The Indian equity markets remained under pressure over the past five sessions, witnessing sustained weakness throughout the week. The Nifty50 faced resistance at key levels and struggled to find strong footing as it tested crucial support zones on two separate occasions. Market volatility surged significantly, with India VIX rising by 9.72% to 15.02, signaling heightened uncertainty. The index moved within a wider-than-usual trading range of 793.75 points, reflecting increased turbulence. By the end of the week, the Nifty had recorded a net weekly loss of 630.70 points, equivalent to a decline of 2.68%.

The upcoming week holds significant importance as the index approaches critical technical levels. The 22,800 mark is particularly crucial, as any decisive violation of this support is likely to invite further downside pressure. On the upside, strong resistance is expected at 23,500 and higher levels, making it unlikely for even the best technical rebounds to extend beyond this point. The market’s reaction to the 22,800 level will play a vital role in determining its short-term trajectory. A breach of this level could open the door to additional weakness, intensifying selling pressure.

Given the prevailing conditions, the new trading week may witness a subdued start. The immediate resistance levels are expected to emerge at 23,150 and 23,400, while key support levels are positioned at 22,700 and 22,450. These levels will serve as crucial markers in assessing the index’s directional bias over the next few sessions.

From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart stands at 40.40, forming a 14-period low and displaying a clear bearish divergence. This signals weakening momentum and suggests that market sentiment remains fragile. Additionally, the weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is bearish, as it trades below the signal line, further confirming the downtrend.

A detailed pattern analysis indicates that the Nifty faced resistance at the 50-week moving average and subsequently resumed its downward movement. The inability to sustain gains above this crucial moving average reinforces the broader weakness in the market structure. If the index slips below 22,800, it could trigger further declines, potentially leading to deeper corrections in the near term.

Market participants should approach the coming sessions with heightened caution, considering the overall technical setup. The 22,800 level remains a key pivot, and any decisive breach could accelerate selling pressure. Given the prevailing conditions, it is advisable to use any technical rebound as an opportunity to protect profits rather than aggressively chase fresh long positions. New buying should be undertaken selectively, with a strong emphasis on risk management. Leveraged exposures should be kept at modest levels to navigate the increased volatility effectively. With market sentiment appearing fragile and downside risks persisting, a highly cautious approach remains warranted in the near term.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty Financial Services index has rolled back inside the leading quadrant. Besides this, the Nifty Bank Index is the only index that is inside the leading quadrant. These groups may continue to outperform the broader markets relatively.

The Nifty Services Sector Index and the Pharma Index are inside the weakening quadrant. However, they are seen improving on their relative momentum. Apart from this, the Midcap 100 and the IT index are inside the weakening quadrant.

The Media Index continues languishing inside the lagging quadrant along with the PSE and the Realty Index. They may relatively underperform the broader markets. The Energy Sector Index is also inside the lagging quadrant, but its relative momentum is improving.

The Nifty Commodities, Consumption, FMCG, Auto, and the Metal index are inside the improving quadrant. They may continue improving their relative performance against the broader markets. The PSU Bank index is also inside the improving quadrant, but it is seen sharply giving up on its relative momentum, and it is expected to underperform the broader Nifty 500 index relatively.

Important Note: RRG™ charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

The stock market is like a river — constantly changing without knowing what lies ahead. Sometimes it’s calm. Other times it’s choppy. And when the stock market is choppy, it can leave investors in a dilemma, leading them to make irrational investment decisions.

The broader stock market indexes have been choppy lately, going up one day and down the next. Frequent news headlines such as tariffs, inflation data, and earnings influence market price action. This makes it a very challenging environment for investors. So how should you position your portfolio in this type of market?

Instead of chasing headlines, navigate the market by analyzing the overall trend and momentum. Start with the big picture before diving into individual stocks or exchange-traded funds.

The View From the Top

The S&P 500 ($SPX) has seen a lot of sideways choppiness (see daily chart of the S&P 500 below). After it broke out of the downward channel (blue dashed lines), it continued moving sideways with a series of lower highs. The up-and-down price action reflects the headline-driven characteristic of the market.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF THE S&P 500 INDEX. The overall trend remains bullish, but don’t be surprised if the consolidation extends further.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The index looks like it wants to reverse the “lower highs” series and resume its uptrend. It tried hard to hit a record close but, alas, closed shy of it on Friday. The new 52-week highs outnumber the new 52-week lows, which is a sign of healthy market breadth.

The overall trend is in favor of the bulls, as of this writing, but there’s a lot of hesitancy among investors. If we continue to see a headline-driven market, there’s a chance of an extended consolidation period. We need to see a breakout of the consolidation, with a series of higher highs and higher lows to confirm the continuation of the uptrend.

Expect to see more headlines in the near term. So far, we’ve seen the news rattling the market sometimes and, at other times, not impacting the markets at all. Tariffs, inflation, tax cuts, and deregulation are a handful of topics you’re likely to hear about in the near term. Let’s analyze how each of these factors will impact your investment portfolio.

Trade Tariffs

Trump has imposed 10% tariffs on China and 25% on steel and aluminum imports. He has delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico but is still scheduled to impose them in early March. President Trump was expected to sign an order for reciprocal tariffs, but that turned into a memo requesting a plan of action for these tariffs. This could take a few months to get implemented. The market was quick to shrug this off.

There’s no doubt that tariffs are front and center in investors’ minds. Trump’s main objectives of tariffs are to collect revenues for the government, protect specific industries, and curtail the flow of illegal drugs into the US. But there are headwinds, the biggest of which is inflation. A restriction in global trade could send ripples through complex supply chains, resulting in higher prices.

Inflation: Will It Create Waves?

The Federal Reserve is already planning to pause rate cuts in 2025, and January’s hot CPI increased the probability of this happening. The dot plot now suggests one rate cut in 2025, which, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, is pushed out until the July Fed meeting, as of this writing.

A rise in inflation would mean the Fed would be more cautious with interest rate cuts. Tariffs and an expansion of the federal deficit could impact the interest rate cut path. A good chart to monitor inflation is the chart of the ProShares Inflation Expectations ETF/iShares TIPS Bond ETF (RINF:TIP), which approximates the market’s inflation expectations.

FIGURE 2. THE STOCK MARKET’S INFLATION EXPECTATIONS. Inflation expectations seem to be lowered after the market shrugged off recent inflation reports and tariff news.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Inflation expectations aren’t as low as they were in September 2024 but are below the January highs.

Why impose tariffs when it upsets global trade and results in inflation? One of President Trump’s tariff objectives is that tariff revenues will offset his planned tax cuts. 

Lower Taxes and Deregulation

Trump plans to extend the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) provisions. He also plans to add other tax cuts — eliminating taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits. Lower taxes means more money for consumers and corporations. But will the tax cuts be enough to make up for the higher prices consumers will have to pay for goods?

These are just one piece of the change puzzle. Other policy changes include less oversight across different industries. Three sectors that could benefit from deregulation are Financials, Industrials, and Energy.

• Financial companies can benefit the most, especially if rules for banks, credit card companies, etc. are more relaxed. The biggest beneficiary could be the big banks.
• Dialing back on environmental regulations such as carbon emissions will benefit oil and gas companies.
• Less compliance costs would mean more productivity. As a result, the Industrials sector could see gains.

The PerfChart below compares the one-year performance of the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI), and Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE).

FIGURE 3. PERFCHART OF FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, AND ENERGY. A deregulatory environment would benefit certain industries more than others. Financials are in the lead and are likely to benefit the most from deregulation.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The Financials are leading the pack, while the Energy sector is lagging. In a deregulatory environment, the Financials could remain in the lead.

The Bottom Line

Expect to see a boatload of news stories as the year unfolds. As a smart investor, the best way to navigate the stock market’s up and down waves is to follow the charts discussed in this article. There are many uncertainties in the market, so don’t sway your investment decisions based on what you hear in the news.

You never know what lies ahead, just like a river. But if you look at the overall trends, determine which sectors are being impacted by policy changes, and keep an eye on inflation expectations, you’ll be able to navigate steadily through the rough patches.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

How can we define the market trend on multiple time frames, so we can better identify trend changes and ensure we are following the drive of market forces?  Today I’ll describe my proprietary Market Trend Model to define the short-term, medium-term, and long-term trends, and share what it’s telling us about market conditions in February 2025.

Using Moving Averages to Define the Trend

Using a simple daily chart with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, we can show why the slope of the moving average can provide valuable insights on trend direction.  Let’s look at the daily chart of Apple (AAPL), and we’ll focus on a highlighted period in 2023-2024.

Starting with the 200-day moving average, we can see that the 200-day tends to slope higher during uptrends and lower during downtrends.  So for the highlighted period in 2023 and 2024, the 200-day moving average tended to slope higher through that entire trend.

Note how there were a couple meaningful pullbacks in the price of AAPL in Q3 2023 and Q2 2024.  While the 200-day moving average was still sloping higher, the 50-day moving average sloped downward in each of those pullbacks.  So by using two moving averages of varying periods, we can define the trend by simply looking at the slope of the moving averages.

We can also use a crossover technique and look for golden crosses (short-term moving average crosses above long-term moving average) and death crosses (short-term moving average crosses below long-term moving average) as a way of determining changes in those trends.

Exponential Moving Averages Improve Trend Detection

The problem with simple moving averages, as used above, is that they weigh all the data points equally in the calculation.  So what happened two days ago has the same impact as what happened 192 days ago!  By using exponential moving averages, which weight the most recent data the most, our charts will react more quickly to changes in the trend.

My Market Trend Model uses a series of exponential moving averages on a weekly chart of the S&P 500 to define the secular (long-term), cyclical (medium-term), and tactical (short-term) time frames.  By using the PPO indicator, I can chart the trends using a histogram and simply check if the comparison is above or below the zero line.

Based on my model, the long-term trend has been bullish since March 2023.  The medium-term trend, which is the most important one for my own portfolio analysis, turned bullish in November 2023.  And the short-term trend just turned bullish in early January after flipping bearish in early December of last year.

Tracking the Market Trend Model in February 2025

When my Market Trend Model is bullish on all three time frames, as it is as of this Friday’s closing price data, it tells me to be looking for long ideas and make sure I am taking on risk in my portfolio.  If the short-term trend would turn bearish, that would indicate a pullback phase within the long-term uptrend, as we observed a number of times in 2024.

The key signal I’m looking for would be the medium-term trend turning bearish, which last occurred in September 2023.  That signal would tell me to go more risk-off, to get more defensive, and to focus more on capital preservation than capital appreciation.  For now, my Market Trend Model is suggesting a market trending higher.  And until the medium-term trend turns bearish, I’m inclined to assume the market trend is innocent until proven guilty!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

As part of the DP Alert, we cover Bitcoin and the Dollar every market day. We have been watching some bearish indications on both Bitcoin and the Dollar with the double top chart patterns.

On Bitcoin, price has been moving mostly sideways above support at 90,000. This happens to be the confirmation line of the double top formation. The chart pattern calls for a decline the height of the pattern. This would give us a minimum downside target at about 75,000. The PMO is now in negative territory, but we do see that Stochastics have turned up. Support could hold here and price could continue to meander sideways, but with this pattern it is highly vulnerable.

On the weekly chart we see a parabolic advance followed by high level consolidation that formed a bull flag. After the last rally powered price up, we aren’t seeing high level consolidation, it instead looks like a topping formation with the double top very visible. The weekly PMO is nearing a Crossover SELL Signal which doesn’t bode well.

The Dollar also has a bearish double top visible on the daily and weekly charts. It looked pretty good for the Dollar coming out of a bullish flag formation, but the rally stalled and set up the second top. Technically the confirmation line (middle of the “M”) has been broken with Friday’s action. The RSI is negative and the PMO is in decline. Unlike Bitcoin, Stochastics are moving lower suggesting we will see more downside out of the Dollar. That would be good for Gold which is already enjoying a strong rally. The minimum downside target of the pattern would be around 28.25.

We had an especially bullish breakout from a bearish rising wedge, but now we have that double top. The weekly PMO has turned down and price looks as if it will be back within the wedge soon.

Conclusion: We have bearish double tops on Bitcoin and the Dollar. Bitcoin has an opportunity to avoid the breakdown given rising Stochastics, but the Dollar seems destined to continue to make its way lower with dropping Stochastics. Downside targets are 75,000 for Bitcoin and 28.25 for the Dollar.

The DP Alert: Your First Stop to a Great Trade!

Before you trade any stock or ETF, you need to know the trend and condition of the market. The DP Alert gives you all you need to know with an executive summary of the market’s current trend and condition. It not only covers the market! We look at Bitcoin, Yields, Bonds, Gold, the Dollar, Gold Miners and Crude Oil! Only $50/month! Or, use our free trial to try it out for two weeks using coupon code: DPTRIAL2. Click HERE to subscribe NOW!

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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin

(c) Copyright 2025 DecisionPoint.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

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Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)

ITBM and ITVM

SCTR Ranking

Bear Market Rules

The news cycle is in high gear lately, leading to some extra volatility. Traders reacting to the news are getting whipsawed, while chartists remain focused on what really matters. Price. Price isn’t everything, it is the only thing. News, rumors, fundamentals, the Fed, government policy and everything else are reflected in price. And, perhaps more importantly, it is easier to follow price than to distill the news. 

As chartists, it is not our job to interpret news events or fundamentals. Our job is to set biases aside and focus on price action. We need to answer three questions in a matter-of-fact manner. What is the long-term trend? Is the ETF/stock showing relative strength? Are there any bullish patterns in play? We want to be long when the answer to all three is yes.

TrendInvestorPro specializes in unbiased analysis that focuses exclusively on price action. Each week we define the big trends, identify the leaders and highlight bullish trading setups. We are currently tracking breakouts from mid January (XLI, KRE, ITA) and leadership in several tech-related ETFs (CIBR, IGV, CLOU, AIQ). Click here to take a trial and gain full access.

So what do we do with the news? Ed Seykota, a legendary trend-follower, advocated a systematic approach to trading. His rules-based focused on riding the trend, setting stop-losses and filing the news. This strategy is summed up in his classic Whipsaw Song, which includes the lines:

What do we do when we get a hot news flash?

We stash that flash right in the trash.

Do yourself a favor and stash that flash right in the trash!

Here is a recent “matter-of-fact” example from our ETF Report. SPY is in a long-term uptrend as a bullish cup-with-handle pattern takes shape. First, SPY is trading near a new high and well above the rising 200-day SMA. Second, the middle window shows the SPY/IWM ratio breaking out in mid December and again in February. This ratio rises when SPY (large-caps) outperforms IWM (small-caps).

SPY is in a long-term uptrend and showing relative strength. This leaves us with the third question. Is there a bullish pattern or trading setup on the price chart? SPY corrected from mid December to mid January and broke out on January 21st. At the time, a falling wedge (pink lines) formed and this bullish breakout featured in our report/video that week. New patterns emerge as bars are added and I now see a cup-with-handle, which is a bullish continuation pattern (blue lines). Rim resistance is set at 610 and a breakout here would confirm the pattern.

For subscribers to TrendInvestorPro, this report continues with a video covering the cup-with-handle pattern in detail. We discuss the rationale behind the pattern, a confirmation level, the price target and the re-evaluation level. Click here to take a trial and gain full access.

 ///////////////////////

Not everyone likes to take a contrarian stance. Most people prefer to move with the market, not against it. But for those who thrive on going against the grain, extreme market movements — whether a rally or selloff — present opportunities.

Wednesday morning was one of those sessions. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report came in hotter than expected, sending markets into an early plunge before trading mixed later in the day. This presented an ideal opportunity to hunt for stocks that might be bottoming.

My first move was to check the StockCharts’ Advancers & Decliners tool on my Dashboard for a real-time picture of market activity.

FIGURE 1. ADVANCERS & DECLINERS TOOL SECTORS VIEW. The hardest hit were Real Estate and Utilities.

The Real Estate and Utilities sectors were the most affected in the early part of the trading day. I needed a second angle to view the sector action. So, I switched over to the Sector Summary tool.

FIGURE 2. SECTOR SUMMARY TOOL. Percentage-wise, real estate had lost the most at the time of viewing.

After deciding to focus on the Real Estate sector, I ran a bearish New 52-Week Lows scan to see what I might find.

FIGURE 3. IMAGE OF SCAN PAGE AND RESULTS.  I found two homebuilder stocks: DHI and LEN.

DR Horton Inc. (DHI) and Lennar Corp. (LEN), two of the biggest US homebuilders, were making new 52-week lows.

Full transparency: If you notice the super-low SCTR scores, well, they’re making new 52-week lows … and I’m searching for a bottom, not only price-wise, but in terms of a turnaround from extreme technical weakness.

But how were they compared to their industry peers? To analyze their relative performance, I switched over the PerfCharts to get a comparative view, adding SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) as an industry proxy in addition to a third major homebuilder—Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL). TOL wasn’t on the list, but, as one of the major homebuilders showing relative strength despite its decline, I included it for comparison.

FIGURE 4. PERFCHARTS COMPARING XHB, DHI, LEN, AND TOL. TOL is the only stock outperforming its industry peers.

TOL is the only stock outperforming its peers, with LEN and DHI leading XHB downwards.

Back to my objective, I’m looking for stocks within the industry that might be close to bottoming out. But before I can do that, I must assess whether the industry might be bottoming out and if the current market response to the newly released CPI figures may be overextended or justified by underlying valuations.

Below is a five-year weekly chart of XHB.

FIGURE 5. WEEKLY CHART OF XHB. The index topped, but will it bounce or continue its decline?

If you look at XHB’s rising prices from the beginning of 2024 through October, in contrast to the Relative Strength Index’s (RSI) decline from above the 70 threshold, the bearish divergence is clear, confirming XHB’s topping action. The RSI is below the 50-line but nowhere near oversold territory. 

Looking at sector breadth, the Real Estate Bullish Percent Index (BPI) is currently favoring the bulls, as over 50% of stocks within the sector are triggering Point & Figure “buy” signals. Although homebuilders don’t appear to be participating in this rally, will the broader sector eventually help lift the industry (in other words, are homebuilders bottoming)?

The critical level to watch here is $97 to $101 (see blue highlight), two swing lows that should serve as technical support. To broaden the viable support range, I overlaid an Ichimoku Cloud. If XHB falls below either the swing low or the cloud, then, technically, there’s plenty of downside to go. If it bounces, then a bullish case might take shape.

With this in mind, look at all three stocks (TOL, LEN, and DHI) side by side.

FIGURE 6. ACP CHARTS OF TOL, LEN, AND DHI.  TOL, the better-performing stock, is nearing a critical support level.

The blue horizontal lines in each chart mark recent swing lows, all of which are (or were) critical support levels. TOL is about to test that level, while LEN and DHI have already fallen below theirs.

Here’s a daily chart of TOL.

FIGURE 7. DAILY CHART OF TOL. Watch how price responds to these two support levels.

TOL is nearing support at the $120 December swing low. A closer look at the RSI reveals a slight bullish divergence, with the indicator rising from the 30-line even as TOL briefly dips below $120 before staging a strong bounce. Meanwhile, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has fallen into negative territory. However, this dip is less pronounced than in December, when TOL’s price may have formed a bottom.

If TOL closes below $120, the more critical support level is $110. This is the longer-term support level shown in the weekly chart. If TOL remains above this threshold and proceeds to advance, then it’s likely that a bottom may be in place. Check volume and momentum to confirm the reversal if or when it happens.

Next, take a look at this daily chart of DHI.

FIGURE 8. DAILY CHART OF DHI. I’m using a measured move approach to determine where it might find support before the next swing low.

If you reference the weekly charts in Figure 6, you’ll see that DHI had fallen below critical support at $135 and is still falling. The next major level of support would be the October 2023 low at $100. However, given the near-symmetry of each swing, you might expect DHI to bounce at the “measured move” level near the $118 range.

The CMF is well below the zero line, indicating that selling pressure is driving the stock’s decline. However, the RSI presents a bullish divergence, with its recent lows trending higher even as the stock continues to fall. Still, without a definitive bounce and a shift in the CMF — a key volume indicator — there’s no clear confirmation that a bottom is in place.

Lastly, let’s switch over to a daily chart of LEN.

FIGURE 9. DAILY CHAFT OF LEN. In the near term, there’s no support in sight.

The next support level for LEN may be the November 2023 low of $101. In the near term, however, there doesn’t seem to be much in sight to prevent LEN’s descent. That said, a few volume-based signals suggest the selling pressure may not be entirely one-sided.

• The Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL), shown rising above the current price (see green line), indicates that money flows are increasing; a bullish sign for LEN.
• The volume of selling pressure, according to the CMF, is significantly easing.
• The Money Flow Index (MFI), which tracks volume and momentum, is climbing even as LEN continues to decline, indicating a bullish divergence.

While there’s no sign of bottoming, you may want to continue monitoring the stock for signs of stabilization.

At the Close

This piece demonstrates an attempt to spot bottoming opportunities during Wednesday’s market selloff. By tracking sector performance with StockCharts tools—namely, Advancers & Decliners and Sector Summary—I spotted Real Estate as one of the hardest-hit areas. A New 52-Week Lows scan flagged LEN and DHI, which I compared to TOL using PerfCharts to gauge relative strength. While these stocks haven’t confirmed a bottom yet, there are hints of a shift.

It’s worth adding LEN, DHI, and TOL to your ChartLists and keeping an eye on them. Once they stabilize and bottom out, it could signal an early entry point well before the next uptrend takes shape.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Intel’s stock price has struggled for most of 2024, even as most of its semiconductor cousins were thriving. Why pay attention to Intel Corp. (INTC) now?

The stock showed up on my StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) scan, which is a good enough reason to analyze the stock. The scan is provided at the end of the article.

Vice President JD Vance emphasized the increase in US AI systems manufacturing in the AI summit in Paris. Since Intel is the largest domestic AI chip producer, the stock price got a much-needed boost. gave INTC a boost.

Previously, INTC has been beaten down hard. Weak earnings didn’t help, and the stock has been acting like a sinking ship with no lifeboat since the second half of 2024 (see chart below). But things may be shifting as it looks like the lifeboat may have appeared, bringing the stock a little closer to the surface.

The daily chart of INTC stock below gives a good picture of the price action.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF INTEL STOCK. The stock has closed higher for four consecutive days. It’s now hitting its first resistance against the 200-day moving average. Look for a breakout off of this level.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Note the following points in the chart:

• The stock price has risen for four consecutive days with increasing volume.
• Thursday’s close is battling against its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) resistance.
• The SCTR score has crossed above the 76 level, the first criterion of my scan.
• Intel’s relative performance (price relative/relative strength) against the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is now in positive territory (13.02%).
• The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) has crossed above its signal line and moved above zero.

With all the positive technicals, does it mean INTC stock is a buy at these levels? A break above the 200-day SMA would check one box. Beyond that, I would look at the November 2024 high (see weekly chart below).

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF INTC STOCK. After a steep fall in mid-2024, Intel’s stock price is showing signs of recovery. A break above its early November high would be the first sign of a move higher.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

A break above this high could mean that INTC could float toward its 52-week high. However, there are resistance hurdles to cross — the July 2024 high and January to March 2024 consolidation — before reaching the December 2023 high.

The bottom line: I’ll be monitoring Intel’s stock price closely. I’ve set an alert to notify me when the stock price crosses $26.25. If the indicators in the daily chart still indicate buying pressure is still strong and the trend is bullish, I’ll consider adding INTC to my portfolio.

SCTR Scan

[country is US] and [sma(20,volume) > 100000] and [[SCTR.us.etf x 76] or [SCTR.large x 76] or [SCTR.us.etf x 78] or [SCTR.large x 78] or [SCTR.us.etf x 80] or [SCTR.large x 80]]

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this exclusive StockCharts video, Joe shows how the 4-day moving average can be useful especially in volatile markets. He explains the advantages of using it in conjunction with the 18-day MA to prevent buying at the wrong time and highlighting when good opportunities appear. He then goes through the commodity charts and shows the improvement taking place. Finally, Joe dives into the symbol requests that came through this week, including ASAN, FTV, and more.

This video was originally published on February 12, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

While 2024 was defined by the strength of the Magnificent 7 stocks, 2025 has so far been marked by a significant change of character on many of these former high flying growth names.  And while most remain in constructive long-term patterns, the short-term changes make me skeptical of further market upside without the support of these mega cap players.

Let’s group these charts into three buckets: the top performers, the broken charts, and the diverging darlings.

The Top Performers: META and NFLX

This first bucket features two stocks that are moving higher in 2025 just like they did for much of 2024.  While the remaining stocks on this list have experienced some change of character, these are the names that remain in consistent uptrend phases.

Both Meta Platforms (META) and Netflix (NFLX) have achieved new all-time highs in February, with strong earnings calls serving as the latest catalyst for price appreciation.  Both charts remain above upward-sloping 50-day moving averages, and as long as they continue to make higher highs and higher lows, they should be considered innocent until proven guilty.

The Broken Charts: TSLA, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA

2025 has been much less kind to this second group of “Formerly Magnificent 7” names, as all four of them have pulled back from a strong 4th quarter performance.  Apple (AAPL) in particular strikes me as a chart that is demonstrating a potentially catastrophic bearish price pattern, with a clear “line in the sand” to monitor in the coming weeks.

After rising to a new all-time high around $260 in late December, AAPL pulled back to find support at the early November low around $220.  While the stock has bounced higher after that sudden 16% drop, a bearish engulfing pattern at the 50-day moving average at the end of January reinforced that this is a name most likely in a distribution pattern.

Now we have clear neckline support at the previous swing lows around $220.  If AAPL is able to hold this support level, then we’d label this a consolidation phase and wait for further clarification.  But if the $220 level is finally broken, that would complete a topping pattern and also represent a break of the 200-day moving average.  A quick measurement would suggest a downside target around $190, representing a 27% drop from the December 2024 high.

The Diverging Darlings: AMZN and GOOGL

Now we’re left with two stocks that both feature a bearish momentum divergence, a pattern that has proliferated among US stocks in recent months.  When prices make new highs on strong momentum, that suggests a healthy uptrend phase.  But when prices make new highs on weaker momentum, this bearish divergence indicates a lack of upside follow-through and a high likelihood of a market top.

While Amazon.com (AMZN) still remains above two upward-sloping moving averages, the early February high is marked by a downward-sloping RSI.  This bearish pattern could easily be negated if AMZN is able to achieve further highs on improving momentum.  But the divergence looks very similar to other stocks that have experienced major tops.

In fact, Alphabet (GOOGL) featured a bearish momentum divergence going into last week’s earnings release.  And while that certainly put GOOGL on a “red flag” watch list for me, the gap lower and subsequent post-earnings drop tells me that investors are questioning the long-term bull story for this former leadership name.

Similar to the AAPL chart, I would argue that the 200-day moving average could be the most important level to watch.  A pullback to the 200-day moving average after an earnings miss could represent a decent retracement to set the stage for the next big move higher.  But if stocks like AAPL and GOOGL fail to hold that the 200-day moving average, what would that tell us about investors’ risk appetite in February 2025?

To be clear, very few of the Magnificent 7 stock look truly negative from a long-term perspective, with most of them still within close proximity to a recent all-time high.  But given how many of these former leadership names have experienced at least initial breakdowns from their recent highs, I’m starting to look elsewhere for opportunities on the long side.

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

On Monday morning, President Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports — a sweeping policy move that’s certain to reshape the Materials sector. While this can negatively affect several industries, domestic steel producers are likely to benefit from increased demand.

How Markets Reacted to the 25% Tariff Announcement

The StockCharts MarketCarpets provides a clear visual of how investors reacted when the tariff announcement made headlines.

FIGURE 1. MARKETCARPETS VIEW OF THE MATERIALS SECTOR. Notice the top gainers consist of domestic metals producers.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The stocks that gained the most following the announcement were Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) and Nucor Corporation (NUE), both domestic steel producers, as well as Newmont Corporation (NEM), a mining company focused on gold and copper extraction.

The surge in STLD and NUE reflects investor expectations that tariffs will curb foreign competition, allowing US steelmakers to raise prices and expand market share. NEM also gained, likely due to broader market concerns over trade tensions and inflation. On top of this, copper — a key industrial metal — could see supply chain shifts or price fluctuations, depending on how tariffs impact global trade flows.

Let’s take a longer-term look at these stocks relative to the Materials sector and the broader market (S&P 500). Below is a PerfCharts view of their relative performance over the last year.

FIGURE 2. PERFCHARTS OF THE S&P 500, XLB, STLD, NUE, AND NEM. Though NEM outperformed, the other stocks and the Materials sector underperformed the broader market.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Global steel production decreased in 2024. So it’s no surprise that the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB), our sector proxy, underperformed the S&P 500, and that many steel producers and miners would also underperform the broader market and sector. Interestingly, NEM outperformed the S&P 500, XLB, STLD, and NUE in 2024 due to surging gold prices, strong financial performance, increased gold production, and free cash flow.

Still, if the new tariff environment remains unchanged, then NEM and especially STLD and NUE may have plenty of room to run. Let’s take a look at the sector and all three stocks to see if there are any present trading opportunities.

Let’s start with XLB. Take a look at a 5-year seasonality chart of XLB to get some context.

FIGURE 3. 5-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF XLB.  Sector performance tends to follow a cyclical pattern, with March, July, and November historically seeing the highest close rates and average gains.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Geopolitical shifts under the new administration will likely reshape seasonal trends. Nevertheless, historical context remains valuable. Over the past five years, March has been XLB’s second-strongest month, with a 75% higher-close rate and an average gain of 4.8%. That’s the seasonality picture.

Now, let’s look at the price action from a longer-term trend perspective. Below is a weekly chart of XLB.

FIGURE 4. WEEKLY CHART OF XLB. While the Materials sector has lagged behind the S&P 500, it’s been trending upward nevertheless.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

This five-year chart shows XLB underperforming the S&P 500. If you go back a few decades, this negative performance has been steady. Yet XLB, due to overall market growth, inflation, and sector-specific cycles, has been trending up in absolute terms.

Demand for materials is cyclical, and the Materials sector Bullish Percent Index ($BPMATE), a breadth indicator, illustrates this clearly. Currently, the BPI is moving upwards, with 31% of stocks within the sector flashing Point & Figure buy signals. Typically a crossover from below to above 30% would issue a bull alert; a move above 50% would strongly favor the bulls, signifying that buyers have the edge. Understanding XLB’s broader trend helps contextualize whether the stocks within the sector are moving with or against the sector’s trend relative to their trajectories.

Let’s look at the daily chart of NEM.

FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF NEM. Is it a new bullish trend or a bear rally?Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

NEM is attempting to recover from a steep selloff that began in October. The key question is whether the bullish reversal signals the start of a robust recovery or a temporary bounce within a sustained downtrend.

To gain insight into this question, let’s examine a couple of indicators: one that measures momentum and another that analyzes volume. Volume-wise, the Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL) plotted behind the price shows strong money flow into the stock, its buying pressure supporting NEM’s recovery. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is showing strong bullish momentum, yet indicates that NEM may be sailing into overbought conditions.

The key levels to watch are near the top line (Leading Span B, red cloud) and the projected bottom line (also the Leading Span B, but in the green section) of the Ichimoku Cloud. If price declines at or near the top, but bounces at the bottom, the bullish reversal thesis remains intact, signaling a potential early buying opportunity for those looking to get into the stock. If prices fall below the bottom level, the downtrend is likely to resume.

Now let’s look at the domestic steelmakers on the list, starting with a weekly chart of STLD.

FIGURE 6. WEEKLY CHART OF STLD. The stock price looks like it’s in a volatile ascent.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

I’m highlighting a weekly rather than a daily chart for two reasons: First, you can’t see the larger (trend) context on a daily chart, and second, the key levels are just as apparent in the weekly as in the daily chart.

Over the last six years, of which the last three are shown on the chart, STLD has been trending upward with increasing volatility. Steel production in the US may have decreased significantly in 2024, yet STLD prices continue to cumulatively rise. This trend underscores the inherent cyclicality of the steel industry, as evidenced by the fluctuating prices.

NOTE: Although “seasonality” and cyclicality can be related, the latter refers more to macroeconomic, industry, and supply-demand shifts. These typically drive fluctuations in a manner that gets smoothed out in seasonality charts. So, when I use the term “cyclicality,” I’m referring to these fluctuations before them being “averaged out” in a seasonality calculation.

The ZigZag line illustrates the major swing highs and lows that define the trend, as well as key support and resistance levels. If STLD’s uptrend were to maintain its trajectory, price must stay above the swing low level slightly above $110 (see magenta line) and eventually break above resistance at the most recent swing high at $155. Given this is a weekly chart, it may take months to play out (assuming the longer-term uptrend sustains itself).

Note, however, that the selling pressure appears to be the dominant driver for near-term volume, according to the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). If volume precedes price in this particular instance, then a pullback may be imminent.

Last, but not least, take a look at a daily chart of NUE.

FIGURE 7. DAILY CHART OF NUE. The stock is in a downtrend and all the indicators spell a bear rally.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

NUE may have jumped 6.24% on Monday, but what are investors rushing into? While Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports are likely to boost domestic steel producers, NUE is amid an arguably robust downtrend.

Its response to the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement (drawn from the December high to low) isn’t promising either, making the recent surge look more like a bear rally than a bullish trend reversal. Additionally, the CMF has remained largely negative, dipping well below the zero line and recently crossing it again, indicating that selling pressure continues to dominate.

However, there are shoots of hope, as NUE appears to be rising against the broader Dow Jones U.S. Iron & Steel Index ($DJUSST) of which NUE is a component (see magenta line). If NUE stays above the $115 level (the most recent swing low), then such a level may signal a bottom. Of course, you’ll want to make sure that volume and momentum support are aligned with this potential reversal.

At the Close

If you’re bullish on U.S. steel producers, consider adding these stocks to your ChartLists, keeping a close watch on the MarketCarpets Materials sector view, and staying informed on industry news. With these tools and insights, you’re likely to spot a market opportunity.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.