If you logged into the CNBC website on Thursday morning, you might have seen the headline, “Wells Fargo says don’t buy this rally, fundamentals don’t support it.“

Investors relying solely on fundamentals and not knowing how to read market technicals may be at a disadvantage when market analysts issue such warnings. It makes you wonder when they might finally give the green light if the market remains bullish.

Wells Fargo issued a similar warning back in November 2023. Whether analysts are right or wrong isn’t the point. The real point is that it’s important to have the right tools to anticipate a move, regardless of what fundamental analysts say.

A Look At November 2023

Let’s look at a weekly chart of the S&P 500 index ($SPX).

CHART 1. WEEKLY CHART OF THE S&P 500($SPX). Coming off a wave of selling, Wells Fargo warned not to buy into the recovery.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The following are points to note about the above chart.

The warning. Note the week that Wells Fargo issued a “don’t buy this rally” warning (black arrow). The S&P 500 just broke above its last swing high at around 4,450.

The context. Look at the NYSE New Highs, NYSE New Lows, and NYSE New High/New Low ratio. The market was coming off a heavy wave of selling (blue circle in $NYLOW panel). Yet, on the week of the warning, note that new highs were ticking up (blue vertical rectangle).

The expectation. Bank analysts thought the S&P 500 might be stuck in a range between 4,100 and 4,600 (magenta rectangle in price chart), citing headwinds ahead. Indeed, there were two more technical headwinds in the form of resistance at 4,540 and 4,600.

The outcome. The S&P 500 kept going higher as soon as it broke above 4,600. So much for analyst expectations.

What You Could Have Done

Nobody could have predicted what the S&P 500 was going to do. So, if you simply went long on a breakout of 4,450 and put a stop either below that level or, if you were willing to risk more, below 4,100, you would have seen the S&P 500 break above the resistance levels overhead as it soared to new heights. It was all about watching the key levels.

What’s Happening in Light of the New Warning

Let’s look at a daily chart.

CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF THE S&P 500. There is plenty of downside room for the index to decline while maintaining its uptrend.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Whether fundamentals do or do not support the S&P 500’s current rally, what you want to pay attention to are the following:

• So far, the S&P Bullish Percent Index (BPI), a market breadth indicator, is favoring the bulls as the levels (77%) are well above 50% and rising, meaning that over 77% of S&P 500 stocks are flashing Point & Figure buy signals.
• The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), however, is warning of a potential pullback, as buying pressure is on the decline.
• An Ichimoku Cloud has been plotted to measure the technical bullishness of the trend (thick green is a good signal) and to anticipate a potential support range.
• But to zoom in on a potential support range, look to the Quadrant Lines to see how it divides the current price action into four zones. First and second quadrants indicate strength despite a pullback. Indications of weakness begin in the third quadrant (below the 50% level) and especially the fourth quadrant (below the 75% level), which is where you should begin worrying. These quadrants are also highlighted by the magenta rectangle.
• A close below the bottom of the quadrant, followed by further declines, means that the current uptrend is no longer valid.

Closing Bell

Wells Fargo may have said, “Don’t buy this rally,” but here’s the deal: if you can’t follow key technical levels, you risk missing out on key moves (whether the forecast was right or wrong). It happened before. Will it happen again? We don’t know, so watch those levels.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The stock market got what it wanted from the Federal Reserve—a 50 basis point interest rate cut. Stocks rose initially, but the broader stock indexes—Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU), S&P 500 ($SPX), and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ)—closed lower. Small- and mid-cap indexes followed the broader indexes and closed slightly higher, with the S&P 600 Small Cap Index ($SML) rising by 0.09%. All S&P sectors except Energy closed lower.

It was a case of “buy the rumor, sell the news” after the Fed’s announcement. The stock market rose in anticipation of an interest rate cut, so a selloff after the announcement shouldn’t be a big surprise. It’s almost as if the anticipation fizzled off.

The selloff wasn’t too damaging, though. Equities are still holding up. The S&P 500 hit a record in Wednesday’s trading, but closed below its blue dashed trendline (see chart below).

CHART 1. S&P 500 CONTINUES TO BATTLE AGAINST RESISTANCE. After hitting an all-time high, the S&P 500 fell and closed below its downward-sloping trendline. The stochastic oscillator in the lower panel is starting to turn lower.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The stochastic oscillator is starting to turn lower, but is still above the 70 level. The S&P 500 is trading above its 21-day exponential moving average, which is still sloping higher. There still needs to be a series of higher highs to break the gentle downward-sloping trendline. Remember, it’s still September, and the latter part of the month tends to be weaker than the first half.

US Economy in Good Shape

Fed Chair Jerome Powell remarked that the economy is holding up well and heading toward a soft landing. His comments shifted from inflation, which continues to decline, to the labor market. The committee will closely watch the labor market, which is at 4.2% unemployment. That’s close to full employment.

Investors can expect another 50 basis point rate cut this year and an additional 100 basis points in 2025. Chairman Powell pointed out that investors shouldn’t expect 50 basis point cuts at the next meeting. The pace may be slower, going forward.

Earlier in the day on Wednesday, housing data painted a positive picture of the housing market. Housing starts and building permits rise, probably because of a fall in mortgage rates.

A strengthening housing market, falling inflation, and a stabilizing labor market point to economic stability.

Bonds Pull Back

Treasury yields rose after the rate cut decision, resulting in falling bond prices. It’s worth watching the bond market. The daily chart of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) shows that Wednesday’s selloff was sizable. If TLT falls further, watch the upward-sloping trendline (blue dashed line) as a potential support level.

CHART 2. BOND PRICES ARE STILL IN AN UPTREND. Watch TLT’s price action at the blue trendline. This could be a viable support level at which the ETF could bounce off and move higher.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Ideally, when interest rates fall, bond prices should go up. If TLT bounces off the trendline and moves higher, it would be an opportunity to accumulate more positions in TLT.

Closing Position

Now that the stock market has received what it wanted, it’s taking a breather. Allow some time for the news to digest, which could take a couple of weeks, and look for signs of a market bottom. Toward the last hour of trading, there was much selling across the board. Let’s see if the selling continues tomorrow or abates.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this exclusive StockCharts TV video, Joe shows how to use RSI in multiple timeframes to identify the next buying opportunity in the SPY. Joe thinks this rally is important; he uses the ADX to distinguish between the strength in different indices. Joe demonstrates how he moves quickly around ACP, discussing some valuable sector action in the process. Finally, he goes through the symbol requests that came through this week, including NVDA, PYPL, and more.

This video was originally published on September 18, 2024. Click this link to watch on StockCharts TV.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

Shopify (SHOP) continues to show strong potential for growth, which is supported by fundamentals and technicals. As the broader e-commerce market expands, SHOP is well-positioned to capture additional market share from rivals such as Amazon.com (AMZN), thanks to its competitive suite of solutions for businesses of all sizes. SHOP has continued outperforming its peers in earnings and revenue growth, which supports its future growth.

Recently, SHOP’s stock price broke out above its trading range and has pulled back to its $67 support level. This provides an attractive risk/reward opportunity for bullish exposure. The stock is also trading above its 200-day simple moving average, a positive trend signal, with a potential breakout to the $85 level based on historical price action. This gives investors an entry point near a solid support level while maintaining significant upside potential.

CHART 1. DAILY CHART OF SHOP STOCK. After breaking out of a trading range, SHOP’s stock price has pulled back to a support level. SHOP has the potential to break out to the $85 level. The stock is trading above its 200-day moving average, its relative strength to the S&P 500 is close to zero, and the MACD is in the early stages of a bullish crossover.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Fundamental Analysis of SHOP Stock

Shopify’s valuation appears fairly justified, with a Forward P/E ratio of 53.47x, which is high but reflects its exceptional expected earnings per share (EPS) growth rate of 185.5%, compared to an industry average of only 13.68%. Its expected revenue growth of 21.88% also outpaces the industry average of 8.59%. Moreover, despite the high valuation, SHOP maintains healthy net margins at 16.33%, close to the industry average of 17.83%. This rapid growth and strong profitability metrics support the stock’s long-term bullish outlook.

SHOP Stock Options Structure

I recommend a Call Vertical Spread using the SHOP November 1, $75/85 strikes at a net debit of $2.96 to take advantage of this potential upside. This trade entails:

        •       Buying the Nov 1 $75 calls at $4.33

        •       Selling the Nov 1 $85 calls at $1.37

Below is the risk curve for the Call Vertical Spread.

This options strategy offers a maximum reward of $704, with a risk of $296, providing a favorable risk/reward ratio. The breakeven price for the trade is $77.96, meaning Shopify’s stock price only needs to trade slightly above its current levels for this strategy to be profitable. If SHOP reaches $85 or higher by expiration, this trade could achieve a 238% return on investment!

The broader stock market indexes are still in a holding pattern as investors await the Fed’s decision on Wednesday. Tuesday’s price action was a little like a “Whac-a-Mole” game for the S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ). Both indexes poked above their downward-sloping trendlines (the Nasdaq’s line is steeper) but fell back below them by Tuesday’s close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU), which hit an all-time high on Monday, also retreated, snapping its four-day up streak.

Small- and mid-cap stocks were Tuesday’s leaders, with the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index ($MID) up by 0.34% and the S&P 600 Small-Cap Index ($SML) up 0.60%. 

Turning to the Extended Factors Market Factors data panel on the StockCharts Dashboard, small-cap revenue (RWJ) and small-cap quality (XSHQ) ETFs were the biggest gainers. The Invesco S&P SmallCap 600 Revenue ETF (RWJ) took the lead at the end of last week—we mentioned this in our weekly ChartWatchers newsletter—and continues gaining strength and momentum.

A Weekly Perspective

It’s worth breaking down the price action in RWJ before Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, starting with the weekly chart.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF INVESCO S&P SMALLCAP 600 REVENUE ETF. RWJ has been trading within a range since early 2021. It’s getting ready to break out of the range, but whether it does will depend on how the Fed’s decision appeals to investors.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

RWJ has been in a trading range since early 2021 (blue rectangle). During that time, investors gravitated toward mega-cap Tech stocks while other asset classes, such as small-cap stocks, were left behind. But that could change depending on what the Federal Reserve decides on Wednesday. Interest rate cuts would benefit small-cap stocks. That RWJ is trading above its trading range indicates that investors are hopeful the Fed will decide on a half-point rate cut.

The StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) in the top panel is at 89, which indicates that RWJ is technically strong. A rate cut could increase this score if investors continue accumulating this ETF. The relative strength index (RSI) is stalling between 50 and 70. A break above 70 would be positive for RWJ, whereas a fall below 50 would show that interest in the ETF is weakening.

But what if the Fed decides on a quarter-point cut instead of the half-point the market expects? Will investors get disappointed and sell off their small-cap stocks? Remember, the stock market can change quickly for no sound reason. This is why it’s best to map out bearish and bullish scenarios ahead of a volatile trading day.

Let’s examine RWJ’s daily chart to understand the two scenarios better.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF RWJ. The ETF must close above its last high of $45.39, and the MACD should reflect stronger buying pressure.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

A series of higher highs will confirm an uptrend. If RWJ closes above its last high of $45.39, it could break the slightly bearish trend the ETF has been in for the last month and a half.

The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator, which is also trending lower, shows early signs of increasing bullish pressure. The MACD line has just crossed over the signal line, and the MACD histogram is slightly above the zero line. But it must be much more prominent to confirm a bullish move in RWJ.

If bullish momentum kicks in on Wednesday after the Fed makes its interest rate decision, an ideal entry point would be at $45.50, around its July 31 close. If the Fed’s decision disappoints and doesn’t favor small-cap stocks, then focus on which asset classes outperform from the Market Factors panel in the StockCharts Dashboard.

Closing Bell

If it’s time for small-cap stocks to shine, you could enter the bull run early. But remember, this is a new all-time high for RWJ, so if you enter a position, keep an eye on momentum. As long as momentum keeps the ETF rising, you can ride out your position, but if you have made a respectable profit and detect a slowdown, be prepared to exit your positions. There’s no reason to be married to an investment.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

As of Tuesday, the CME’s FedWatch Tool gave a 67% chance of a 50 basis-point rate cut—way up from the 25-point cut everyone was betting on just days ago. A rate cut could send the price of gold soaring past its all-time high, so investors and goldbugs are on edge, waiting for the results of this week’s FOMC meeting.

Suppose the expected rate cuts do take place and gold price jumps. How high can the yellow metal soar? The tricky part is that these levels have no historical prices to gauge such a move.

Fundamental analysts are all over the place with their projections, leaving you more confused than informed. But don’t worry; there are technical tools you can use to gauge potential upside and keep an eye on any downside risks.

Using the ACP Fibonacci Extension Tool

Pull up a SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) chart in StockChartsACP. Using the annotation tool, draw a Fibonacci Retracement line from the February low to the May high. In your settings, click on the extensions to get price projections beyond the 0% to 100% measure. Also, be sure to check the extension levels you want to see (as shown below):

FIGURE 1: FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT PARAMETERS. If you want Fib extensions, check the levels you want to see.Image source: StockChartsACP. For educational purposes.

This is what the chart should look like (see weekly chart of GLD below).

FIGURE 2: WEEKLY GOLD PRICE CHART. Setting your extension levels will help you get price projections for GLD.Chart source: StockChartsACP. For educational purposes.

Here’s what to keep an eye on:

• The 127.20% extension has already been met as profit-takers began selling their position.
• If GLD continues to move higher, the next upside targets are $242.50 (138.20% Fib extension) and $252.70 (161.80% Fib extension).

These are your two intermediate-term targets. Anything above that is possible, but you’ll need to check the fundamentals and technicals before making new projections.

But what if prices dip? How do you measure the pullback to decide if it’s a good time to jump in or if it’s headed for a bigger drop—meaning you should wait it out?

To answer that, let’s shift to a daily SharpCharts view of GLD.

Using Quadrant Lines to Gauge a Pullback

FIGURE 3. DAILY GOLD PRICE CHART. Note the short-term and intermediate-term quadrant lines. However, don’t ignore the divergence between price movement and the Money Flow Index (MFI) in the top panel.Chart source: StockChartsACP. For educational purposes.

The chart has two types of Quadrant Lines:

• The blue Quadrant Lines measure the short-term price action.
• The red Quadrant Lines measure the intermediate-term price action.

Not familiar with Quadrant Lines? In a nutshell, Quadrant Lines break down the high-low range into four sections. Think of them as a visual guide to see where prices stand within that range. Like Fibonacci retracements, they can spot potential reversals—a shallow 25% pullback might show strength, while a deeper 75% retracement could signal a potential reversal.

With this in mind, note the following:

• Based on the short-term lines, the price of GLD can pull back to $231 without messing up the short-term trend, but, if price breaks below $228.50, that’s a different (and bearish) story.
• The intermediate-term uptrend is still intact as long as GLD stays above $223, but, if it falls below $218, that trend’s out the window, too.

In terms of momentum:

• Buying pressure continues to rise, based on the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF).
• However, if you look at the Money Flow Index (MFI), which functions like a volume-weighted RSI, note the divergence between the MFI line and the price of GLD; this indicates the likelihood of a continued pullback (so watch those quadrant lines!).

At the Close

Predicting the price of gold beyond all-time highs is tough, but, if fundamental tools fall short, technicals can offer clarity—whether prices keep climbing or take a dip. As far as gold prices are concerned, watch GLD’s next moves closely and use Fibonacci Extensions and Quadrant Lines to help inform your setup.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

As part of Carl’s review of Gold charts, he explained how we use the close-ended fund, Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) to measure sentiment for Gold. Depending on how PHYS trades, it trades at a discount or premium based on the physical Gold that it holds. These discounts and premiums help us measure Gold sentiment.

Uranium (URA) and Nuclear Energy ETF (NLR) have formed double bottoms but how healthy do they look moving forward? Carl addresses this question.

Carl also discusses his thoughts on Intel (INTC) which saw quite a gain on Monday. Is the chart healthy though?

Market trend and condition was covered in Carl’s analysis of the SPY as well as a look at Gold, Gold Miners, Bitcoin, the Dollar and more on Bonds and yields.

We have our regular view of the Magnificent Seven and how these stocks are lined up to start the week.

Erin discusses the current sector rotation being displayed within the market and it is clear that traders are hedging their bets with entry into defensive sectors which are clearly outperforming.

The pair finish with an analysis of viewers’ symbol requests!

01:05 DP Signal Tables

03:37 Market Analysis

05:59 Gold Sentiment Discussion

09:50 Gold Miners, Bonds/Yields, Bitcoin

13:57 Magnificent Seven

18:41 Uranium and Nuclear Energy ETFs

21:43 Intel (INTC)

25:06 Questions

30:38 Sector Rotation

35:10 Symbol Requests

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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin

(c) Copyright 2024 DecisionPoint.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

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Bear Market Rules

Good morning and welcome to this week’s Flight Path. Equities saw the “Go” trend return after a triplet of uncertain “Go Fish” bars. We saw blue “Go” bars from Wednesday on. Treasury bond prices remained in a strong “Go” trend painting blue bars the entire week. U.S. commodities remained in a “NoGo” trend this week but as the week came to a close we saw a couple of weaker pink bars. The dollar also saw its “NoGo” trend continue and after a string of weaker pink bars, we saw a strong purple “NoGo” bar to end the week.

$SPY Recovers From Uncertainty

The GoNoGo chart below shows that after several amber “Go Fish” bars representing uncertainty the “Go” trend found its feet again this past week. Strong blue “Go” bars returned on Wednesday and we saw prices climb close to prior highs once again. If we turn our attention to the oscillator panel we can see that the oscillator broke through the zero line into positive territory after having spent a few days below that level. Now, with momentum resurgent in the direction of the “Go” trend, we see a Go Trend Continuation Icon (green circle) under the price bar. We will watch to see if this gives price the push it needs to make a new higher high.

The longer time frame chart shows a strong recovery last week. Price made up all of the lost ground and closed near the very top of the week’s trading range. Now, with another strong blue “Go” bar and momentum in positive territory but not yet overbought, we will watch to see if price can climb further from here.

“NoGo” Trend Continues in Force for Treasury Rates

Treasury bond yields painted strong purple “NoGo” bars again this week and we saw a new lower low as the August low provided little support. GoNoGo Oscillator in the lower panel was rallying toward the zero line but has turned around and is falling once again toward oversold territory. Momentum is well and truly on the side of falling prices.

The Dollar’s “NoGo” Trend Survives Another Week

A strong purple “NoGo” bar returned at the end of the week after 4 straight weaker pink bars. Price failed to make a new higher high and rolled over mid week. Now, with a strong purple bar, we will look to see if price falls further. GoNoGo Oscillator is out of step with the trend which is interesting. Having broken out of a Max GoNoGo Squeeze into positive territory GoNoGo Oscillator is now at a value of 1. We will watch to see if this halts price’s move lower.

That’s a great question, because we saw some very nice gains and we’re now approaching all-time highs, especially on the Dow Jones ($INDU) and S&P 500 ($SPX). The more growth-oriented NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) has much more work to do. How much more strength is required to generate those breakouts? Well, let’s go to the charts:

Dow Jones:

S&P 500:

NASDAQ 100:

The Dow Jones and S&P 500 are clearly the better relative performers as they’re both within 1% of all-time highs that were recently recorded. The NASDAQ 100? Not so much. Not only is the NDX well off its all-time closing high, I can see a clear short-term downtrend line that needs to be broken before we can even consider a move to test all-time highs.

The RSIs on the Dow, SPX, and NDX are currently 60, 58, and 55, respectively. 60 tends to be resistance in short-term downtrends. So we’re at very key technical levels in terms of both price and technical indicators. But it’s not just these challenges that must be overcome. There are major seasonal hurdles directly in front of us as we get set to receive our first interest rate cut in what Fed Chief Powell said was a changing Fed policy (from hawkish to dovish).

The major seasonal challenges were discussed in my Weekly Market Recap on YouTube this weekend. Market “hurricane season” is active in the second half of September. To see just how bad the market has performed during this upcoming period, check out my latest video, “Major Challenge Ahead For S&P 500 In Late September.” Please help us build our YouTube community by hitting that “Like” button and “Subscribe” to our channel to get our latest YouTube videos timely.

Happy trading!

Tom

Whipsaws and losing trades are part of the process for trend-following strategies. These are expenses, and simply unavoidable. Over time, trend-following strategies will catch a few big trends and these profits will more than cover the expenses. Let’s look at signals and backtest results for the Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR).

The chart below shows the Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) with the Percent above MA indicator in the lower window. This indicator measures the percentage difference between the 5 and 200 day SMAs. I use +3% and -3% for signal thresholds to reduce whipsaws. A whipsaw (WS) is a short-lived signal that does not develop into a trend and results in loss. Thus, an uptrend signals with a cross above +3% and remains in force until a cross below -3%. On the chart below, the green lines show uptrend signals since 2020 and red lines show downtrend signals. The blue WS marks the whipsaws. Note that Percent above MA is one of 11 indicators in the TIP Indicator Edge Plugin.

CIBR started trading in July 2015 and did not have a 200-day SMA until April 2016. The chart above shows four bullish trend signals (green lines) since 2020, but we can backtest to 2016 for a more complete picture. There were just 7 trend signals since April 2016 with four producing winning trades and three resulting in losses. This includes the current open trade, which started with the trend signal in May 2023. The average gain for the winners was 43% and the average loss for the losers was 6%. Winners generate gross revenues, while whipsaws and losing trades are expenses. Trading is profitable as long as the profits are bigger than the expenses. This simple trend-following strategy generated a Compound Annual Return of 10.5% since 2016. Not bad for just 7 trades.

Stocks were hit hard the first week of September and came roaring back this past week. In our comprehensive weekly report and video (here), we featured a bullish continuation pattern in SPY, a contracting range in QQQ and bullish charts for ETFs related to fintech, cybersecurity, housing medical devices and wind energy. We also provided detailed analysis for seven big tech stocks (MSFT, META, QCOM, ARM, DELL, AVGO and NVDA). Click here to learn more and get two bonuses.

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