In this insightful session, Grayson introduces the Traffic Light indicator, a unique tool available exclusively on the Advanced Charting Platform (ACP). Amidst the current volatility of the S&P 500, Grayson demonstrates how this indicator can help investors clarify trend directions and make more confident decisions.

This video originally premiered on May 9, 2025. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.

Stocks plunged into early April and surged into early May, suggesting that a “V” reversal is in the making. There are two parts to the V reversal. First, there is the V, which is the plunge and the rebound. Second, there is the breakout move that completes the reversal. SPY fulfilled the V part, but has yet to actually reverse the long-term downtrend.

The chart below shows SPY falling 20% from late February to early April and then surging some 14% into early May. This move created the V as SPY nears the 200-day SMA and the March support break. The blue-pink shading marks broken support turned resistance in the 575-580 area. We also have the 200-day SMA marking resistance here. Thus, SPY is clearly at a moment of truth. A push through 580 would break the 200-day SMA and negate the March breakdown. This would be bullish price action.  

There is more to a V reversal than price action. TrendInvestorPro went back and studied four V reversals over the last 11 years. They all feature capitulation and a sharp V-shaped recovery. However, it is upside participation that holds the key to moving from bear market to bull market. We need to see a significant increase in upside participation and key breadth indicators cross specific thresholds. These indicators include the percentage of stocks above their 200 and 150 day SMAs, and High-Low Percent.

This week TrendInvestorPro produced a detailed report and video analyzing the prior V reversals and the key participation levels to watch. Among other ETFs, this week’s reports featured the Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR), the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF), the Utilities SPDR (XLU) Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), Gold SPDR (GLD) and DB Agriculture ETF (DBA). Click here to take a trial and gain full access.

/////////////////////////////////////////

Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) is back in the spotlight, wrestling with its four-year highs and turning heads on Wall Street. It debuted in 2021 as an IPO darling, capturing the imagination of young Gen Z traders before its dramatic fall as a meme stock fueled by crypto and an unhealthy dose of FOMO.

Now, with year-to-date gains outpacing the S&P 500 ($SPX), the former disruptor is looking to claim its space as a serious contender rather than a speculative fad.

Robinhood Stock’s Price Action: Breaking Out or Topping Out?

If you’ve been checking the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) Reports, you’ve probably noticed the stock popping up on the Large Cap Top 10 list.

FIGURE 1. SCTR REPORT LARGE CAP TOP 10. Robinhood is second from the top.

If you’re eyeing HOOD, you’re likely asking two key questions: How is it performing relative to its Financials sector peers, and how strong is the sector itself in terms of market breadth? Just as important, you’ll want a longer-term view: How has the stock held up over time, both on its own and compared to the broader S&P 500?

Let’s tackle all those questions in one shot.

Financial Sector Breadth Shows Bullish Tailwinds for HOOD

The chart below, which tracks the Financial Sector Bullish Percent Index, offers a quick read on sector strength and market positioning.

NOTE: The BPI spans three years.

FIGURE 2. FINANCIAL SECTOR BPI. Market breadth and comparative price performance look exceedingly bullish.

From a breadth perspective, the Financial sector looks bullish, bordering on overbought, with over 82% of the stocks within the sector triggering Point & Figure Buy Signals, according to its Bullish Percent Index (BPI) reading. Meanwhile, HOOD is crushing it on a 3-year relative basis—outperforming its sector by 250% and the S&P 500 by nearly 300%.

This paints a bullish picture. But before jumping to conclusions, let’s take a step back and look at HOOD’s price history, going back to when it IPO’d in 2021.

From Meme Craze to Measured Recovery

Check out the weekly chart below.

FIGURE 3. WEEKLY CHART OF HOOD. It’s above the 10-week and 40-week SMAs, but it has quite a distance to go before testing its yearly high.

You don’t need annotations to spot where HOOD’s meme-stock frenzy peaked and where the crash began, fueled by a sharp drop in retail trading activity, crypto market volatility, and intensifying regulatory pressure.

After basing for two years, HOOD began picking up steam in 2024. Its improving technical strength is reflected in the sharp spike of its SCTR, breaking above the 90 line. Fundamentally, HOOD began to recover as it started raking in profits, expanding its product lineup, and reigniting its user growth.

It’s trading above its 10-week and 40-week simple moving average (SMA), which is equivalent to a 50-day and 200-day SMA, respectively. Still, it has quite a way to go before testing its high of $66.90.

Short-Term Trading Setup

If you’re looking to buy HOOD, you’ll need to zoom in to find favorable entry points. Let’s switch over to a daily chart.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF HOOD. Support levels are clear and accumulation looks promising.

HOOD was in an intermediate-term downtrend starting in early February, where it peaked at $66.90, all the way down to the early part of April, where it bottomed sharply at around $29. HOOD quickly recovered, breaking above $50 (a local swing high) to $54, where it is now (at the time of writing).

Can HOOD Hold Its Gains or Is Consolidation Coming?

The Stochastic Oscillator warns that HOOD may be overbought and due for a pullback. Here are a couple of scenarios to consider, and note that the Ichimoku Cloud visually provides a wider range of potential support:

• Watch for support at $46 or $39, both recent swing lows.
• If it stalls between those levels, it could signal a failed breakout and continued consolidation until a new catalyst emerges.
• If it drops below $39, the next key level is at $29, but be a little cautious at that point, as such a deep retracement may indicate weakening momentum, sentiment, and fundamental weakness.

On the bullish side of things, the Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL), currently well above the price, is indicating strong accumulation, suggesting that demand is outpacing supply—which, if it continues, can drive prices higher.

At the Close

Robinhood’s stock price is showing real signs of strength, not just on a chart, but in its fundamentals. With relative performance beating its sector and the S&P 500, and strong accumulation under the surface, HOOD’s comeback narrative is gaining technical validation. But with overbought signals flashing and key support levels in play, the next move may depend on whether bulls defend the breakout, or if the stock consolidates further while waiting for its next catalyst.

In either case, keep a close eye on volume, momentum shifts, and those support zones. HOOD may still have more room to run, but timing your entry could make all the difference.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The stock market’s action on Wednesday was a bit like trying to pick a dinner spot with friends—lots of back and forth, but no real direction.

The market started out higher and went up and down without much of a directional bias until the Fed made its expected interest rate decision and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference. Stock prices dipped lower, but right before the close, another headline moving event surfaced: President Trump announced the rollback of some chip-related restrictions. This news gave the market a boost into the close.

Here’s how the broader indexes closed:

• The Dow Industrials ($INDU) finished up 0.70%.
• The S&P 500 ($SPX) rose 0.43%.
• The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) added 0.27%.

Tech Leads, but Alphabet Takes a Hit

In terms of sector performance, Technology came out on top, followed by Consumer Discretionary and Health Care. On the flip side, Real Estate, Communication Services, and Materials were the laggards.

The main reason behind the stumble in Communication Services was Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL), which dropped by a whopping 7.26%. Why the selloff? An Alphabet exec testified that Google was losing search traffic to AI tools.

The StockCharts’ S&P 500 MarketCarpet (below) reflects Wednesday’s price action.

FIGURE 1. STOCKCHARTS MARKETCARPETS FOR MAY 7, 2025. It was mostly green with some pockets of red.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Overall, Wednesday’s performance is leaning more positive than negative, but is it enough to break through critical resistance levels?

Resistance Levels in the S&P 500

To get a clearer picture, we need to check out the daily chart of the S&P 500 ($SPX).

FIGURE 2. S&P 500 FACING A LOT OF HEADWINDS. THE 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is a resistance level the index is struggling to break above.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The S&P 500 is sandwiched between its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the February high to April low show that the 61.8% retracement level is proving to be a stubborn ceiling. Add to that the downward-sloping 50-day SMA, and the market may have a tough time moving higher. To leave the downtrend in the rearview mirror, the S&P 500 would have to break above its 200-day SMA with the necessary follow-through to keep it above that level. So far, the price action suggests that the S&P 500 will face headwinds to get to that stage.

News Moves Markets, Like the Chip Surprise Today

Remember, the market’s price action is like riding a rollercoaster powered by headlines. This can sometimes send technical analysis into a disarray.

Take, for example, today’s news about lifting the chip restrictions, which sent semiconductor stocks higher. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) jumped 2.05% (see chart below).

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF SMH. Will the semiconductor ETF be able to break out above its May 2 high?Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Like the chart of the S&P 500, SMH needs to work harder at breaking its downtrend. The one ray of hope is that Wednesday’s move reached the May 2 high. The downside: it wasn’t able to break above it. This shows investors are cautious about semiconductors and the overall equity market.

Volatility Says It All

The caution among investors can be seen clearly in the chart of the S&P 500 vs the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX).

FIGURE 4. VIX VS. S&P 500. Even though the VIX pulled back from its April peak, it’s still above average.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

What’s interesting is that while the VIX fell when the S&P 500 rose from mid-April, the VIX hasn’t dropped to its average level of 19. It’s still trading above it, which is another point that increases the probability of further downside in equities.

The Bottom Line

There is a lot going on: geopolitical tensions, trade deal updates, policy shifts. Any of these can jolt the market in either direction.

It was encouraging to see tech stocks and semiconductors bounce on Wednesday, but that doesn’t mean we’re headed back to the days of growth stock leadership. If you’re an investor, especially one managing retirement money or nearing retirement, the best approach is to be patient. We’re not out of the woods yet.

As always, stay alert and stick with your investment plan.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this video, Joe shares how to trade MACD signals using multiple timeframes, and how to spot stock market pullback setups that can help to pinpoint a great entry off a low. He then reviews sector performance to identify market leadership, covers key chart patterns, and discusses a looming bearish signal on QQQ and IWM. The video wraps with technical analysis on popular viewer-submitted stock symbols, including REAL, PSTG, and more.

The video premiered on May 7, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

With all eyes and ears on this week’s Fed meeting, it’s worth taking a big step back to reflect on conditions related to momentum, breadth, and leadership.  And while the rally of the early April lows has been significant, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 now face considerable resistance at the 200-day moving average.

With that backdrop in mind, here are three charts we’re watching that have not yet signalled an “all clear” for risk assets.

Our Market Trend Model Remains Medium-Term Bearish

Long-time market newsletter author Paul Montgomery used to point out that the most bullish thing the market can do is go up.  The way we make this simple assessment of market trend is using our Market Trend Model.  

As of last Friday’s close, our Market Trend Model shows a short-term bullish signal given the strength off the early April low.  The medium-term model, however, remains bearish as the recent bounce is still defined as a bear market rally.  If the S&P 500 can push above its own 200-day moving average, that would likely be enough to move the medium-term model to the bullish side for the first time since October 2023.

Over the years, I’ve found the Market Trend Model to be a fantastic way of separating the short-term “flickering ticks” of day-to-day market movements from the more significant shifts in sentiment from bullish to bearish.  And by staying on the right side of this model, I’ve been able to capture most of the market upside, and more importantly, avoid disastrous bear phases!

Don’t miss our daily market recap show, CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT.  We’ll track how these charts evolve through the course of the week, highlight key stocks on the move, and boil down the most important market themes from a technical perspective.  Join us live every trading day at 5pm ET, or catch the replay on our YouTube channel!

Will Key Stocks Breakout Above the 200-Day?

While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are testing their own 200-day moving averages, many S&P 500 members are in a very similar position.  At the April 2025 market low, less than 10% of the S&P 500 stocks were above their 50-day moving average.  That reading has reached almost 60% this week as literally half of the S&P 500 members have regained this short-term moving average.

While the bottom panel shows the percent of stocks above the 50-day moving average, the next panel up displays the percent of S&P 500 members above their 200-day moving average.  While this has also increased over the last month, it still remains below 50%.  

The countertrend rally in March 2025 saw this indicator go up to the 50% and then reverse lower, providing a warning sign of further lows to come.  Will we see a similar stall in this indicator in May 2025?  If so, that could indicate a retest of the April low.  On the other hand, if both of these gauges push above 50%, then investors should brace for much further upside for the S&P 500.

Offense Needs to Dominate Defense

Leadership themes could become incredibly important, as many leading growth stocks remain in a position of technical weakness.  And unless the top growth stocks go into full rally mode, it’s hard to imagine meaningful upside for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.  One way to consider this relationship is to chart the ratio between Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples.

The top panel shows the cap-weighted sector ETFs, and the bottom panel shows the same ratio using equal-weighted sector ETFs.  Both of these ratios made a major peak in Q1 2025, and both of them trended lower into a mid-April low.  Over the last three weeks, we’ve seen a dramatic upside reversal in these offense-defense rations, indicating a rotation from defensive to offensive positioning.

Quite simply, I don’t see the major averages pushing higher unless these ratios continue to gain ground to the upside.  We have observed strength in some Consumer Staples names, from Kroger (KR) to Coca Cola (KO), but it would take charts like Amazon (AMZN) making a significant move higher to give the S&P 500 any real chance of pushing above its own 200-day moving average.  This ratio moving higher would confirm that “things you want” are outperforming “things you need”, and that has bullish implications for risk assets.

Investors are facing more uncertainty than ever as we brace for the latest Fed announcement, the newest tariff headline, and mixed results in the form of economic indicators.  By watching charts like these, and keeping a watchful eye on the updated Market Summary page, StockCharts users can approach these markets with confidence.

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The S&P 500 ($SPX) wrapped up Tuesday just below its intra-day midpoint and posted one of the narrowest ranges we’ve seen in the past two months. That’s a clear sign traders are reluctant to take major bets ahead of Wednesday’s 2:00 PM ET Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision.

And honestly, this caution makes sense.

If we look back at how the stock market has reacted following the first two FOMC meetings of 2025, there has been a mix of hesitation and sharp moves. Below is an updated chart marking each FOMC date since 2024 alongside the S&P 500. After the late January meeting, the S&P 500 zig-zagged to marginal new highs over the next two weeks before the first of two sharp down legs unfolded.

FIGURE 1. FOMC DATES SINCE 2024.

Coincidence or not, the S&P 500 is trading at nearly the same price level now, six weeks later, as it was back then. So, how close are today’s prices compared to the close on March 18, the day before the last Fed meeting?

This close (see chart below):

FIGURE 2. THE S&P 500 IS TRADING VERY CLOSE TO LAST FOMC MEETING LEVELS.

The difference is that the index has been rallying for four weeks, starting from the pivot low on April 7, a month ago today. In March, the S&P 500 was trying to bounce after topping four weeks earlier on February 19. That bounce continued for a few more days before dominant down-trending price action took over.

But over the last few weeks, the dominant trend is definitely higher. So the big question now is: can this mini uptrend resume after this pause?

A Short-Term Setup to Watch

A few days ago, the 14-period relative strength index (RSI) on the two-hour chart grazed the 70-overbought level for the first time since late January (see chart below). Yes, it took a nearly 18% rally in a very short time frame for it to finally happen, but remember, the indicator was coming off its lowest level since the COVID lows. Modest 3–5% pops were enough to trigger overbought readings for much of 2024. Not this time.

As you know, overbought conditions never persist, especially in very short time frames like this. However, if this rally has anything left in the tank, we’ll see the indicator hit overbought again soon. That may not happen in the next day or two, but if the market reacts negatively to today’s news, but then a bid returns soon after, it could keep some of the bullish patterns we’ve been tracking in play. That’s just one scenario, but one we’ll be closely watching.

FIGURE 3. TWO-HOUR CHART OF THE S&P 500.

Bullish Patterns Still Intact

There are two bullish pattern breakouts still in play on the S&P 500 chart:

• Inverse Head and Shoulders
• Cup With Handle

And barring a very extreme and negative reaction, the patterns will stay alive today, as well.

FIGURE 4. INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDERS AND CUP WITH HANDLE PATTERNS.

FIGURE 5. INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN IN THE S&P 500.

FIGURE 6. CUP WITH HANDLE PATTERN IN THE S&P 500.

A Bright Spot: Utilities

The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) was the first sector ETF (and one of the first of all the ETFs we track) to notch a new 50-day high, which it hit on Tuesday. On the weekly chart, it’s clear the ETF is now trying to leverage a multi-month bottoming formation

This is especially notable because the formation has developed above two bullish pattern breakouts from 2024. Ironically, XLU’s first major breakout of 2024 happened around this time last year (late April), which set the stage for an extremely strong run, at least through late November.

The current snapback is important to watch, given how well XLU has recently capitalized on bullish breakouts. Some upside follow-through from here would also put the former highs back in the crosshairs.

FIGURE 7. WEEKLY CHART OF UTILITIES SELECT SECTOR SPDR (XLU).

Invesco Solar (TAN) Still Has Work to Do

Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) has been rallying since the April lows, much like nearly every ETF we track. On the daily chart, it’s been trying to leverage a bullish cup and handle pattern, a formation we’ve also seen emerge in many other areas. It’s coming off an extremely oversold condition, with its 14-week RSI undercutting 30 for just the third time since 2021. So, TAN could see some additional upside from here. 

But the ETF will need to do much more to materially improve its long-term technical picture. Nearly every rally has stalled near the key weekly moving averages, all of which continue to slope lower. Selling strength in TAN has been a highly effective strategy since it peaked in early 2021.

FIGURE 8. WEEKLY CHART OF INVESCO SOLAR ETF (TAN).

Bitcoin Holding Up

Bitcoin has held its breakout from two weeks ago quite well so far. The next upside target remains near 103k. Again, regardless of whether or not you follow crypto, seeing the bid continue is a bullish sign for risk appetite across different asset classes, especially equities.

Fun fact: Bitcoin topped a few weeks before the SPX so it can be a useful leading indicator.

FIGURE 9. BITCOIN BREAKS OUT.

Ethereum Playing Catch-Up

While Ethereum’s extreme relative weakness vs. Bitcoin has continued, it too has rallied over the last few weeks. It’s now close to breaking out from a cup with handle formation. At the same time, it’s testing its now flat 50-day moving average.

The combination of a bullish breakout and a move through the 50-day moving average produced a very strong follow-through rally in November, something Ethereum will try to replicate.

FIGURE 10. ETHEREUM BREAKS ABOVE 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGE.

Final Thoughts

As we head into the Fed decision, we’re seeing a lot of cautious optimism in the charts. Key bullish patterns are still holding, sectors like Utilities are showing strength, and crypto is flashing green.

The next few sessions will be important. If we get a knee-jerk reaction to the Fed, but buyers step in quickly it could set the stage for the next leg higher in this rally.

Stay alert.

Frank Cappelleri is the founder and president of CappThesis, an independent technical analysis newsletter firm. Previously, Frank spent 25 years on Wall Street, working for Instinet, the equity arm of Nomura and Smith Barney. Frank’s various roles included being an equity sales trader, technical analyst, research sales specialist and desk strategist. Frank holds the CFA and CMT designations and is a CNBC contributor.

https://cappthesis.com

https://www.youtube.com/@cappthesis

https://twitter.com/FrankCappelleri/

https://www.linkedin.com/in/frank-cappelleri-cfa-cmt-a319483/

Trump’s latest Hollywood “hit” isn’t the kind you stream.

Threatening to slap a 100% tariff on films produced in foreign countries, the president’s announcement rattled several media stocks like Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), Walt Disney Co. (DIS), and others.

What makes the whole thing complicated is this:

• No clear-cut definition of “foreign”: Many “American” films are shot abroad with foreign crews, locations, and studios.
• Tax breaks abroad: Studios rely on international incentives to cut costs—think Marvel in the UK or Netflix in Korea (Squid Game).
• Global revenues: Delivering content overseas boosts subscriptions.
• Disruption to current projects: In-progress shoots and cross-border production deals could face sudden delays, cancellations, or financial penalties.
• And last but not least, retaliation risk. Countries may hit back with tariffs or restrictions on U.S. films, hurting global revenues.

The result? A policy that aims to protect American film could end up undercutting it from every angle.

Which Media Stocks Are Still Worth Holding?

With Trump’s proposed 100% tariff and the looming threat of retaliation, you’re probably wondering: Which media stocks are still investable—and which ones are caught in the crossfire?

Let’s focus on the platforms that most Americans stream at home.

• Netflix (NFLX) is the most exposed to Trump’s tariffs due to its heavy investment in international productions.
• Disney (DIS) is most vulnerable both ways—to the U.S. tariff and international retaliation—in that over 60% of its box office revenue is international; plus, it operates theme parks in China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Europe.
• Roku (ROKU) appears to be the least exposed, as it’s a content aggregator and not a producer. The bulk of its revenue comes from advertising, subscriptions, and platform fees, not from producing or exporting content.

NOTE: I’m excluding Amazon (AMZN) in favor of pure-play media entertainment stocks. While Amazon is not as exposed to foreign film tariffs, it’s exposed to the other tariffs.

First, how are these stocks performing relative to each other and the broader market (S&P 500)?

FIGURE 1. PERFCHARTS DISPLAYING THE RELATIVE PERFORMANCE OF ALL THREE STOCKS VS THE S&P. Netflix is far outpacing its two media peers.

Among these three, which stocks are currently the most investable—that is, which ones are showing favorable price action that could support a viable trading setup?

Netflix Technical Analysis: Uptrend Intact, But Caution Ahead

Let’s start with NFLX—the company most fundamentally exposed to the proposed tariffs on foreign-made films. Check out this daily chart.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF NFLX STOCK. No tariff fears are evident here as the stock continues its uptrend.

NFLX stock remains in a strong uptrend, with a StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) well above the 90-line, making it one of the top-performing large-cap stocks from a technical perspective. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests the stock may be overbought, raising the possibility of a short-term pullback.

The  20-day Price Channel can help identify potential turning points since it highlights recent tops and bottoms. The green-shaded zone marks the first area of support, where a bounce may occur if the stock retreats in the coming sessions. If that level fails to hold, the red-shaded zone identifies a secondary support area aligned with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A drop below this level without a strong rebound could signal a weakening of the current bullish trend.

Caution: Among the three stocks analyzed, Netflix appears to be most exposed to potential downside from Trump’s proposed tariffs on foreign-made films. Investors should remain cautious, as shifting geopolitical dynamics could alter the stock’s fundamental outlook and technical setup.

Now let’s take a look at Disney, a stock vulnerable to Trump’s proposed 100% tariffs on foreign-made films and the added threat of retaliatory tariffs from international markets.

Disney’s Recovery Potential Faces Global Headwinds

With a significant portion of its revenue coming from global box office sales and international theme parks, DIS stock is particularly sensitive to shifts in global trade policy. Take a look at this daily chart.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF DISNEY STOCK PRICE. Oof. Even if it recovers, will we see a breakout beyond the top range?

Disney is underperforming, and the key question is whether the stock is entering a potential recovery phase. The Full Stochastics Oscillator tends to mirror the stock’s cyclical movements well and suggests a possible short-term pullback.

If DIS holds above its most recent swing low support range (highlighted in red), the stock may attempt to retest the resistance area (highlighted in green), which aligns with the 200-day SMA and the most recent swing high.

One bullish signal to note: the Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL) (shown in orange) is significantly above current price levels, suggesting that buying interest may be quietly building even while the stock trades near its lows. Is DIS a solid buy? Probably not at these levels. You will want to see a stronger indication (or confirmation) that DIS is recovering.

Also, note that DIS has been cycling the $80 to $125 range over the last three years. Unless you’re holding it as a dividend stock, there’s little indication yet that there’s going to be growth beyond this exceedingly wide range.

Is Roku Ready to Break Out, or Break Down?

Let’s analyze the daily chart of Roku.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF ROKU STOCK. It’s gearing for a breakout, but driven by what?

ROKU may be the least exposed to the proposed foreign film tariffs, but what’s going to drive it higher? Remember, the stock plunged in 2022–2024 due to falling ad revenue, widening losses, and a high-profile cybersecurity breach that shook investor confidence. Without a clear reason for a rebound, the stock may remain stuck.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is probably the most telling indicator here: buying and selling pressure are at a virtual standstill. There has to be a compelling catalyst to move the stock higher or lower. Still, ROKU appears to be rebounding from a technical standpoint, with overhead resistance levels at $71 and $82.

However, there needs to be something fundamental to validate this technical setup, especially if it turns bullish (like a break above resistance). So if for any reason you’re bullish on ROKU, monitor the fundamental side of this stock play. Right now, it doesn’t look very promising.

At the Close

Trump’s proposed tariff on foreign-made films has stirred up more than just Hollywood headlines; it’s forcing Wall Street to reassess risk across streaming and media stocks. Keep monitoring the technical, fundamental, and geopolitical factors. Don’t make any decisions until you see clear technical confirmation backed by a viable fundamental catalyst. And remember, geopolitical dynamics can still shift the conditions in an instant.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this video, Dave reveals four key charts he’s watching to determine whether the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 will be able to power through their 200-day moving averages en route to higher highs. Using the recently updated StockCharts Market Summary page, he covers moving average breadth measures, his proprietary Market Trend Model, offense vs. defense ratios, and the Bullish Percent Indexes.

This video originally premiered on May 5, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

Communication Services Drops to #5

The composition of the top five sectors remains largely stable this week, with only slight adjustments in positioning. Consumer staples continue to lead the pack, followed by utilities, financials, real estate (moving up one spot), and communication services (dropping to fifth). This defensive lineup persists despite a rallying market, presenting an interesting dilemma for sector rotation strategies.

1. (1) Consumer Staples – (XLP)
2. (2) Utilities – (XLU)
3. (3) Financials – (XLF)
4. (5) Real-Estate – (XLRE)*
5. (4) Communication Services – (XLC)*
6. (6) Healthcare – (XLV)
7. (7) Industrials – (XLI)
8. (8) Materials – (XLB)
9. (11) Technology – (XLK)*
10. (10) Energy – (XLE)
11. (9) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)*

Weekly RRG

The weekly Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) paints a picture of potential change on the horizon.

While staples, utilities, real estate, and financials maintain their positions in the leading quadrant, they show signs of losing relative momentum over the past few weeks.

Financials, particularly, are teetering on the edge of rolling into the weakening quadrant.

Communication services have already shifted, now firmly in the weakening quadrant and traveling on a negative RRG heading. This movement explains its drop to the fifth position in our sector rankings.

Daily RRG

Switching to the daily RRG, we see a slightly different picture for our top sectors.

Staples, utilities, real estate, and financials are all positioned in the weakening quadrant, traveling on negative RRG headings.

This short-term view indicates that we must closely monitor these sectors to determine if they can regain momentum before potentially dropping out of the top five.

Interestingly, communication services is showing signs of life on the daily chart. Despite falling to the fifth position overall, its tail is now in the improving quadrant and moving toward leading.

The caveat? It’s a very short tail, close to the benchmark—essentially moving in line with the market. This makes communication services the sector most at risk of losing its top-five status in the near term.

Consumer Staples

Consumer staples is bumping up against overhead resistance between $82.50 and $83.

This hesitation in upward price movement is causing weakness in the RS line, which has started to dip.

Consequently, the RS momentum line is rolling over. However, the high RS ratio—indicating a strong relative trend—is keeping staples at the top of our list for now.

Utilities

Utilities has been flirting with a breakout since the start of 2025, pushing against overhead resistance around $80 about four times already.

When it breaks, we’ll likely see an acceleration towards the all-time high just above $82.50.

Like staples, the inability to break resistance is causing a stall in the RS line and a rollover in relative momentum.

Financials

After a strong rally off the $42 support level, previously resistance (the old technical adage holds true), financials is now facing a challenge.

The rally is approaching the former rising support level that marked the uptrend channel. This could cause some hesitation in both price and relative strength.

The RS line remains within its rising channel, but momentum has waned, causing the green RS momentum line to roll over.

Real-Estate

Real estate moved up one position to fourth and is still emerging from a long relative downtrend that began in April 2022.

The RS ratio line has picked up the relative strength rally that started in early 2025 but is now stalling.

This has resulted in the green RS momentum line rolling over. On the price chart, real estate is mid-range with room to move higher.

Communication Services

Communication services have dropped to the fifth position, but the price chart has an interesting development.

Last week, the price broke back above the old neckline of a small head-and-shoulders pattern. The fact that we’re now rallying above this neckline could indicate a failed head-and-shoulders pattern—usually a very strong bullish sign.

However, recent weakness in relative strength has pushed the sector deeper into the weakening quadrant on the RRG.

This sector must pick up rapidly in the coming weeks to maintain its position in the top five.

Portfolio Performance

The defensive positioning of our top five sectors is leading to underperformance as the broader market rallies.

Currently, we remain at approximately a 3% underperformance compared to SPY just like last week.

However, from the perspective of sector rotation, we must still consider this rally in the S&P 500 to be temporary.

The underlying message continues to emphasize defense.

It’s important to remember that there is always a lagging element in RRGs and this strategy.

If the market has truly turned, we will see that shift reflected in our sectors, and at some point, we will start to make up the difference.

These performance gaps can change very rapidly in favor of the RRG portfolio when the market comes under pressure and our defensive sectors start to lead again.

#StayAlert and have a great week — Julius