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The government has a habit of chasing simple villains for deeply complicated problems. Every few years, politicians point to either drug manufacturers, insurers, hospitals, pharmacies, or “middlemen” as key to finally lowering drug costs and cleaning up the healthcare system. 

Most recently, their scapegoat for high drug prices has become pharmacy benefit managers, or PBMs. PBMs operate as the middlemen between drug manufacturers, insurance companies, pharmacies, and employer health plans. They negotiate rebates with pharmaceutical companies, determine which drugs are covered by insurance plans, and help manage prescription drug benefits for millions of Americans. In recent years, concerns have grown about PBM business practices and increasing vertical integration within the healthcare industry. Many of the largest PBMs are owned by or affiliated with major health insurers and pharmacy chains, creating complex corporate structures that place multiple parts of the prescription drug supply chain under common ownership. Critics argue that these arrangements can create conflicts of interest and reduce market competition, while supporters contend they help coordinate care and lower costs through economies of scale. Because they sit in the middle of the prescription drug supply chain, PBMs have become powerful players in the debate over healthcare costs and transparency. 

In February, Congress passed major PBM reforms through the Consolidated Appropriations Act (CAA), requiring expanded reporting on rebates, fees, spread pricing arrangements, and financial relationships throughout the prescription drug supply chain. The law imposed substantial new oversight and transparency requirements on PBMs operating in both Medicare and the commercial market. Now, before those reforms have even had time to fully take effect, the Department of Labor (DOL) has proposed a second, overlapping disclosure regime targeting PBMs that serve self-insured employer plans. 

The DOL’s proposed PBM Fee Disclosure Rule would require PBMs and affiliated consultants to disclose extensive information regarding direct and indirect compensation under Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) fiduciary standards. The proposal is framed as a transparency measure. Transparency itself is not the problem. The problem is that Congress already established a broad federal transparency framework through the CAA just months ago. 

Instead of allowing those reforms to be implemented and evaluated, the DOL is building a parallel compliance structure with separate timelines, reporting expectations, and disclosure obligations. 

The problem of bureaucracy, which creates layers of overlapping functions, is well documented. Gary Hamel and Michele Zanini of the Management Lab and co-authors of Humanocracy estimate that the cost of excess bureaucracy in the US economy amounts to more than $3 trillion in lost economic output, or about 17 percent of GDP. 

This effect is no less significant with PBMs, who would now have to navigate overlapping systems governing many of the same financial arrangements. In some cases, the same transaction could require disclosure under multiple regulatory frameworks using different definitions and standards. 

To keep up with the layered compliance requirements, it takes staffing, legal review, auditing infrastructure, reporting systems, and operational restructuring. Large PBMs will likely absorb those costs. Smaller and mid-market PBMs may not, effectively pushing some out of the market altogether and leaving even more power concentrated among the largest players. 

Ironically, that could undermine the very accountability policymakers say they want. Less competition rarely leads to lower prices or greater responsiveness. It creates markets where fewer institutions dominate more of the system while smaller innovators and regional actors disappear under administrative burden. 

Supporters of the DOL proposal will argue that stronger transparency standards are necessary because PBMs remain opaque and influential actors in the healthcare system. They are not entirely wrong, but they’re failing to recognize that Congress already tackled that issue with CAA. For example, the CAA already requires PBMs to report information related to rebates, fees, spread pricing arrangements, and compensation structures throughout the prescription drug supply chain. The DOL proposal would require many of the same entities to disclose overlapping compensation and financial relationship data under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) framework. Two new sets of rules that effectively do the same things are not useful in practice. 

The better approach now is to allow the CAA reforms to take effect, assess whether meaningful gaps remain, and coordinate future oversight in a way that strengthens accountability without creating more bureaucracy and unintentionally reducing competition. 

Washington wanted more transparency in the PBM market. Fair enough. But if regulators are not careful, they may end up creating a healthcare system where only the largest firms can afford to survive, competition shrinks as smaller players are pushed out, and the high costs policymakers set out to address become even more entrenched.

Vacancy taxes are a popular idea among that segment of the left that is still resisting supply-side reforms as the economically literate solution to the housing crunch. But the number of perfectly decent housing units sitting vacant year-round in desirable markets is vanishingly small, and owners will respond to vacancy taxes in undesirable ways too.

Vacancy taxes have been in vogue recently. France has a nationwide housing vacancy tax, Ottawa implemented one a few years ago, Washington, DC has enacted a vacancy tax on both residential and commercial properties, and San Francisco has an active commercial vacancy tax.

Do these vacancy taxes reduce rents? The best available evidence says no. These taxes do appear to reduce vacancies, but it is unclear whether they also reduce housing supply. After all, one way to avoid a housing vacancy tax is to reclassify a structure as nonresidential, such as by removing the kitchen.

Some people seem to be under the impression that landlords are hoarding a large number of long-term vacant units for no apparent reason. Supposedly they do this because they are “speculating” on the vacant units. But if you’re speculating on housing, why wouldn’t you rent it out and make some extra income while you’re seeing if the underlying value will rise?

In fact, when more housing units become vacant, rents fall. This is an extremely clear relationship, validated by sophisticated scholarship as well as the plain evidence of one’s eyes. Here’s a chart from the left-leaning Center for Economic and Policy Research (Figure 1). High vacancy rates are followed by declines in rental costs.

Figure 1: Vacancy Rates and Change in Rental Costs

And here are two charts of Austin, Texas recently posted by Nolan Gray on X (Figure 2). Vacancy rates in Austin fell dramatically right before rents rose equally dramatically. Then as rents fell back, vacancy rates rose again.

Figure 2: Vacancy Rates and Rents in Austin, Texas

When housing providers have vacant units, they cut rents to attract renters. That’s just basic economics.

In most cases, it makes no sense to hold property and pay property taxes and insurance on it while making no income from it, even in the absence of vacancy taxes. When Ottawa enacted a vacancy tax, it found that it applied to only a few thousand units. As of 2023, 4,140 dwelling units had to pay the vacancy tax there, amounting to 1.2 percent of the housing stock to which the law applies and 1.0 percent of the total housing stock. Glenn Gower frames the tax as a success because between 2022 and 2023, 1,602 previously vacant housing units became occupied. But even if we assume that every single one of these newly occupied units was driven to the market by the vacancy tax, that’s just 0.4 percent of Ottawa’s housing stock, with an infinitesimal effect on rents under any reasonable assumptions about the elasticity of housing demand.

It’s unclear whether vacancy taxes will even reduce rents on net. Will housing providers treat vacancy taxes paid as another cost of business that they must recoup from their tenants? If so, they may raise rents on already-occupied units to cover the cost of the vacancy tax.

In fact, there are a few rare cases when it does make sense to leave a unit vacant. For example, if the unit is substandard and requires massive, costly renovations that one cannot yet afford to perform, it may be better to keep the unit vacant rather than undermine one’s reputation and brand in the community by renting out a substandard unit that elicits complaints and perhaps even unfavorable regulatory attention. Thus, a vacancy tax may disproportionately force substandard units into the market.

Second homes are also typically vacant for a majority of the year, making them potentially subject to vacancy taxes. Zohran Mamdani’s pied-a-terre tax in New York is apparently intended to deter people from having second homes in the city, with the idea that these homes will be made available to full-time residents.

But let’s think through the consequences of deterring high-net-worth individuals from visiting and spending time in New York. How will these changes affect the important retail, hospitality, entertainment, and arts industries in the city? Will the tenants helped by a small number of second homes’ coming to market lose more in wages and employment from the second-order effects of the tax?

One final reason why a housing provider might hold a unit back from the market is that rent controls and eviction protections could mean that the rental income would not cover the operating cost of renting out the unit. These are reasons to roll back rent control and eviction protections rather than force housing providers to take losses. After all, if the owners of rental buildings find that their line of work has negative returns, they will try to get out of it. And that could mean, alongside deferred maintenance, condoization, demolitions, and residential-to-commercial conversions, a decline in multifamily structure property values, putting more of the property tax burden on everyone else in the city. Indeed, New York’s tightening of rent stabilization in 2019 has done just this, even playing a role in forcing Signature Bank into FDIC receivership and New York Community Bancorp into near-collapse.

What about vacancy taxes on commercial properties, as Washington, DC and San Francisco have enacted and Tacoma, Washington is considering? High commercial vacancy rates in the 2020s are a legacy of the pandemic and the rise of work-from-home. Commercial rents and values have already dropped to rock-bottom in much of the country. Will punishing these owners with vacancy taxes help the situation? Owners of vacant commercial buildings need more cash flow and collateral to finance conversions, not less. (It’s also not clear that owners will comply with commercial vacancy taxes: San Francisco’s commercial vacancy tax has resulted in widespread underreporting.)

The solution to vacant commercial buildings is to reform local zoning rules and permitting processes to speed conversion of these structures to other uses. If necessary, cities could also consider tools like land-value taxation or tax-increment financing (TIF) to reduce the extent to which property taxation disincentivizes value-increasing improvements. These solutions face their own limitations, from the difficulty of assessing the unimproved value of urban land to the potential for TIF to be a tool of cronyism, but at least they rely on improving the financial strength of partners in development, not harming it.

Even if vacancy taxes work exactly as designed, they are not a major solution to the housing crunch. Their positive and negative effects are generally small. The biggest problem with vacancy taxation is its use as a totem by people who oppose housing solutions that would make a real difference, namely, making it easier and less costly to build housing.

America was the first country to recognize copyrights and patents in its constitution, and industries built on intellectual property produce over 40 percent of US GDP whilst supporting tens of millions of jobs. Now, however, a handful of Supreme Court decisions have excluded entire categories of invention from patentability. US investment in diagnostic technologies fell $9.3 billion below expected levels, as a result of depriving American innovators of rights and protections enjoyed by their counterparts in Asia and Europe. 

In one much-cited example, a molecular diagnostics company developed non-invasive prenatal testing that allowed fetal DNA to be collected from the mother’s blood, replacing invasive in-utero testing that risks pregnancy loss. The judge called it a “meritorious invention” but was compelled to invalidate patents because the circulating DNA is a natural phenomenon, and the test was well understood. The discovery was beyond the reach of patent eligibility. Competitors were immediately empowered to duplicate the technique.

The result has been a decline in innovation, ceding America’s global leadership in critical areas like medical diagnostics to our foreign partners and rivals. The bipartisan Patent Eligibility Restoration Act of 2025 (PERA) attempts to rectify this by clarifying what inventions can be protected under the US Patent Act Section 101. PERA is before the Senate Judiciary Committee and would define clear statutory exceptions to patentable subject matter that would replace broad and vague judge-made exceptions. 

The Patent Act allows useful and new manufactured products, machines, processes, compositions of matter, and improvements to these to be patented, so long as they are novel and non-obvious. The goal is to incentivize inventors, researchers, and investors to allocate the substantial time, resources, and talent it takes to bring about scientific and technological advancements by granting them a temporary monopoly. 

Unlike trade secrets, patents are publicly disclosed, allowing anyone with the means to replicate and reproduce the inventions after the patent expires, or to license them from the owner during the patent period. Protections against infringement give innovators confidence to share inventions with manufacturers, distributors, and other commercial partners.

Historically strong patent rights have made America both a leader in pharmaceutical research that creates new cures, as well as a leader in speedy and abundant availability of generic drugs, which account for over 90 percent of US prescriptions. Manufacturers would have nothing to replicate if inventors and investors did not have the incentive and ability to recoup R&D investments. Patents also encourage inventors to make useful improvements to their existing works to secure new patents.

By 2014, the Supreme Court held that abstract ideas, laws of nature, and natural phenomena could not be patented even though these categories are not mentioned in the Patent Act. Alice, Mayo, and Myriad were well-intentioned rulings. Since these are discoveries rather than inventions, the court reasoned that making them patentable subjects would restrict or penalize use of the building blocks of human ingenuity. This would defeat IP’s constitutional purpose of promoting “the Progress of Science and useful Arts.” Patent claims tied to one of these categories must include an “inventive concept” placing them outside the banned category. Since these rulings, medical diagnostics, certain biotechnologies, and software and AI tools have become difficult if not impossible to patent despite their economic value and the substantial investment and research it often takes to discover them.

PERA addresses the Supreme Court’s rationale while encouraging innovation. It would replace the Court’s broad non-patentable subject categories with narrower statutory prohibitions against patenting unmodified genes and natural compounds, human thoughts, laws of nature, mathematical formulas and abstract methods. PERA affirms the patent-eligibility of diagnostic tests, extracted chemical compounds, modified genes, and computer processes requiring a “machine or manufacture.” By restricting patent protection to novel, non-obvious innovations, it maintains guardrails against weak or frivolous patents.

​Computer processes using standard programming or off-the-shelf Large Language Models (LLMs) remain difficult to patent. To qualify, computer processes must offer something novel to programmers of ordinary skill—beyond what exists in GitHub repositories, academic papers, or open-source documentation. Applicants must publicly disclose their algorithms, code, and training methodologies. This transparency encourages developers to innovate “around” existing work without infringing, similar to how Instagram replicated TikTok’s “Reels” and Google replicated Microsoft Word to create “Docs.”

The EU and China did not copy America’s 2012-13 judicial restrictions on patenting diagnostics. Since 2012, investment in diagnostics in the US has dropped $9.3 billion below what it would have otherwise been. Europe’s In-Vitro Diagnostics market, which was in decline until 2013, has subsequently grown 2.7 percent yearly on average. Today, 40 percent of molecular diagnostic kit manufacturers are in Asia, while the United States is home to just 29 percent — on par with Europe even though the United States has a significant lead in other innovation metrics. If broad patent eligibility for diagnostics stymied innovation, we would expect the opposite result.

Unlike the United States, the EU and China did not restrict patenting diagnostics in 2012–13. Europe’s In-Vitro Diagnostics market grew 2.7 percent annually following that period. Because 74 percent of investors prioritize patent eligibility, Supreme Court decisions likely drove investment away from U.S. diagnostic research firms toward Europe and Asia. Today, Asia hosts 40 percent of molecular diagnostic kit manufacturers, while the United States hosts only 29 percent. If broad patent eligibility hindered innovation, we would expect the opposite result. 

​Protecting novel, useful innovations from broad, sweeping exemptions will strengthen America’s patent system and economic competitiveness. Conversely, ceding leadership to China and Europe through overbroad IP restrictions threatens jobs and opportunities for American innovators, entrepreneurs, and researchers. 

One of the most familiar diagrams in introductory economics — perhaps second only to the famous supply and demand graph — is the classic “guns versus butter” tradeoff. Its ubiquity can make it seem almost too familiar to warrant much thought. Yet its deeper history carries a timeless lesson worth revisiting.

The guns versus butter graph illustrates a fundamental economic reality: in a world of scarce resources — land and raw materials, labor, and capital — devoting more resources to producing one good necessarily means producing less of another, all else equal. Because resources typically have multiple uses, the true cost of any choice is the value of the next-best alternative forgone, known as its opportunity cost. A production possibilities frontier, the broader category to which the guns versus butter graph belongs, neatly visualizes this constraint by showing the menu of feasible combinations available to an individual, firm, or entire society.

The specific example of a tradeoff between guns and butter depicts a societal decision made by governments, whether through democratic processes or dictatorship. While the classic example may feel somewhat dated today (a more contemporary version might be military drones versus smartphones), it still captures a timeless reality: producing more military goods necessarily means devoting fewer resources to consumer goods.

Consistent with this theory, a survey of the empirical literature on the economic effects of military spending by Dunne and Tian finds that the predominant conclusion is that “military expenditure has a negative effect on economic growth.” In times of war, military personnel and civilians bear the ultimate and most tragic costs. Beyond this human toll, however, the guns versus butter analogy reminds us that war also carries significant economic costs. 

The trade-off represents a static snapshot where resources are fixed in the short run. But, in the long term, technological improvements, driven by investment, better institutions, access to markets, and innovation, expand the production possibilities frontier, allowing societies to produce more of both guns and butter. As the US experience during WWII demonstrates, it is the entrepreneurial dynamism, economic flexibility, and material abundance brought by open and competitive markets that ultimately provide the strongest foundation for national defense. Conversely, restrictions on technology, resource shocks, erosion of the rule of law, weakened property rights, and trade barriers can shrink the frontier, reducing the production of both military and civilian goods. 

Paul Samuelson’s popular textbook Economics (1948) was the first apparent depiction of a guns versus butter graph, making it a permanent staple of introductory courses. Samuelson was introduced to the first production possibilities frontier graph, depicting the tradeoff between two goods, by his Harvard professor Gottfried von Harberler, a student of Friedrich von Wieser and Ludwig von Mises, who had introduced it in his book Theory of International Trade (1936).

Yet the underlying insight, arguably, reaches back much further. In Book IV of Wealth of Nations, Adam Smith meticulously documented the economic costs of Britain’s imperialism. Subduing, protecting, and administering far-flung territories had enormous costs and few benefits. Contrary to the prevailing wisdom of his day, he argued that empire, once all the tradeoffs were considered, diminished the wealth of nations rather than increasing it.

Modern scholars have built on Smith’s foundation, adding insights from public choice theory and Austrian economics to “understand state-provided defense in the actual world,” to better appreciate the incentive and knowledge problems and the erosion of domestic liberties that can come from militarism. International relations theory has also questioned the benefits of defensive buildups, given the inherent security dilemma where increasing allocation to “guns” leads other countries to do likewise, leaving all countries in the same relative position defensively, with consumers bearing the costs. James Monroe recognized this (in a letter to John Quincy Adams) following the Treaty of Ghent, observing “The increase of naval armaments on one side upon the lakes, during peace, will necessitate the like increase on the other, and besides causing an aggravation of useless expense to both parties…”

Wikipedia’s entry for the guns versus butter model claims the origin of the analogy traces back to the United States during World War I. That, however, does not appear to hold up. The cited references fail to support it, and extensive searches of variations of the term on Newspapers.com and Google Ngrams do not turn up results that can confirm those origins. Rather, the historical evidence suggests another, far more sinister, origin.  

The phrase appears to have originated in Nazi Germany (referred to as “kanonen und butter” in German). As Adam Tooze demonstrates in Wages of Destruction, living standards in the Weimar Republic — and even more so under the Nazis — lagged behind those in Britain and the United States. Hitler’s drive for territorial expansion to secure land and resources ran headlong into the economic reality captured by the guns versus butter tradeoff: building a massive military required significant sacrifices from German consumers.

To encourage those sacrifices, the Third Reich launched a propaganda campaign — widely reported in US newspapers — urging Germans to patriotically accept lower living standards, including higher prices, fewer consumer goods, and rationing, in order to produce more Panzers and Messerschmitt Bf 109 fighters for the Fatherland. In 1936, Joseph Goebbels declared, “We can do without butter, but, despite all our love of peace, not without arms. One cannot shoot with butter, but with guns.” Hermann Göring put it even more bluntly: “Guns will make us powerful; butter will only make us fat.” Mussolini soon appropriated the same rhetoric as a patriotic slogan.

The British diplomat and journalist R. H. Bruce Lockhart published a 1938 memoir of his travels through Europe, Guns or Butter, in which he classified countries as either “butter” or “gun” countries. Butter countries enjoyed peaceful societies and higher standards of living, while gun countries sacrificed living standards to pursue military buildups. Even in 1938, Lockhart recognized from his travels that “Germany put guns before butter.”

Adam Tooze notes that estimates of German economic growth between 1935 and 1938 indicate that direct and indirect military expenditures accounted for two-thirds of the increase in national output, compared with just 25 percent for private consumption. Japan, too, pursued resource-driven territorial expansion and chose guns over butter. As Michael Barnhart writes in Japan Prepares for Total War, “One route did exist which avoided reliance on foreign nations or occupied areas, was politically possible, and was especially attractive to the Planning Board. Still harsher controls could be imposed on consumption within the Japanese Empire.”

And the sacrifice made by consumers wasn’t limited to the Axis powers. The Allies were also required to make drastic wartime sacrifices in response. In The Journal of Economic History, economic historian Robert Higgs writes that “during the war the economy was a huge arsenal in which the well-being of consumers deteriorated…” Economists Steve Horwitz and Michael McPhillips supplement this with archival evidence from newspapers and diaries, finding that “the wartime economy actually amounted to a retrogression for many families because they had to supply additional labor, accept inferior goods, and do without many goods altogether as resources were diverted to the war effort and wartime controls constrained the market process.” 

The tradeoff for the Soviet Union was even more devastating, Tooze notes. “…the production [of military equipment] came at the expense of enormous sacrifice on the Soviet home front,” he writes, “where hundreds of thousands if not millions of people starved to death for the sake of the war effort.”

It is this bitter experience that led President Eisenhower to observe:

Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than 30 cities. It is two electric power plants, each serving a town of 60,000 population. It is two fine, fully equipped hospitals. It is some 50 miles of concrete highway. We pay for a single fighter plane with a half million bushels of wheat. We pay for a single destroyer with new homes that could have housed more than 8,000 people.

The guns versus butter tradeoff remains one of the most powerful analytical tools in economics precisely because it forces us to confront an uncomfortable truth: resources are finite, and every choice carries a cost.

The phrase’s apparent origins in Nazi Germany — and its grim application during the 1930s and 1940s — remind us that when governments prioritize guns over butter, the burden falls heaviest on ordinary citizens through lower living standards. Adam Smith recognized this principle in the eighteenth century, famously distilling the ingredients of prosperity to “peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice.” The ultimate lesson of the guns versus butter graph is straightforward: military buildups and war come with real tradeoffs, often at the expense of civilian prosperity and living standards.

In a previous essay coauthored with economist Rahim Taghizadegan, we described “Flag Theory,” a concept referring to how individuals can move themselves, their companies, and their assets to where they are most welcome, optimizing for a combination of tax and lifestyle advantages. In markets, consumers enjoy a variety of goods and services supplied by companies competing on price and quality. Yet, states supply inferior services at higher prices — like any other monopoly.

Flag Theory changes the governance game by suggesting that, despite states monopolizing governance within their territories, individuals can shop among those monopolies by foot-voting to another state’s territory entirely. For this reason, the term Flag Theory is often used interchangeably with “geo-arbitrage,” and I personally also use the terms “governance shopping” or “the market for governance.” The underlying idea between each of the terms is the same: exit relatively worse systems towards better ones.

For those holding all their assets within the same jurisdiction where they work and live (and within their home country), Flag Theory may come across as a phenomenon that only benefits its practitioners, while offering no greater societal benefit. This essay attempts to help the reader see these greater societal benefits.

Governance Shopping and Societal Benefits in Academic Literature

Charles M. Tiebout argued in a 1956 paper that local levels of government are better able to satisfy the “preference pattern for public goods” of mobile “consumer-voters” than national levels of government. “Spatial mobility provides the local public-goods counterpart to the private market’s shopping trip,” he wrote. “In this model and in reality, the city manager or elected official who is not able to keep his costs (taxes) low compared to those of similar communities will find himself out of a job.”

For someone holding the political opinion that maximizing tax revenue, no matter what, is necessarily “good for society” (even when services are subpar), Tiebout competition may sound like a bad idea. But for someone focused instead on maximizing the quality of services while minimizing costs to taxpayers, introducing competition into governance is a welcome change. Producing better governance isn’t exclusively beneficial for Tiebout’s mobile consumer-voters; the native population benefits too.

Albert O. Hirschman’s book Exit, Voice, and Loyalty explored how “member-customers” seek to resolve problems in the decline of firms, organizations and states either by exiting (leaving) or by voicing grievances. Hirschman, like Tiebout, focused his analysis on the benefits to the individual, not to “society.” Yet he understood that:

[…] exit has an essential role to play in restoring quality performance of government, just as in any organization. It will operate either by making the government perform or by bringing it down, but in any event, the jolt provoked by clamorous exit of a respected member is in many situations an indispensable complement to voice.

Barry R. Weingast’s 1995 paper described a concept called market-preserving federalism: an economic system enabling thriving economies, not only through property rights and law of contract but also “a secure political foundation that limits the ability of the state to confiscate wealth.” (18th-century England and 19th-century United States operated as de facto and de jure market-preserving federalist systems respectively.) Weingast argued that jurisdictions under this federalist system thrive by offering “menus of public policies” to attract mobile labor and capital. “The mobility of resources” he wrote, “raises the economic costs to those jurisdictions that might establish certain policies, and they will do so only if the political benefits are worth these and other costs.”

David D. Friedman used an interesting thought experiment in his book The Machinery of Freedom to make the case for privatized defense. We can use the same thought experiment more narrowly to illustrate the social benefits of mobile foot-voters:

Consider our world as it would be if the cost of moving from one country to another were zero. Everyone lives in a housetrailer and speaks the same language. One day, the president of France announces that because of troubles with neighboring countries, new military taxes are being levied and conscription will begin shortly. The next morning the president of France finds himself ruling a peaceful but empty landscape, the population having been reduced to himself, three generals, and twenty-seven war correspondents.

In Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, he wrote that every individual in the market “neither intends to promote the public interest, nor knows how much he is promoting it.” Each individual “intends only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention. Nor is it always the worse for the society that it was no part of it. By pursuing his own interest he frequently promotes that of the society more effectually than when he really intends to promote it” [emphasis mine].

Smith’s invisible hand metaphor explains how individuals pursuing their own interests often produce great public benefit — even if unintentionally.

The idea is to introduce competition to governance, wherever possible, so that policymakers, (heads of state, governors) are forced to produce less-abysmal governance. Knowing that the local population has the power to punish political actors at will — both at the ballot box and, more effectively, by exiting the political system altogether — is likely to keep political ambitions within the range of preferences that the local population is willing to accept.

Consent in Moral and Political Philosophy

Tom W. Bell’s book Your Next Government argues that each of the major approaches to moral philosophy (consequentialist, deontological, and aretaic) treats consent as “at least a prima facie good.” “The virtue of justice”, Bell argues, “constrains us from violating others’ rights without their consent. More generally, consent plays a vital role in cultivating habits of right action. Virtue weakens, withered by inaction, when not exercised through freedom of choice.”

Bell’s full argument is beyond the scope of this essay, but the gist is that consent is hardly binary — consent versus non-consent. Consent is, in fact, a matter of degree. To the extent that transactions move up the “ladder of consent” toward something closer to expressed consent, they hold higher moral justification.

The ladder of consent’s relevance to governance and taxation is that if states are able to fund their activities through more expressed consent rather than merely relying on Jean-Jacques Rousseau’s social contract to justify confiscatory taxation, their actions are more easily justified in moral terms. (On the above graphic, Rousseau’s social contract would qualify as hypothetical consent.) Governments receiving money from foreigners willing to pay for access to many of the same rights and obligations as local residents or citizens should then be seen as a welcome source of income — especially when the cultural practices of the newcomers are not at major odds with those of the locals, and especially when governments can make the case to local taxpayers that sourcing money from abroad will provide them with tax relief.

One final point on consent as it relates to political philosophy is that Rousseau’s own minimum conditions to justify the social contract are not met — according to Rousseau himself. (This is also a point made by Titus Gebel.) Rousseau emphasized the necessity to go back to “an original convention”:

For if there were no prior covenant, where would the obligation be (if the election were not unanimous) for the minority to submit to the choice of the majority, and how could it be right for the votes of a hundred who wanted a master to be binding on ten who did not? The law of the majority vote itself establishes a covenant, and assumes that on one occasion at least there has been unanimity.

In other words, modern states do not derive their political authority from any prior covenant in which every member of a community expressed consent. Thus, to cite Rousseau’s social contract in political discourse to justify most modern forms of taxation is to misuse it. But let’s not kid ourselves — states aren’t going away. The least we can do is emphasize the importance of states finding the least unjust sources of revenue possible (those climbing the ladder of consent, as close to expressed consent as possible).

Governance Competition Benefits Everyone

One major point emphasized in this essay is that continuing to patronize bad governance, or to pay high taxes in exchange for poor quality public services, is to incentivize more of the same bad governance. Similarly, moving one’s physical self and family, incorporating one’s business, and relocating one’s assets to jurisdictions where the persons, businesses, and assets involved are more welcome, is to reward better governance. It isn’t only the individual (or his family) who benefits from spatial mobility, but also others who must live under the same government. Entrepreneurial and highly skilled individuals who remained behind the Iron Curtain of the Soviet Union by choice — when they were permitted to leave — undoubtedly improved the lives of locals in the short term, but by not leaving, they also helped sustain a broken system that continued to oppress those same locals for longer.

Flag Theory practitioners come in many shapes and sizes. Many have their life’s savings, business income, or a pension and are willing to invest in a country’s Citizenship by Investment (CBI) or Residence by Investment (RBI) program. Many of these programs take the form of a direct payment to the government of that country. Others involve purchasing government bonds or parking money with one of that country’s commercial banks. In still other cases, the requirement is a real estate purchase or simply proof of foreign-sourced minimal monthly income sufficient to sustain the person without relying on local taxpayers.

In most of the above cases, the government is essentially selling the foreign foot-voter the right to live, work, invest, or open a business. As such, governments are encouraging economic activity (attracting capital from abroad) while also often increasing revenue that can be used for infrastructure, pensions, national defense, and the like. This can create great positive benefits for the country, providing tax relief for the local population — subsidized by foreigners who hope to make a better life for themselves.

On July 1, 2026, 46 states rang in Fiscal Year 2027. New York started FY 2027 April 1, Texas will start FY 2027 on September 1, and Alabama and Michigan will start FY 2027 on October 1. Whatever the calendar, many state leaders enter the year with less room for error than they enjoyed during the federal transfer surge six years ago.

As states face sluggish population growth, policymakers must be ready to face a new fiscal landscape. The states best positioned for that landscape will be those that protect economic freedom by keeping taxes, spending, regulation, and long-term obligations under control. States that answer slow growth with government expansion will enter the next downturn with fewer options.

Population trends are increasing pressure. From 2024 to 2025, population growth rates slowed in 48 states as international migration declined. Only Montana and West Virginia were able to attract Americans from other states at a rate that outpaced the decline in domestic migration.

More concerning is the nationwide slowdown in long-term growth rates across the states. Consistent, long-term decline threatens tax bases, labor markets, and budgets. At the same time, Americans continued moving across state lines. South Carolina led the nation in recent growth, while California lost residents.

These movements matter because people carry income, consumption, and entrepreneurial energy with them. A state that loses residents and businesses loses workers, consumers, entrepreneurs, and, ultimately, taxpayers. Government spending pressures, however, do not automatically fall at the same pace as a shrinking tax base. Much of state spending is “locked in” to promises made years ago: debt service on bonds, pensions and benefits to public employees, Medicaid, infrastructure, and public payrolls.

This competition is real. Households compare cost of living, including taxes, along with job prospects. Employers compare labor markets and the cost of doing business, including taxes and regulations. A state that makes work, investment, and construction easier has a better base than one that punishes growth.

Over the past several years, states have masked many of these spending problems with extraordinary surges in federal transfers. Figure 1 shows the latest spending data from the states by revenue sources.

Figure 1: State Expenditures by Source (50 State Average).
National Association of State Budget Officers data, modified by the author.
Note: State expenditures are capital inclusive.

In FY 2021, with federal stimulus packages from the pandemic steadily flowing, federal funds accounted for 40.8 percent of total state expenditures. That share steadily receded, but dependence has not disappeared. Across all states, federal funds for FY 2025 totaled $1.077 trillion, or 33.5 percent of total state expenditures. On an average-state basis, federal funds accounted for 34.1 percent of spending, only slightly below general funds at 35.1 percent.

This gives Washington substantial influence over state budgets due to the strings attached to federal funds. Federal transfers arrive with rules, preset priorities, and maintenance-of-effort expectations. Federal transfers allow Washington to influence state and local policy beyond direct legislation. They soften state budget constraints, distort spending priorities, and weaken accountability. States can expand programs without bearing the full political cost because federal taxpayers outside of the state help finance them. Voters then struggle to see who is responsible for spending growth, federal mandates, or future shortfalls.

That exposure is dangerous in a period of slow population growth and fiscal stress. As Washington adjusts transfer programs, states will face hard choices: raising taxes, cutting spending, borrowing, or some combination of the three. States that built ongoing commitments on temporary aid will be most exposed. The adjustment will be hardest where federal dollars supported recurring commitments.

Federal dependence, however, impacts all fifty states. Figure 2 shows federal funds as a percentage of total state spending for FY 2025.

Figure 2: Federal Funds as a Percentage of Total State Expenditures
National Association of State Budget Officers data, modified by the author.
Note: State expenditures are capital inclusive.

As Figure 2 shows, federal dependence cuts across the partisan divide. The two states with the largest dependence on federal transfers, Indiana (46.4 percent) and Louisiana (48.6 percent), are red states. Indiana has experienced 18 years of Republican trifectas between 1992 and 2026 while Louisiana has experienced eight Democrat trifecta years and eight Republican trifecta years during the same period.

Federal exposure is shaped by numerous factors. A high federal share may mean different things in different states. In a leaner state budget, such as Indiana, federal funds can occupy a larger share because own-source spending is lower. In a high-spending state, such as New York, federal funds may instead help sustain a broader set of programs. Regardless, changes to federal transfers will require painful decisions from state leaders.

Additionally, the type of government may affect how state leaders respond to federal cuts. Since 1992, divided government has declined and trifecta governments (single-party control of the executive and legislative branches) have become more common. As of January 2026, 39 states have trifecta governments (23 Republican, 16 Democratic) while only 11 have divided governments. The duration of continuous, unified government matters more than party label alone.

The longer a single party remains in power, the more opportunity it has to build durable commitments, reward allies, and entrench interest group coalitions. That does not mean every durable trifecta will spend recklessly. It means voters should ask whether unified government has been used to restrain commitments or to hard-wire them into future budgets. States with large long-term obligations will have less flexibility when revenues slow, federal transfers change, or the next downturn arrives.

As FY 2027 kicks off for most states, state leaders must be mindful of the changing demographic and budgetary landscape. The best protection is a return to government that focuses solely on, in the words of Adam Smith, “Peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice.”

The Supreme Court denied the President’s stay application in Trump v. Cook on June 29, allowing Governor Lisa Cook to keep her seat. This was a 5–4 decision on an emergency-docket stay, not a final ruling on the merits, and it resolved far less than the headlines suggest.

What The Ruling Settled, and What It Did Not

The Court held that the President’s removal of Cook failed on narrow procedural grounds. He gave her no notice and no chance to respond before firing her. Nothing stops him from trying again. If he does, the underlying question of whether alleged pre-office mortgage fraud constitutes “cause” to remove a sitting Fed governor remains completely open, because the Court declined to spell out precisely what “cause” requires, leaving that question to be litigated the next time a president wants a governor gone.

The coalition that produced even this narrow holding is also not built to last. Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Kavanaugh joined the three liberal justices to form the majority. 

The three dissents don’t agree with each other any more than they agree with the majority: Justice Thomas would eliminate for-cause protection for the Fed as unconstitutional; Justice Barrett objected mainly to the Court reaching a constitutional question the government never raised; Justice Alito (joined by Gorsuch) objected to deciding this much on an emergency-docket record the lower courts barely developed. 

A 5–4 majority that fragile, on a question this narrow, is not the kind of precedent that survives a change in the Court’s composition unscathed.

Independent of What, Exactly?

The majority’s defense of Fed independence leans on the Fed being “a uniquely structured, quasi-private entity” with a “distinct historical tradition,” language that treats independence as a kind of institutional mystique. Justice Thomas takes the opposite extreme view: the Fed wields executive power, so it should answer to the President like any other agency.

Yet the Federal Reserve was never independent of the government in any general sense. Congress created the Board; Congress alone can rewrite the statute that defines its powers. And the Fed chair testifies to Congress, not to the President, as a matter of statutory design. The President’s role was always a narrow one: nominate governors and remove them only for cause. In other words, execute Congress’s will. “For cause” protection is intended to insulate monetary policy decisions from a specific pressure: the incentive an elected official has to lean on monetary policy for short-term gain ahead of an election. That is a narrower and more defensible claim than either “the Fed is special” or “no agency should ever be insulated from anything.”

The Case for Insulating That One Thing

The dilemma is structural, not personal. You can have a skilled central banker serving under a president inclined to misuse monetary policy, or a poor central banker serving under a president who would never try to misuse it. The Constitution vests executive power in one person, by design, a single point of accountability, but also a single point of failure. 

Monetary policy, by contrast, is set by a committee whose members, in theory, have smaller, less coordinated, and mutually offsetting incentives to politicize decisions than a single elected official seeking reelection. Insulating that committee’s decisions from removal-by-displeasure doesn’t guarantee good policy. But it bounds how much damage one bad political actor can do to it. That is a more modest claim than the one usually made for central bank independence.

This ideal deserves a real-world caveat. A committee that votes together as often as the FOMC does is not perfectly diversified against shared error. The near-unanimous “transitory inflation” call of 2021–22 is a reminder that groupthink can exist in a body such as the FOMC as well. Insulation reduces correlated political risk. It does not eliminate correlated forecasting risk.

 What Does This Mean for Monetary Policy?

The ambiguity Trump v. Cook leaves unresolved exacts a direct cost on the very thing insulation was built to protect: the credibility of monetary policy itself. 

Modern central banking depends heavily on expectations (through forward guidance or otherwise): the Fed signals its future policy intentions to shape market expectations today. That only works if markets trust that the Fed’s signals reflect economic analysis rather than political accommodation. A Fed whose governors know they can be removed under a standard no court has defined, for reasons no statute limits, is a Fed whose forward guidance is conditional to presidential approval. The interest-rate path the Fed projects carries weight only if markets believe the governors on the Fed Board who help set it won’t be replaced the moment that path displeases the White House. Trump v. Cook does nothing to remove that asterisk. And the split vote is not very reassuring.

The Underlying Problem

Why did a case about an old mortgage application make its way to the Supreme Court? 

The Federal Reserve Board, which Congress insulated in 1913, set short-term interest rates, supervised member banks, and designed and executed monetary policy. That’s it. The Board that Cook serves on does much more. 

The Dodd-Frank Act, passed in 2010, gave the Fed consolidated supervisory authority over nonbank financial firms designated “systemically important” by the Financial Stability Oversight Council, and imposed enhanced prudential standards on every bank holding company above a statutory asset threshold. The same Board sets emergency lending policy under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act — an authority that let the Fed extend credit peaking at $710 billion in 2008 to keep firms like AIG and Bear Stearns from collapsing, and that backed a 2020 lending capacity exceeding $2.6 trillion during the pandemic, with Congress appropriating $454 billion to backstop it. In 2023, under its general safety-and-soundness authority rather than any specific congressional mandate, the Board ran a pilot climate scenario analysis (CSA) with six of the country’s largest banks; an example of how far that authority can stretch.

None of this is illegitimate; Congress authorized nearly all of it by statute. But Congress added each grant of power without revisiting whether the original case for insulating monetary policy has anything to do with insulating bank examinations, emergency lending, or systemic-risk designations, let alone climate change policies. 

The Court’s own discomfort with this gap is already on the page. 

A footnote in the majority opinion declines to bless Fed powers “attenuated from monetary policy.” As Alexander Salter has observed elsewhere in this publication, that footnote reads as a quiet acknowledgment that the Fed’s broader supervisory and enforcement machinery doesn’t sit easily with the Court’s own reasoning. Justice Barrett presses the same concern in dissent, asking whether all of the Fed’s current powers actually relate to monetary policy, and whether those that don’t are simply grandfathered in. Even within the majority, the tension surfaces: Justice Kavanaugh argued the Court had to settle the Fed’s categorical status immediately because leaving it open after Trump v. Slaughter would itself be too costly, and yet the same opinion left the definition of cause, the question every future removal fight will turn on, to be resolved case by case, indefinitely.

Cook’s case was never just about whether one governor said something untrue on a mortgage application. It was about who controls a Board that can move trillions of dollars and rewrite supervisory standards for the banking system, a far larger prize than the one the original insulation was built to protect, sitting behind the same undefined “for cause” standard. 

A governor’s protection from removal cannot apply to some of her votes and not others. There is an uncomfortable trade-off: either every part of the modern Board stays insulated together, and an unelected body runs a large slice of executive power outside the executive branch, or insulation comes off entirely and governors who need their monetary policy decisions to be independent from electoral pressure become removable at presidential pleasure. That choice only looks forced because it treats the Board’s expanded mandate as one indivisible office. It isn’t.

Only Congress Can Close Both Gaps

Justice Kavanaugh’s concurrence ends with the right answer to half the problem: any further change to Fed independence “must occur through the legislative process.” He’s right that courts can’t durably settle whether the Fed gets to be independent.

The dilemma dissolves once you stop treating the Board as a single office. Keep “for cause” protection exactly where the original rationale justifies it: the governors who vote on interest rates and the money supply. Move everything else — bank supervision, systemic-risk designation, emergency lending — to a separate body whose officers answer to the President under the standard Slaughter, decided the same day, already set for ordinary executive functions (for better or worse). 

The Fed’s removal fight is still contested only because it does both kinds of work under a single, undefined standard. Separating them ends that.

Congress should therefore do two things. First, define “for cause” by statute for the seat that remains insulated, with notice and a hearing required before removal. Second, move the Fed’s non-monetary powers to a body that operates under the standard Slaughter already established, rather than letting the Fed borrow protection it was never designed to need. Protect the part of the job insulation was built for. Stop pretending the rest of the job needs the same shield.

At a Palo Alto, California, record store in September 1975, the latest issue of Rolling Stone caught the eye of local high school student Charles L. Ponce de Leon. Rock band the Eagles gazed out from the cover in youthful, long-haired glory. Inside was a story by Cameron Crowe, himself only 18 at the time.

De Leon bought the issue, sparking a lasting fascination with Rolling Stone that eventually culminated in his recent book about the magazine’s first two decades. According to de Leon, a cultural historian, writing Rolling Stone and the Rise of Hip Capitalism was “an opportunity to go back in time and think about my own intellectual development.”

It was also an opportunity to assess the magazine’s influence on American culture in the decades following the sexual revolution. “Hip capitalism” was originally coined as a slur for people profiting from the counterculture. In de Leon’s telling, however, it describes how businesses such as Rolling Stone, health food stores, head shops, and others carried 1960s values into mainstream America.

For my money, his argument does not go far enough. Rolling Stone is a perfect example of how entrepreneurs enrich themselves by enriching the lives of consumers. Unfortunately, the magazine’s left-leaning editorial stance rarely acknowledged that reality.

More than personalities or anecdotes, de Leon’s story focuses on the magazine’s content. There is more detail on individual writers, articles, and editorial coverage than some readers will want. Still, he makes a compelling case for how, to quote the book’s subtitle, “a magazine born in the 1960s changed America.”

The story begins on October 17, 1967, when the first issue of Rolling Stone went to press. Its founder, Jann Wenner, was a 21-year-old University of California, Berkeley, dropout. Like many of his peers, he was into marijuana and music. But he was also passionate about journalism. With help from his mentor, Ralph J. Gleason, who had hired him as a reporter for the San Francisco publication Sunday Ramparts, Wenner decided to try his hand at entrepreneurship. Inspired by Billboard, the British weekly Melody Maker, and low-budget fanzines such as Crawdaddy!, Wenner saw an opening for a new publication.

“It would be more discriminating than Billboard,” de Leon writes, “more substantive than the teen magazines or mainstream newspapers, and more lively than Crawdaddy!

Wenner wanted to use journalism to legitimize the counterculture and its music. But like any entrepreneur, he first had to marshal economic resources. He raised $7,500 through a letter-writing campaign, created a mock-up, and began selling advertising.

The Entrepreneur Who Sold the Counterculture

Building Rolling Stone from the ground up, Wenner was an entrepreneur in the fullest Austrian sense. He identified a niche where his own passions intersected with unmet consumer demand. For all the disdain many young people in the 1960s expressed toward “square” America, the nation’s prosperity had given them more purchasing power than previous generations. They exercised that consumer sovereignty by buying everything from transistor radios to Beatles hair spray.

Soon they were buying Rolling Stone. By 1970, paid circulation had climbed to nearly 200,000. The magazine combined growing professionalism with fierce editorial independence. Its reviewers were unafraid to criticize work they disliked, even by revered artists such as Bob Dylan and Led Zeppelin. The coverage felt authentic, and readers responded.

Writers such as Hunter S. Thompson and Tom Wolfe soon joined the masthead. They were pioneers of “New Journalism,” which broke with the detached, objective style that had long dominated the profession. Thompson’s now-classic Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas first appeared in Rolling Stone in 1971. Wolfe’s 1972 article on the final Apollo lunar mission became the foundation for his later book—and the eventual film—The Right Stuff.

With work like this, Wenner expanded Rolling Stone beyond music into culture, politics, and crime through long-form coverage such as its reporting on the Manson murders. Circulation reached 466,000 by 1976. The following year, Wenner relocated the magazine’s headquarters from San Francisco to New York City, still the journalistic capital of the nation.

The 1980s brought cultural change and a new president, Ronald Reagan. Rolling Stone continued to evolve. A redesign transformed it into a traditional glossy magazine. Coverage expanded to include personal computers and even video games. Music coverage was briefly deemphasized before readers made their dissatisfaction known. Entrepreneurship is a continual negotiation between entrepreneurs and consumers, and consumers always hold the stronger hand. A business must continually earn their loyalty or be displaced by one that will.

One thing that did not change was Rolling Stone‘s politics. From the beginning, both the magazine and Wenner leaned reliably left. Even so, Wenner made one notable concession to the more conservative climate of the 1980s by hiring libertarian humorist P. J. O’Rourke as a writer and editor. A former dope-smoking longhair turned necktie-wearing Reaganite, O’Rourke was, in many ways, the Republican answer to Hunter S. Thompson. He quickly became one of the magazine’s most popular voices.

O’Rourke and Wenner also became friends. In the acknowledgments to All the Trouble in the World, O’Rourke thanked Wenner for allowing him “the latitude to rave and vociferate, although he disagrees with almost all my opinions.” He then vowed to make a Republican of Wenner yet.

That never happened. But their friendship speaks well of Wenner’s openness to dissenting viewpoints. Perhaps he even recognized that his own career embodied many of the entrepreneurial principles O’Rourke admired. Either way, theirs was the kind of friendship — like that of Antonin Scalia and Ruth Bader Ginsburg — that feels increasingly rare today. 

Capitalism, Culture, and Consequence

De Leon’s story of Rolling Stone ends with the publication’s twentieth anniversary in 1987. By that point, issues often ran over 100 pages, and paid circulation had surpassed 1.1 million.

The magazine’s story, of course, continued into the twenty-first century. But it became one of decline, and not only because of the usual challenges facing legacy print media. In 2014, more concerned with aligning itself with the cultural establishment than with getting the story right, the publication botched a now-discredited report of gang rape involving members of a University of Virginia fraternity. With that, Rolling Stone became “what it once claimed to abhor,” according to writer Mark Judge.

De Leon does not cover this episode. But in the epilogue, he does go somewhat starry-eyed for the sexual revolution values Rolling Stone helped mainstream. He connects capitalism to the ongoing victory of those values, a process he sees continuing until conservatives are left with “little recourse but to impose their increasingly unpopular social agenda through antimajoritarian and even authoritarian means.”

Some would argue that the political left is itself quite adept at such means. But de Leon gets this much correct: capitalism, rightly understood, can transcend politics. The progressive ownership of Ben & Jerry’s ice cream has as much right to earn a profit by appealing to consumers as the conservative ownership of Hobby Lobby does.

Rolling Stone is an example of the grassroots power of capitalism. It could not have emerged in an economy without individual initiative, private property, and free markets. And it made Wenner — who sold his remaining ownership stake in 2020 — considerably wealthy, powerful, and professionally successful.

Now 80, Wenner’s life has included plenty of faults. But in the end, the value he brought to the American economic table was both journalistic and entrepreneurial. And, as with free markets themselves, millions benefited from it.

Watching the branded Freedom250 celebrations in DC, I was reminded of the quote attributed to C.S. Lewis: “When I sat with my anger long enough, she revealed her real name was grief.”

Initially, I was angry to see this solemn remembrance of the greatest-ever attempt to operationalize Enlightenment values taken over by a pay-per-view spectacle, with its conspicuous advertisements for beer and energy drinks. I was troubled by taxpayer-backed Rededicate250 prayer rallies that claimed American citizenship should require Christian identity. And I’m deeply worried about a domestic military apparatus increasingly treating civil liberties and due process as inconveniences rather than first principles. The celebration isn’t just tacky — it’s hollow. We seem to have forgotten what, exactly, the United States is supposed to be about. 

Beyond my own misgivings, this summer is such a loss for my daughter. Her nuanced picture of the United States is not a people or a plot of land but a set of ideas, consecrated in a civil creed: that all men are created equal, and are endowed with inalienable rights; that unchecked power is a threat to liberty and just powers are constitutionally constrained; that governments derive their power from the consent of the governed, and govern best when they govern least. She is a little classical liberal, and largely shielded from the grim realities of our current political dysfunction.

An American Inheritance

Last July, on a family road trip, we prepared for this momentous anniversary together. A quarter millennium of human progress is hard to appreciate when your own age is in the single digits. We began in Jefferson’s study at Monticello, where he wrote the words that would transform the political vocabulary of the world. We talked about Jupiter Evans, the enslaved man who almost certainly was in Jefferson’s earshot at that moment and who, thanks to later edits made to Jefferson’s drafts, would not be included in “all men” for another ninety years. We walked the waterfront of Alexandria and stood in the assembly room of Independence Hall in Philadelphia, in the stifling heat, just as the founders did while haggling over the future of political relations. We bowed our heads at battlefields and war memorials, and we read those words — “all men are created equal” — as they now appear beneath the dome of the Jefferson Memorial in Washington. 

I want her to believe in America, the idea. Not the empire, with its overseas meddling and wars of choice. Not the extraction machine, with its scalpel blade slicing off a share of every dollar she’ll ever earn, spend, invest, or save. Not the incarcerator, with its web of police and administrative lawyers, feeding citizens into prisons after failing them in the schoolhouse. But the American ideal. The one we celebrate. 

And the project was always unfinished, imperfect. The Founders recognized that future generations would face new challenges and provided a path to amend the nation’s governing charter. Some of those amendments have strengthened, and some weakened, the principles the Constitution embodies, but each was adopted through channels built into the original. The system of laws and separated powers gave Americans a procedure to update the Constitution as practical need (Twelfth and Twentieth Amendments) and moral imperative (Thirteenth and Nineteenth) required. 

The constitutional order, despite its noble intentions, began to break down almost immediately. Humans are capable of aspiring to significantly higher standards than we are generally capable of meeting, compounding our shortcomings with hypocrisy. George Washington used the military to put down a violent tax rebellion, whose motivating claims uncomfortably echoed those that galvanized the Sons of Liberty a generation before. John Adams betrayed free speech by backing the Sedition Act, making it a federal crime to publish “false, scandalous, and malicious” speech against the government. Thomas Jefferson defeated Adams in the next election and pardoned those convicted, but then made the Louisiana Purchase, while privately acknowledging he lacked the authority. “An amendment of the Constitution seems necessary for this,” he wrote, but found it more expedient to use executive treaty power. And these champions of individual liberty, as is often noted, saw no pressing need to extend the same natural rights to the women, enslaved people, and indigenous individuals all around them. While many constitutional framers acknowledged that contradiction in private, few confronted it politically. They left that work to future generations.

The Long Work of Liberty

And future generations arrived to take up the American challenge. Frederick Douglass saw the Constitution as an anti-slavery doctrine and demanded inclusion in its liberties, asking, “What to a Slave is the Fourth of July?” After fully two percent of the US population died in a Civil War to decide the point, Thaddeus Stevens embraced the amendment process to help abolish slavery. Rabbi Isaac Mayer Wise and “The Great Agnostic” Robert Ingersoll each appealed to the Constitution to insist on the rights of Catholics, Jews, Jehovah’s Witnesses, Mormons, nonbelievers, and other religious minorities as full participants in the American project. Suffragists Alice Paul and Ernestine Hara Kettler lit fires outside the White House gate and went on hunger strike, enduring imprisonment and force-feedings to claim the promise of equal citizenship and representation for women. Martin Luther King Jr. famously described the Declaration and Constitution as a “promissory note” that had yet to be redeemed. Like suffragists before him, King wrote poignantly from behind bars, imploring the very nation that imprisoned him to fully embrace her own ideals: life, liberty, and equality before the law. These great American revolutionaries didn’t fight against her, but for her. They were constitutional radicals who insisted protections and promises apply to “all of us,” even as that understanding evolved.

The American miracle might be that its greatest reform movements demanded not the rejection of the nation’s founding ideals, but their fuller realization. The exceptionality of the American experiment was recognized, and often craved, by those who wanted to be a part of it. 

“I love America more than any other country in the world,” wrote James Baldwin, “and exactly for this reason, I insist on the right to criticize her perpetually.” The idea of America is difficult. It requires struggle. Great victories in protecting and expanding the ideals of America have required great personal sacrifice. Citizens seeking to hold governments accountable to their stated purpose are often attacked by the very architecture that purports to protect them. 

Safeguarding the legacy of liberty we have inherited from the framers and later liberators feels foreign to a generation that grew up enjoying its fruits without effort. But we cannot rest. The threats to the people are perpetual: power consolidates, it tears down its constraints, it seeks to extract resources from the docile and imprison the dissident. Even now, tyranny is executed in the name of “liberty.” Privacy and dignity are gutted for “security.” Free people are subjugated and their wills and consciences violated constantly. 

More recent occupants of the White House may have more in common with Mad King George III than with the statesmen who crafted our constitutional order. But the American legacy isn’t perfection — it is self-correction. 

Responsibility and Redemption

So that has become my lesson to my daughter in the coming days and years. The United States is remarkable not because it has emerged victorious, but because it has continually struggled to live up to its ideals.

The American story is not simply the story of enduring principles, but of generations struggling to live up to them. Our greatest figures did not expand liberty by abandoning the nation’s founding, but by demanding that we fully honor its promise. Our American identity is forged not just of Washington and Jefferson, but of Frederick Douglass, Robert Ingersoll, Alice Paul, and whomever comes next.

And that, I realized, is what I want her to inherit. The real work of the American anniversary is commitment: to refuse to surrender liberty for expediency, to insist on the Constitution’s protections, and to shape institutions that pass that inheritance intact, for the next generation to improve. The nation isn’t perfect. We haven’t always — or ever — fully lived up to the true meaning of our creed. 

That commitment warrants neither hagiography nor cynicism. Every generation inherits an unfinished republic. By recognizing our responsibility to live up to the founding, we can rededicate ourselves to the principles that actually underpin the nation. Each of us has the chance — and the responsibility — to move us a little closer to the promise that all are created equal, that liberty belongs to everyone, and that government is the servant, not the master, of a free people.

Speaking in January at Davos, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that President Trump’s protectionism revives the policy first proposed by Alexander Hamilton. Like countless attempts to justify US protectionism and industrial policy, Greer’s effort praises Hamilton’s Report on Manufactures (“Report“). 

More recently, Scott Bessent, now holder of a job first held by Hamilton — US Treasury Secretary — also boasted of the administration’s Hamiltonian creed. Given the fame of Hamilton’s Report, and Hamilton’s key role in America’s founding, a close look at his Report is warranted.

Impetus for the Report

Requested by the US House of Representatives in January 1790, Hamilton submitted his Report on December 5, 1791. It was the longest and most famous of four major reports submitted to the House by Secretary Hamilton.

According to Hamilton, the House requested that he devote attention to “the subject of Manufactures; and particularly to the means of promoting such as will tend to render the United States, independent on foreign nations, for military and other essential supplies.” He complied.

America’s Economy Should Have a Strong Manufacturing Sector

The Report opened by making the case that America would benefit from a larger manufacturing sector despite America being unusually rich in land. Without naming Thomas Jefferson, the Report‘s opening was a challenge to Jefferson’s conviction that America should remain a nation mostly of yeomen farmers.

Offering this challenge, Hamilton relied on Adam Smith (also without naming him) to expose the errors of physiocracy — that is, the belief that net economic value is produced only by agriculture. Yet Hamilton went further, arguing that manufacturing can be more productive than agriculture. In making this argument, Hamilton was impressive; one might even sense in it an anticipation of some insights revealed by economists’ marginal revolution of 80 years later.

Regardless of how much or little Hamilton intuited of marginalism, he deserves credit for emphasizing the reality and significance of opportunity costs. To produce some increment of agricultural output requires that some increment of manufacturing output not be produced. And that increment of agricultural output is worthwhile to produce only if its value exceeds that of the foregone manufacturing output. Thus did Hamilton defuse the arguments of persons who believed that, to establish the case for keeping America an agricultural nation, it’s sufficient to point to the positive market value of agricultural output.

In this way, and some others, Hamilton revealed a keen ability to think insightfully about economic matters. Nevertheless, on a full assessment, Hamilton in the Report got more wrong about economics than he got right. Not content to support only the removal of artificial barriers in the US against domestic manufacturing, Hamilton argued strenuously that the government must actively promote American manufacturing. That promotion should consist chiefly of subsidies (“bounties”) supplemented by protective tariffs.

Hamilton Respected But Rejected Adam Smith

The renown of Smith’s Wealth of Nations obliged Hamilton to try to refute Smith’s argument that, in Hamilton’s summary, “industry, if left to itself … without the aid of government will grow up as soon and as fast, as the natural state of things and the interest of the community may require.” For Hamilton, what Smith called “the obvious and simple system of natural liberty” was too simple, at least for a young country without much industry. Here’s Hamilton:

Against the solidity of [Smith’s] hypothesis … cogent reasons may be offered. These have relation to — the strong influence of habit and the spirit of imitation — the fear of want of success in untried enterprises — the intrinsic difficulties incident to first essays towards a competition with those who have previously attained to perfection in the business to be attempted — the bounties premiums and other artificial encouragements, with which foreign nations second the exertions of their own Citizens in the branches, in which they are to be rivalled.

The first-mentioned impediment to American manufacturing was Americans’ alleged lack of entrepreneurship. Habit-bound and excessively risk-averse, too many Americans would stick with familiar agricultural pursuits and refrain from launching new manufacturing endeavors. Further discouraging Americans from venturing into manufacturing were the established competitors abroad who would out-compete upstart rivals. 

For Hamilton, simply being long-established was, in free markets, a nearly insurmountable competitive advantage. But in addition, foreign manufacturers might also practice what we today call “predatory pricing,” as well as enjoy their own subsidies. Therefore, Hamilton believed that manufacturing would arise and thrive in America only if the rates of return on these enterprises were boosted by the government.

Hamilton here forgot his own counsel to attend to opportunity costs. He simply presumed that whatever additional manufacturing activities were encouraged by the government would increase the net value of US economic output. He also ignored both the knowledge problem (How do politicians know which particular industries to encourage?) and the public-choice problem (With subsidies and protection being doled out by politicians, what prevents this doling from being distorted by interest-group politics?).

Hamilton also had a cramped understanding of economic competition. (In fairness, this understanding still infects economics textbooks today.) For him, competition consisted of firms producing a largely given set of outputs with largely identical technologies. Although he can’t be faulted for not reading Joseph Schumpeter’s 1942 work on creative destruction, even in 1791 evidence was growing that the major source of economic growth was entrepreneur-driven creative destruction. Such innovation introduced not only new products, but also completely new and improved means of producing existing products. 

In such an innovative economy, being long-established wasn’t the great advantage that Hamilton assumed it to be. Just ask, for example, the American millers whose traditional manner of milling flour was rendered obsolete starting in the 1780s in Delaware by Oliver Evans‘s automated flour mill.

Hamilton’s Curious Evidence

Attempting to augment his case for active government encouragement of manufacturing, Hamilton offered curious evidence. Responding to opponents who insisted that America’s economy was unfit for manufacturing, he boasted that America’s economy was already demonstrating an impressive ability to support manufacturing.

Writing about the prospects of profitable investment in manufacturing, Hamilton said that “it is certain that the United States offer a vast field for the advantageous employment of capital; but it does not follow, that there will not be found, in one way or another, a sufficient fund for the successful prosecution of any species of industry which is likely to prove truly beneficial.” He continued: In addition to America’s “multiplying” banks, another ready source of funding for manufacturing was foreign capital, which he wisely welcomed as “a precious acquisition.” Indeed, “the attraction of foreign Capital for the direct purpose of Manufactures ought not to be deemed a chimerical expectation. There are already examples of it.”

Question for Hamilton: If it was certain that the US offered vast opportunities for profitable investments in manufacturing, and if such investment was already occurring, why did such investment need to be further stimulated by the government? Hamilton’s inconsistency is evident.

Another example of Hamilton’s inconsistency is worth mentioning. When he argued for subsidies and protective tariffs for goods produced with iron, his evidence for the worth of such government assistance was the fact that such manufacturing had significantly grown in the US since the American Revolution and was flourishing. His argument was that this industry deserved protection precisely because it had proven itself capable and successful. Presumably, Hamilton would defend this inconsistency by maintaining that, without government assistance, this industrial growth — and that of other critical manufacturers — would stop short of its optimal point.

Here’s where Hamilton-as-economist faltered most seriously. He made the incorrect presumption that markets fail to generate optimal economic growth because, in the end, he didn’t appreciate just how effectively resources are allocated by market signals and incentives — by competitively determined prices, profits, and losses. 

At least for fledgling nations with relatively little industrial capacity, he believed that intervention from the top was required.

The Lasting Lesson

Studying the Report on Manufactures makes clear that Hamilton, contrary to the assertions of Greer and Bessent, was far from being a protectionist in the mold of Donald Trump. 

Not only was Hamilton’s case for protection confined to the need to stimulate industrial capacity in a country lacking such capacity, he also preferred subsidies over tariffs (because tariffs, unlike subsidies, reduce supplies of targeted goods), and he welcomed, rather than bemoaned, net inflows of foreign capital. 

Nevertheless, Hamilton ultimately had too little confidence in free markets. The late Gordon Wood’s assessment of Hamilton-as-economist is accurate:

Hamilton was so wedded to a hierarchical view of society that he could only imagine industrial investment and development coming from the top down. Thus he was incapable of foreseeing that the actual source of America’s manufacturing would come from below, from the ambitions, productivity, and investments of thousands upon thousands of middling artisans and craftsmen who eventually became America’s businessmen. Hamilton’s historical reputation as the prophet of America’s industrial greatness therefore seems somewhat exaggerated. He certainly wanted a powerful and glorious nation, but he was no more capable of accurately foretelling the future than the other American leaders.