded its license plate readers, the department put fixed cameras on every entrance and exit to the city so that every vehicle coming in or out gets scanned. Parking lots, expressways, and intersections have become de facto police stops. Networked across thousands of towns, those individual snapshots stop being individual occasions. They become a record of your life, a “literal and intimate roadmap of private life” — where you work, where you shop, which doctor you see; whether you attend worship or a protest or a firing range. As one respondent in the research put it, wholesale surveillance “is not simply a more efficient way for the police to do what they’ve always done. It’s a new police power.” 

Now, do the cameras help solve crimes? Sometimes. But the evidence here is a lot weaker than the sales pitch. That same Atlantic City expansion, one of the only rigorous evaluations we have, found that blanketing the city’s entrances did not reduce violent crime. There were some reductions in shootings and car thefts, and the technology mostly sat siloed in a few investigative units.

A 2025 review by some of the biggest names in evidence-based policing concluded that after decades of research, we still cannot establish whether license plate readers are cost-effective at all, because the effect depends entirely on how a department implements them. So, taxpayers are compelled by city councils to pay a recurring subscription for a system whose returns are unproven — but whose violations are constant.

Accountability normally disciplines surveillance. Private companies that misuse our data lose our trust and our patronage; they can be sued and fined. Government data collection is disciplined by the Constitution: warrants, courts, elections. Flock is a hybrid that slips both checks, and that is exactly what makes it dangerous. The people being watched are not the customers. Drivers cannot opt out of being scanned, and the police department or city council decides whether you’ll be a user. And there is no constitutional discipline because a private company does the collecting, so the government gets the data without the Fourth Amendment process to constrain it. Legal scholars have a name for the government buying its way around the warrant requirement: data laundering. 

No regulatory discipline is waiting to fill the gap, either. Adoption of this technology has completely outpaced the rules. Researchers who interviewed police leadership and Flock representatives found no standardization, no independent audits, and policies being worked out long after the cameras were already tracking citizens. The agencies themselves admit they are running on “best practices” because there is no law. An ACLU lawsuit revealed that ICE was using a private license plate database containing billions of scans to target people for deportation — after a similar project by the Department of Homeland Security was scuttled as clearly unconstitutional.

Police are quick to say Flock cameras make investigations easier, and some citizens say they have nothing to hide and have done nothing wrong, but the definition of “wrong” can be changed. Freedom is not just being left alone today. Living under someone’s arbitrary power to track you whenever they choose is itself the harm, even before the power is abused (which it absolutely is, everywhere, every day). Jeremy Bentham’s panopticon, designed for prisoners, is now pointed at everyone. People who know they are being watched start policing themselves; they surrender autonomy. They think twice about the gun store, the clinic, the protest, the mosque. Surveillance itself is a blow to freedom. 

The constitutional debate continues. Courts have so far said a license plate in public carries no reasonable expectation of privacy, and for one officer seeing one plate once, fine. But that logic was built for the world before the nationwide mass surveillance network, and endless, near-free logging of data. A permanent, searchable record of every trip you take is a difference in kind, not in degree. The Supreme Court already recognized in Carpenter that tracking the whole of a person’s movements is a search, and generally requires a specific warrant. In Chatrie, SCOTUS recently ruled that accessing cell phone location history is a search. A camera grid that can collect and reconstruct geographic location for every driver, without reasonable suspicion or probable cause, violates individuals’ reasonable expectation of privacy under the Fourth Amendment. Collecting mass data is not an exception to the rule. It is a direct violation. 

Every query of a Flock database should require a judicial warrant. Independent audits should be a condition of any contract, and contracts that won’t meet those terms should be voided. A free society can live with some unsolved crimes. It cannot live with an unaccountable, permanent, searchable registry of constitutionally private and protected activities.

In early July, the Federal Reserve named the leaders of five task forces charged with reviewing how it conducts monetary policy. At the helm of the inflation task force are Harvard economist Greg Mankiw, Nobel laureate Thomas Sargent, and William White, former chief economist at the Bank for International Settlements. Chairman Kevin Warsh asked them to “examine the drivers of inflation, first principles, and weigh the full range of ideas for delivering price stability in a changing economy.” That charge is broad enough to cover an option the Fed has never seriously tried: targeting the total amount Americans spend rather than the prices they pay. It should. 

Consider 2021. Prices began climbing early that year, and for months then-Chair Jerome Powell called the increase “transitory,” a blip from pandemic supply snarls that would fade on its own. By November, with prices still rising, Powell told Congress it was time to “retire” the word. Weeks later, the Fed’s December projections still put 2022 inflation at 2.7 percent. It came in at 4.7 percent, nearly double. The Fed had every piece of data anyone could want and spent most of a year misreading what was in front of it.

The problem isn’t careless officials. The Fed’s approach makes them answer a hard question before they can act: is inflation coming from the producing side, or from people spending more? The Fed needs to decide if it’s the former (a supply-driven shock that the Fed can’t fix) or the latter (a demand-driven change that the Fed can influence). In 2021, the Fed had to decide whether rising prices meant supply chains sorting themselves out or an economy spending faster than it could produce. That call is difficult to get right in real time. The Fed got it wrong for the better part of a year, and households paid for the Fed’s error as their savings and paychecks lost value.

Targeting spending sidesteps the question. Rather than focus on a price index and judge, shock by shock, which price changes deserve a response, the Fed would aim at the total dollar value of everything the country spends, what economists call nominal income, and keep it growing at a steady, predictable rate. If spending stays on that path, no one has to rule on whether a particular price change will last. Instead, they simply ask if total spending is growing too fast, too slow, or about right. Had the Fed been steering spending in 2021 instead of parsing the nature of the inflation, data would have shown that nominal income after COVID-19 grew at a faster pace than normal, pointing to persistent (not transitory) high inflation rates. 

This task force’s three members are unusually well positioned to press the case — not simply a random assortment of credentialed names. 

Mankiw, who wrote what’s become the most widely used undergraduate economic textbook and chaired the Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush, has spent decades writing the standard account of how mainstream macroeconomics thinks about inflation, which makes him a natural voice for testing that account’s limits. Sargent, a New York University economist who won the Nobel Prize in 2011, built his career on the idea that policy works best when it follows a clear, credible rule rather than case-by-case discretion, exactly the kind of framework question this task force exists to ask. White, former chief economist at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the central bankers’ central bank, has spent years arguing that narrow inflation targeting missed the imbalances that led to the 2008 financial crisis. He is perhaps the panel’s most persistent critic of the status quo before it even convenes. The panel members demonstrate establishment credibility with a documented record of independent, sometimes unpopular judgment.

Interestingly, Warsh didn’t ask the three to fine-tune how the Fed explains its current approach. He asked them to examine “first principles” and weigh “the full range of ideas.” A review with that charge has no good reason to bury spending targets in a footnote next to the small adjustments the Fed has already made. For example, Sargent has spent much of his career arguing for rules over discretion; getting spending is a simple rule. A panel with his name on it has the unique opportunity to push the Fed to think outside its box.

None of this guarantees an outcome. The task force could conclude that the Fed needs better messaging, or a modest change like the one made in 2020, and move on. That would be a missed opportunity. The 2021 episode was not a story about a Fed short on information. It was a story about a target that required the Fed to answer a difficult question, and the answer arrived in grocery bills and rent checks. This task force has the mandate and the people to ask a bigger question. The Fed does not need to get better at guessing whether a price increase is a response to a nominal or real shock. It needs a target that does not depend on the guess.