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The Finance sector is leading the market with a new high this week and the Bank SPDR (KBE) is extending on its breakout. Today’s report will outline the lessons of the early January setup and show the mid January breakout. We then show how to set a re-evaluation level that would prove the breakout wrong.

Let’s first review the setup from mid January. The chart below shows KBE hitting a new high in late November and then falling into mid January. The new high affirms a long-term uptrend and KBE remained well above the rising 200-day SMA. Thus, this decline was viewed as a correction within a long-term uptrend. During such pullbacks, I look for Bullish Setup Zones using retracement levels, prior resistance breaks and support levels. These are zones to watch for firming and a reversal.

Three items mark the Bullish Setup Zone on the chart above (see 1, 2 and 3). First, corrections within uptrends typically retraced 1/3 to 2/3 with 1/2 (50%) being the base case. A 50% retracement represents one step backward after two steps forward. Second, a key tenet of technical analysis is that broken resistance levels turn into support. KBE broke resistance around 55 and this area turns into future support. Third, KBE held the 53 area with two bounces in late October and early November (support). Taken together, the 50% retracement, broken resistance and support mark a Bullish Setup Zone in the 53-55 area (blue shading).

The strategy at TrendInvestorPro is to find and trade pullbacks within leading uptrends. Each week we bring you setups in ETFs and stocks. Click here to take a trial and learn more.

Once prices reach the Bullish Setup Zone, it is time to start drawing patterns and marking resistance levels. KBE formed a falling wedge and established short-term resistance with the January 6th high (pink line). Note that falling wedge patterns are typical for corrections within bigger uptrends. KBE broke out with a gap-surge in mid January and extended higher into February. The indicator window shows the price-relative (KBE/RSP ratio) turning up with a relative breakout. KBE is also leading again.

With an active breakout and extension higher, it is time to mark a re-evaluation level. This is the level that negates the wedge breakout and tells us something is wrong. Strong breakouts should hold so a failed breakout shows weakness. The breakout zone in the 55-56.5 area turns into first support (blue shading). A close below 55 would negate this breakout and call for a re-evaluation.

The strategy at TrendInvestorPro is to find and trade pullbacks within leading uptrends. Each week we define the market regime (bull or bear market), identify the leading groups using ETFs and highlight tradeable setups in stocks and ETFs. This week we featured the three biotech ETFs, two biotech stocks, a Mag7 stock and an industrial stock. Click here to take a trial and gain full access.

When you think travel industry, airline and cruise line stocks are usually top of mind. A lesser-known category in the industry is hotel stocks, which saw massive upside moves on Thursday.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) reported strong Q4 earnings, and in sympathy, other hotel stocks also rose. Hotel stocks have had a rough time since Covid hit and it now looks like that may be in the rearview mirrort.

Here’s a synopsis of how some hotel stocks performed on Thursday, many of which have yet to report quarterly earnings:

  • Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Inc. (HLT): +4.86%
  • Marriott International, Inc. (MAR): +3.61%
  • Hyatt Hotels Corp. (H): +4.91%
  • InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG): +1.92%
  • Wyndham Hotels & Resorts (WH): +1.43%

Other travel-related stocks such as Booking Holdings, Inc. (BKNG) and Expedia, Inc. (EXPE) also rose. Expedia’s quarterly earnings, reported after Thursday’s close, beat analyst estimates and the stock climbed sharply in after-hours trading.

Although the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) didn’t reflect the sharp rise in hotel stocks, the Dow Jones US Hotels Index ($DJUSLG) had the highest StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) score in the US Industries, Top Up category in the SCTR Reports. Its closing value is at an all-time high.

FIGURE 1. US INDUSTRIES TOP UP SCTR REPORT. The Dow Jones US Hotels Index had the highest SCTR score and the Dow Jones US Travel & Tourism Index had the greater value increase. Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The New Highs Dashboard data panel showed that HLT and MAR closed at all-time highs.

So, there’s a lot to cheer for hotel stocks. Business demand has picked up, leading to higher hotel occupancy rates. This is a strong catalyst for the hospitality industry and, if the trend continues in this direction, future growth prospects are promising. Travel and tourism are also on the uptick. On Thursday, the Dow Jones US Travel & Tourism Index ($DJUSTT) saw a +25 change in its SCTR score.

A Room to Rest

With such big moves in these industries, it’s worth considering adding hotel stocks to your portfolio. With most hotel stocks already hitting all-time highs, the concern may be that they are toppy. Let’s dive into the daily chart of HLT (see chart below).

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF HILTON STOCK PRICE. The stock price moved above the upper Bollinger Band with the CCI in overbought territory. The uptrend has momentum and could take the stock price higher. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The stock price has moved above the upper Bollinger Band®, which is generally an indication of strength. HLT has a SCTR score of 80.4, another sign of strength. When a stock or ETF hits an all-time high, strong momentum is needed to push the price even higher. Adding a momentum indicator such as the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) to the chart helps identify bullish momentum in the stock.

The CCI is showing strong bullish momentum and indicates overbought conditions. If Hilton’s stock price continues to rise higher and walks the upper Bollinger Band, along with a CCI that remains above the 100 level for an extended period, the stock price could keep rising. Remember, other hotels report earnings later this month and, if their earnings are as strong as Hilton’s, investors could continue to pile into them.

If you’re the type of investor who likes to enter a position during a pullback, wait for the stock price to move toward the middle band or 20-day simple moving average. Then look for a reversal accompanied by a rise in the CCI. This would confirm an uptrend in the stock’s price.

Closing Position

As always, be diligent in managing your positions. No stock price goes up forever, so be prepared to exit your position on any signs of weakening momentum. If you wait for a pullback to enter, make sure there’s enough follow-through in the reversal. If the stock price of Hilton or any other stock, like Marriott or Hyatt, is cost-prohibitive, consider trading options on these stocks. The OptionsPlay Explorer available in StockCharts can display optimal options strategies you can apply to these stocks.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

On Wednesday morning, the markets wavered, with cautious trading across the board, except for the Dow, which outpaced the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Looking for stocks showing strength amid the uncertainty, I turned to the Market Movers tool on my Dashboard. What I found caught my attention.

FIGURE 1. MARKET MOVERS TOOL. AMGN, third from bottom, caught my attention, as the sector has been showing up on quite a few bullish StockCharts scans.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The Health Care sector has been showing up on various scans over the past week, and Amgen, Inc. (AMGN) has been on my radar for quite some time due to several developments that I’ve been following.

To begin, I needed to get a wider perspective, so I switched to MarketCarpets and zoomed-in on the one-day performance of the Health Care sector.

FIGURE 2. MARKETCARPETS FOR THE HEALTHCARE SECTOR. Notice AMGN at the top of the list on the table to the right.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Amgen’s stock surged over 5% (top of the table on the right) despite an FDA hold on its obesity drug trial, as strong Q4 earnings beat Wall Street’s expectations. On top of this, its sales for Repatha soared 45%, and its promising weight-loss drug MariTide is set for late-stage trials in mid-2025.

At this point, I wanted a clearer picture of how AMGN stacked up against its peers. I compared its performance to the biotech industry ($DJUSBT), the pharmaceutical sector ($DJUSPR), and the broader healthcare market (XLV) using PerfCharts. Here’s what I got:

FIGURE 3,. PERFCHARTS COMPARING THE HEALTH CARE SECTOR WITH BIOTECH AND PHARMA INDUSTRIES AND AMGEN. The one-year comparative lookback shows AMGN dragging significantly.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Over the past year, AMGN significantly underperformed both industries and the broader sector. So, does Wednesday’s rally indicate strong optimism on weak prospects, or does it present an undervalued opportunity with plenty of room to run?

Let’s take a longer-term view of AMGN’s price action and analyze its weekly chart.

FIGURE 4. WEEKLY CHART OF AMGN. Note how price respected the 100- and 200-period EMAs.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

AMGN’s fluctuations over the last five years may have been volatile, but the underlying trend has been relatively steady and bullish. Notice how AMGN’s price respected the 100-period and 200-period exponential moving averages (EMAs). Also notice how this dynamic is captured by the Stochastic Oscillator, which reflects the upward bounces in its oversold range below the 20 level signaling renewed buying pressure. Based on the current reading, the indicator is barely reaching the 50-line, suggesting that if AMGN maintains its bullish momentum, it has plenty of room to run before it’s in overbought territory.

But things may look different on a daily scale, so let’s shift over to a daily chart.

FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF AMGN. Watch the support and resistance levels for entry and exit points.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Following a steep descent last November, AMGN found support the next month near $257.50, coinciding with its April 2024 low. That level was retested twice before the sharp rally that culminated in Wednesday’s price spike.

While the On Balance Volume (OBV) shows strong buying pressure fueling the surge, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests the current swing is overbought. Considering the parabolic trajectory of the move, it’s likely that momentum will stall and price will eventually pull back in the next few sessions.

Key levels to watch:

Upside Resistance:

  • AMGN faces resistance at $310 and $327.50, which mark the lower and upper boundaries of its most recent consolidation range.

Downside Support:

  • If AMGN pulls back before breaking these resistance levels, the first key support to watch is $291, a level that held multiple times during May–June 2024, signaling strong buying interest.
  • The second level of support would be at $275, the November swing low.

If price falls below $275, the likelihood of a bullish reversal becomes uncertain, as this breakdown could signal weakening technical (and also fundamental) momentum.

At the Close

AMGN is another relatively expensive stock. If this is the case, then you might want to take a look at the OptionsPlay Strategy Center to find alternative strategies that better align with your capital resources and risk tolerance. AMGN’s recent rally, while impressive, raises important questions about its sustainability. You can use the tools mentioned above to find similar stocks if AMGN doesn’t interest you. If it does, however, the key levels discussed above should help guide you in your analysis.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The trading week started with investors worried about tariffs, but the 30-day delay of tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico shook off those worries. The three broad stock market indexes — S&P 500 ($SPX), Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ), and Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) — closed higher. Then came the retaliation on US tariffs from China, but that didn’t do much damage to the market.

 Let’s face it; the stock market is headline-driven at the moment. Based on the news, investors may favor healthcare stocks one day and tech stocks the next. For individual investors, playing the sector musical chair game makes for a difficult investment environment. So, instead of getting caught up in catching the right sector at the right time, it’s best to focus on the big picture and look at the longer-term trends and patterns. One way to do this is to examine the performance of different sectors, industry groups, and indices through the Bullish Percent Index (BPI).


StockCharts Tip: If you haven’t done so, download the Essentials ChartPack (Charts & Tools tab > ChartPacks). The Market & Index Bullish Percent Indexes list has seven charts in the ChartList (see below).


FIGURE 1. DOWNLOADING CHARTPACKS. From the Charts & Tools tab, select ChartPacks to download the Essentials ChartPack.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

You could add more charts to the list. For example, I use a BPI ChartList each day to determine which sectors are bullish, overbought, or oversold. The image below displays some of the charts in my BPI ChartList.

FIGURE 2. VIEWING THE BULLISH PERCENT INDEX (BPI) CHARTLIST. The Summary view helps to see which sectors are bullish, bearish, overbought, or oversold.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Viewing the ChartList in the Summary view helps to identify if the BPI is bullish, bearish, overbought, or oversold. You can also identify which sectors had the biggest changes for the day.

In the above image, the S&P Financial Sector BPI was the only one above 70, and Consumer Staples Sector BPI or $BPSTAP (not visible in the image; you’ll have to scroll to the next page) was the only one below 30.

Which Sectors Are Feeling the Love?

On Wednesday, the Predefined Alerts panel flashed that the Consumer Staples Sector BPI crossed above 30. This was a bull alert trigger warranting a closer look.

The chart below displays $BPSTAP with the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP).

FIGURE 3. CONSUMER STAPLES BPI VS. CONSUMER STAPLES SELECT SPDR ETF (XLP). The BPI for the Consumer Staples Sector has crossed above 30, which is a bull alert trigger. The XLP chart still has to confirm a bullish move.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Although the $BPSTAP has crossed above 30, the XLP chart doesn’t display a bullish trend. Given that inflation is a big concern among US consumers, it’s worth monitoring the Consumer Staples sector for a chance to buy some stocks.

We posted an article on three stocks in the Consumer Staples sector, focused on Walmart, Inc. (WMT), Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST), and Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM). These stocks are still looking strong, but come with a high price tag. So, instead of purchasing the stock outright, I decided to explore options strategies for these stocks.

Options To the Rescue

After analyzing all three stocks using the Options tool (see image below), I considered a call vertical spread on COST and WMT. SFM wasn’t under consideration since it had a low-scoring strategy.

  • COST had an OptionsPlay score of 108. The call vertical trade would cost me $4,250 with an 182.35% potential return.
  • WMT had an OptionsPlay score of 106. The trade would cost me $508 with a 172.05% potential return.

WMT was the lower-risk play, so I placed the April 17 100/115 call vertical, a strategy displayed in the OptionsPlay Explorer tool, with my broker (see image below). I got filled at a price slightly higher than $508 due to price fluctuations and broker fees.

FIGURE 4. OPTIONSPLAY EXPLORER DISPLAYS THREE OPTIMAL TRADES FOR WMT. The April 17 100/115 call vertical was the most optimal trade with a good risk/reward tradeoff. Image source: OptionsPlay Add-on at StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Closing Position

There are 71 days till expiry. If WMT closes above $105.08 the trade will be profitable. The target price is $113.82.

There’s a 38.89% probability of the stock closing above $105.08 by expiration, all else equal. I’ll monitor the position and, if the price target is reached, I will close my position. Another point to keep in mind is that WMT reports earnings on February 20 before the market opens. Volatility will likely increase around that time and could significantly move the stock price in either direction.

In this exclusive StockCharts video, Joe presents a trading strategy using the simple moving average. Explaining what to watch and how it can tell you what timeframe to trade, he shares how to use it in multiple timeframes. Joe covers the QQQ and IWM and explains the levels to monitor in both indices. Finally, he goes through the symbol requests that came through this week, including KR, IBM, and more.

This video was originally published on February 5, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

In this video, Dave reveals three common behavioral biases, shows how they can negatively impact your portfolio returns, and describes how to use the StockCharts platform to minimize these biases in your investment process. He also shares specific examples, from gold to Pfizer to the S&P 500, and explains how a consistent use of technical analysis tools can help you overcome these biases to experience better returns!

This video originally premiered on February 4, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

In this exclusive StockCharts video, Julius shares a new approach to seasonality by using a more granular, data-set constructed UDI (User Defined Index) for every sector. Using the UDI functionality on StockCharts.com allows Julius to plot the seasonal patterns for each sector forward to the end of 2025 and overlay the current chart to spot (dis)alignments.

This video was originally published on February 4, 2025. Click on the icon above to view on our dedicated page for Julius.

Past videos from Julius can be found here.

#StayAlert, -Julius

Monday’s market opening was a doozy, with all three indices down nearly 2% in overnight trading. This was in response to President Trump’s 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on China. Eventually, the indices were able to stem their losses as Trump paused the tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports for a month, a strategic move aimed at pressuring trade negotiations.

Before the markets stabilized, however, I ran a few scans to identify stocks bucking the trend, looking for resilience amid fears of escalating trade tensions. Using StockCharts’ MarketCarpets, I quickly zoomed in on the Consumer Staples sector—one of the most tariff-sensitive areas likely to impact consumers.

FIGURE 1. MARKETCARPETS 1-DAY VIEW OF CONSUMER STAPLES.  Walmart and Costco were among the top-gaining stocks in the sector. While both are exposed to tariff pressures, their positioning and scale allow them to mitigate the impact differently.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Following this, I chose to run a scan for Outperforming SPY: 52-Week Relative Highs to identify top-gaining stocks in the Consumer Staples sector.

FIGURE 2. SCAN RESULTS FOR OUTPERFORMING SPY: 52-WEEK RELATIVE HIGHS.  Three big grocery stocks came up—COST, WMT, and SFM.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Here’s where it gets interesting:

Costco (COST) benefits from a loyal membership base, bulk discounts, and strong private label offerings, helping it absorb tariff-related costs. Its diversified supply chain and purchasing power further mitigate exposure.

Walmart (WMT) enjoys similar economies of scale and private label advantages, but if consumers trade down or cut discretionary spending, margin pressures could weigh on revenues.

Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) sources some products locally but relies heavily on Mexican imports. If rising prices make customers more price-sensitive, they may shift to larger chains like Walmart or Costco. Among the three, SFM is most at risk in the event of a prolonged trade war with our local neighbors.

Let’s take a one-year look back using the StockCharts PerfCharts and see how these stocks performed relative to the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP), a sector proxy, and the S&P 500 ($SPX).

FIGURE 3. PERFCHARTS ONE-YEAR VIEW OF XLP, COST, WMT, SFM, AND $SPX. Note how far SFM outperformed them all.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

I’ve written about SFM before, but I wasn’t expecting the stock to have outperformed its peers in the way that it has over the last year. All three stocks outperformed the S&P 500, while XLP underperformed the broader market.

Now it’s time to zoom in, starting with a daily chart of COST.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF COST. Relative to the Consumer Staples Bullish Percent Index ($BPSTAP), Costco is remarkably bucking the trend.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Costco is poised to break above resistance at $1,008, a move that would push the stock to an all-time high. But does it have the momentum to sustain the rally? While breadth in the sector looks weak, with just 29% of stocks flashing Point & Figure buy signals according to the Consumer Staples sector’s Bullish Percent Index (BPI), COST stands out as an exception alongside two other names. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests the stock is entering overbought territory but still has room to run, while the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) has just cleared the bullish 70 threshold, although it has struggled to hold above the ultra-bullish 90 level.

If the breakout fails, key support levels are $908 and $870. Momentum and volume are critical indicators of any potential bounce.

Shifting to a daily chart of WMT, the stock has maintained a steady uptrend with minimal volatility, aside from a summer dip, a sharp November rally, and a December pullback. The stock recently cleared resistance at $96, propelling it toward an all-time high.

FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF WMT. The stock price is at all-time highs. Volume and momentum are giving slightly, which may signal a pullback. Watch the Keltner Channel bands that are overlaid on the price chart.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The SCTR score remains around 90, signaling strong technical momentum across multiple timeframes. Keep an eye on price as the RSI is signaling potential overbought territory.

In terms of volume, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicates a surge in buying pressure, reinforcing bullish sentiment. If WMT pulls back, keep an eye on the Keltner Channel bands, which act as both a trend indicator and dynamic support/resistance levels. Additionally, the most recent swing low of around $90 could serve as a key support zone.

Now, the strongest performing stock of the bunch: Sprouts. Below is a daily chart of SFM.

FIGURE 6. DAILY CHART OF SFM. This stock is the outperformer of the bunch. Watch key support levels (blue dashed horizontal lines) should it pull back.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Sprouts Farmers Market has exhibited strong technical momentum throughout 2024, mirroring WMT’s bullish trajectory. With the stock breaking above $155 to reach an all-time high, the Money Flow Index (MFI) signals overbought conditions, hinting at a potential pullback. If selling pressure emerges, key support levels to watch include prior resistance at $155, a congestion zone between $138 and $143, and the major swing low around $125. While MFI confirms strong volume and momentum, it also suggests that the rally may be a bit stretched in the short term.

At the Close

Costco, Walmart, and Sprouts Farmers Market have outperformed their sector peers, defying broader weakness in the group. While strong sector performance usually provides a tailwind for individual stocks, the opposite scenario raises concerns that sector-wide pressure could eventually drag these leaders lower. Monitor their key levels closely, especially during pullbacks, to determine whether they present a buying opportunity or a signal to stay on the sidelines.

If some stocks, like COST, are too pricey to buy several positions outright, check out StockCharts’ OptionsPlay Strategy Center to discover alternative strategies that align with your directional bias and risk tolerances, allowing you to capitalize on market opportunities more efficiently.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Secondary market signals are beginning to line up for a further drop, which can sometimes provide false signals. The primary indicator for me is always the combination of price/volume. When I only look at price/volume on the S&P 500, it still remains easy to be long – on all time frames:

S&P 500 – daily:

S&P 500 – weekly:

S&P 500 – monthly:

It’s REALLY hard to argue with uptrends and I’m not arguing with whether we’re in an uptrend. But I am beginning to see many secondary signals issuing warning signs that the risk of remaining long no longer makes sense. That’s about where I think we are now. I can’t guarantee lower prices ahead, but I CAN see warning signs. The VIX is one of those. As the S&P 500 rises, the VIX drops. That’s the historical relationship. To me, it’s a warning when the S&P 500 climbs and the VIX does too. That tells us that market nervousness is growing and the S&P 500 will unlikely handle bad news well. Here’s a chart that shows the building fear and nervousness, despite the recent all-time high price:

I don’t like to see fear escalating, like what’s in the bottom panel, when we’re trying to make another all-time high breakout. We should instead be seeing the VIX moving towards the recent low at 13. But here we are with a VIX at 18.22. I’ve previously posted on this blog that the absolute worst market days occur when the VIX is above 20. That’s where we can see severe impulsive selling kick in. We’re teetering here folks and everyone should be on high alert for a possible market meltdown.

YouTube FREE Live Streaming Event Today

If you want to check out MANY secondary warning signals that I’m seeing in the market right now and why you should be preparing to “batten down the hatches”, join me on our EarningsBeats.com YouTube channel for FREE. JOIN ME HERE and we’ll get things started at 5:30pm ET today. Should you be worried about a BIG selloff? Well, I’m nearly always bullish and I’ve moved to 100% cash, if that tells you anything. Watch these warning signs and then decide for yourself.

I hope you’re able to join, it might just save you a bundle!

Happy trading!

Tom