The U.S. has designated three branches of the Muslim Brotherhood as terrorist organizations, in a move that could impact Washington’s relationships with Qatar and Turkey.

The Treasury and State departments announced the moves against the Lebanese, Jordanian and Egyptian chapters of the group, which the Trump administration asserts pose risks to the U.S.

The State Department gave the Lebanese branch of the Muslim Brotherhood the most severe of its labels, designating it a foreign terrorist organization, which makes it illegal to provide material support to the group, The Associated Press reported. Additionally, the Treasury Department labeled the Jordanian and Egyptian branches as specially designated global terrorists for providing support to Hamas. The Lebanese chapter of the Muslim Brotherhood was also given a special designation by the Treasury Department.

‘These designations reflect the opening actions of an ongoing, sustained effort to thwart Muslim Brotherhood chapters’ violence and destabilization wherever it occurs,’ Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement, according to the AP. ‘The United States will use all available tools to deprive these Muslim Brotherhood chapters of the resources to engage in or support terrorism.’

The labeling of the Jordanian chapter as a specially designated global terrorists comes months after Amman announced a sweeping ban on the organization. The AP noted that while the Jordanian monarchy had previously banned the Muslim Brotherhood a decade ago, it officially licensed a splinter group and continued to tolerate the Islamic Action Front while restricting some of its activities. The Islamic Action Front, a political party linked to the Muslim Brotherhood, won several seats in the 2024 parliamentary elections.

In November, President Donald Trump issued an executive order calling for ‘certain chapters or other subdivisions of the Muslim Brotherhood’ to be considered for designation as foreign terrorist organizations and specially designated global terror organizations.

The Muslim Brotherhood’s ‘chapters in Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt engage in or facilitate and support violence and destabilization campaigns that harm their own regions, United States citizens, and United States interests,’ the executive order reads.

The order goes on to state that after the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Israel, ‘the military wing of the Lebanese chapter of the Muslim Brotherhood joined Hamas, Hezbollah, and Palestinian factions to launch multiple rocket attacks against both civilian and military targets within Israel.’ It also adds that the Egyptian chapter of the Muslim Brotherhood ‘called for violent attacks’ against U.S. partners and interests on Oct. 7, 2023. Additionally, the order states that the Jordanian chapter’s leaders ‘have long provided material support to the militant wing of Hamas.’

Both Florida and Texas have designated the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization, something Trump contemplated doing in 2019 during his first term in office.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Former President Bill Clinton appears to have defied a congressional subpoena to appear before the House Oversight Committee on Tuesday morning.

Clinton was compelled to sit for a sworn closed-door deposition in the House’s bipartisan probe into Jeffrey Epstein, but Fox News Digital did not see him before or after the scheduled 10 a.m. grilling.

House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer, R-Ky., had threatened to begin contempt of Congress proceedings against Clinton if he did not appear Tuesday.

Comer said Tuesday morning, ‘We will move next week in the House Oversight Committee … to hold Bill Clinton in contempt of Congress.’

‘I think everyone knows by now Bill Clinton did not show up. And I think it’s important to note that this subpoena was voted on in a bipartisan manner by this committee,’ Comer told reporters after formally ending the deposition.

‘No one’s accusing Bill Clinton of any wrongdoing. We just have questions. And that’s why the Democrats voted, along with Republicans, to subpoena Bill Clinton.’

He said ‘not a single Democrat’ showed up to the deposition on Tuesday.

Other lawmakers seen going into the committee room include Reps. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., Andy Biggs, R-Ariz., Michael Cloud, R-Texas, Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., and Scott Perry, R-Pa.

Hillary Clinton had also been subpoenaed to appear on Wednesday but likely will not show up.

The Clintons’ attorney sent Comer a letter confirming they’re challenging the legality of the subpoenas issued against them.

‘[T]he Subpoenas issued to President and Secretary Clinton are invalid and legally unenforceable. Mindful of these defects, we trust you will engage in good faith to de-escalate this dispute,’ reads the letter, obtained by Fox News Digital.

The Clintons’ attorneys tore into Comer’s leadership of the investigation, accusing him of violating the Constitution’s separation of powers and trying to obfuscate the search for real information.

‘President and Secretary Clinton have already provided the limited information they possess about Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell to the Committee. They did so proactively and voluntarily, and despite the fact that the Subpoenas are invalid and legally unenforceable, untethered to a valid legislative purpose, unwarranted because they do not seek pertinent information, and an unprecedented infringement on the separation of powers,’ the letter said.

‘Your continued insistence that the former President and Secretary of State can be compelled to appear before the Committee under these circumstances, however, brings us toward a protracted and unnecessary legal confrontation that distracts from the principal work of the Congress with respect to this matter, which, if conducted sincerely, could help ensure the victims of Mr. Epstein and Ms. Maxwell are afforded some measure of justice for the crimes perpetrated against them, however late. But perhaps distraction is the point.’

Fox News Digital asked Comer if he would also move to hold Hillary Clinton in contempt next week if she defies the subpoena, to which he said, ‘We’ll see. We’ll talk about it.’

If the contempt resolution advances through committee next week, it will then be on the entire House to vote on whether to refer the former president for criminal charges.

A criminal contempt of Congress charge is a misdemeanor that carries a punishment of up to one year in jail and a maximum $100,000 fine if convicted.

Burchett, however, told reporters he was not confident that the Department of Justice (DOJ) would pursue such a referral.

‘I’ve been really disappointed in our Justice Department, so I would hope that maybe they’re making some changes over there,’ Burchett said.

The former first couple were two of 10 people who Comer initially subpoenaed in the House’s Epstein investigation after a unanimous bipartisan vote directed him to do so last year. Fox News Digital was first to report on the subpoenas in August.

Clinton was known to be friendly with the late pedophile before his federal charges but was never implicated in any wrongdoing related to him.

President Donald Trump urged the people of Iran to ‘take over’ the country’s institutions on Tuesday, saying he has canceled all meetings with the Iranian regime until its crackdown on unrest ends.

Trump made the announcement on social media, vowing that those responsible for killing anti-regime demonstrators will ‘pay a big price.’ Iran had previously claimed it was in contact with U.S. officials amid the protests.

‘Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING – TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!’ Trump wrote on Truth Social. ‘Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price.’

‘I have canceled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON ITS WAY,’ he added.

Since the unrest broke out, Iranian authorities have killed at least 646 protesters, with thousands more deaths expected to be confirmed. Reuters reported the death toll at 2,000, citing an unnamed Iranian official.

The White House confirmed on Monday that Trump was weighing whether to bomb Iran in reaction to the crackdown.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that diplomacy remains Trump’s first option, but that the president ‘has shown he’s unafraid to use military options if and when he deems necessary.’

‘He certainly doesn’t want to see people being killed in the streets of Tehran. And unfortunately that’s something we are seeing right now,’ she added.

Iranian authorities have used deadly force against anti-regime protesters and have cut off public internet access in an effort to stop images and video from spreading across the globe.

The protests represent the highest level of unrest Iran has seen since nationwide protests against the death of Mahsa Amini at the hands of morality police in 2022.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz went so far as to predict an end to Ayatollah Ali Khamenie’s regime.

‘I assume that we are now witnessing the final days and weeks of this regime,’ he told reporters while in India on Tuesday.

‘When a regime can only maintain power through violence, then it is effectively at its end. The population is now rising up against this regime,’ he added.

Former President Bill Clinton appears to have defied a congressional subpoena to appear before the House Oversight Committee on Tuesday morning.

Clinton was compelled to sit for a sworn closed-door deposition in the House’s bipartisan probe into Jeffrey Epstein, but Fox News Digital did not see him before or after the scheduled 10 a.m. grilling.

House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer, R-Ky., had threatened to begin contempt of Congress proceedings against Clinton if he did not appear Tuesday.

Other lawmakers seen going into the committee room include Reps. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., and Scott Perry, R-Pa.

This story is breaking and will be updated.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., warned that the allegations against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell must be legitimate, and not politically influenced, as bipartisan unease over the criminal probe continues to ripple through the Senate. 

‘I haven’t seen the case or whatever the allegations or charges are,’ Thune said. ‘But I would say they better be — they better be real and they better be serious.’

Thune’s comments followed a wave of bipartisan anger over the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) criminal probe into Powell, with Senate Republicans threatening to block any of President Donald Trump’s future Fed nominees until the issue was resolved. 

Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., vowed to ‘oppose the confirmation of any nominee for the Fed — including the upcoming Fed chair vacancy,’ shortly after the news of the probe into Powell broke.

He was later backed up by Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, who said after speaking with the central bank chief that ‘it’s clear the administration’s investigation is nothing more than an attempt at coercion,’ and she threatened a congressional investigation into the DOJ. 

When asked about Tillis’ position, Thune said that people would ‘react to this differently,’ but reiterated that without knowing the full breadth of the investigation, it was hard to jump to conclusions. 

‘But as I’ve said earlier, I think it’s really important that it can resolve quickly and that there not be any appearance of political interference with the Fed or its activities,’ he said.

Powell contended that the investigation was not related to testimony he gave before the Senate Banking Committee last year regarding the $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s headquarters in Washington, D.C., but rather a consequence of the Federal Reserve ‘setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president.’ 

Thune also acknowledged that Tillis’ hold on Fed nominees would make things difficult moving forward as the investigation plays out, given that Powell’s term atop the central bank expires in May. 

He said that it would be good to ensure continuity at the Fed, and ‘that the central bank maintains its independence.’ 

‘I mean, they’ve got a couple of key missions when it comes to the economy, particularly dealing with inflation, which obviously is impacted by interest rate policy,’ Thune said. ‘And so I want to see them operate in an independent way, free of politics.’

Meanwhile, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., railed against the investigation and called the allegations fueling it ‘clearly bogus.’ 

‘Anyone with two eyes and half a brain knows exactly what this criminal probe represents: a brazen attempt by Donald Trump to cannibalize the Fed’s independence,’ he said.

A top House lawmaker and former softball coach is arguing that allowing transgender women who were born male to play on female sports teams is ‘the biggest form of bullying.’

House GOP Conference Chairwoman Lisa McClain, R-Mich., is expected to appear at a rally in support of banning biological males from playing on school sports teams for girls and women on Tuesday.

It’s the same day the Supreme Court is expected to hear oral arguments on the legality of such bans in two states, cases that could have ramifications for school sports across the country.

The cases, challenging state laws by GOP-led governments in Idaho and West Virginia, will decide whether discrimination based on gender identity violates federal civil rights laws.

But McClain, who spent almost a decade coaching girls’ softball, said it was not an issue of left or right.

‘This isn’t a conservative-progressive [issue]. You can’t put a label on it. The label is female versus male. Those are the labels you should be talking about,’ McClain said. ‘It’s, does this Supreme Court recognize females?’

As a business owner before Congress, McClain said she also coached her daughter and other girls, starting when her child was 9 through high school.

She said there would have been ‘intense conversations’ if her team had to face another with a transgender player.

‘I’ll just share with you, it wouldn’t happen,’ she said of the hypothetical face-off.

‘You want to talk about fairness and all that stuff. I’ll compete with any female athlete, any female athlete. Don’t have a guy pretending to be a woman come in, undress in the locker room in front of my daughter or any of the girls that are on my team. Are you kidding me?’

LGBTQ advocates have said a Supreme Court ruling in favor of the state governments would be a step back for transgender rights.

But people who support the bans, like McClain, have said it’s a fight for women’s rights.

‘Where all these feminists that fought so hard for women, for women’s rights, for Title IX?’ she asked. 

‘This is an attack on women. So you can stand with the transgenders, that’s fine. You can be who you want to be, be transgender, if that’s who you want to be. But when who you are decides to infringe on my rights, that’s when I have a problem.’

Australia’s ambassador to the U.S. who criticized President Donald Trump is leaving his post early. The announcement comes just a few weeks after the U.S. president made a cutting remark about the diplomat.

‘It is with deep appreciation for his tireless contribution to our national interests over the last three years in Washington that we today announce the Hon Dr. Kevin Rudd AC will conclude his posting as Australia’s Ambassador to the United States at the end of March 2026,’ a joint statement issued by Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese MP and Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs Penny Wong read.

In their statement, Albanese and Wong seemed to defend the work that the Hon. Dr. Kevin Rudd AC had done in his position. In what could be seen as a swipe at the Trump administration, the two said that Rudd ‘delivered concrete outcomes for Australia – during both Democrat and Republican Administrations – in collaboration with our closest ally and principal strategic partner.’ 

They also highlighted his knowledge of U.S.-China relations, which is particularly relevant as he takes the helm of the Asia Society, a nonprofit headquartered in New York, which aims to foster relationships between the U.S. and Asia.

Rudd, who previously served as Australia’s prime minister, thanked Albanese and Wong for their ‘kind remarks’ ahead of his departure and gave some insight into his new role.

‘I will be remaining in America working between New York and Washington on the future of U.S.-China relations, which I have always believed to be the core question for the future stability of our region and the world,’ Rudd wrote in an X post from his unofficial account.

On his official X account, Rudd said that ‘It has been an honor to serve as Australia’s Ambassador to the United States over the last three years. I thank the Prime Minister and the Foreign Minister for their kind remarks today.’

Rudd is no stranger to Asia Society, as he served as the organization’s president and CEO 2021-2023. He was also the inaugural President of the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) for nearly 10 years, holding the position from 2015 until 2023. Now, he is set to serve as the president and CEO of the organization and will hold a leading role in the ASPI’s Center for China Analysis, which he established in 2022, according to Asia Society.

In October, when Albanese visited the U.S., Trump was asked about Rudd’s remarks, with one reporter wondering if the comments were the reason why the meeting in Washington was so late in the year. Trump said that he did not know what the ambassador had said before asking Albanese if Rudd was still working for him. In response, Albanese pointed at Rudd who seemed to stumble as he tried to explain the remarks he made, first clarifying that he said them before he took the position as ambassador to the U.S. However, Trump quickly cut him off, saying, ‘I don’t like you either. I don’t and I probably never will.’

Rudd made headlines in November 2024 when he deleted a series of tweets that were critical of Trump after the U.S. president won his second term. Rudd had described Trump in a 2020 post as ‘the most destructive president in history,’ according to reporting from NDTV. Rudd made the comments while serving as the chair of the ASPI. Rudd’s office said that the posts were deleted to prevent others from taking them as remarks made in his capacity as ambassador

‘This has been done to eliminate the possibility of such comments being misconstrued as reflecting his positions as ambassador and, by extension, the views of the Australian Government. Ambassador Rudd looks forward to working with President Trump and his team to continue strengthening the US-Australia alliance,’ a statement from Rudd’s office that was shared with Fox News Digital in November 2024 read.

It is not immediately clear whether these past remarks played a role in Rudd’s departure. However, a Trump administration official told Fox News Digital that Rudd ‘worked well with President Trump and the administration.’ The official added that ‘We wish him well.’

Fox News Digital reached out to Rudd and the White House for comment.

As Iran weakens, a power vacuum is emerging across the Middle East — and Saudi Arabia is moving to fill it by recalibrating relations with former rivals, hedging global partnerships and asserting a more independent foreign policy, according to several experts.

Javed Ali, former senior official at the National Security Council and professor at the University of Michigan, told Fox News Digital that ‘Since Iran’s 1979 revolution, both Saudi Arabia and Iran have vied for influence across the broader Muslim world. Mohammed bin Salman’s consolidation of power in the kingdom has also introduced a markedly different vision from that of his predecessors.’

Riyadh’s recent moves, from Yemen to Turkey, are fueling debate over whether Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s expanding regional role still aligns with U.S. interests. As part of that recalibration, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 9 that Turkey is seeking entry into the Saudi–Pakistan mutual defense pact signed four months earlier, according to people familiar with the talks.

Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said Saudi Arabia’s current trajectory must be viewed through years of accumulated frustration with U.S. policy.

‘To be fair to MBS, previous U.S. administrations did not uphold their end of the bargain either,’ Rubin told Fox News Digital, pointing to repeated Houthi attacks on Saudi territory. ‘The Houthis launched hundreds of drones and rockets that the Obama administration ignored.’

Rubin said tensions deepened as Mohammed bin Salman pursued reforms long urged by U.S. policymakers, only to face sharp criticism from Washington. He cited the Biden administration’s decision to remove the Houthis’ terror designation.

‘By no objective measure should Secretary of State Antony Blinken have removed the terror designation from the Houthis,’ Rubin said, calling the move ‘pure spite directed at MBS and Donald Trump.’

Rubin said that decision marked a turning point. ‘MBS calculated that if the United States did not have his back, he would need to embrace a Plan B,’ he said, describing outreach to Russia and China as tactical signaling rather than ideological realignment.

Saudi geopolitical researcher Salman Al-Ansari rejects claims that Riyadh is drifting ideologically or embracing Islamist movements, framing Saudi policy as interest-driven.

‘Saudi Arabia does not base its foreign policy on ideological alignment, but on pragmatic considerations aimed at stability and development,’ Al-Ansari told Fox News Digital. He said outreach to Turkey reflects an effort to de-escalate rivalries. ‘The rapprochement with Turkey reflects this diplomatic approach, which seeks to transform the Middle East from a region of chronic conflict into one of greater stability.’

Al-Ansari said the shift has already delivered results. ‘This shift has given Riyadh increased flexibility in engaging regional powers, a change Ankara quickly recognized and that has translated into expanding economic cooperation.’

He rejected claims of alignment with the Muslim Brotherhood. ‘Saudi Arabia designated the group as a terrorist organization in 2014, and this position remains unchanged,’ he said.

Those competing interpretations of Saudi intent are now colliding most visibly in Yemen where the Saudi-Emirati alliance originally formed to counter Iran’s Houthi proxy. While both entered the war to roll back Iranian influence, their strategies diverged. Riyadh backs a unified Yemeni state under the internationally recognized government, arguing fragmentation strengthens Iran. The UAE has supported southern separatists, including the Southern Transitional Council, prioritizing control over ports and security corridors.

In the last few days, Saudi and Yemeni government forces have largely recaptured southern and eastern Yemen from the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), and the STC’s leader reportedly fled to the UAE amid the group’s reported dissolution, highlighting a sharp rift involving Emirati support for separatists

Rubin called Yemen the clearest warning sign. ‘This is best seen in Yemen, where he has been supporting the Muslim Brotherhood faction militarily and attacking the more secular Southern Forces in a way that only empowers al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and the Houthis,’ he said.

Al-Ansari countered that ‘differences with the UAE stem from its backing of separatist armed actors in Yemen, which complicates the political process, fragments the anti-Houthi front, and ultimately benefits the Iranian-backed Houthi militia.’

Rubin warned of long-term consequences. ‘By ‘blowback’ I mean the same Islamists MBS cultivates today will end up targeting Saudi Arabia in the future,’ he said.

With Iran weakened and regional power shifting, Washington now faces a central question: whether Saudi Arabia’s expanding role will reinforce U.S.-backed stability, or redefine the balance of power in ways that test the limits of the long-standing partnership.

The U.S. Virtual Embassy Iran is telling American citizens who are still in the country to leave immediately. 

The warning Tuesday comes as more than 600 people have been killed in the ongoing anti-government demonstrations, according to an activist group. The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said 512 of the dead were protesters and 134 were members of Iran’s security forces, The Associated Press reported. 

‘Leave Iran now. Have a plan for departing Iran that does not rely on U.S. government help,’ the U.S. Virtual Embassy Iran said on its website, suggesting land crossings into Armenia or Turkey if it is ‘safe to do so.’ 

‘If you cannot leave, find a secure location within your residence or another safe building. Have a supply of food, water, medications, and other essential items,’ it added.

‘Protests across Iran are escalating and may turn violent, resulting in arrests and injuries. Increased security measures, road closures, public transportation disruptions, and internet blockages are ongoing,’ the embassy also said. ‘The Government of Iran has restricted access to mobile, landline, and national internet networks. Airlines continue to limit or cancel flights to and from Iran, with several suspending service until Friday, January 16.’ 

The protests began late last month with shopkeepers and bazaar merchants demonstrating against accelerating inflation and the collapse of the rial, which lost about half its value against the dollar last year. Inflation topped 40% in December.  

The unrest soon spread to universities and provincial cities, with young men clashing with security forces.   

‘U.S.-Iranian dual nationals must exit Iran on Iranian passports. The Iranian government does not recognize dual nationality and will treat U.S.-Iranian dual nationals solely as Iranian citizens,’ according to the embassy. ‘U.S. nationals are at significant risk of questioning, arrest, and detention in Iran. Showing a U.S. passport or demonstrating connections to the United States can be reason enough for Iranian authorities to detain someone.’

The embassy also said, ‘Turkmenistan’s land borders are open, but U.S. citizens need special authorization from the Government of Turkmenistan before approaching the border,’ and that, ‘U.S. citizens with an urgent need to depart Iran via Azerbaijan should be aware that entry into Azerbaijan from Iran has been restricted for U.S. citizens during periods of heightened tension, such as the June 2025 conflict between Iran and Israel.’ 

‘The U.S. government does not have diplomatic or consular relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran,’ the U.S. Virtual Embassy Iran continued. ‘The Swiss government, acting through its embassy in Tehran, serves as the protecting power for U.S. interests in Iran.’

Prior to the ongoing protests, the State Department issued a ‘Level 4 – Do not travel’ advisory for the Islamic Republic of Iran in December. 

At the time, it urged Americans not to visit the country, ‘due to the risk of terrorism, unrest, kidnapping, arbitrary arrest of U.S. citizens, and wrongful detention. ‘

Fox News’ Efrat Lachter contributed to this report.

As protests spread across Iran and the government responds with lethal force, amid increasing reports claiming thousands have been killed, a growing question is being debated by analysts and Iranians alike: Is the Islamic Republic facing its most serious threat since the 1979 revolution, or does it still retain enough coercive power to survive?

For Mehdi Ghadimi, an Iranian journalist who spent decades protesting the regime before being forced to leave the country, this moment feels fundamentally different from anything that came before.

‘From 1999, when I was about fifteen, until 2024, when I was forced to leave Iran, I took part in every street protest against the Islamic Republic,’ Ghadimi told Fox News Digital. ‘For roughly half of those years, I supported the reformist movement. But after 2010, we became certain that the Islamic Republic is not reformable, that changing its factions is a fiction.’

According to Ghadimi, that realization gradually spread across Iranian society, culminating in what he describes as a decisive shift in the current unrest.

‘For the first time in the 47 years of struggle by the Iranian people against the Islamic Republic, the idea of returning to the period before January 1979 became the sole demand and the central point of unity among the people,’ he said. ‘As a result, we witnessed the most widespread presence of people from all cities and villages of Iran in the streets, on a scale unprecedented in any previous protests.’

Ghadimi claimed the chants on the streets reflected that shift. Instead of demanding economic relief or changes to dress codes, protesters openly called for the fall of the Islamic Republic and the return of the Pahlavi dynasty.

‘At that point, it no longer seemed that we were merely protesting,’ he said. ‘We were, in fact, carrying out a revolution.’

Still, Ghadimi was clear about what he believes is preventing the regime’s collapse.

‘The answer is very clear,’ he said. ‘The government sets no limit for itself when it comes to killing its own people.’

He added that Tehran appears reassured by the lack of consequences for its actions. ‘It has also been reassured by the behavior of other countries that if it manages to survive, it will not be punished for these blatant crimes against humanity,’ he said. ‘The doors of diplomacy will always remain open to them, even if their hands are stained with blood.’

Ghadimi described how the regime cut off internet access to disrupt coordination between protesters and opposition leadership abroad. He said that once connectivity was severed, the reach of video messages from the exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi dropped dramatically.

While Iranian voices describe a revolutionary moment, security and policy experts caution that structural realities still favor the regime.

Javed Ali, an associate professor at the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, said the Islamic Republic is facing far more serious threats to its grip on power than in years past, driven by a convergence of military, regional, economic and diplomatic pressures.

‘The IRGC is in a much weaker position following the 12-day war with Israel last summer,’ Ali said, citing ‘leadership removals, ballistic missile and drone capabilities that were used or damaged, and an air and radar defense network that has been significantly degraded.’

Ali said Iran’s regional deterrence has also eroded sharply. ‘The so-called Axis of Resistance has been significantly weakened across the region,’ he said, pointing to setbacks suffered by Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Shiite militias allied with Tehran.

Internally, Ali said demographic pressure is intensifying the challenge. ‘Iran’s younger population is even more frustrated than before with deteriorating economic conditions, ongoing social and cultural restrictions and repeated violent crackdowns on dissent,’ he said.

Ali also pointed to shifting external dynamics that are limiting Tehran’s room to maneuver, including what he described as a stronger U.S.-Israel relationship tied to the Netanyahu-Trump alliance. He added that there are ‘possible joint operations already underway to support the protest movement inside Iran.’

Israeli security sources, speaking on background, said Israel has no such interest in intervening in a way that would allow Tehran to redirect domestic unrest outward.

‘Everyone understands it is better to sit and wait quietly and not attract the fire toward Israel,’ one source said. ‘The regime would like to make this about Israel and the Zionist enemy and start another war to repress internal protests.’

‘It is not Israel against Iran,’ the source added. ‘We recognize that the regime has an interest in provoking us, and we do not want to contribute to that.’

The source said a collapse of the Islamic Republic would have far-reaching consequences. ‘If the regime falls, it will affect the entire Middle East,’ the official said. ‘It could open a new era.’

Ali said Iran is increasingly isolated diplomatically. ‘There is growing isolation from Gulf monarchies, the fall of Assad in Syria and only muted support from China and Russia,’ he said.

Despite those pressures, Ali cautioned that Iran’s coercive institutions remain loyal.

‘I think the IRGC, including Basiji paramilitary elements, along with the Ministry of Intelligence, are still loyal to the regime out of a mix of ideology, religion, and self-interest,’ he said, citing ‘power, money and influence.’

Whether fear of collapse could drive insiders to defect remains unclear. ‘Whether there are insiders willing to flip because of a sense of imminent collapse of the clerical structure is hard to know,’ Ali said.

He placed the probability of an internal regime collapse at ‘25% or less,’ calling it ‘possible, but far less probable.’

For now, Iran appears caught between two realities: a population increasingly unified around the rejection of the Islamic Republic, and a security apparatus still willing to use overwhelming force to preserve it.

As Ali noted, pressure alone does not bring regimes down. The decisive moment comes only when those ordered to enforce repression decide it is no longer in their interest to do so.

Despite the scale of unrest, Ghadimi cautioned that the outcome remains uncertain.

‘After these four hellish days, without even knowing the fate of our friends and loved ones who went into the streets, or whether they were alive or not, it is truly difficult for me to give you a clear assessment and say whether our revolution is now moving toward victory or not,’ he said.

He recalled a message he heard repeatedly before leaving Iran, across cities and social classes.

‘The only thing I consistently heard was this: ‘We have nothing left to lose, and even at the cost of our lives, we will not retreat one step from our demand for the fall of the Islamic Republic,’’ Ghadimi said. ‘They asked me to promise that now that I am outside Iran, I would be their voice.’

‘That spirit is what still gives my heart hope for victory,’ he added. ‘But my mind tells me that when mass killing carries no punishment, and when the government possesses enough bullets, guns and determination to suppress it, even if it means killing millions, then victory would require a miracle.’