After six weeks of consolidation and trading in a defined range, the markets finally broke out from this formation and ended the week with gains. Over the past five sessions, the markets have largely traded with a positive undercurrent, continuing to edge higher. The trading range was wider than anticipated; the Nifty traded in an 829-point range over the past few days. Volatility took a backseat; the India Vix slumped by 9.40% to 12.39 on a weekly basis. While trending higher throughout the week, the headline index closed with a net weekly gain of 525.40 points (2.09%).

The breakout that occurred in the previous week has pushed the support level higher for the Index. Now, the most immediate support level has been dragged higher to the 25100-25150 zone, the one that the markets penetrated to move higher. So long as the Nifty keeps its head above this zone, it is likely to continue moving higher. Over the coming weeks, we are also likely to see a distinct shift in the leadership, with the sectors that were in the bottoming-out process taking the lead. This would also mean that one must now focus on taking profits in the spaces that have run up much harder over the past week. While protecting gains, it would be wise to shift focus to the sectors that are likely to see much improved relative strength going forward from here.

The levels of 25750 and 26000 are likely to act as potential resistance levels for the coming week. The supports come in at the 25,300 and 25,000 levels. The trading range is likely to stay wider than usual.

The weekly RSI is 64.58; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and remains above its signal line. A large white candle emerged, indicating the directional strength that the markets exhibited throughout the week.

The pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows that the Nifty initially crossed above the rising trendline pattern resistance. This trendline began from the low of 21150 and joined the subsequent rising bottoms. However, the Nifty consolidated above the breakout point for six weeks before finally resuming its move higher. The Index has pushed its resistance levels higher; as long as the Index stays above the 25000 level, this breakout will remain valid.

It is also important to note that the Nifty’s Relative Strength (RS) line is attempting to reverse its trajectory. This may lead to the frontline index improving its relative performance against the broader markets. Along with this shift in relative strength, it is also strongly recommended that one consider protecting gains in sectors that have risen significantly over the past several weeks. The leadership over the coming weeks is likely to change, making rotating sectors even more important than before. While protecting gains, new purchases must be initiated in sectors that are showing improvement in momentum and relative strength. While some consolidation cannot be ruled out, a positive outlook is suggested for the coming week.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks. 

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that only two sector Indices, Nifty Midcap 100 and the Nifty PSU Bank Index, are inside the leading quadrant. While the Midcap Index continues to rotate strongly, the PSU Bank Index is seen giving up on its relative momentum. These two groups are likely to outperform the broader markets relatively.

The Nifty PSE Index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant. This may result in the sector slowing down on its relative performance. The Nifty Commodities, Financial Services, Infrastructure, Banknifty, and the Services Sector Index are also inside the weakening quadrant.

The Nifty Consumption Index has rolled into the lagging quadrant. The FMCG Index and the Pharma Index also continue to languish inside this quadrant. The Nifty Metal Index is also located within the lagging quadrant; however, it is sharply improving its relative momentum compared to the broader markets.

The Nifty Realty, Media, IT, Auto, and Energy Indices are located within the leading quadrant. These groups are likely to assume leadership over the coming weeks as they continue to improve their relative momentum and strength compared to the broader Nifty 500 Index.

Important Note: RRG™ charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

As we head into the second half of 2025, here are three stocks that present strong technical setups with favorable risk/reward profiles. One is the largest market cap stock we’re familiar with, which bodes well for the market in general. The second is an old tech giant that’s making a comeback. The third is a beaten-down S&P 500 name that may be ready to rally.

Let’s dive into these three stocks.

NVIDIA (NVDA) is Leading the Market

Nvidia (NVDA) shares have finally broken out and closed above $150, a level we’ve been closely watching. With price action above that resistance threshold, NVDA’s stock price has room to run.

DeepSeek and tariff concerns seem to be in the rearview mirror. The fundamental positives are continued earnings growth, continued large tech cap-ex spend, and, more recently, Jensen Huang’s unveiling of a cute robot he feels could be the next big thing.

Technically, this move has legs, and we have the patterns and history to show for it. The risk/reward set-up is now quite favorable. Let’s break it down.

Over the last five years, there have been periods of consolidation (green boxes) and then significant breakouts to the upside. In all cases, shares became overbought according to the relative strength index (RSI). But overbought doesn’t mean NVDA’s stock price will reverse. During uptrends, overbought conditions can last for quite some time, as they did after the prior two significant breakouts.

With the official breakout above $150 and RSI again reading over 70, history suggests an extended rally is in the cards. A gain of 25–30% from current levels and a run to $200 is likely.

The downside risk is to the $150 level, from which shares just broke out. If this move is just a head fake, then use that level as a stop to limit your losses. This risk/reward set-up is why we believe this is one to own for the back half of 2025.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) Finds New Life

Old-timers like me may remember what a high flyer Cisco Systems (CSCO) once was. It’s been a member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) since June 2009, and shares have struggled to sustain any upward momentum until lately.

Fundamentally, the company continued to grow through acquisition. Now, those deals are starting to help their bottom line, namely the $28 billion acquisition of Splunk that closed in 2024. 

Technically — and that’s what we care about on the StockCharts platform — we can have some fun.

Below is a 30-year chart going back to the dot-com boom. Cisco was one of Wall Street’s darlings and climbed astronomically before falling from the skies. It has struggled to revisit those levels, but that could change soon. 

Switching to a smaller time frame — a three-year weekly chart (see below) — we are seeing great set-ups as we head into the back half of 2025.

CSCO’s stock price consolidated between $43 and $55 for 15 months and broke out in late 2024. Shares rallied and then pulled back to old resistance (now support) at $55 and began their climb back.

Now shares are breaking out again. An upside target of $82, the all-time high set back during the dot-com era, is within reach and may just get there by year-end. The risk/reward seems favorable and, given the run in tech and cyber stocks which CSCO represents, the momentum is there to reach those highs.

Generac’s Power Play

Welcome to hurricane season! It lasts from June 1st to November 30. Generac (GNRC), a leader in home backup power, tends to perform well during weather extremes. It isn’t always the primary catalyst for rallies over the long term in the stock, but it can spur short-term rallies.

Last week, as much of the country was in the middle of a heat wave, GNRC had the best week of gains since November 2024, rallying nearly 12%. The trend change seems to be underway. Shares are lower by -8.1% year-to-date, and there’s room to run.

However, the charts are showing signs of life. Let’s keep this one as simple as possible.

The stock broke its longer-term downtrend (red line)

Shares have made a consistent set of higher lows (green uptrend)

Shares recaptured their 50-day moving average

Shares consolidated in an ascending triangle and broke out

Shares tested and failed to recapture their 200-day moving average

Progress is being made. The trend has changed, there’s something to reverse, and seasonal factors and reduced tariff concerns are a true tailwind.

Shares could easily pull back — a flag, if you will — to the $135 area, but should be a great entry point from a risk/reward perspective. Overall, shares are poised to continue reversing that longer-term downtrend, and could be a good addition to the portfolio for the end of 2025.

The Bottom Line

Each of these stocks offers a viable investment strategy with favorable risk-to-reward ratios. If you’re going to enter a position, use clearly-defined stop levels to manage your risks.

If you’ve looked at enough charts over time, you start to recognize classic patterns that often appear.  From head and shoulders tops to cup and handle patterns, they almost jump off the page when you bring up the chart.  I would definitely include Fibonacci Retracements on that list, because before I ever bring up the Fibonacci tool on StockCharts, I’m pretty confident the levels are going to line up well with the price action.

Today we’re going to look at a breakout name that shows why Fibonacci Retracements can be so valuable for confirming upside potential.  We’ll also explain some best practices for identifying the most important price levels to use when setting up a Fibonacci framework.  Finally, we’ll show how Fibonacci analysis could have helped you validate the current uptrend phase for the S&P 500 index.

Confirming Breakouts: Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH)

I started dropping quite a few Fibonacci Retracements on price charts soon after the April 7, 2025 market low.  As stocks experienced a sudden and severe bounce off those lows, it became clear that we would need some way to validate a potential upside swing.  That helped me zero in on the $20 level for Norwegian (NCLH), a level which was finally eclipsed this week.

Using the January high and the April low, we can see a 38.2% Fibonacci level come in right around $20.  A gap higher in mid-May took NCLH close to that level, which was then retested again in early June.  After bouncing off the 50-day moving average last week, Norwegian finally pushed above this first Fibonacci resistance level with Friday’s rally.

One of the ways we can differentiate between a “dead cat bounce” off a major low and the beginning of a much larger recovery phase is to key in on the first Fibonacci retracement level.  If the price can push above this initial upside target, ideally on heavier than normal volume, then the chances of further upside are significantly increased.

In the case of NCLH, we can now bump up a price target to further Fibonacci levels.  The 50% line, just below $20, lines up fairly well with the 200-day moving average.  The 61.8% comes in right around $23.50, which represents my next upside target assuming this week’s strength is confirmed by a follow-through day next week.

Identifying Pullbacks: Raytheon Technologies (RTX)

We can also use Fibonacci Retracements to identify downside targets after a major price peak.  In the case of Raytheon Technologies (RTX), that means we use the April low and the high from mid-June to generate potential support levels.

In this case, we can see that the Fibonacci retracement levels line up very well with traditional support levels using the price action itself.  The 38.2% level lines up with the mid-June low around $135, which also coordinates with the 50-day moving average.  Beyond that support, the 50% level sits right at the late May low at $131, and the 61.8% level comes in right around the early May support at $126.  

Given an initial pullback from the June peak around $149, I’m seeing strong potential support at the 38.2% level and 50-day moving average around $135.  Now I can use Fibonacci levels to better define my risk vs. reward, showing how much downside action I’d anticipate while still keeping an eye on a return to the previous all-time highs.

Validating Uptrends: The S&P 500 Index ($SPX)

Sometimes Fibonacci Retracements are valuable in that they help validate that an uptrend is progressing with a decent pace.  For the S&P 500 chart, every break of a Fibonacci resistance level has confirmed the strength of the broad market indexes off the April low.

It took only two sessions for the SPX to break above the 38.2% retracement of the February to April downtrend phase.  In fact, the S&P almost reached the 50% level before pulling back to around 5100 in mid-April.  From there, we can see a gap back above the 38.2% level which helped confirm the strength of the new uptrend phase.

I still have the pink trendline on my chart that I remember drawing during the downtrend phase.  “As long as the S&P remains below trendline resistance, the market is in a clear downtrend,” I remember saying out loud on my market recap show.  So when the SPX broke above the 50% level, as well as that clear trendline, I was forced to acknowledge the staying power of this new uptrend phase.

The S&P 500 stalled out at the 61.8% retracement level in early May, but another price gap higher signaled that the final Fibonacci resistance level was no longer going to hold.  And once you eclipse the final Fibonacci level, that implies a full retest back to the 100% point.  

So am I surprised that the S&P 500 has pushed to new all-time highs this week?  Absolutely not.  Indeed, using Fibonacci Retracements on charts like this have helped me admit when a new uptrend is showing strength, and provide plenty of reminders to follow the trend until proven otherwise!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The bears are now left grasping at straws. What about tariffs? What about inflation? What about recession? What about the Fed? What about interest rates? What about the Middle East? What about the deficits? Blah, blah, blah.

When it comes to the media, you need to bury your head in the sand. Actually, take your head out of the sand and bury it in the charts. That’s where you’ll find the truth.

I said all-time highs were coming back at the April low and here we are. The S&P 500 has set a new all-time record high today and, barring a significant afternoon decline, will set its all-time closing high above the previous closing high of 6144, which was set on February 19, 2025. This new high comes just as we begin to prepare for Q2 earnings season. The run up to earnings season is generally and historically quite strong, so get ready for more highs ahead.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has produced annualized returns of nearly 27% during the period June 28th through July 17th. This annualized pre-earnings run is nearly triple the average S&P 500 annual return of 9% since 1950. Care to guess how the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have fared during this bullish pre-earnings period?

• NASDAQ: +38.67%
• Russell 2000 (IWM): +32.61% (bullish period ends July 15th for small caps)

Clearly, the bulls have the historical advantage for the next 3 weeks. Technically, evidence began turning in the bulls’ favor in mid-March, despite the last big move lower in early April. I have the research to back that up and will discuss it at an event on Saturday (more details below). While the stock market was rapidly declining in April, Wall Street was happily stealing everyone’s shares during the panicked selloff.

Technical Strength

Two of the most important industry groups to follow are semiconductors ($DJUSSC) and software ($DJUSSW). These two groups are among the most influential in terms of driving the S&P 500 higher. Check out both of these charts and be sure to check out both the absolute and relative strength currently.

Semiconductors:

Software:

Now I’m going to provide charts of these same two groups, but this time show you how positively they correlate to the S&P 500’s direction over the course of this century.

Semiconductors:

Software:

Honestly, you don’t need a PhD in Economics to understand the above charts. It’s really quite simple. When semiconductors and software are rallying to new highs and showing relative strength, BUY U.S. stocks! They both have extremely tight positive correlation with the S&P 500 and they both look very technically sound right now.

Interest Rate Cut

It’s coming and it’s coming fast! I’m now convinced that the Fed will cut the fed funds rate in a month at their next scheduled meeting on July 29-30. I’m not saying it because I feel the Fed should cut or needs to cut. I’m saying it because there’s a ton of buying right now in the 1-month treasury, sending its yield down. The 1-month treasury yield ($UST1M) typically begins to move BEFORE any Fed action occurs. We saw it back in August/September 2024, just prior to the 50 basis point cut at the September 2024 meeting:

The black directional lines in the bottom panel mark approximately the date that the Fed lowered the fed funds rate. The red directional lines in the top panel highlight the downward movement in the $UST1M PRIOR to the Fed’s lowering roughly a month later. Again, I’m not making this stuff up. The charts are telling me a story here and the current story is that rates are about to come down.

Checkmate bears.

Follow the charts, not the media!

The Game

I’m beginning to believe that capitulation is nothing more than a staged event for the Wall Street elite and we’re the panicked pawns running around with our hair on fire. Those days are over for EarningsBeats.com members. We saw this one coming, just like we saw it coming in 2022. Getting out at the top with the Wall Street elite and getting back in at the bottom before them is an excellent recipe for beating the S&P 500 by a mile!

Learning is the key. We focus on market research, guidance, and education at EarningsBeats.com. Those are our 3 pillars of business. Calling the 2025 market top wasn’t a coincidence. We’ve done it before and we’ll do it again. Jumping back in near the bottom was no coincidence either. Our signals are proven and they work.

On Saturday morning at 10:00am ET, we’re hosting a FREE educational event, “Trading the Truth: How Market Manipulation Creates Opportunity”. I’m going to show everyone the “play-by-play” of how we were able to move to cash BEFORE the market top and back into stocks NEAR the market bottom. Market tops form with many of the same signals each time. To learn more about this event and to register with your name and email address, CLICK HERE.

If you’ve struggled with all the uncertainty in 2025 and haven’t trusted stocks, it’s time that you change your process and strategies. I’ll see you on Saturday!

Happy trading!

Tom

Chartists can improve their odds and increase the number of opportunities by trading short-term bullish setups within bigger trends. The first order of business is to identify the long-term trend using a trend-following indicator. Second, chartist can turn to more granular analysis to find short-term bullish setups. Today’s example will use the Cloud Computing ETF (SKYY).

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TrendInvestorPro monitors a carefully curated ETF ChartList to identify the leading uptrends and find bullish setups within these uptrends. We spotted several flag/pennant breakouts in tech-related ETFs in early June,  and Palladium crossed our radar with a trend-following signal in late June. This week we identified several more bullish continuation patterns. Click here to take a trial and get access to our research.

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Returning to SKYY….First, and foremost, the ETF is in a long-term uptrend. The chart below shows the 5-day SMA and 200-day SMA only (no price plot). A downtrend signaled when the 5-day plunged below the 200-day in late March and early April. This downtrend signal did not last long as the 5-day surged back above the 200-day SMA on May 13th. Whipsaws suck, but they are part of the trend-following process.

The indicator window shows a method to reduce whipsaws – and still ride the big trends. Percent above MA (5,200,1) shows the percentage difference between the 5 and 200 day SMAs. I added signal lines at +3% and -3%, which means the 5-day must be more than 3% above/below the 200-day for a signal. This simple filter greatly reduced whipsaws and still caught the big trends. The red dotted line shows the downtrend from January 2022 to May 2023, while the blue dotted line shows the uptrend from May 2023 to April 2025. This indicator is one of 11 in the TIP Indicator Edge Plugin.

With a long-term uptrend in place and the tech sector leading the market, we can look for bullish setups on the bar chart. The next chart shows SKYY with a breakout surge from early April to mid May and a pair of short-term bullish continuation patterns. First, a pennant formed into early June and SKYY broke out. Second, a small flag formed into late June and SKYY broke out this week.

These breakouts signal a continuation of the April-May surge and target a challenge to the prior highs. A close below the rising 200-day SMA would argue for the first re-evaluation. The charts at TrendInvestorPro extend two years to offer longer term perspectives for the bigger trends and granular analysis for the shorter term setups along the way. The idea is to trade in the direction of the bigger uptrend. Click here to learn more and gain immediate access.

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Take a tour of the FIVE latest updates and additions to our fan-favorite, professionally-curated Market Summary dashboard with Grayson!

In this video, Grayson walks viewers through the new charts and indexes that have been added to multiple panels on the page. These include mini-charts for the S&P sectors, a new index-only put/call ratio, intermarket analysis ratios to compare performance across asset classes, and a massive collection of key economic indexes that you can track like a pro. Plus, Grayson will show you how to install the accompanying Market Summary ChartPack – a pre-built collection of over 30 organized ChartLists designed to enhance your use of the Market Summary dashboard page.

This video originally premiered on June 26, 2025. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.

Over a month ago, Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) appeared on our StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) Top 10 list. SCTRs are an exclusive StockCharts tool that can help you quickly find stocks showing strong technical strength relative to other stocks in a similar category.

Now, the stock market is dynamic, and SMCI, like many stocks, went through a consolidation period with its price trading within a certain range. While SMCI was basically moving sideways, other stocks, such as Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR), Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD), and Roblox Corp. (RBLX), took their turn on the Top 10 SCTR list.

Spotting SMCI’s Potential Turnaround

After over a month of this sideways movement, SMCI is starting to show signs of a breakout. This can often be a sign of renewed strength for a stock to move higher, though there’s no guarantee.

A significant factor behind SMCI’s rise is the strength in AI-related tech stocks, which has given the broader market a big boost. The Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) hit record highs, and other major indexes such as the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) and S&P 500 ($SPX) are just a hair away from hitting their record highs. For as long as this positive trend remains in place, SMCI will likely ride higher with the market.

Let’s break down SMCI’s daily chart.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF SMCI STOCK. SMCI broke out of a trading range and has the potential to rise higher if momentum strengthens. Monitor momentum indicators such as the RSI and PPO.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

SMCI’s SCTR score was at 95.5 after Thursday’s close. The stock is trading comfortably above its 50-day simple moving average, its relative strength index (RSI) is approaching the 70 level, and the percentage price oscillator (PPO) is starting to show encouraging signs of positive momentum (see daily chart below).

Since SMCI has hit a high of $122.90, your initial thought might be that the stock has significant upside potential. It very well could. However, a key part of smart investing is understanding and managing risk. You know very well that any negative news headline is bound to send SMCI tumbling back to its lows; after all, it’s happened before.

Let’s say you spotted this breakout. The ideal approach is to wait for a pullback and a reversal back to the upside with strong follow-through before entering a long position. However, given the stock is moving relatively quickly, you let FOMO get to you and decided to enter a long SMCI position at around $48.

With the stock closing near its high for the day, there is the possibility of a higher move at the open, short of any negative news. But nothing is guaranteed, and you need downside protection for your position. Initially, your stop loss would be the top end of SMCI’s trading range. But what about your upside price targets?

For this, I turned to the weekly chart of SMCI and, using the annotation tool, added Fibonacci retracement levels from the March 2024 high to the November low.

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF SMCI STOCK. Annotating Fibonacci retracement levels from the March 2024 high to the November 2024 low is one way to identify price targets.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Your first price target could be the 38.2% level, which falls just below $60. This aligns with the February high and was an area where the stock price stalled during August 2024 before it continued lower. If SMCI’s stock price hits that level, don’t be surprised if it wavers here. It could continue higher or fall lower depending on investor sentiment toward AI stocks.

Closing Position

Remember, protecting your capital is of utmost importance, regardless of whether the trade goes in your favor or not. Use stops with discipline, since stocks like SMCI can move both up and down quickly. Your objective should be to keep your losses small and let your profits run until the upside momentum dries up.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

MACD, ADX and S&P 500 action frame Joe Rabil’s latest show, where a drifting index push him toward single-stock breakouts. Joe spotlights the daily and weekly charts of American Express, Fortinet, Parker-Hannifin, Pentair, and ServiceNow as showing strong ADX/MACD characteristics. He outlines how the patterns showing on these charts can outshine the broad market until momentum confirms a larger move.

The video premiered on June 25, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its second consecutive 1% gain on Tuesday. That’s three solid 1% advances so far in June. And with a few trading days remaining in the month, the index has recorded only one 1% decline so far.

A lot can still happen before the month ends, but, as it stands, June is looking a lot like May, which also saw three 1% gains and one 1% loss. Taken together, these months resemble May and June of last year, although back then the S&P 500 advanced 52 consecutive sessions without a single 1% decline.

What this means for you: After the volatility of March and April—and the sharp rebound in mid-April—there has been a notable shift toward a more consistent uptrend. We talk about this frequently, and it bears repeating: the characteristics of a steady uptrend are unmistakable. It’s the foundation of our analysis that shapes our market outlook.

FIGURE 1. THE NUMBER OF 1% MOVES IN THE S&P 500 IN 2024 AND 2025. June is looking similar to May, which also saw three 1% gains and one 1% loss. It’s echoing the behavior we saw in May and June of 2024.

It all starts with daily price action. Low two-way volatility has set the tone in recent weeks. If this type of month-to-month tempo in daily moves continues, the uptrend can persist. The opposite, of course, is also true.

Zooming In On the Short-Term Moves

Looking at the S&P 500’s recent price action on the short-term chart, the index is now approximately +3% from its recent low last Friday. If this multi-day bounce were to stop now, it would be among the smallest over the last nine months. Indeed, most didn’t get much further before the next bout of profit taking, but this shows how the staircase-like advance could continue.

In other words, if this cadence persists, the S&P 500 could meander through its former highs, i.e., we may not see a resounding breakout. The more boring a move through 6,147, the better.

FIGURE 2. TWO-HOUR CHART OF THE S&P 500. The staircase-like advance in $SPX could continue, and the index could tiptoe through previous highs.

Also, notice how the recent drawdown only pulled the 14-period relative strength index (RSI) on this two-hour chart marginally below the 50 level, which shows that the momentum shift was limited last week. It’s a reminder of how weak the bounce attempt was in March, which set the stage for the second down leg of that move. If the reverse is now true, then another up leg could be afoot soon.

NVDA Stock: A Daily Perspective

NVDA made a new all-time high on Wednesday, the first since January 7. Its participation since the April 7 low has been a major and necessary piece to the SMH, XLK, NDX, and SPX’s rallies, and the global equity market’s overall comeback. 

We last cited the stock on May 27 and May 29 (before and right after it reported earnings), noting the bull flag pattern. The flag has held throughout, and NVDA is now close to achieving that price target. So, what’s next?

FIGURE 3: DAILY CHART OF NVDA’S STOCK PRICE. After the bull flag pattern, NVDA is close to achieving its price target.

NVDA vs. 200-Day Moving Average

NVDA’s comeback has pulled the stock back above its 200-day moving average. We’ve shown this before as the stock was coming back. The last few times NVDA reclaimed the long-term line after spending a long time below it, the stock advanced higher for years.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF NVDA WITH 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE. The last few times NVDA broke above its 200-day moving average after spending a long time below it, the stock advanced higher for years.

NVDA Stock: A Weekly Perspective

Even though NVDA made a marginal new high in early January, there was no follow-through. Thus, NVDA remains net flat since November 2024 and isn’t too far above its spike highs from last June either.

Altogether, the round trip can now be viewed as one big bullish pattern. We’ve seen similar formations play out three times since the October low. Once NVDA finally got through those volatile periods and broke out, those strong extensions that we all remember well ensued. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns, but patterns tend to repeat no matter the timeframe. So, we need to respect that the same kind of breakout could happen again with the stock is sitting at the same levels as it was eight months ago, but with strong market-wide demand at its back.

FIGURE 5. WEEKLY CHART OF NVDA. Could a breakout with strong market-wide demand occur?

NVDA – GoNoGo

NVDA’s weekly trend just flipped to positive on the GoNoGo chart, as well. As is clear, the last time this happened was in early 2023, the same time that the first bullish pattern on the preceding chart happened.

FIGURE 6. NVDA’S PRICE ACTION USING GONOGO CHART. The weekly trend just switched to positive. This happened in 2023, which is around the time the first bullish pattern occurred in the weekly chart in Figure 5.

NVDA Stock: A Monthly Perspective

Zooming way out, this also could be the fourth major breakout from a monthly perspective. The prior ones happened in 2015, 2020, and 2023.

FIGURE 7. MONTHLY CHART OF NVDA. There could be a fourth major breakout in NVDA’s stock price.

The Bottom Line

If you’re someone who likes to stay invested with an eye on the long-term, this is the kind of environment where patience pays off. The S&P 500 appears to be building strength, and NVDA is helping lead the charge.

Think trading against the trend is risky? You may want to reconsider. When a stock or ETF is trending lower, the smart money watches for signs of a reversal; those early signals can get you into a trend before everyone else and lead to favorable risk-to-reward ratios.

In this video, options strategist Tony Zhang breaks down how to spot high-probability counter-trend setups using technical signals and practical examples. You’ll learn how to identify early reversal signals, why counter-trend setups can be lower-risk than you’d think, and how to apply these strategies through examples and live reviews.

Whether you’re new to options trading or leveling up your game, this is your opportunity to explore a low-risk, high-performing strategy.

The video premiered on June 25, 2025.