SIL Silver Miners

SIL was among the leaders yesterday and now is close to triggering this double-bottom bullish pattern. Staying above the 43-mark would target 47. That’s not a big move, but let’s remember that SIL is sporting bullish formations on its longer-term charts, too.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF GLOBAL X SILVER MINERS ETF (SIL).

SIL – Weekly

Firstly, the double-bottom pattern on this weekly log chart annotated in blue remains alive. This objective is up near 49.

Secondly, the area highlighted in green here is the same pattern pictured on the daily chart above. That area is sitting at the very top of a much bigger bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that extends all the way back to 2021. Thus, if the short-term breakout works, it will trigger this one, as well. That target is in the mid-70s…

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF GLOBAL X SILVER MINERS ETF (SIL).

SIL – Monthly

And that green pattern above is part of this MUCH larger, 13-year potential double bottom. We still have a while to go before this one is triggered, but it’s important to keep all of these in the back of our minds.

Anyone who trades or tracks SIL knows that short-term whipsaws are the norm. So, while these breakouts may not be clean, the bullish structures are clear. The bottom line is that if SIL continues to make higher highs and higher lows, the patterns will continue to work.

FIGURE 3. MONTHLY CHART OF GLOBAL X SILVER MINERS ETF (SIL).

USO Crude Oil

USO was among the leaders yesterday, but it’s still trying to bust through its 50-DMA, which has been the sticking point the last few weeks. If it can soon, USO could complete this potential bullish inverse H&S pattern. The upside target would be in the 77-78 range, and that would align with key short-term tops from the last year. First step, push above the 50-day line…

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF US OIL FUND (USO).

NVDA

The obvious question every time NVDA rallies is whether it’s too late to buy.  To get a true sense of the stock’s technical prospects, we need to view it across different charts and time frames.

First, here’s a view of the bullish flag pattern we cited on Tuesday (along with TSLA, GOOGL and META). Given the preceding staircase-like advance, the starting point of the flagpole is subjective. We’re using the early May low given that the stock avoided filling a gap from a few days earlier.

Regardless, the measured move counts to the 161 zone, which would be a new all-time high.

FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF NVIDIA CORP. (NVDA).

This second one is a daily chart that extends all the way back to 2010 and shows times when breaking below or above the 200-DMA led to strong, extended moves for the stock. From this angle, the recent 200-day breach didn’t last that long at all, and now NVDA has the chance to once again follow through after breaking back above it over the last few weeks.

FIGURE 6. LONGER-TERM DAILY CHART OF NVIDIA CORP. (NVDA).

Here’s a weekly, log chart going back to the 2022 low. NVDA has leveraged three major pattern breakouts since then to power the astounding rally the last two-plus years. With the stock last having made a new high last October and being net flat since last July, an eventual push back above the 150-zone could prompt big pattern-breakout number four.

FIGURE 7. WEEKLY CHART OF NVIDIA CORP. (NVDA).

Lastly, here are the biggest breakouts on this monthly chart that goes back over two decades. Again, looking at it from this viewpoint makes the last 11 months appear like a very small digestive phase, especially compared to the other three on the chart. Thus, the first step will be seeing how well NVDA can hold the opening gap. That’s important for today, but much more important for the days and weeks to come.

FIGURE 8. MONTHLY CHART OF NVIDIA CORP. (NVDA).

In this video, Joe analyzes which sectors to focus on when selecting new stocks. He demonstrates how to use the 18-period simple moving average (SMA) on monthly, weekly, and daily charts to identify the strongest stock patterns and the best timeframes to trade. He then provides chart analysis on the QQQ, IWM, and Bitcoin, before reviewing this week’s symbol requests submitted by viewers.

The video premiered on May 28, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

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In this must-see market update, Larry Williams returns with timely stock market analysis, trading insights, and macroeconomic forecasts. Discover what’s next for the Federal Reserve, interest rates, and inflation — and how it could impact top stocks like Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), and consumer staples (XLP).

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This video premiered on May 23, 2025.

Confused by mixed market signals? Follow along as Julius analyzes sector rotation, asset rotation, and global market trends using daily and weekly Relative Rotation Graphs (RRGs).

In this video, Julius puts the current sector rotation in perspective on both weekly and daily Relative Rotation Graphs (RRGs). He also examines asset rotation and the position of the U.S. markets in relation to international equities.

This video was originally published on May 27, 2025. Click on the icon above to view on our dedicated page for Julius.

Past videos from Julius can be found here.

#StayAlert, -Julius

Get the latest stock market update with Mary Ellen McGonagle. Learn key downside signals, how to manage pullbacks, and which earnings reports could impact the market next week.

In this week’s episode, Mary Ellen reviews where the markets currently stand and what to watch for to signal further downside. She also highlights ways to combat inevitable pullbacks and shares the key earnings reports that are likely to move the markets in the upcoming week.

This video originally premiered May 23, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

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Technology Back in Top-5

Last week’s market decline of 2-2.5% (depending on the index) has led to some notable shifts in sector performance and rankings.

This pullback, coming after a strong rally, is changing the order of highs and lows on the weekly chart — a particularly significant development, at least for me.

Let’s dive into the details and see what’s flying around in the market.

The composition of the top five sectors has seen some notable changes. Here’s how it stands now:

The big surprise here is Technology making its way into the top five, displacing Consumer Staples (now at #6). This shift suggests a gradual move from a more defensive positioning to sectors that are more cyclical and economically sensitive.

Another eye-catching move comes from Consumer Discretionary, jumping from #10 to #7 — a significant leap, albeit still in the bottom half of the ranking. Real Estate and Materials saw minor shifts, while Energy dropped to #10 and Health Care remains at #11.

1. (1) Industrials – (XLI)
2. (4) Communication Services – (XLC)*
3. (3) Utilities – (XLU)
4. (2) Financials – (XLF)*
5. (6) Technology – (XLK)*
6. (5) Consumer Staples – (XLP)*
7. (10) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)*
8. (7) Real-Estate – (XLRE)*
9. (8) Materials – (XLB)*
10. (9) Energy – (XLE)*
11. (11) Healthcare – (XLV)

Weekly/Daily RRG Analysis

The weekly Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) provides some interesting insights:

• Utilities maintains very high readings, but Consumer Staples (highest on RS-Ratio ranking) is likely to be pushed down by weak daily chart readings.
• Industrials continues to push further into the leading quadrant with stable momentum.
• Financials and Communication Services are inside the weakening quadrant but have room to curl back towards leading.
• Technology, despite having the second-lowest RS-Ratio reading, is rapidly improving with a strong RS-Momentum heading over recent weeks.

Remember, the ranking combines daily and weekly readings.

Technology’s high daily chart reading is propelling it into the top five, while Consumer Staples’ weak daily reading is pushing it out.

Industrials: The Leader Holding Strong

XLI is now pushing against its all-time high, just below 145. After two weeks of attempts, last week’s slight market decline confirms that this resistance level has worked.

We’re now looking for where any potential decline might stop and form a new low. The gap area from two weeks ago seems to be a good support area to watch.

The relative strength line breaking out of its consolidation formation continues to drag the RRG lines higher. XLI, for good reason, remains the strongest sector at the moment.

Communication Services: Stable Relative Uptrend

XLC is continuing its move higher with remarkable stability. The uptrend in the RS line is still valid, currently testing the lower boundary of the rising channel.

Due to the lack of upward relative momentum in recent weeks, both RRG lines are now pointing lower.

However, the RS-Ratio line remains well above 100, keeping the XLC tail on the right-hand side of the RRG.

Utilities: Testing Resistance

XLU is pushing against overhead resistance but has yet to manage a decisive break higher.

With defensive sectors under pressure, it’s questionable whether this breakout will happen in the short term.

The RS line versus SPY is dropping back into its trading range, unable to break away decisively. This drop is causing the RS-Momentum line to roll over and start pointing lower.

It’s the recent strength in relative strength that’s keeping Utilities inside the leading quadrant for now.

Financials: At a Crossroads

The Financial sector seems to be respecting the old rising support line as resistance, with the market dropping off that line last week and now trading around $50.

This move is affecting the relative strength line, which has returned to the lower boundary of the rising channel — a level that needs to hold to maintain a positive outlook for XLF.

The RS-Ratio line is stable around 102.50, high enough to keep Financials on the right-hand side of the graph.

The RS-Momentum line has just dropped below 100, positioning the XLF tail inside the weakening quadrant, but with enough room to curl back up before hitting lagging.

Technology: The Week’s Winner

XLK saw a significant jump two weeks ago and has since returned to test the old resistance area as support. If last week’s decline continues, there’s a bit more room to the downside — $220 seems to be a good level to watch for support, marking the bottom of the gap range from two weeks ago.

The jump has pushed the relative strength line above its falling resistance line, a good sign that seems to be breaking the relative downtrend in place since mid-last year.

This is changing the characteristics of the relative strength move for the Technology sector.

For now, it has only pushed the RS-Momentum line above 100, moving XLK into the improving quadrant on the weekly RRG, but it’s already starting to drag the RS-Ratio line higher.

Portfolio Performance

We’re clawing back some of the losses from recent weeks. The underperformance of almost 6% last week has now shrunk to 4.6%. Still behind the benchmark, but closing in again and narrowing the gap.

It’s a long-term game, so we keep pushing forward. So far, nothing out of the ordinary. Let’s wait and see whether we’ve seen the low in underperformance and how long it will take to return to SPY’s performance since inception.

#StayAlert –Julius

In order to invest or trade successfully, you have to have conviction. Conviction does not equal stubbornness. It’s very important to remain objective and occasionally question your conviction and adjust your strategy from time to time if signals warrant it. But I cannot trade personally if I believe there’s a 50/50 chance the market is going higher. That doubt will resonate with each and every swing in the market. I’ll chase at the wrong time and get whipsawed out of positions.

Instead, I evaluate those signals that work best for me – the same signals that have allowed me go against the grain and call significant market tops and bottoms over the past 5-7 years. Few were saying it was time to be long in early April, but I was quite clear. Topping signals were just as evident to me earlier this year, leading me to tell EarningsBeats.com members that I was 100% cash at the end of January. The technical confirmation of a market top occurred on Friday, February 21st. I published my belief of that confirmed market top in this same blog – again rather clearly:

You can click on this headline and read the whole story, if you’d like. After letting EB.com members know that I was fully committed on the long side in early April, because of bullish market maker manipulation, I have continued to track that market maker manipulation. Through Friday, it’s still telling me the same thing – BUY US STOCKS!

The Manipulation Continues

Listen, we’ve seen a massive run higher off that early-April low and profit taking and pullbacks will occur. That cannot deter us and should not be misconstrued as distribution ahead of a major market decline. In fact, there are a lot of technicians and market analysts talking about the big selling that’s taken place over the past week and how that will lead to further selling ahead. I completely disagree with this crew. We’ve seen almost zero selling or distribution in recent days. What we’ve seen are more gap downs, just like the ones that occurred after the March 13th low. Those opening and early morning selloffs saw subsequent buying throughout trading sessions. Check out the accumulation/distribution indicator on both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 below:

S&P 500

You can see the AD line take a bit of a hit during the true period of distribution in 2025. Currently, however, the AD line is very near its all-time high. Last week (since Monday’s close), the SPY lost 15.74, falling from 594.85 to Friday’s close at 579.11. That was roughly a 2.5% pullback, but here’s what’s interesting. The SPY had gap downs the past four trading days that totaled 13.65. Nearly all of last week’s drop occurred at the opening bell. There was little selling during the trading day. We track this manipulative behavior in our “2025 Key Stocks Manipulation” excel spreadsheet, which we update for our members every Monday morning, so our members can clearly see the manipulation taking place on the SPY, QQQ, IWM, and 11 individual stocks, including Mag 7 stocks and a few others. It’s independent research and has helped us completely ignore the bearish and biased media. They’re interested in viewership and clicks and will scare the heck out of everyone to achieve their own selfish, money-making goals. EarningsBeats.com is interested in helping folks navigate a landscape designed to misinform and mislead. We’re interested in making money, that’s it. Follow the charts, not the headlines.

NASDAQ 100

The AD line exploded higher on the NASDAQ 100, mostly because Mag 7 stocks were heavily accumulated during the early-April massacre. The same thing occurred in March 2020 during the pandemic, prior to these stocks skyrocketing later in 2020. Then we saw a repeat in 2022, before a massive explosion higher in 2023. Once again, we’re seeing Wall Street’s “rinse and repeat” strategy of effectively stealing shares from unsuspecting retail traders. And once again, these stocks have been flying again.

It’s up to us to learn these lessons and not make the same mistakes over and over again during cyclical bear markets. At EarningsBeats.com, we take advantage of these selloffs before they occur. First, we move to cash. Next, we watch the stocks tumble. Third, we buy back in much cheaper at the same time that Wall Street does. Doesn’t this sound like a much better strategy? Follow what Wall Street is buying, not what they’re saying.

This manipulation applies to an even greater extent to individual stocks. One of my favorite stocks has been ridiculously-manipulated in 2025. Over the past four trading days, while the S&P 500 has been under pressure, this stock has gapped down 3.13, but has moved 8 bucks higher during the trading day. It’s one of our 12 individual stocks that we track each week and showed the most manipulation last week. Its AD line is soaring again and its relative strength vs. its industry peers has exploded higher since the first week of March. Owning stocks like this help us significantly outperform the S&P 500.

I’m featuring this stock in our FREE EB Digest newsletter on Tuesday morning. To register for our newsletter and receive this stock Tuesday morning before the market opens, simply CLICK HERE and provide your name and email address. Again, it’s free, there’s no credit card required, and you may unsubscribe at any time.

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Happy trading!

Tom

After a very strong move in the week before this one, the markets chose to take a breather. They moved in a wide range but ended the week on a mildly negative note after rebounding from their low point of the week. While defending the key levels, the markets largely chose to stay within a defined range. The trading range remained reasonably wide; the Nifty oscillated in a 600.55-point range over the past five sessions. The volatility inched modestly higher; the India Vix rose 4.40% to 17.28 on a weekly basis. While keeping its head above crucial levels, the headline index closed with a net weekly loss of 166.65 points (-0.67).

The coming week will be an expiry week; we will have monthly derivatives expiry playing out as well. Going by the options data, the Nifty has created a trading range between 25100 and 24500 levels. The markets are likely to consolidate in this 600-point trading range. A directional bias would emerge only if the Nifty takes out 25100 on the upside convincingly or ends up violating the 24500 level. While the underlying trend stays intact, the markets are unlikely to develop any sustainable trend so long as they do not move past the 25100 level. While the markets stay in the defined range, it would be prudent to vigilantly guard profits at higher levels and rotate sectors effectively to remain invested in the relatively stronger pockets.

The coming week is likely to see the levels of 25000 and 25175 acting as potential resistance points. The supports come in lower at 24600 and 24450 levels.

The weekly RSI is at 60.14; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and stays above its signal line.

The pattern analysis shows that the Nifty has formed a trading range between 25100 on the higher side and 24500 on the lower side. This means that a directional bias would emerge only if Nifty moves past 25100 convincingly or violates the 24500 level. Until either of these two things happens, we will see the Nifty consolidating in this defined range. The Nifty has so far defended the pattern support level that also exists in the 24400-24500 zone.

Overall, the markets continue to remain in a challenging environment and face strong resistance near the 25100 level. So long as the Nifty stays below this level, it stays prone to corrective spikes, which may also keep volatility at slightly elevated levels as well. Given the current technical structure, it would be imperative that not only the sectors be rotated properly to stay invested in relatively stronger pockets, but all existing gains must also be vigilantly guarded at current levels by the investors. While continuing to keep leveraged exposures at modest levels, a cautious outlook is advised for the coming week.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks. 

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that while the Nifty Consumption, PSU Bank, Infrastructure, Banknifty, FMCG, and Commodities indices are in the leading quadrant, all are showing a distinct slowdown in their relative momentum against the broader Nifty 500 Index. While these groups are likely to show resilience and may relatively outperform, except for the Consumption Index, they are giving up in favor of other sectors that are showing renewed relative strength.

The Nifty Financial Services Index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant. The Nifty Metal and Services Sector Indices are also inside the weakening quadrant.

While the Nifty Pharma Index continues to languish inside the lagging quadrant, the IT Index, which is also inside the lagging quadrant, is showing sharp improvement in its relative momentum against the broader markets.

The Nifty Realty, Auto, Midcap 100, and Energy Sector Indices are inside the improving quadrant. These groups are expected to continue bettering their relative performance against the broader markets.

Important Note: RRG™ charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae