Key trends for zinc in 2025

As mentioned, zinc saw a major price decline at the start of April, falling 14 percent as the base metals sector responded to US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement.

At the time, analysts predicted that the proposed reciprocal tariffs could trigger a recession, impacting consumer spending on new homes and cars, both of which have significant inputs of galvanized steel.

While the threat of a significant global recession eased as the proposed tariffs were dialed back, considerable uncertainty among both investors and consumers remained. This was evident in the US housing market, where affordability challenges persist, leading to stagnation in new housing starts and a glut of unsold homes.

Likewise, a stalled Chinese housing market persisted throughout 2025. The country’s real estate market collapsed in 2020 as Evergrande and Country Garden filed for bankruptcy. Over the past five years, the government has implemented several measures to stimulate the beleaguered sector, but they have had little effect.

According to CNBC, November sales from China’s top 100 developers declined 36 percent over 2024, and were down 19 percent through the first 11 months of 2025 — a ‘real and concerning’ worsening.

Against that backdrop, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) is predicting a 2025 zinc market surplus of 85,000 MT in 2025. It notes that during the first 10 months of the year, zinc mine production rose to 10.51 million MT, up from 9.87 million MT in 2024. Refined zinc production was also up, rising slightly to 11.52 million MT from 11.12 million MT in the same period last year. Zinc demand reached 11.44 million MT, up from 11.19 million MT in 2024.

Despite the oversupply situation, London Metal Exchange (LME) stockpiles fell from 230,325 MT on January 2 to just 33,825 MT on November 1. The gap has since widened again, reaching 52,025 MT on November 28.

Zinc surplus expected in 2026

Oversupply is likely to persist as newly mined metals enter the market, while demand growth remains modest.

The ILZSG is predicting that global refined zinc demand will increase by 1 percent to 13.86 million MT in 2026.

The group notes that while it anticipates sees Chinese demand posting a 1.3 percent gain in 2025, it believes usage from the country will be flat in 2026 as the slump in the Chinese real estate sector persists into 2027.

Additional challenges are arising from a slowdown in the US housing market, as new buyers face high home prices and elevated mortgage rates. However, policy proposals from the Trump administration on December 17 could give the sector a much-needed boost and potentially increase downstream demand for zinc.

Likewise, European zinc demand is likely to grow next year following predicted 0.7 percent growth in 2025.

However, the ILZSG is predicting a more significant upward trend in zinc mine supply in 2026 — the organization is anticipating that output will increase by 2.4 percent to 12.8 million MT. This will come on the back of higher output from existing operations in Europe, Australia, Brazil, the Democratic Republic of Congo and China.

Additional zinc supply will come from a recent restart at the Almina-Minas Aljustrel mine in Portugal, commissioning of Bunker Hill Mining’s (CSE:BNKR,OTCQB:BHLL) namesake mine in Idaho, and the start of commercial production at the Xinjiang Huoshaoyun mine in China, which will be the sixth largest lead-zinc mine in the world.

Refined zinc output is also expected to increase by 2.4 percent in 2026, reaching 14.13 million MT from the anticipated 13.8 million MT in 2025. The higher levels are owed to the greater availability of concentrates in Brazil, Canada, Norway and China. Overall, the ILZSG predicts a global zinc supply surplus of 271,000 MT in 2026.

Zinc price forecast for 2026

In terms of the zinc price in 2026, a December report from Fastmarkets suggests that upward momentum from the 2025 LME average of US$3,218 is expected to continue through the first half of the year.

The firm points to regional disparities as Chinese production runs at a surplus, while the rest of the world falls short.

However, the expectation is that the zinc market will achieve a better balance in the second half of the year and into 2027 as global surpluses begin to emerge. Zinc prices are then seen declining as a result.

For its part, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) recently revised its zinc price outlook for 2026, calling for a yearly average of US$2,900 for the base metal, as per a mid-December Reuters article.

Additionally, according to a November Argus report, long-term zinc contracts have slowed amid low LME inventories, creating near-term uncertainty and driving prices higher.

Argus suggests that manufacturers have been slow to issue sales orders, which has caused uncertainty among producers, leaving them to take a wait-and-see approach to determine if low inventories persist.

It’s also important to note that zinc is listed as a critical mineral in the US for its use in the production of galvanized steel for infrastructure and defense projects. The US has already given South32’s (ASX:S32,OTC Pink:SHTLF) Hermosa project FAST-41 approval, giving it access to streamlined regulatory processes.

With building regional disparities and a tense relationship between the US and China, the world’s top zinc producer, a deteriorating trade status could be a boon for US and western producers of the metal.

However, as long as refined supply of zinc remains in surplus against a backdrop of weak demand growth, investors can expect more of the same from zinc markets in the near term. This may open up opportunities for patient or less risk-averse investors who are willing to take a wait-and-see approach to how the market evolves.

1. John Rubino — Silver

2. Peter Schiff — Silver, mining stocks

Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Asset Management and Schiff Gold mentioned silver too, although he also said he sees mining stocks overall doing well.

3. Craig Hemke — Silver-mining stocks

Similarly, Craig Hemke of TFMetalsReport.com is bullish on silver, but said his choice for top-performing asset of 2026 would be silver-mining stocks.

4. Byron King — Gold

5. Chris Temple — Uranium

6. Lobo Tiggre — Copper

7. Rick Rule — Oil/gas, small-scale community banks in the US

Unsurprisingly, Rick Rule of Rule Investment Media went outside the box.

8. Gareth Soloway — ‘Defensive names’ like Pfizer (NYSE:PFE)

Gareth Soloway of VerifiedInvesting.com also had an alternate take. Although he believes gold will perform well in 2026, he said it won’t necessarily be the top-performing asset.

9. Clem Chambers — Intel (NASDAQ:INTC)

Finally, Clem Chambers of aNewFN.com spoke about why he sees promise in Intel.

Bitcoin and Ether price update

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$89,036.29, up by 1.8 percent over 24 hours.

Bitcoin price performance, January 1, 2025.

Chart via TradingView

Ether (ETH) was priced at US$3,028.99, up by 2.3 percent over the last 24 hours.

Altcoin price update

• XRP (XRP) was priced at US$1.88, up by 2.5 percent over 24 hours.

• Solana (SOL) was trading at US$127.74, up by 2.8 percent over 24 hours.

Today’s crypto news to know

Bitcoin ETFs suffer worst two-month exodus on record

U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs closed 2025 with a combined US$4.57 billion in net outflows for November and December, marking their worst two-month stretch since launching in early 2024.

December alone saw US$1.09 billion pulled from the funds, following an even steeper $3.48 billion in November, according to SoSoValue data. The selloff also coincided with a roughly 20 percent drop in Bitcoin’s price.

Meanwhile, Ether ETFs were also swept up in the retreat, losing more than US$2 billion over the same period.

While the scale of redemptions appears severe, optimistic outlooks still persist. Some market participants say the flows reflect portfolio rebalancing rather than outright panic.

For instance, others note that weaker hands exited into year-end, while longer-term capital absorbed supply.

Turkmenistan moves to legalize crypto mining and exchanges

Turkmenistan has formally legalized cryptocurrency mining and exchanges after President Serdar Berdimuhamedov signed the Law on Virtual Assets into effect in late November.

The legislation establishes a legal framework for creating, trading, and holding digital assets as part of a broader push to stimulate economic growth and attract foreign investment.

Under the law, cryptocurrencies are classified as property rather than legal tender or securities and are divided into secured and unsecured assets, such as Bitcoin.

Further, mining is permitted for both individuals and companies, provided they register with the Central Bank of Turkmenistan and comply with technical standards.

The rules also explicitly ban illicit practices like cryptojacking and require licensed operations. Crypto exchanges and custodial services are also authorized, subject to central bank approval and strict KYC and anti-money-laundering requirements.

Tether expands Bitcoin, gold reserves with year-end purchase

Tether added 8,888 Bitcoin on New Year’s Eve, lifting its disclosed holdings to more than 96,000 BTC and placing the stablecoin issuer among the largest corporate holders globally.

CEO Paolo Ardoino said the purchase continues Tether’s policy of allocating up to 15 percent of quarterly earnings into Bitcoin, with the latest tranche valued at roughly US$780 million at the time of acquisition.

The accumulation makes Tether’s wallet the fifth-largest known Bitcoin address and the second-largest among private corporate treasuries.

Bitcoin remains only part of the firm’s reserve strategy, which also includes a sizable gold position. Tether bought 26 tons of gold in the third quarter, bringing its total holdings to 116 tons.

DeFi Technologies lawsuit breakdown

Plaintiffs claim that DeFi Technologies misled investors from May to November 2025 by issuing revenue guidance of US$218.6 million, despite arbitrage execution snags and rivals eroding its edge.

The company’s share price fell more than 7 percent on November 6 after it issued an update, then crashed over 27 percent between November 14 and 17. The second decline was triggered by the release of its Q3 results — the firm reported a 20 percent revenue miss, cut its 2025 guidance to US$116.6 million and shifted its CEO to an advisory role.

Unlike typical crypto suits over token sales or exchange collapses, this one targets a corporate treasury’s operational delays in DeFi yield strategies, exposing how arbitrage hiccups and DAT rivals demand precise disclosures.

“I think it’s an indicator that we’re going to see more questions and concerns surrounding the regulatory environment and disclosures, because we kind of hit into uncharted … territory very rapidly,” said Bishara.

The lawsuit arrives amid new fair-value accounting rules, testing board liability for strategy risks before 2026 filings.

Operational value vs. crypto laundering

An emerging concern for regulators and investors is the distinction between companies with genuine transactional components and those using public markets to create artificial liquidity.

Bishara noted that smaller companies divesting from core businesses to pivot toward crypto could become targets for regulatory scrutiny due to a perceived change in control.

From his perspective, firms primarily pursuing a treasury strategy could come under fire for potentially prioritizing short-term stock value and liquidation over the best interests of shareholders.

In these smaller transactions, Bishara suggested that the shift can be viewed as a way to convert illiquid digital assets into US dollars by selling stock in the open market.

“You’re converting something that I can’t really sell, and I can’t really buy a piece of pizza with … and turning it into something that I can buy a piece of pizza with,” the expert explained. “It’s almost like laundering crypto into currency,” he added, clarifying that this is not a one-size-fits-all accusation.

Consequently, he believes investors should look for companies whose underlying business models have operational potential, rather than those focused purely on digital asset transactions.

Board oversight and fiduciary duty

The rapid evolution of DeFi has fundamentally outpaced the regulatory frameworks designed to govern it.

For investors, the DeFi Technologies case underscores the danger of imprecise disclosures around crypto assets, particularly when firms pivot their strategies without clear communication to shareholders.

Bishara observed that as stock volatility triggers these types of lawsuits, corporate boards are being forced to rethink the practical applications of their fiduciary responsibility.

To fulfill their duty to shareholders, the expert argued that boards must engage in active, expert-led evaluation. Engaging independent third-party advisors, such as attorneys or investment bankers, to evaluate crypto treasury deals will insulate and help companies protect themselves in this uncharted territory.

From his perspective, this process effectively transfers some of the risk from board members to advisors.

Bishara further emphasized the importance of documenting the specific evaluation of a transaction in board minutes, noting that if a director disagrees with a crypto strategy, they should “disagree with it in the minutes” in order to ensure that their individual interests are protected.

The need for rigorous board oversight is being driven home by the insurance market. Bishara observed that even if a company’s actual risk profile has not changed, the cost of mitigating risk through Directors and Officers (D&O) insurance is skyrocketing as the number of carriers willing to underwrite these risks has shrunk significantly.

“I am quite certain that we are going to see policy language that specifically discusses or removes some of these potential pieces of liability, specifically in companies that are not insuring for these types of transactions,” Bishara predicted, adding that standard insurance companies will likely add no-crypto clauses to their policies.

“I would definitely expect that more, not from the crypto underwriters, but more from the non-crypto underwriters, to really make sure that they’re not winding up on a risk accidentally,’ he also noted.

For investors, Bishara suggested that a company’s inability to secure affordable D&O insurance should be viewed as a significant red flag regarding the health of its balance sheet.

Investor takeaway

Bishara’s front-row seat to operational crypto-utility and high-frequency transactional modeling has helped shape his view of where the market is headed in 2026 and beyond. While the DAT model dominated the 2024/2025 cycle, he believes the space is rapidly evolving into a new phase of business.

“I think it’s a great space for really exploring how the world is going to evolve and change,” he said.

For investors, the key to long-term value may lie in distinguishing between a company that is simply HODLing, and a firm that is building a transactional component.

Bishara pointed to emerging business models where firms are moving beyond treasury strategies to become operational, transactional companies that use crypto to power everyday transactions.

As the 2026 regulatory and insurance landscape tightens, focus will likely shift away from those chasing short-term stock premiums and toward those using DeFi to build sustainable, potentially undervalued business models.

1. Teck Resources (TSX:TECK.A,TSX:TECK.B)

Market cap: C$31.25 billion
Share price: C$62.65

Teck Resources is a major global polymetallic miner, as well as one of the world’s top zinc producers. The company is headquartered in Vancouver, British Columbia.

The Canadian company produced 615,900 metric tons (MT) of zinc in concentrate in 2024, with 555,600 MT coming from its Red Dog zinc mine in Alaska, US. The remaining 60,300 MT came from Teck’s 22.5 percent share of zinc production from the Peru-based Antamina copper-zinc mine.

Teck’s total 2025 production guidance for the base metal is set in a range of 525,000 to 575,000 MT. As of September, the company’s zinc production for the year totaled 456,000 MT.

In addition to the sites mentioned, Teck owns the Trail operations, which it describes as “one of the world’s largest fully integrated zinc and lead smelting and refining complexes.” Located in BC, the Trail operations produced 256,000 MT of refined zinc in 2024, with 190,000 to 230,000 MT of the material expected in 2025.

In September, Teck agreed to combine with mining giant Anglo American (LSE:AAL,OTCQX:NGLOY) in a C$70 billion ‘merger of equals’ to create Anglo-Teck. The merged company would remain headquartered in Vancouver and become BC’s largest company ever.

Then on December 15, Canada’s federal government announced it had approved the deal after both companies committed to securing 4,000 Canadian jobs and spending C$4.5 billion over five years within Canada. The merger’s completion still requires approvals from other countries and regulatory reviews.

2. Foran Mining (TSX:FOM)

Market cap: C$2.62 billion
Share price: C$4.87

Foran Mining is a development company advancing its McIlvenna Bay project in Saskatchewan, Canada, toward production.

The property consists of 113 claims covering an area of 140,445 hectares near Flin Flon on Saskatchewan’s border with Manitoba.

A technical report from the project released in March 2025 demonstrated an indicated resource of 1.86 billion pounds of zinc at an average grade of 2.18 percent from 38.6 million metric tons of ore, plus an inferred resource of 260 million pounds at a grade of 2.6 percent from 4.5 million metric tons.

In December 2025, Foran announced that development on the project was 79 percent complete, advancing on schedule and on budget, and the company remained on track to begin commercial production in mid-2026. It also said that at the end of November, ore stockpiles had reached approximately 165,000 metric tons.

‘Pre-commissioning activities are well underway, and progress to date demonstrates the operational readiness of our team and infrastructure,’ Foran Executive Chairman and CEO Dan Myerson stated. ‘… 2026 (is) an important transition year for Foran as the Company moves into production, while advancing Phase 2 planning and continued exploration focused on unlocking district scale potential.’

3. Trilogy Metals (TSX:TMQ)

Market cap: C$1.14 billion
Share price: C$6.66

Trilogy Metals is focused primarily on copper, zinc and cobalt at its Alaskan Upper Kobuk projects, which are held by Ambler Metals, a joint venture operating company owned equally by Trilogy and South32 (ASX:S32,OTC Pink:SHTLF).

Its most advanced zinc project is the Arctic copper-zinc-lead-gold-silver volcanogenic massive sulfide project, which is in the feasibility stage and has proven and probable reserves of 43.44 million MT grading 3.12 percent zinc.

In addition, early stage 2023 field work at the company’s wholly owned Helpmejack project in Alaska’s Ambler belt outlined two target areas prospective for volcanogenic massive sulfide and shale-hosted zinc deposits.

Trilogy had been focusing on improving access to the region with its Amber Access project, but it was rejected by the US Bureau of Land Management under the Biden administration in June 2024 due to the impact the proposed road could have on the environment and communities in the region, which has seen little development.

However, the current Trump administration has enacted a series of executive and secretarial orders focusing on developing Alaska’s natural resources, leading to the reversal of the decision.

On October 24, the company announced that the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority had issued a right-of-way permit for the road, re-establishing federal authorization for the project.

‘The execution of these federal permits marks a pivotal milestone for the Ambler Road and the State of Alaska,’ Trilogy Metals President and CEO Tony Giardini said.

4. Fireweed Metals (TSXV:FWZ)

Market cap: C$579.91 million
Share price: C$2.73

Fireweed Metals is a critical metals company whose flagship Macmillan Pass zinc project is located in Canada’s Yukon. In 2023, the company acquired the Gayna River zinc project in the Northwest Territories, as well as the Mactung tungsten project, which is adjacent to Macmillan Pass and straddles the border between Yukon and the Northwest Territories.

In November 2023, the Fireweed team, led by Dr. Jack Milton, the firm’s vice president of geology, received the Association for Mineral Exploration’s H.H. ‘Spud’ Huestis Award for its work at the Macmillan Pass property.

In September 2024, after its largest regional exploration campaign ever at Macmillan Pass, the company released an updated resource estimate for the Tom and Jason deposits, as well as inaugural resource estimates for the Boundary zone and End zone deposits.

Fireweed launched its 2025 field program in early June, planned to include 12,000 meters of diamond drilling at Macmillan Pass and 3,000 meters at Gayna.

On September 23, Fireweed reported one of the best assays ever recorded at Macmillan Pass from a 115 meter step-out hole at the Tom South target, which hosted a 54.82 meter intersection grading 18.2 percent zinc, including an interval of 7.1 meters with 32.82 percent zinc.

Then, in an update on December 11, the company announced its inaugural drilling at Gayna intersected zinc mineralization, with a highlighted assay of 51.22 meters grading 4.4 percent zinc, including 24 meters with 7.3 percent.

‘Our first season of drilling at Gayna successfully intersected significant zinc and lead mineralization at the Intrepid target, validating the prospectivity of the project,’ Fireweed Metals President and CEO Ian Gibbs said.

5. Emerita Resources (TSXV:EMO)

Market cap: C$167.89 million
Share price: C$0.57

Emerita Resources has a portfolio of high-grade, large-scale polymetallic projects covering more than 26,000 combined hectares in Spain’s Iberian Pyrite Belt. The company’s flagship asset is the Iberian Belt West project, which hosts three massive sulfide deposits: La Infanta, La Romanera and El Cura.

Emerita released a resource estimate for Iberian Belt West in May 2023. It finished environmental baseline studies the following month, and completed supporting documentation for its mining license application in December 2023.

In July 2024, the Andalusian government granted Iberian Belt West a declaration of strategic interest, which will streamline the process of moving the project through development.

Phase 2 metallurgical testing results for the La Romanera and La Infanta deposits released in late 2024 show that commercial-grade copper, lead and zinc concentrates can be obtained from both deposits.

In March of this year, Emerita announced an updated resource estimate for Iberian Belt West, showing a 35 percent increase to the total indicated mineral resource tonnage and a 44 percent increase in total inferred mineral resource tonnage.

The total indicated resource stands at 547,000 metric tons of zinc, with an average grade of 2.88 percent zinc, from 18.96 million metric tons of ore, and the inferred resource is 221,000 metric tons from 6.8 million metric tons grading 3.25 percent zinc.

The company has continued to explore the site through the rest of 2025. On October 17, the company announced it had extended the El Cura deposit by 90 meters and highlighted one intersection measuring 4.1 meters with a grade of 8.5 percent zinc.