December non-farm payrolls data came in much hotter than expected. More jobs were added, the unemployment rate dipped slightly, and average hourly wages rose. Overall, it was a solid employment report, but the stock market didn’t like the news. Throw in the rise in inflation expectations to 3.3% in January as per the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, and you get a scenario that points to fewer interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2025.

Investors don’t want to hear that.

Equity futures fell in pre-market trading, and the broader stock market indexes continued in that direction in the first half hour of regular trading hours. Since then, it has been a choppy day, with the broader indexes closing the day lower.

The Weakness Spreads

Inflation and fewer interest rate cuts sent investors into selloff mode. The S&P 500 ($SPX) closed at 5,827.04, down 1.54%, which brings the index below its November lows (dashed blue line in the chart below). The index closed a tad bit above the support of its 100-day simple moving average (SMA).

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF THE S&P 500 INDEX. The index closed below its November lows and just a hair above its 100-day SMA. Market breadth is also weakening, as seen by the breadth indicators in the lower panels.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Market breadth indicators, such as the NYSE Advance-Decline Line, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average, and the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index, are trending lower. Also, notice the series of lower highs and slightly lower lows.

The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) is trading below its 50-day SMA and has a series of lower highs and lower lows (see chart below).

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF THE NASDAQ COMPOSITE. Lower highs and lower lows, a close below the 50-day SMA, and weakening breadth indicators indicate weakness in the tech-heavy index.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The Nasdaq Composite Bullish Percent Index ($BPCOMPQ), the percentage of Nasdaq stocks trading above their 200-day moving average, and the Nasdaq Advance-Decline Line are all declining, indicating weakening market breadth.

The S&P 600 Small Cap Index ($SML) was the worst performer, closing lower by over 2%. The chart below shows that the index closed at a key support level, the low of the September to November trading range. This makes it a greater than 10% decline from the November 25 high, which means the small-cap index is in correction territory.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF THE S&P 600 SMALL CAP INDEX. Small caps have suffered since December and are now at a key support level, which coincides with the low of a previous trading range.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Market breadth is weakening in the small-cap index, as indicated by the declining percentage of S&P 600 stocks trading above their 200-day MA and the decline in the Advance-Decline percentages.

Airlines Soar

It wasn’t bad for all industries. The Dow Jones US Airlines Index ($DJUSAR) was the top-performing StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) in the US Industries category. You can thank Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) for that. The company reported better-than-expected Q4 earnings and gave a positive 2025 outlook. American Airlines (AAL), United Airlines (UAL), and Alaska Air Group (ALK) rose in sympathy to Delta’s earnings report.

FIGURE 4. AIRLINE INDUSTRY LEADS IN THE TOP 10 US INDUSTRIES SCTR REPORT. Strong earnings from Delta Air Lines helped lift airline stocks. The Dow Jones US Airlines Index was the top performer in the US Industries Top 10 SCTR Report.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The Pressure of Rising Yields

Treasury yields moved sharply higher on the jobs report news, with the 10-Year Treasury yield reaching a high of 4.79% (see chart below). The last time yields were at this level was in October 2023.

FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF THE 10-YEAR US TREASURY YIELD. The 10-year yield rose sharply after the strong jobs data on Friday. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed holding rates at the current 2.45%–2.50% in their January 29 meeting is 97.30%.

The US dollar continues to strengthen, an indication the US economy remains strong relative to other countries. Precious metals and bitcoin traded higher, which could be because geopolitical risks could soon be a focal point.

There were many significant moves this week—equities fell, yields rose, and the US dollar continued to strengthen. Volatility is stirring, although, at below 20, it still indicates investors are somewhat complacent. A spike in the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) and a breakdown of some of the support levels the broader indexes are hanging on to, could put the US stock market into correction territory. Let’s see if the PPI and CPI move the needle next week.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

• S&P 500 down 1.94% for the week, at 5827.04.47, Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.86% for the week at 41,938.45; Nasdaq Composite down 2.34% for the week at 19,161.63
• $VIX up 21.14% for the week, closing at 19.54
• Best performing sector for the week: Energy
• Worst performing sector for the week: Real Estate
• Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB); Applovin Corp. (APP); Amer Sports, Inc. (AS); Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. (CRDO); Reddit Inc. (RDDT)

On the Radar Next Week

• December PPI
• December CPI
• December Retail Sales
• December Housing Starts
• Fed speeches from Barkin, Kashkari, Schmid, Goolsbee

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

S&P 5850 has been the most important “line in the sand” for stocks since the pullback from the 6000 level in November 2024.  With the SPX closing below that 5850 level on Friday, we see further corrective pressures with the 200-day moving average as a reasonable downside target.  Today we’ll break down a series of projection techniques that have helped us hone in on this potential area of support.

The Break of 5850 Completes a Head and Shoulders Top

One of the most widely-followed patterns in technical analysis, the fabled head and shoulders topping pattern, is formed by a major high surrounded by lower highs on each side.  After the S&P 500 established a lower high in December, we immediately started looking for confirmation of this bearish pattern.

To confirm a head and shoulders top, and initiate downside targets on a chart, the price needs to break through the “neckline” formed by the swing lows between the head and two shoulders.  While price pattern purists may advocate for a downward-sloping trendline to capture the intraday lows of the neckline, I’ve been focused on the price level of SPX 5850.  

As long as the S&P remained above that level of support, then the market could still be considered in a healthy bullish phase.  But a close below the 5850 level on Friday tells me that this corrective move may just be getting started.  Let’s consider some ways to identify a potential downside objective, first using the pattern itself.

Calculating a Minimum Downside Objective

As delineated in Edwards and Magee’s classic book on price patterns, you can use the height of the head and shoulders pattern to identify an initial downside objective.  Basically, take the distance from the top of the head to the neckline, and then subtract that value from the neckline at the breaking point.

Based on my measurements on the S&P 500 chart, this process yields a downside target of right around 5600.  It’s worth noting that Edwards and Magee considered this a “minimum downside objective”, implying that there certainly could be further deterioration after that point has been reached.

Now let’s consider some other technical analysis tools that could help us to validate this potential downside target.

A Confluence of Support Confirms Our Measurement

If we create a Fibonacci framework using the August 2024 low and the December 2024 high, we can see a 38.2% retracement around 5725, which lines up fairly well with the swing low from late October.  Perhaps this could serve as a short-term support level during the next downward phase?

But as I review the chart, I’m struck by the fact that the 50% retracement lines up almost perfectly with our price pattern objective.  Many early technical analysts, including the infamous W.D. Gann, favored the 50% retracement level as the most meaningful to watch.

You may also notice that the 200-day moving average is gently sloping higher, rapidly approaching our “confluence of support” around 5600.  Given the agreement between multiple technical indicators on this price point, we consider it the most likely downside target given this week’s breakdown.

I would also point that while I feel that identifying price targets can be a helpful exercise, as it gives you a framework with which to evaluate further price action, the most important signals usually come from the price itself.  How the S&P 500 would move between current levels and 5600 may tell us a great deal about the likelihood of finding support versus a more bearish scenario in the coming weeks.

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The composition of the top five sectors remains unchanged this week, despite an interrupted trading week. This stability comes against a backdrop of mixed signals and potential defensive rotation in the broader market. Let’s dive into the details and see how these sectors are holding up.

1. XLY, Consumer Discretionary
2. XLC, Communication Services
3. XLF, Financials
4. XLK, Information Technology
5. XLI, Industrials

Performance-wise, our equal-weight portfolio of these sectors is down 0.66% against SPY, which is down 0.44%. (Note: This analysis is based on data about an hour before market close on Friday, January 10th. Any significant shifts after this time will be addressed in a weekend update if necessary.)

Sector-by-Sector Analysis

Consumer Discretionary: Strong Despite Decline

Consumer Discretionary remains well above its breakout level, which took out the peak of 2021. As a result, the sector has some room to decline — say, back to the support area around 210 — without harming the uptrend.

This resilience keeps Consumer Discretionary in a very strong position despite the current price decline.

Communication Services: Promising but Precarious

The Communication Services sector is holding up from a relative perspective. While the relative strength line and RRG lines are still positive, the RS momentum line is stalling. This is causing the tail on the RRG to roll over, albeit still inside the leading quadrant.

The biggest concern for XLC comes from the price chart. After breaking out in November 2024, the sector is dropping back into the boundaries of its old rising channel.

In my experience, when price retreats into a rising channel after an upside breakout, it often tests the lower boundary.

For XLC, this could mean a drawback to around 90-92.5 — a support area marked by the rising support line of the old channel.

Financials: Breaking Down

XLF, after a few weeks of consolidation, now seems to be breaking a rising trend line.

It’s also close to taking out the previous low around 47.60. If we close below this level on the weekly chart, we’ll have a confirmed lower low and lower high in place for XLF — opening up the downside towards the first support level around 46.

Relative strength for XLF is dropping back below its previous resistance level, which should have acted as support but isn’t. This is causing the RRG lines to roll over, with XLF’s weekly tail close to crossing from leading into the weakening quadrant.

Technology: Stable but Facing Resistance

The technology sector has remained relatively stable, trading in a condensed area with high volatility over the last 2-3 months.

XLK hasn’t managed to break above the resistance just above 240, which is therefore becoming increasingly heavy. However, it’s still within its rising channel, with potential support of around 222.

XLK’s relative strength remains stable, slightly moving higher within its trading range, which is causing both RRG lines to move higher.

With RS ratio below 100 and RS momentum above 100, XLK’s tail is inside the improving quadrant with a positive heading — which continues to make it one of the better sectors.

Industrials: On the Edge

The industrial sector, still number 5 on our list, is testing the lower boundary of its rising channel. So far, it hasn’t broken down.

Relative strength is slowing down, continuing the trend from last week. The tail is still inside the weakening quadrant heading for lagging, but the price decline seems to be stalling at the current level.

Industrials is on the edge — a definitive break out of the rising channel would add to its weakness and lead to even weaker relative strength.

For now, though, it’s holding above support despite the loss of relative strength.

RRG Analysis: A Mixed Picture

It’s interesting to note that on the RRG for all sectors, our top five are located either in the leading quadrant (XLY, XLC, XLF), the weakening quadrant (XLI), or the improving quadrant (XLK).

All other sectors are inside the lagging quadrant, none with a positive heading.

This RRG isn’t the strongest I’ve ever seen, but it’s all a relative game — and that’s what this experiment is about.

We’re trying to beat the S&P 500, so we need to be in the sectors furthest to the right, preferably with a strong heading.

Daily RRG: Signs of Defensive Rotation

When we look at the daily RRG, the picture shifts.

While XLC, XLK, and XLY are still furthest to the right (albeit without the strongest headings), XLI and XLF are inside the improving quadrant, rapidly heading towards leading.

A quick analysis of other sectors shows Utilities (XLU), Health Care (XLV), and Energy (XLE) rapidly approaching the leading quadrant — indicating a more defensive rotation in the near term.

What’s Next?

The daily RRG’s defensive rotation is translating into a weaker chart for SPY. I’ll be creating a separate article focusing more on the development in the S&P 500 to keep it distinct from this “Best 5 Sectors” series. Be on the lookout for that additional analysis shortly.

#StayAlert and have a great weekend. –Julius

S&P 500 earnings are in for 2024 Q3, and here is our valuation analysis.

The following chart shows the normal value range of the S&P 500 Index, indicating where the S&P 500 would have to be in order to have an overvalued P/E of 20 (red line), a fairly valued P/E of 15 (blue line), or an undervalued P/E of 10 (green line). Annotations on the right side of the chart show where the range is projected to be based upon earnings estimates through 2025 Q3.

Historically, price has usually remained below the top of the normal value range (red line); however, since about 1998, it has not been uncommon for price to exceed normal overvalue levels, sometimes by a lot. The market has been mostly overvalued since 1992, and it has not been undervalued since 1984. We could say that this is the “new normal,” except that it isn’t normal by GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) standards.

We use GAAP earnings as the basis for our analysis. The table below shows earnings projections through September 2025. Keep in mind that the P/E estimates are calculated based upon the S&P 500 close as of December 31, 2024. They will change daily depending on where the market goes from here. It is notable that the P/E remains outside the normal range.

The following table shows where the bands are projected be, based upon earnings estimates through 2025 Q3.

This DecisionPoint chart keeps track of S&P 500 fundamentals, P/E and yield, and it is updated daily — not that you need to watch it that closely, but it is up-to-date when you need it.

CONCLUSION: The market is still very overvalued and the P/E is still well above the normal range. Earnings have ticked up and are projected to trend higher for the next four quarters. Being overvalued doesn’t require an immediate decline to bring valuation back within the normal range, but high valuation applies negative pressure to the market environment.

Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on StockCharts TV’s YouTube channel here!

(c) Copyright 2025 DecisionPoint.com

Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

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Bear Market Rules

The market sometimes struggles to find direction, as it digests mixed yet impactful economic data. Wednesday was one of those days. With US 10-Year Treasury yields rising and FOMC minutes highlighting inflation concerns, major indexes swung lower, then higher, before closing mixed: the Dow ($INDU) and S&P 500 ($SPX) edged up, while the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) ended in the red.

Amid the back-and-forth, there are several tools you can use to find stocks that may be of interest, depending on your angle of approach. I was interested in finding stocks that bucked market indecision, specifically those that notched all-time or 52-week highs.

Using the StockCharts New Highs tool, one of the Dashboard panels, I observed that Boston Scientific Corp (BSX) occupied the top spot.

FIGURE 1. NEW HIGHS TOOL. BSX defied the market’s turbulence, reaching a record high.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Though not one of the flashier stocks on Wall Street, you’ve likely heard of BSX, or you may be familiar with some of the products it manufactures. Still, it doesn’t hurt to get a snapshot of its technical and fundamental profile. Here you can use the StockCharts Symbol Summary tool for a quick analysis.

FIGURE 2. TOP SECTION OF THE SYMBOL SUMMARY PAGE FOR BSX. It may not be the “sexiest” stock, but it’s a “solid” one.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The stock has a sizable market cap and liquidity, making it tradable for those interested in the stock. If you scroll down, the summary, you’ll find that despite a few quarters of earnings misses, it has a solid history of topping revenue expectations. (The summary offers much more detailed technical and fundamental data, so I encourage you to explore it thoroughly.)

A closer look at BSX reveals its innovative product portfolio, strategic acquisitions, robust financials, strong market position, and favorable analyst expectations—all pointing to a “solid” company with promising growth potential.

Let’s look at a weekly chart for a big-picture view of its historical price action.

FIGURE 3. WEEKLY CHART OF BSX. The stock has outperformed the healthcare sector (XLV) and the S&P 500 since 2022.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

BSX’s solid uptrend began toward the end of 2022. It began outpacing the S&P 500 earlier that year and the Health Care sector (using the Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF XLV) later that summer. Its relative price performance shows that it’s outperforming the sector by over 107% and the broader market by roughly 80%.

Notice that price surge in the last bar? That was due to a major acquisition (it purchased Bolt Medical) and a competitor’s, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), product suspension benefiting BSX. As far as fundamental projections are concerned, they vary, as with most stocks. Nevertheless, for those interested in adding BSX stock to your portfolio, it’s best to decide on a favorable entry point. For that, you need to look at the daily chart.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF BSX. Note the runaway gap that will likely get filled, signaling a potential buying opportunity.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The stock has been experiencing an extended period. Note that the 50-, 100-, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages are all in “full-sail,” indicating the strength of BSX’s years-long uptrend.

BSX’s news-driven runaway gap is likely to be filled as bullish sentiment moderates. Plus, the Money Flow Index (MFI), which considers volume and momentum, has been declining from “overbought” levels (top panel), showing a slight bearish divergence that adds to the case for a near-term pullback.

As price pulls back, the 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs should provide clear support levels; each EMA presenting a potential entry point for those looking to go long.

The chart also plots a Bullish Percent Index (BPI) for the healthcare sector ($BPHEAL) in the bottom panel. Why plot this when BSX is the clear outlier and outperformer? You will want to monitor breadth to assess the overall sector context regardless of BSX’s performance. For instance, if the sector is undergoing a bullish rotation, such a tide tends to lift most stocks within that sector, including BSX.

In the case above, the healthcare BPI shows that the sector has risen above “oversold” levels (the 30% line) as 42% of stocks in the sector are exhibiting P&F buy signals. BPI favors the bulls when the line exceeds 50%. So, while BSX is outperforming the sector, the proverbial tides appear to be turning in BSX’s favor.

Action Steps

If you’re looking to add BSX to your portfolio, consider the following action steps:

• Add BSX to your ChartLists to monitor the stock, using the indicators suggested above.
• Monitor BSX’s price action in light of any developments that may affect it, as the gap and surge in price were heavily news-driven.
• Look to the EMAs as potential support levels and entry points.
• Keep an eye on market breadth to assess how sector performance may (or may not) affect the stock’s performance in the near-to-intermediate term.

At the Close

StockCharts’ New Highs Tool is an invaluable resource for spotting standout stocks. In the case above, the tool highlighted BSX as a stock that defied broader market uncertainty, providing a strong starting point for deeper analysis.

While healthcare may not currently rank among the most bullish sectors, BSX has been bucking this trend, rising steadily for the last two and a half years. Its outperformance — driven by acquisitions and competitor setbacks — suggests it could continue to grow, making it a compelling candidate for investment. Additionally, if the healthcare sector eventually turns bullish, it may provide an opportunity to jump into the sector during the early stages of a bullish rotation.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The 10-Year Treasury Yield has gone up a full percentage point, from a low of 3.6% in September 2024 to a level of 4.6% this week.  What does this rapid rise in interest rates mean for your portfolio? 

Let’s look at the shape of the yield curve by comparing multiple maturities, review how recent moves on the yield curve relate to previous recessionary periods, and analyze the most important charts to gauge a potential impact.

Higher Rates Mean Bad News for Borrowers

The chart of the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) has effectively been in a wide trading range since mid-2023.  The 10-Year has fluctuated between lows around 3.6-3.8% and highs in the 4.7-5.0% range.  As we’re now seeing a 4.7% yield on the 10-Year, we could be setting up for a retest of the 2023 high around 5.0%.

Higher rates can definitely put pressure on industry groups like homebuilders, because this move in the 10-Year means new home buyers can expect much higher mortgage payments.  But in terms of broad market implications, the shape of the yield curve could have even more significance in the coming months.

The bottom two panels show the spread between the 10-year point on the yield curve compared to two other maturities: the 3-month and 2-year points.  In recent years, we have experienced an inverted yield curve, where the short-term yields are higher than long-term yields.  But with the Fed lowering short-term rates, and long-term rates turning back higher, we once again have a normal shaped yield curve.

The Yield Curve Is No Longer Inverted- So What?

Investors love to debate whether a recession is likely, because that confirms that the economy is no longer growing as it usually does.  But given the lag in economic data, investors can actually look at the shape of the yield curve to determine if conditions are present that suggest a recessionary period is coming.

Here we’re taking the 2-year vs. 10-year points on the yield curve, and plotting that spread back to 1985.  I’ve placed a red vertical line where the yield curve turned back to a normal shape after being inverted, and I’ve also included orange shaded areas which represent recessionary periods.

You may notice that over the last 40 years, every time we’ve had an inverted yield curve, and then the spread has turned back positive, we’ve seen a recession soon afterwards.  You may also notice that the performance of the S&P 500 (bottom panel) confirms that the yield curve moving back to a normal shape usually happens just before a bear market begins.

While the long-term implications of a normal shaped yield curve are bullish, as they imply optimism about future economic growth, the reality is that the short-term environment for stocks is usually fairly unstable.

Market Trend Is What Matters Most

So what do we do given this bearish headwind for stocks going into 2025?  I would argue that now, more than ever, it pays to follow the trend.  As long as the medium-term and long-term trends in the S&P 500 remain constructive, then I’ll want to follow that uptrend until proven otherwise.

My Market Trend Model is designed to track the trend in the S&P 500 on three time frames: short-term (a couple days to a couple weeks), medium-term (a couple months), and long-term (over a year).  As of mid-December, the short-term model turned bearish for the S&P 500.  The medium-term and long-term models remain bullish through last Friday.

I consider the medium-term trend to be the most important as it serves as my main “risk on/risk off” measure.  When the model is bullish, that tells me to look for long ideas and take on additional risk.  When the model is bearish, that tells me to focus more on capital preservation than capital growth.

The short-term model turned negative five times in 2024, but the medium-term model remained bullish in all five cases.  This helped me understand that those were brief pullbacks within a longer uptrend phase.  If and when the medium-term model turns negative, you’ll hear me take on a much more cautious tone on my market recap show, as I’ll be looking for opportunities to take risk off the table.

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

In this exclusive StockCharts video, Julius takes a look at what he recently called “The Best Five Sectors” on a relative rotation graph side-by-side with their price charts. He then takes an in-depth at Consumer Discretionary, and shares some interesting stocks within, including AMZN, ULTA, and more.

This video was originally published on January 8, 2025. Click on the icon above to view on our dedicated page for Julius.

Past videos from Julius can be found here.

#StayAlert, -Julius

In this exclusive StockCharts video, Joe shares how to identify the best entry point by using two timeframes, Moving Averages, MACD and ADX. He shows two different examples of when to pull the trigger. Joe highlights weakness in the Large Cap universe, and finally goes through the symbol requests that came through this week, including NVDA, ABNB, and more.

This video was originally published on January 8, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

What a difference a day makes! December ISM Services data suggests the service sector remains strong. The JOLTS report showed there were 8.09 million job openings in November — that’s well above the 7.7 million that was expected. US economic growth is strong, as is the labor market. Stocks sold off on the news and for the rest of the trading day. Tuesday’s economic data brought back thoughts of the possibility of the Fed dialing back on its rate cuts in 2025.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases its minutes on Wednesday at 2:00 PM. Investors will be listening for any hawkish signals from the Fed. Expect some market action on Wednesday afternoon. The stock market is closed on Thursday in honor of former President Jimmy Carter. On Friday, we have the December Non-Farm Payrolls, so don’t be surprised if volatility climbs higher this week.

The Return of the Inflation Narrative

While stocks sold off on inflation and labor concerns, the bond market saw a lot of excitement. Treasury yields rose on the news with the 10-year yields closing at 4.68%. It’s within spitting distance of its 52-week high of 4.737. If it gets there, things could get worse for stocks.

They were bad enough on Tuesday. All broader indexes closed lower with the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) closing 1.89% lower. The daily chart of the Nasdaq (see below) doesn’t paint a pretty picture.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF NASDAQ COMPOSITE. The series of lower highs should be an alert that the index is pulling back.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The Nasdaq Composite is getting close to its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), and a break below it would be cause for concern. It would be even more concerning if the break coincides with a declining Nasdaq Advance-Decline Issues (lower panel).

The Nasdaq has crossed below its 50-day SMA in the past and recovered. The recoveries presented opportunities to accumulate long positions in Nasdaq stocks. A similar scenario could play out this time, but Mark Twain’s quote, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes” keeps popping up. What will the rhyme be this time?

Energy and Health Care

Overall, it was a pretty grim day for stocks. Nine of the 11 S&P sectors closed lower; Energy and Health Care were the only two that closed higher. However, the charts of the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that represent these sectors — Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) and Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) — don’t display a bullish trend. The Bullish Percent Index (BPI) for these sectors is below 50, with the S&P Healthcare Sector BPI being the more favorable of the two at 39.39 (see chart below).

FIGURE 2. ENERGY AND HEALTH CARE SECTORS. Even though Energy and Health Care were the best performing sectors on Tuesday, their charts aren’t exhibiting bullish characteristics.Chart source: StockChartsACP. For educational purposes.

The best-performing S&P 500 stock on Tuesday was Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) with an 11.65% rise. Moderna is developing a vaccine for bird flu, which helped propel the stock price. The Market Movers panel on Your Dashboard shows a handful of health care and energy stocks in the S&P 500, %Up category.

Even though the Energy or Health Care sector charts are far from bullish, it’s worth keeping an eye on them. If a bullish trend takes shape while other sectors, such as Technology and Consumer Discretionary, turn bearish, it may be worth allocating a portion of your portfolio to the bullish-performing sectors.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this video, after a general market and sectors review, Tony shares the latest OptionsPlay trade ideas, including bullish and bearish ideas for GOOGL, NVDA, DIS, SHOP, and many more. He analyzes sector rotation with RRGs, and takes a look at key earnings.

This video premiered on January 7, 2025.