How do you find the next big stock before it gains the investing public’s attention?

It’s tricky, but there are only two ways to spot a so-called “hot stock” before the social buzz. One is to scour financial reports and forum chatter to see what Wall Street insiders might be looking at before the general public catches. Another is to use various scans to trace the smart money’s tracks before the news gets out.

Alternatively, you could do both.

(As far as the latter—scanning for stocks exhibiting technical strength—perhaps it’s something you should be doing daily, as you have plenty of tools to scan every sector and stock on the market rapidly.)

Tuesday’s Scan After the Close

On Tuesday, I did an after-market scan to prepare for the following day’s trading session. Pulling up the StockCharts Sample Scan Library from the Charts & Tools menu, I ran a scan for New 52-week Highs and categorized the Symbols by the StockChartsTechnicalRank (SCTR) score.

FIGURE 1. NEW 52-WEEK HIGHS SCAN RESULTS. AppLovin is at the top when sorted by SCTR scores.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The mobile marketing tech company AppLovin (APP) had the highest SCTR score and a new 52-week high. I realized that APP was also on the SCTR Top 10 report, which is visible on the SCTR Reports Dashboard panel.

FIGURE 2. SCTR REPORT TOP 10 LIST. APP been on this list for a while but its move to the top position is worth noting.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If you’ve been following the SCTR Reports from time to time, you might have noticed that APP has been occupying the top 10 list for quite some time. APP, though not the most popular stock (perhaps until now), has been abuzz among institutional and tech investors for quite some time. It makes you wonder what other scans APP might have shown up on.

In the Symbol Summary tool, here’s what came up Tuesday afternoon.

FIGURE 3. LIST OF SCANS ON SYMBOL SUMMARY THAT INCLUDED APP. It’s time to do a deeper dive.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

At the least, APP’s appearance on several scans tells you it’s time to do a deeper top-down dive on the stock. Let’s start with a weekly chart to get a big-picture view of APP’s price history.

FIGURE 4. WEEKLY CHART OF APP. The stock price had a parabolic upside move.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

That’s a jaw-dropping 1,303% jump (see percent line measurement in the chart). And it begs two questions: Were there early signs to get into the stock when APP was just at $30, and is it now just a FOMO trade, or is there still room for growth?

Starting with the first question, the earliest technical indication was in May 2023 (see blue dotted vertical line) when two things coincided (green circles highlight each event):

• The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) broke through the zero line, indicating that buyers controlled the market.
• The SCTR line shot up to around 99, well above the bullish 90 line.

At this point, you’re probably wondering if there’s still room for APP valuations to grow or if it’s now just a FOMO trade. Here, we’ll shift to a daily chart of APP to take a closer look.

FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF APP. There are multiple levels of support for the looming pullback.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

APP’s runaway gap followed a stellar earnings report. The divergence between the CMF and the On Balance Volume (OBV) lines shows a potential decrease in institutional buying (represented by the CMF) versus retail FOMO (using OBV as a proxy). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is clearly in overbought territory, but APP’s price action also shows how the RSI can sustain extreme levels for an extended period of time.

In the daily chart, three indicators show potential convergence at support levels. The Ichimoku Cloud provides a dynamic support range that shifts with price action, aligning with the quadrant lines, especially the third quadrant just below the 50% retracement. Keep in mind that the second and third quadrants typically signal bullish levels during a pullback. Lastly, notice the Bollinger Bands, where the middle band also falls within the third quadrant.

If APP starts pulling back, as it seems likely, and you’re bullish on the stock, watch these levels closely. How the price reacts at these points can guide you in making a more informed decision about when to take action.

At the Close

The steps to spotting a potential breakout stock like AppLovin highlight the importance of analysis using differentiated tools to uncover hidden opportunities. From initial scans to spot technical strength to deep dives using SCTR rankings and Symbol Summary insights, the journey of discovery relies on methodical steps. Whether you’re looking to catch the next big move or planning entry points during a pullback, the takeaway is clear: consistent, multi-layered scanning and analysis is the key to finding market gems early on.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

After the election, things have hardly settled in the world. New developments in the Ukraine-Russian conflict and the Middle East are still volatile, and the worst of all. I am in Redmond, WA, this week, and last night’s storm caused a massive power outage in this region.

Needless to say, producing electronic content is a challenge at the moment 😉

But I found a small pocket where things seem to operate decently, so I’ll give it a try.

When market conditions become cloudy, I always like to step back and zoom out to see the big picture.

Weekly Asset Class Rotation

Using Relative Rotation Graphs, I do that, bringing up an RRG for Asset Classes as plotted at the top of this article.

This is a weekly RRG, and the rotations seem pretty straightforward.

Note: I have left out BTC as it is powering way up into the leading quadrant and living a life of its own.

Stocks are the only asset class inside the leading quadrant, and they are on a decent RRG-Heading, suggesting that more relative strength lies ahead.

On the opposite trajectory, we find the three fixed-income-related asset classes in this universe: government bonds, Corporate bonds, and High-Yield bonds. All three travel on a South Western heading and move deeper into the lagging quadrant. This suggests further relative weakness for this group in the coming weeks.

We find commodity ETFs and the Dollar Index inside the improving quadrant.

DJP and GSG are in the improving quadrant while still in the middle of their respective trading ranges, both in price and relative.

The Dollar index, on the other hand, is interesting. It has reached the top of a broad trading range after a significant rally that started at the bottom of that range back in September and is now pushing against heavy overhead resistance.

Zooming in on the daily time frame

Things are getting more interesting when I zoom in on the daily time frame. This RRG is plotted above.

A few observations in combination with the rotations as seen on the weekly version.

In the daily time frame, stocks also head deeper into the leading quadrant on a strong RRG heading. This happens after a leading-weakening-leading rotation, which means it is a reasonably reliable start for a new up-leg in the already established relative uptrend.

Conversely, the fixed-income asset classes confirm their weaker rotation back into the lagging quadrant after a lagging-improving-lagging rotation.

Overall, the preference for stocks over bonds is firmly shown based on RRG.

Commodities are heading further into the lagging quadrant on this daily RRG, which tells me that the positive rotation on a weekly basis might be slowing down soon.

$USD close to breaking from broad range

This leaves $USD with an interesting rotation. The long tail traveling upward inside the improving quadrant on the weekly is getting support from the leading-weakening-leading rotation that is developing on the daily RRG.

On the price chart, $USD is very close to overhead resistance, and with its current strength, there is a fair chance of breaking it upward. When that happens, $USD looks set for a strong follow-through that could reach the levels of the previous highs around 114.

This target can be calculated by adding the range’s height, around 7 points, to the breakout level, around 107.

Stocks vs Bonds

SPY continues to make higher highs and lower lows, confirming its uptrend even though negative divergence is still present and weaker breadth data (not shown here). However, at the end of the day, you can only trade SPY.

There was a nice rally in bonds, pushing yields down, but the decline of the 23.50 highs seems to be breaking the rising trendline.

The primary relative trend for GOVT vs. VBINX has been down for a long time, and the recent uptick seems to have ended, once again with a high for the JdK RS-Ratio line below 100, resulting in another lagging-improving-lagging rotation, the fifth since late 2022.

So far, the rise in yields has not been damaging to stocks, and as a result, the stock-bond ratio has again accelerated in favor of stocks.

Overall, the preference for stocks over bonds continues while $USD seems to be setting up for a perfect rally!!

#StayAlert –Julius

In this exclusive StockCharts video, Joe goes into detail on the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), sharing why using MACD and ADX together can be beneficial — especially in the current environment. He touches on Sentiment, Volatility and Momentum, pointing to reasons why we need to be on alert at this time for signs of a downturn. Joe covers the QQQ and IWM since both are at critical levels right now. Finally, he goes through the symbol requests that came through this week, including AMZN, CVNA, and more.

This video was originally published on November 20, 2024. Click this link to watch on StockCharts TV.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

Institutional investors tend to focus heavily on relative strength, as this is essentially how they are evaluated in their performance as money managers!  Let’s review three ways to analyze relative strength, what these charts are telling us about sector rotation as we progress through Q4.

Relative Strength Trends Show Clear Winners in Q4

I like to group the 11 S&P 500 sectors into three important buckets based on their general tendencies: growth sectors, value sectors, and defensive sectors.  Let’s focus in on the relative performance of the value sectors, with each line representing the ratio of the sector ETF vs. the S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

Two of these four sectors stand out as strengthening in the month of November, specifically the financial and energy sectors.  Both of these sectors are expected to benefit from a Trump administration, with banks facing less regulatory pressure and also a steepening yield curve.  For energy, it’s the assumption that with less support for renewable energy policies, oil and gas companies could stand to thrive going forward.

As my friend and fellow StockCharts commentator Tom Bowley once explained, “If you want to outperform the S&P 500, you need to own things that are outperforming the S&P 500.”  So by focusing on sectors that are showing stronger relative strength, we have the opportunity to outperform our passive benchmarks.

Offense vs. Defense Ratio Still Favoring Offense

I also love to use ratio analysis to compare sectors to each other, as we can then start to infer what big institutions are doing with their capital as they rotate between the 11 economic sectors.  Let’s look at one of my favorite ratios which I call the “offense vs. defense” ratio.

The top panel is the ratio of Consumer Discretionary (XLY) versus Consumer Staples (XLP), while the bottom panel uses equal-weighted ETFs for those same sectors (RSPD and RSPS).  This analysis was inspired from conversations years ago with Bill Doane, my Fidelity predecessor who ran the Technical Research team in the 1970s.  We are basically comparing “things you want” vs. “things you need”, with the idea that when conditions are good, consumers tend to spend more money on discretionary purchases.

We can see in this chart that offense is outperforming defense fairly consistently since early August.  And if there’s one thing I’ve learned in 24 years of analyzing charts, it’s to assume that a trend is continuing until it doesn’t!  So this chart certainly suggests broad market strength going into year-end 2024.

Relative Rotation Graph Indicates Resurgence in Key Sectors

No discussion of sector rotation would be complete without a nod to the GOAT of visualizing sector rotation, Julius de Kempenaer.  His RRG charts have been an essential part of my toolkit for many years, and I’m thrilled that we now have an upgraded version on the StockCharts platform with which to continue our analysis.

I’ve highlighted the two consumer sectors, which we can see support our earlier comments on offense over defense.  The XLY is trending up and to the right in the Leading quadrant, and the XLP is moving down and to the left within the Lagging quadrant.  

I’ve also selected one other comparison, which is one I’ll be watching closely as we head into 2025.  Technology, driven by the strength of software and semiconductors, is currently in the Improving quadrant.  Utilities, which has traditionally been considered as a defensive sector, sits in the Weakening quadrant.  

If and when these relative trends would begin to reverse, that could indicate more defensive positioning than we’ve seen at all in 2024.  But until and unless we see that sort of defensive rotation, my sector analysis tells me this market is poised for further strength.

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

There are times when the price action of a stock is worth analyzing further. This article is a follow-up to last week’s StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) Report pick, Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The stock sold off significantly on Monday, and, in the blog post, I mentioned that I would buy PLTR if the stock price pulled back and reversed. I used the 15-day exponential moving average (EMA) as a support level, but was willing to tighten it if necessary.

It just so happened that PLTR sold off on Monday, after which I monitored the stock closely. Monday’s low reached the low of the previous five trading days and bounced from there (blue dashed horizontal line in the chart below). That level aligns with the 10-day EMA. On the daily chart, the last three candlestick bars have relatively large price ranges. The last bar shows more buying pressure. Is PLTR showing signs of moving higher? To answer this question, you need to look at the indicators.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF PALANTIR STOCK. After hitting a high on November 15, PLTR pulled back to the lows of the last few trading days (blue dashed line). This aligns with the 10-day exponential moving average.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The SCTR score remains at a high 99.5, indicating the stock is technically strong. Let’s turn to the other conditions for entering a long position in PLTR.

• Volume. The total trading volume is insufficient to convince me the upward price move will be sustained.
• Momentum. The relative strength index (RSI) is weakening, although slightly above 70.
• Overbought/oversold. The full stochastic oscillator remains in overbought territory, although the %K and %D lines have converged and are at similar levels.

On Tuesday, PLTR sold off in early trading along with the rest of the broader indexes. However, once things started to turn around, PLTR’s stock price rose, closing at $62.98. The price action doesn’t confirm a buy as of Tuesday’s close, although that could change tomorrow.

The Game Plan

• If PLTR has upside momentum on Wednesday morning, with high volume, a rising RSI, and the stochastic in overbought territory, I will enter a long position. I’d use the support of the 10-day EMA as a stop loss level and exit the position if price crosses below the EMA.
• If price doesn’t move much on Wednesday, I’d wait patiently for the opportune entry point.
• If price shows downside movement (i.e. PLTR closes below the 10-day EMA or horizontal dashed blue line, the RSI and stochastic turn lower), I’d keep PLTR in my ChartList but revisit it later. Given that it is an AI-related stock that is actively traded, it’s not worth dismissing the stock.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this video, Dave outlines three tools he uses on the StockCharts platform to analyze sector rotation, from sector relative strength ratios to the powerful Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG). Dave shares how institutional investors think about sector rotation strategies, evaluating the current evidence to determine how money managers are allocating between offensive and defensive sectors following the US elections.

This video originally premiered on November 19, 2024. Watch on our dedicated David Keller page on StockCharts TV!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

Even though the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) have many similarities, there are some big differences in their component weightings and performance. Namely, SMH allows more concentration than SOXX and SMH is holding up better than SOXX. SOXX already broke down on the price chart and SMH is at a critical juncture as its biggest component reports earnings this week.

SOXX) and SMH are the two largest semiconductor ETFs by AUM (assets under management). However, as I learned from this video at nAnalyze, their weighing rules are very different. In particular, SOXX caps the weighting of the top five stocks at 8% each and rebalances. SMH, on the other hand, caps the weight of the top three at 20% each and then rebalances. This higher threshold allows more room for a momentum run. It is little surprise that the top three holdings in SMH are Nvidia (23.66%), Taiwan Semiconductor (13.2%) and Broadcom (7.71%). The top three holding for SOXX are Nvidia (10.12%), Broadcom (8.77%) and Advanced Micro Devices (8%).

The PerfChart below shows the one-month percentage change for ten semiconductor stocks. It is a mixed bag with four up and six down. Nvidia (red bar) is up 1.5%, two are down double digits (AMD and Micron) and only one is up double digits (Marvell). Short-term, it has been a rough ride for the group.

The next chart shows SOXX breaking wedge support and its 200-day SMA with a sharp decline on October 31st. SOXX rebounded back into the wedge with a three-day election bounce and then fell below its late October low. This means the wedge break is in play with the first target zone in the 195 area. A close above 235 would call for a re-evaluation.  The indicator window shows relative performance using the  SOXX/RSP ratio  (SOXX divided by the S&P 500 EW ETF (RSP)). This ratio has been below its 200-day SMA since late August, which means SOXX has been underperforming for around three months.

What is the significance of a rising wedge? A rising wedge is a bearish continuation pattern that marks a counter-trend bounce after a trend-changing decline. SOXX fell around 25% from mid July to early August and then retraced around 61.8% with the rising wedge to 240. Both the pattern and the retracement amount are typical for counter-trend bounces. The wedge break in October reversed the medium-term uptrend and signaled a continuation of the July-August decline. A 25% decline from the wedge high would target a move to the 180 area.

Click here to learn more about TrendInvestorPro and get two bonus reports!

The next chart shows SMH with a rising wedge, but the ETF has yet to break the October low (235) or the 200-day SMA. SMH did break the lower line of the wedge with a decline last week. Also notice that SMH is trading below the level it was trading at before the election. SMH is at a make or break level with Nvidia (NVDA) set to report earnings on Wednesday after the close. SMH stays bullish as long as 235 holds. A break would confirm the wedge and target a move to the 200 area.  

Stay on the right side of the trend with our weekly reports and videos. Our robust top-down approach started with broad market analysis to set the overall tone. We then drill to down to find ETFs and stocks with bullish setups within long-term uptrends.

Highlights from Recent Weekly Reports/Videos:

• S&P 500 breadth remains strong and Nasdaq 100 breadth remains strong enough, but Nasdaq 100 is lagging because a third of its stocks are in long-term downtrends.
• Fintech, Cybersecurity, Software and Cloud Computer ETFs were leading before the election surge and became very extended with the election surge. Time for some patience.
• The Gold ETF became oversold for the first time this year.
• Copper, Base Metals and Copper Miners failed hold their breakouts as they got hit post election.
• The 10-yr Treasury Yield is on the rise as TLT moves sharply lower. What is the market telling us?

Click here to learn more and get two bonus reports!

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Join Tony as he walks you through a Macro Market outlook, where he shares his top bearish and bullish options trading ideas, These include Disney (DIS), Shopify (SHOP), Intel (INTC), Adobe (ADBE), and Apple (AAPL). He explores growth vs. value, current sector rotation, key earnings, and more.

This video premiered on November 18, 2024.

When looking for stocks to invest in, spotting strong stocks in promising sectors poised to bounce can be tricky and complicated. You have to forecast a sector’s likely position in the coming months, find stocks within those sectors that are relatively strong, and then dentify which ones are declining and which are near a bullish reversal.

Rather than following each stock individually to check if it meets the criteria, you can get a big-picture view with fewer steps using this tip for StockCharts’ highly useful MarketCarpets tool.

The first step is to analyze each sector, which you’ve hopefully included as part of your ChartLists. If you don’t have an S&P Sectors ChartList, it’s time to create one. If you read my article last week, you’d know that the strongest month for the Communications Services sector (using XLC as our proxy) is January. Right now, the sector is starting to pull back, yet XLC’s StockChartsTechnicalRank (SCTR) stands at 94, above the ultra-bullish 90 range.

You can also confirm this by opening up your MarketCarpets, selecting S&P Sector ETFs in the Select Group menu, selecting Bollinger Band Position in the Measurements menu, and selecting Latest Value in the Color By menu.

FIGURE 1 MARKETCARPETS CHART OF SECTOR ETFS. Notice that XLC is between +100 and -100, meaning it’s above the middle Bollinger Band.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The Bollinger Band Position tells you where the stock is within the indicator:

• If the stock is near the top line, it’s close to +100.
• If it’s near the bottom line, it’s closer to -100.
• If it’s around the middle line (the average), it’s near 0.

XLC, the Communications sector proxy, is above the middle band and declining. So, why choose XLC over other sectors that are also declining but likely to bounce? Because XLC has an SCTR score of 94, and its seasonality profile is more favorable than the others.

FIGURE 2. SEASONALITY CHART OF XLC. January is a strong month for XLC and tends to outperform the S&P 500.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The sector tends to decline in November but rises in December and January, its strongest seasonal month relative to the S&P 500.

Now go back to MarketCarpets and, under the Select Group menu, click on the Communications Sector.

FIGURE 3. MARKETCARPETS CHART OF THE COMMUNICATIONS SECTOR. Quite a mixed bag of stocks spread all over the upper and bottom bands.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Remember the objective of this particular stage: You’re looking for strong stocks near the middle Bollinger band.

Now that you can see where each stock is positioned relative to the middle band, you’ll want to check their SCTR scores and overall momentum on a daily chart. Review each stock that meets the criteria and catches your interest.

This morning, I found DoorDash (DASH), part of the Internet industry group, to be particularly interesting. It currently has a Bollinger Band Position of 53%. While DoorDash may not be the flashiest stock on Wall Street, it plays a key role in helping families by providing meal delivery when they’re short on time. Take a look at a daily chart of DoorDash below.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF DASH. The stock may be bound for a pullback. However, it also displays more buying pressure than its other sector peers.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If you go through the list of stocks in the previous MarketCarpets chart, you’ll find that many of the bigger names either lack buying pressure or display selling pressure based on the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). The CMF may be receding a bit here, and surprisingly, buyers jumped in to scoop up shares of DASH as soon as it began dipping. However, DASH is in overbought territory according to the Money Flow Index (MFI), suggesting that further declines might be possible (unless buyers en masse decide that now’s the time to jump in).

Ideally, the price would fall closer to the middle Bollinger Band, which coincides with the second and third quadrant lines, both levels indicating strength within a pullback (see green rectangle). The bottom quadrant line marks the lowest swing point. If DASH closes below this level, then the current uptrend will no longer be valid.

Closing Bell

Finding the right stocks is all about following a structured process. By combining MarketCarpets with the Bollinger Band Position view, you can get a clearer picture of stocks positioned for a potential bounce. Start with sector analysis and drill down to find the best picks. Not only does this approach save time, it’s one of the few efficient ways to go through this process both quickly and effectively, which is a key advantage in a rapidly changing market.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Today we explore the bullish sentiment that has taken SPX valuations to the moon. There are many out there that believe we have hit a plateau on prices that will continue permanently. We talk about the quote: “Stock prices have reached ‘what looks like a permanently high plateau,’ Irving Fisher, Yale economist, told members of the Purchasing Agents Association at its monthly dinner meeting…” When did this quote come out? Carl reviews our earnings chart.

Carl looks at our signal tables to get a sense of the condition of the market. Then he discusses his outlook for the market as well as covering Bitcoin, Yields, Bonds, Gold, the Dollar, among others.

After covering the market, Carl analyzes the short- and intermediate-term charts of the Magnificent Seven. NVDA reports earnings on November 18th.

Carl takes some time to look at Real Estate (XLRE) “under the hood” and discusses its nearing Dark Cross Neutral Signal that is on tap.

Erin covers sector rotation, comparing defensive sectors to aggressive sectors. She looks under the hood at Utilities which is a sector that is showing new momentum among the sectors. With a possible market decline continuing, this defensive area of the market could find favor and continue higher.

The pair finish with looking at viewer symbol requests with an eye toward the intermediate term today.

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01:03 “…a permanently high plateau”?

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23:12 Questions

28:06 Sector Rotation

40:06 Symbol Requests

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Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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