Increased demand adding to supply draw down

According to the new report, the platinum deficit deepened in Q4 on the back of weaker recycling supply and stronger investment demand, coming in 313,000 ounces deeper than the council forecasted in its Q3 2024 report released in November.

In total, the last quarter of 2024 saw 360,000 ounces of demand uptake from investor inflows into the platinum market. On a more granular level, this demand came from 92,000 ounces of platinum bar and coin purchases, 142,000 ounces in platinum inflows to exchange traded funds (ETFs) and 126,000 ounces of platinum moving into exchange stocks. The WPIC defines exchange stocks as ‘platinum ounces held in approved storage facilities that serve as collateral for futures positioning.’

“So back in December, when the incoming Trump administration started talking about the threat of tariffs, we began to see that impact on the commodity markets in terms of distorting the flow of metals versus what would happen normally,” he said.

Similar to what was reported in gold markets, this resulted in institutional players moving physical products from Europe into New York Mercantile Exchange-approved warehouses in the United States.

“They needed to get that into the States because they’ve suddenly begun to worry that they might have to pay tariffs when they bring that material in in the future, and that would obviously impinge on profitability,” Sterck said.

Watch the full interview with WPIC’s Ed Sterck above.

In its projection for 2025, Sterck said the council sees a continuation of trends from 2024 and is predicting a third year of platinum deficits with an 848,000 ounce shortfall.

In its initial assessment, the WPIC expected 150,000 ounces of full year demand to come from exchange inflows to the NYMEX, but according to Sterck, 275,000 ounces have already been moved since the start of the year.

“You can see that even to get to our number for 2025, you’d have to have quite a significant unwinding of those NYMEX exchange stock flows to get back to where our full year estimate is. So if we were to close the year today, the deficit would be more substantial than our current projection,” he said.

Trump policy, the auto industry and platinum

If US tariffs on Mexico and Canada do come into effect, platinum investors and the auto industry are likely to feel the pinch.

Sterck explained that, while the bulk of North American auto manufacturing is carried out in the United States, the auto sector is highly integrated. Mexico manufactures about 45 percent of the United States’ automobile parts and 15 percent of the country’s vehicles, and Canada supplies an additional 10 percent and 7.5 percent respectively.

These automobile parts include the catalytic converters, which have significant load-outs of the core platinum group metals (PGMs): platinum, palladium and rhodium.

According to Sterck, the overall fear is that the increased cost of new cars for US consumers caused by the tariffs will reduce demand, putting downward pressure on PGMs as well.

“In terms of platinum, the downside risk to platinum demand on our numbers in a worst-case scenario is about 97,000 ounces. For palladium, it’s more substantial, something in the order of 350,000 ounces,” he said.

While this may more significantly impact palladium markets, Sterck doesn’t see this potential hit to platinum demand shifting the platinum deficit that the WPIC is predicting for 2025.

Other policy decisions by the new US administration will likely provide support for platinum, however.

‘Sadly, it looks like the US is going to be rolling back on its environmental commitments,’ Sterck said. ‘Obviously, that could be positive in terms of petroleum demand for PGMs (and) internal combustion engine demand for PGMs.’

Additionally, slowing of demand growth for electric vehicles (EVs) adds potential tailwinds for automotive platinum demand. Sterck suggests several factors contribute to the slowing rates, including US policy and backlash against Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA).

While some consumers are turning to battery electric vehicles from other automakers, he notes that the trend of slowing growth in EVs is leading more consumers to look to cars with internal combustion engines, both traditional and hybrid, which require PGMs in their catalytic converters.

Supply side squeeze

On the supply side, Sterck sees consistent contraction in the mining supply.

“The reality is that there isn’t a (solely) platinum mine in the world,” he said. ‘These mines all produce — and therefore their economics depend upon — multiple different metals. They all produce all six of the PGMs, plus gold (and) nickel, copper and chrome.’

However, Sterck explained that lower prices for palladium, rhodium and more recently chrome has led some of the miners to restructure operations to focus on profitability rather than output. While this has been successful at supporting the mines’ economics, it has caused output to fall significantly.

He also says that the overall impact of the reduced output has been masked by platinum stockpiles entering the market, with higher inventory levels introduced in 2024.

He pointed to South Africa as an example, which saw reduced smelter output and a stockpiling of concentrate in 2022 and 2023 due to power shortages. In 2024, the decline in mine production came alongside an upside in refining those stockpiled materials, which boosted full-year numbers.

Platinum supply from recycling is expected to remain about 20 percent below the 10 year average at 1,496,000 ounces, a decrease of 278,000 ounces from the WPIC’s 2025 forecast in its November release. This drop was the largest difference between the two releases.

Sterck explained that one cause of depressed recycling supply in 2024 and 2025 is declining supplies of end-of-life vehicles.

“Part of that is related to COVID impacting supply chains, and then the semiconductor shortage reducing new vehicle production in the past and consumers being forced to run new vehicles for longer,” he said. However, he said there could be other reasons that aren’t as apparent.

What should investors know about platinum in 2025

As Sterck pointed out, the platinum market was volatile at the beginning of the year, so the 2025 WPIC forecast may need to be significantly adjusted. However, the group said the market will continue to experience structural deficits in 2025.

While investment demand surged 77 percent in 2024, Sterck sees a pullback of 14 percent in 2025, but even that is high compared to previous years.

“Overall, I think we’ve got 606,000 ounces projected in terms of total demand for 2025, a respectable level that’s historically elevated,” he said.

One significant area of growth so far in 2025 is futures trading on the NYMEX, with Sterck pointing to a 500 percent year-on-year increase in January.

However, there hasn’t been much price movement so far. Platinum has largely traded in the US$900 to US$1,100 per ounce range for the past year, but unusually, with the increased trading volume, the prices have narrowed.

“There’s increasing competition within the market for some sort of price direction, and at some point, the price has to break out of that narrowing range,” he said.

Given the market conditions for platinum, the WPIC expects that breakout would be a positive one, but it’s not a guarantee.

“When prices break out, it can go in both directions, so we will have to wait and see,’ Sterck said. ‘But it’s certainly very interesting, and there’s a limited amount of time left before something really needs to change.’

Bitcoin and Ethereum price update

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at US$78,955.60, reflecting a 4.5 percent decrease over the past 24 hours. The day’s trading range has seen a high of US$82,763.28 and a low of US$77,494.60.

Ethereum (ETH) is priced at US$1,864.19, marking a decrease of 8.7 percent over the same period. The cryptocurrency reached an intraday high of US$2,113.22 and a low of US$1,829.01.

Altcoin price update

• Solana (SOL) is currently valued at US$119.32, down 7.7 percent over the past 24 hours. SOL rose to a high of US$127.93 and later fell to a low of US$116.08 on Monday.

• XRP is trading at US$2.07, reflecting a 4.4 percent decrease over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency recorded an intraday high of US$2.18 and a low of US$2.

• Sui (SUI) is priced at US$2.13, down 8.9 percent over the past 24 hours. It achieved a daily high of US$2.35 and a low of US$2.07.

• Cardano (ADA) is trading at US$0.6877, reflecting a 6 percent decrease over the past 24 hours. Its highest price on Monday was US$0.7319, with a low of US$0.6638.

Crypto news to know

Bitcoin sees biggest US dollar drop in a single week

Coinbase announced today (March 10) that it would begin offering 24/7 Bitcoin and Ethereum futures contracts and perpetual-style futures contracts, marking a first for both the company and the industry.

“We have been actively working with the (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), partners, and market participants to finalize the design and to ensure this product meets regulatory requirements as well as client needs,” the company said in a press release. Both are slated to launch in the coming weeks, but no launch date has been announced.

Coinbase to offer 24/7 Bitcoin and Ether futures in the US

Coinbase announced today (March 10) that it would begin offering 24/7 Bitcoin and Ethereum futures contracts and perpetual-style futures contracts, marking a first for both the company and the industry.

“We have been actively working with the (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), partners, and market participants to finalize the design and to ensure this product meets regulatory requirements as well as client needs,” the company said in a press release. Both are slated to launch in the coming weeks, but no launch date has been announced.

Michael Saylor shares his newest strategy

On March 10th, Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, announced a new sales agreement, called the ‘ATM Program,’ to raise US$21 billion in capital by issuing and selling shares of its 8 percent Series A perpetual strike preferred stock.

The funds raised will be used for general business operations and potentially to purchase more Bitcoin. According to its filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the company plans to sell these shares gradually, considering market conditions, and will use the proceeds for various corporate purposes, including Bitcoin acquisitions.

Previously, Strategy was known for directly purchasing Bitcoin with its existing capital or through debt offerings.

The CEO went on to underscore the abundant resource potential offered by Canada, Australia and Chile, while also noting the massive investments needed to propel the energy transition and global decarbonization.

“Done well, the meeting of the world’s growing need for critical minerals can transform communities, economies and countries for the better, and one need look no further than Canada or Australia or Chile, three resource-rich nations that have harnessed their resource endowment for the effective benefit of the people,” Henry said.

He added that this continued effort requires capital, offering investors strong returns by supporting the right companies, commodities and standards. As Henry explained, for copper alone an investment of US$250 billion will be needed over the next five to 10 years to keep pace with “surging local demand.”

When extrapolated to include other in-demand metals, that number balloons to US$800 billion between now and 2040.

The need for exploration investment was also reiterated by Kevin Murphy, director of metals and mining research with S&P Global Commodity Insights. During his presentation, he noted that mining exploration spending has dropped sharply from its highs in 2011 and 2012, with gold remaining the top target, followed by copper, uranium and lithium.

“I would consider exploration the canary in the coal mine for the mining industry in general; it’s the base of the pyramid, where mines are at the top and a huge amount of exploration, in theory, should be at the bottom,’ said Murphy. “If we look at where we currently are in exploration spending compared to historic amounts, we’re actually down a fair bit.”

Over the last decade, exploration expenditure has also shifted focus, from greenfield to mine site exploration.

“if you go back into the ’90s, even the early 2000s, generative, purely generative exploration, looking for new deposits. That was actually the preferred place to put your money,” explained Murphy.

“That has shifted greatly, so much so it’s now the least preferred. People are exploring their mines. They’re exploring assets with resources already proven, and they are moving further and further away from doing generative exploration.”

According to Murphy, greenfield exploration dropped significantly in 2024, raising concerns about long-term supply, particularly for copper, where major new discoveries have slowed. Gold has long focused on mine site exploration, while lithium and uranium, as younger commodities, are targeting assets with proven but undeveloped resources.

With financing challenges persisting in 2025 and market uncertainty growing, exploration budgets are expected to shrink further, except possibly for gold amid policy shifts.

Capital investment and supply growth

To ensure the long-term success of the energy transition and mineral pipeline, most presenters and panelists at PDAC agreed that capital investment is imperative.

During a lithium panel discussion, the vast amount of lithium needed for the electric vehicles (EVs) and energy storage was underscored as a crucial indicator of the amount of CAPEX the sector needs in the years ahead.

Lithium has been especially challenging, as the market swung into over supply in 2023 pushing prices down, also new technologies considered to still be in infancy are having issues ramping up output.

Near-term lithium supply faces challenges as key projects, especially in China, Chile, and Africa, struggle with delays due to financing, environmental, and permitting issues, Siddarth Subramani, director of lithium at Hatch told PDAC attendees.

He added that many projects are also ramping up slower than expected due to the industry’s lack of maturity.

In Argentina, lithium production is expected to grow from 75,000 tons to 300,000 metric tons by 2027, but technical and execution challenges could hinder this. A significant supply gap may emerge, pushing prices higher, but not enough to drive long-term production expansion.

A similar tone was struck during the Benchmark Summit, an event that coincides with PDAC. The day-long symposium focused on the supply chain of raw materials needed for the energy transition.

Increasing copper production will be pivotal in achieving global carbon reduction goals, as well as ensuring the energy transition can continue its implementation rate. To meet this demand, the globally diversified miner is looking to Latin America, especially Argentina and Chile, which represents a significant growth opportunity for copper supply in the coming years if the supportive policy environment continues.

During his address to Benchmark Summit guests, Tony Power, CEO of Anglo American’s (LSE:AAL,OTCQX:AAUKF) Peruvian operations, highlighted the growth potential Anglo’s Los Bronces asset in Chile possesses, describing it as the ‘gift that keeps giving.”

As Anglo works to expand the asset through underground development, Power was also forthcoming with the challenges that are facing the copper sector.

“It’s not getting cheaper to make copper mines. It’s getting more and more expensive,” said Power. “So the only way to offset that is the price of copper to go up to be able to sustain that capital investment.”

The impact of AI

While financing and supplying the energy transition were obvious themes, the unexpected demand forecasted by AI data centers and generative technologies emerged as an equally important focus at the world’s largest mining-centric conference.

The world’s growing adoption of AI paired with mass electrification are projected to push electricity demand up by 80 percent by 2050, a factor many energy transition reports did not take into consideration.

Getting ahead of this demand several tech companies penned nuclear power agreements deals in 2024. While the headline making deals brought attention to the nuclear sector, little attention was paid to the required upstream growth needed to supply U3O8 to those reactors.

Per Jander, director of Nuclear Fuel at WMC underscored the magnitude of nuclear energy needed to meet the ever growing global electricity demand.

Unlike traditional data centers, AI facilities require immense power and advanced cooling systems, such as liquid cooling, due to their high-intensity computing needs. This sector is still in its early stages, yet demand is already surging, with AI operations consuming 50 terawatt-hours annually, explained Jander.

“Then 100 terawatt hours by 2027,” he said, adding that he got that figure from Deepseek. “So it comes from itself.”

Additionally, Jander also asked several AI assistants which energy source they preferred.

“Three out of four said I want fusion,” said Jander, noting he didn’t limit the AI to specific energy types. “But one … said that (it) wanted to use nuclear power.”

Uranium isn’t the only sector expected to see a demand spike from the AI data center proliferation.

Noting that electrification is already pushing copper towards deficit, Micheal Meding, VP and GM at McEwen Copper (TSX:MUX,NYSE:MUX) believes AI electricity needs could tip that scale further.

“Data centers require huge amounts of copper and require a lot of energy, that energy needs to be generated and transported,” he said during a copper panel discussion at the Benchmark Summit. “So I think we haven’t really understood how much of this metal is going to be needed in the future.”