Trump and cross-border cooperation

Milewski also stressed the need for strong partnerships and supply chains between the US and Canada, noting that this extends beyond mine building to encompass refining and processing.

“It’s two parts. It’s the opportunity to build the project, but then it also is important that we see more refining capacity being built out, because you need both in order to make this interesting,” he said.

Switching to the topic of Trump’s proposed tariffs on Canada, Milewski called the threat “noise and bluster.”

However, he lent more credence to the president’s proposal to acquire Greenland. “I think they’re serious about Greenland. I think that that’s actually something that they intend to do, if they can,” he said.

He sees the desire to attain Greenland as being fueled by the US government’s increased focus on securing domestic supply chains for critical minerals amid rising geopolitical tensions. Greenland’s move toward self-determination, China’s firm stance on Taiwan and the ongoing war in Ukraine have underscored the strategic importance of resources like rare earths, antimony and cobalt, which are vital for the defense and technology sectors.

Milewski explained to listeners at VRIC that the US maintained large stockpiles of critical minerals during World War II and the Cold War, but later sold them off, leaving its supply chain vulnerable. Now, policymakers are reconsidering stockpiling and domestic mining, with potential projects in Alaska gaining attention.

If the US moves to rebuild its reserves of key commodities, there could be major price swings in minor metals, where even small market shifts create volatility. For investors, this presents significant opportunities, as mining equities offer leveraged exposure to these potential supply disruptions and policy changes, he added.

“I think the market is lining up to be incredibly bullish for most commodities,” he said.

Be ready for spiky silver to move

Attitudes were similar at VRIC’s silver outlook panel, which was moderated by Jesse Day of Commodity Culture, and featured Jeff Clark, Peter Spina, Peter Krauth and Glenn Jessome.

The panelists honed in on the metal’s strong performance in 2024, when prices rose as much as 46.62 percent by October and ended the year at US$29 per ounce, a 22 percent increase from US$23.68 at the start of the year.

Day pointed to the discrepancy between silver’s stellar streak and the performance of silver equities.

“We know from history that silver is very spiky,” said Jeff Clark, editor of Paydirt Prospector.

“There’s been 10 to 12 major spikes in silver since the 1970s, and the time in between is very boring … (but) then all of a sudden it takes off, and the move is, frankly, sometimes violent,’ he continued.

‘You have to be prepared. You have to be in before that happens, and that includes the equities.’

Clark went on to explain that silver has been in a bear market for over four years since being propelled higher during COVID-19 peak, but history suggests sentiment will eventually shift.

“As far as catalysts go, it could be anything. Roughly half of all the catalysts for gold and silver since the 1970s have been black swans, so you don’t have to try to predict what the catalyst is going to be. You just have to be invested at an appropriate, meaningful level before the next one kicks in,” said Clark.

Silver squeeze still to come?

Picking up on Clark’s points, Peter Spina, president and CEO of GoldSeek.com and SilverSeek.com, underscored the supply and demand fundamentals for the precious and industrial metal.

“We have huge structural supply deficits,” he told the VRIC audience.

“We have a lot of things going in favor of silver right now — the silver squeeze didn’t really materialize as many people had hoped, but we are closer to an actual silver squeeze now than we were years ago.”

According to a November report from Metals Focus, the silver market is poised to record its fourth consecutive deficit in 2024, driven by strong industrial demand and limited supply growth.

The market overview projects that global silver demand will rise 1 percent to 1.21 billion ounces, with industrial use — especially in solar panels and electric vehicle technology — surpassing 700 million ounces for the first time.

Although mine production in several regions is on the rise, building demand from green energy and electrification has tightened supply, leaving the market structurally undersupplied, the report explains.

These fundamentals have added tailwinds to the silver price, which currently above US$30.

“The silver price is starting to push into some really interesting territory where we could see another big move. These things happen very quickly. It is a very volatile metal, and you have to have an appropriate time perspective and stomach for this market at times,’ Spina explained during the panel.

“But if you take a mid to longer-term view of this market, I think the risk reward is quite appealing right now.’

Silver strong long term, patience needed

For Peter Krauth, editor of Silver Stock Investor, silver has strong long-term upside, but patience is key.

He explained that although the silver market is in deficit, secondary inventories have prevented the strong price breakout many investors are looking for. However, now this source of supply is being more and more depleted.

Krauth reiterated Clark and Spina’s points about being in the right place at the right time.

“You have to be in this space,’ he said. “You can’t benefit or profit from it if you’re not there.”

While juniors offer higher risk and reward, Krauth noted that silver investors don’t have to bet on juniors.

He explained that in previous cycles, larger players like Silver Wheaton — now Wheaton Precious Metals (TSX:WPM,NYSE:WPM) — and Pan American Silver (TSX:PAAS,NASDAQ:PAAS) saw massive gains.

In-licensing vs out-licensing

The differences between in-licensing vs out-licensing lies in whether the pharma company is selling itself as a partner or selling its product to another company.

In an out-licensing agreement, the licensor grants the licensee the rights to sell its pharmaceutical product, typically in return for royalties, upfront fees or milestone payments. In this way the licensor can generate revenue and potentially enter new markets, while mitigating the risks of navigating the regulatory pathway and costs of marketing.

Where is aluminum found in the world?

While it is one of the Earth’s most abundant metals, aluminum is rarely found as a free metal. That means companies can’t actually mine for the metal itself — instead, they mine bauxite, which is a large source of the world’s aluminum production. The bauxite is processed to obtain alumina, which is then refined further through smelting to produce aluminum.

According to the US Geological Survey, ‘As a general rule, 4 tons of dried bauxite is required to produce 2 tons of alumina, which, in turn, can be used to produce 1 ton of aluminum.’ There are other sources of alumina, including clay and oil shale, but they are not economical at a commercial scale.

The US Geological Survey estimates global bauxite resources to be between 55 billion and 75 billion metric tons with deposits distributed largely in Africa, Oceania, South America, the Caribbean and Asia. Known bauxite reserves stood at 30 billion metric tons in 2023. The five nations with the highest bauxite reserves are Guinea, Vietnam, Australia, Brazil and Jamaica.

In terms of bauxite production, Australia was the world’s largest producer in 2023 at 98 million metric tons of bauxite, closely followed by Guinea at 97 million MT and China at 93 million MT. Brazil and India round out the top five with 31 million and 23 million metric tons of bauxite respectively.

The next step is processing bauxite ore into alumina. China is by far the world’s largest alumina producer, accounting for nearly 59 percent of the world’s production at 82 million metric tons. The next largest alumina producing country, Australia, accounts for more than 13 percent of global supply with 19 million MT. Brazil, India and Russia round out the top five.

Aluminum production by country

The US Geological Survey notes that world aluminum output increased slightly in 2023, coming in at 70 million metric tons (MT) compared to 68.4 million MT in 2022. Below is a look at the nations that make up the world’s top aluminum-producing countries.

1. China

Aluminum production: 41 million metric tons

First on this list of aluminum-producing countries is China, which produced 41 million metric tons of aluminum in 2023, more than half of total global production. China also consumes a considerable amount of aluminum.

Statista points out that China has experienced consistent growth in primary annual aluminum production over the past decade. In 2023, China’s aluminum production increased to a record high for a second year in a row. Production got a boost from ‘strong operations in some of China’s main producing regions, amid profitable conditions, and new projects, chiefly in the northern Inner Mongolia region, that came online,’ Reuters reported.

2. India

Aluminum production 4.1 million metric tons

The second largest aluminum producer is India, which produced 4.1 million metric tons of aluminum in 2023. India has also seen its output grow consistently in recent years. In 2021, its production totaled 3.97 million MT, overtaking Russia, and over the past two years, India has increased its aluminum production even further.

Hindalco Industries (NSE:HINDALCO), the world’s leading aluminum-rolling company, is located in Mumbai. Vedanta (NSE:VEDL), India’s largest aluminum-producing company, expects to invest US$1 billion in its aluminum operations in 2024.

Indian exports are not expected to be heavily impacted by European Union carbon taxes on direct emissions set to go into effect in 2026. The EU is the second largest aluminum consuming region in the world.

3. Russia

Aluminum production: 3.8 million metric tons

Last year, Russia produced 3.8 million metric tons of aluminum, up slightly from the 3.7 million MT it put out in 2022. Leading global aluminum producer RUSAL is headquartered in Moscow.

Russia’s aggressive war in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions were expected to curb the country’s ability to contribute aluminum supply to the global aluminum market; however, China is picking up much of the slack. Rusal has reported that its year-on-year revenues for aluminum exports to China almost doubled in 2023.

4. Canada

Aluminum production: 3 million metric tons

Canada’s aluminum production was 3 million metric tons in 2023, up from the previous year’s total of 2.77 million MT of aluminum. Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO), another leading global aluminum producer, has roughly 16 operations in the country.

The province of Québec is the main aluminum jurisdiction in Canada. There are 10 primary aluminum smelters in Canada, with nine of those being located in Québec, and the province is also home to an alumina refinery. The final smelter is located across the country in the province of British Columbia.

Canada was again the leading supplier of imported aluminum for the US in 2023, accounting for more than half of all imports.

5. United Arab Emirates

Aluminum production: 2.7 million metric tons

Fifth on this list of aluminum-producing countries is the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which produced 2.7 million metric tons. Aluminum production in the UAE has remained steady over the last few years, and came in at 2.65 million MT in 2022.

Emirates Global Aluminum is the largest aluminum producer in the Middle East and contributes nearly 4 percent of all global aluminum. The UAE was the source of 8 percent of US aluminum imports in 2023.

6. Bahrain

Aluminum production: 1.6 million metric tons

Bahrain’s aluminum production came in at 1.6 million metric tons in 2023, on par with the previous year, when it overtook Australia for the sixth spot. The aluminum sector is one of the largest sources of export revenue for Bahrain, taking in US$3 billion in 2023.

Formed in 1981, the Gulf Aluminium Rolling Mill in Bahrain was the first aluminum facility in the Middle East. The downstream has an annual production capacity of more than 165,000 metric tons of flat-rolled aluminum products.

7. Australia

Aluminum production: 1.5 million metric tons

Australia’s aluminum production was down marginally in 2023 at 1.5 million metric tons compared to 1.51 million MT the previous year. In addition to its work as a major aluminum producer in Canada, Rio Tinto also produces the industrial metal in Australia at two of the country’s four aluminum smelters. The mining major sees aluminum as a valuable resource in the new automotive industry.

However, Australia’s aluminum market has been struggling under the weight of the heavy energy costs associated with smelter operations for a number of years now. “Australia is one of the world’s most emissions-intensive aluminium producers,” as per the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.

Pittsburgh-based Alcoa (NYSE:AA), another of the world’s largest aluminum producing companies, operates the Kwinana refinery in Western Australia. In January, the firm announced it plans to close up shop at Kwinana later in 2024 due to challenging economics.

8. Norway

Aluminum production: 1.3 million metric tons

Aluminum production in Norway declined in 2023 to 1.3 million metric tons, down from the 1.4 million MT produced in the previous year. Norway is the largest exporter of primary aluminum in the European Union.

Norsk Hydro (OTCQX:NHYKF,OSE:NHY), a Norwegian aluminum and renewable energy company, has a number of aluminum projects and plants in the country. At Sunndal, Norsk Hydro operates the largest primary aluminum plant in Europe.

In its bid to reach zero-carbon aluminum, Hydro announced in June 2024 that it is beginning a three-year industrial scale pilot that will test the use of green hydrogen to power aluminum recycling at the recycling unit in its Høyanger plant Norway.

9. Brazil

Aluminum production: 1.1 million metric tons

Brazil’s aluminum output in 2023 rose by more than 35 percent over the previous year to reach 1.1 million MT, and displace the United States from the ninth top spot for global production.

The country is home to the world’s third largest bauxite reserves, and was the fourth largest bauxite production and third largest alumina production levels by country in 2023. This makes the likelihood of Brazil gaining a further footprint in the global aluminum market very possible, especially given plans by the country’s industry leaders to invest R$30 billion in the domestic market by 2025.

The largest producer of primary aluminum in Brazil is Albras, which has annual production of about 460,000 metric tons of aluminum using renewable energy sources. Albras is a 51/49 joint venture between Norsk Hydro and Nippon Amazon Aluminum Co. (NAAC), a consortium of Japanese companies, trading companies, consumers and manufacturers of aluminum products. In August 2024, Mitsui & Co (TSE:8031) increased its stake in NAAC from 21 to 46 percent in order to increase its offtake of green aluminum.

10. Malaysia

Aluminum production: 980,000 metric tons

Malaysia rounds out the top 10 list of largest aluminum producing countries with 980,000 metric tons of output. The Southeast Asian nation’s output of the metal has boomed dramatically in the last decade; Malaysia’s aluminum production in 2012 was just 121,900 MT.

Aluminium Company of Malaysia, or Alcom, is both the largest producer of rolled aluminum products in the country and Malaysia’s largest aluminum producer. It is part of the holding company Alcom Group (KLSE:2674).

S&P Global reports that Chinese firms are keen on opening aluminum smelting operations in Malaysia. This includes the Bosai group, which is planning a 1 million MT per year operation in the country.

On Friday, Trudeau said Trump’s desire to turn Canada into the 51st state is a “real thing.” Right wing trolls exploded, saying Trudeau was lying. Today, Trump was asked directly and he said … yes, it’s a real thing. When awful people show you how awful they are, believe them. https://t.co/UHcj7blI5Z

— Gil McGowan (@gilmcgowan) February 9, 2025

The Associated Press reported that Trudeau’s office has not responded to requests for comment, but Alberta Federation of Labor President Gil McGowan later confirmed the prime minister’s assessment.

McGowan, who was at the meeting, wrote on social media that Trudeau believes Trump’s real agenda is not just about fentanyl, immigration or even the trade deficit, but about dominating Canada economically — or taking it outright.

Canada-US trade war escalates

Days after Trudeau’s remarks were leaked, Trump confirmed his administration will impose 25 percent tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports, reviving a trade war that first erupted in 2018.

Back then, the Trump administration imposed similar tariffs under the justification of national security concerns, prompting Canada to retaliate with counter tariffs on US goods such as orange juice and whiskey.

The dispute ended in 2019, when an agreement was reached to monitor steel and aluminum flows, preventing so-called ‘surges’ in imports. Trump has long criticized the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), the successor to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and has vowed to renegotiate it.

The agreement is scheduled for a mandatory review in 2026, but Québec Premier François Legault called for immediate discussions in a recent social media post to prevent further economic uncertainty.

This is the next four years. Shifting goalposts and constant chaos, putting our economy at risk.

I’m asking the people for a strong, stable, four-year mandate that outlasts the Trump administration to do whatever it takes, to always be ready to protect Ontario. https://t.co/9lht8GlSHd

— Doug Ford (@fordnation) February 9, 2025

Ontario Premier Doug Ford echoed those concerns, calling Trump’s trade policies a destabilizing force.

‘This is the next four years — shifting goalposts and constant chaos, putting our economy at risk,’ Ford said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, on Sunday (February 9).

‘Fentanyl crisis’ at the forefront of trade relations

Trump’s latest tariffs have been tied to his broader concerns over border security, particularly the trafficking of fentanyl and illegal immigration, issues that he raised on the campaign trail.

Earlier this month, he threatened to impose sweeping 25 percent tariffs on all Canadian and Mexican imports starting February 1 unless both countries took stronger measures to secure their borders. After negotiations with Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, the White House agreed to delay the tariffs for 30 days.

Canada has since announced a US$1.3 billion border security initiative, which includes increased patrols, aerial surveillance and the appointment of a new “fentanyl czar” to coordinate efforts with US officials.

Despite the extension, Trudeau has made it clear that Canada won’t accept blame for America’s fentanyl crisis.

“We need to be very deliberate about how we continue to engage closely with the United States to make the case that Canada is responsible for a tiny part of the North American fentanyl problem, but that we are also bitterly touched by this tragedy,” the prime minister said in public remarks on February 7.

Canada’s resource wealth in the spotlight

Trump’s remarks about Canada’s economic dependence on the US come at a time when the country is making moves to accelerate its critical minerals industry and solidify its spot in the supply chain.

Last week, the BC government shared plans to fast track 18 mining and energy projects worth about US$20 billion.

“They’re being held up in some kind of administrative or regulatory or government process,” BC Premier David Eby said of the assets, which include the Eskay Creek gold-silver project in Northwest BC. “We can expedite that, get those shovels in the ground. And with particular attention to more rural and remote communities.”

The Mining Association of BC welcomed the announcement, pointing out that Canada’s resource sector will play a crucial role in global supply chains; however, other entities have expressed concerns about deregulation.

The province has 17 additional critical mineral projects in the pipeline, with several expected to enter permitting processes this year.

US export hub

According to BC Stats, the US accounted for 54 percent of the province’s exports in 2023.

Of those exports, 67 percent were in the wood, pulp and paper, metallic mineral and energy sectors. China and Japan were the next largest markets, representing 14 percent and 11 percent, respectively.

The BC government continues to evaluate additional projects for fast tracking, with further announcements expected in the coming weeks.

Fast tracked projects raise regulatory concerns

Some environmental groups have raised concerns about the fast-tracking decision.

The CBC quotes Jessica Clogg of West Coast Environmental Law, who suggests that economic uncertainty is being used to justify projects that may have otherwise faced greater scrutiny.

‘I do think it’s shameful that resource companies and the business sectors are taking advantage of the current economic instability to apparently put forward a list of potentially risky projects,’ she commented.

Several projects have also drawn opposition from Indigenous groups. The Eskay Creek and Red Chris mines have faced resistance from Alaskan Indigenous governments due to environmental concerns.

In BC, the Tahltan Nation has voiced dismay about the decision to fast track those projects, noting that they are both located in Tahltan territory and pointing to a lack of consultation.

“We fully acknowledge that developments in the United States have raised economic concerns in Canada and we share those concerns,” President Beverly Slater wrote in a February 7 statement.

“For the Tahltan Nation, our priority, as always, is ensuring that our Title and Rights, as well as our human rights, are fully upheld and respected. This involves properly assessing the economic, environmental, social, and cultural dimensions of any project proposed in our Territory consistent with any agreement that has been entered into by the Tahltan Nation and British Columbia pursuant to section 7 of the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act.”

The expansion of the Highland Valley copper mine, owned by Teck Resources (TSX:TECK.A,TSX:TECK.B,NYSE:TECK) has been challenged by the Skeetchestn and Tk’emlúps te Secwépemc bands in BC’s interior.

Dix stated that consultations with Indigenous communities will continue. He noted that several wind power projects are structured to be at least 50 percent Indigenous-owned.