This week, we’re getting back to earnings season during the shortened four-day period.

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) reports on the heels of JP Morgan’s solid results that saw its shares rally by 12.3% and recapture its 200-day moving average.

Watch the trading revenue numbers as added volatility should help their bottom line exceed expectations. The implied one-day move for earnings day is +/- 7.7% and, if the market is moving that morning, then expect more-than-normal movement.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF GS. If the stock rallies watch the $520 level. A break above this level could be a positive move.

Technically, shares have been put through the wringer. GS’s stock price has broken many key trendlines and support levels along the way. Maybe, just maybe, it has found a floor.

Like most stocks in this current environment, the swings have been wild. Lines in the sand have been drawn, and maybe GS can follow JPM’s lead as the charts are similar.

Things have been extremely volatile; the range between support and resistance is wide. The $440/$450 area looks to be a strong area of support for now. However, the trend has changed, and there has been much technical damage done. There are levels of resistance above, but it seems more likely that they may get tested before any retest of the lows.

On a rally, watch the $520 level, from which it broke down after breaching its 200-day moving average. If shares eclipse that, then it will likely experience a run back to its 200-day at $540. That would take the stock’s price back to its new downtrend line and should be met with much selling pressure.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has experienced some of the wildest swings since making a new high in early March. The stock price has fallen over 16%. Look for it to get back to its winning ways when the company reports on Tuesday.

Year-to-date, shares are up 5% and in one of the strongest sectors for those playing defense. Like all companies reporting, the focus will be on management’s commentary on future earnings guidance and potential impacts from global economic conditions.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF JNJ. The stock price could see more downside, or it could move up to its 200-day moving average.Technically, shares are in a bit of a no-man’s land. Price action has been streaky and now they report in the middle of this recent wide range.

The bear case is that shares have yet to reach oversold levels and test major support. They came close, but didn’t get below $140. So more of a downside could be reached before jumping into the stock.

The bull case, at a minimum, is a reversion back to the 200-day moving average, just above current levels. The best case is that it has little tariff exposure, making it a safer haven in tough times and may run back towards old highs.

Overall, outside a safe 3.3% dividend, the case to jump in for a trade is tough to make given its recent price action.

Netflix (NFLX) has given back all its gains from its last earnings cycle and hopes it can regain those levels when it reports on Thursday.

Shares are seen as a safer haven in this tariff war environment, but have not been immune to the wild market swings we have been seeing. NFLX has continued to put up solid numbers and fared better than most growth stocks during this time.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF NFLX. A head and shoulders top, bullish divergence in the RSI, and bullish MACD crossover lean toward a bullish move.

Technically, there are several more positives than negatives. NFLX’s stock price has formed a head-and-shoulders top, but failed to break its neckline at the $820 level and bounced. That was one positive development, but the pattern still hangs over the stock for now.

Secondly, there’s a bullish divergence in its relative strength index (RSI) when you compare it to recent price action. As price made new lows, the RSI did not. That indicates something has changed — this recent sell-off was not as strong as its predecessor and that a reversal may be coming.

Lastly, we may be experiencing a bullish crossover in its moving average convergence/divergence (MACD). While we always want confirmation, sometimes anticipating the move may be worth the risk. When tied into the above two factors, I believe it is.

The stock has a history of gaps after earnings, so watch that gap and price action immediately afterward. If NFLX experiences a gap higher and above the 50-day moving average, you can use that as a stop to manage risk. To the downside, watch to see if the $820 level holds. If it doesn’t, there could be an accelerated move to the downside.

Stock market analysis, technical indicators, and market trends are crucial for informed investing. StockCharts is making those things easier, and Grayson Roze is here to show you how.

In this video, Grayson provides an in-depth walk-through of the all-new Market Summary Page. This comprehensive tool offers a top-down overview of global and U.S. financial markets, featuring real-time data and professionally curated charts. Learn how to navigate the markets with ease using this centralized resource, designed to enhance your trading strategies and investment decisions. Whether you’re a seasoned trader or just starting out, understanding market dynamics is key. Grayson’s insights will help you leverage the Market Summary Page to stay ahead in the ever-evolving financial landscape.

This video originally premiered on April 11, 2024. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.

The current tariff environment is full of sudden moves that could have broad and long-lasting effects. The challenge is that we don’t know what those long-term impacts will be, mainly because it’s unclear how long the tariffs will last or what things will look like if they become permanent. That makes it incredibly hard to plan or make smart decisions right now.

Near-term shocks are preventing us from estimating the longer-term picture. Perhaps an effective way to counterbalance the geopolitical and market news with some objectivity, then, is to look under the stock market’s hood and take a good look at its breadth of movement—specifically, a longer-term summation of advancing vs. declining stocks. One indicator that’s designed specifically to do this, and one you might want to consider, is the McClellan Summation Index.

What Does the McClellan Summation Index Tell You?

Derived from the McClellan Oscillator, the McClellan Summation Index is a long-term market breadth indicator that shows whether more stocks are generally advancing or declining over time.

Think of it as a cumulative McClellan Oscillator of sorts. When the McClellan Oscillator is positive (above zero, meaning more advancers than decliners), the McClellan Summation Index trends upward; when the oscillator is negative (more decliners than advancers), the corresponding summation index trends downward. As you’ll see in Figure 1, uptrend and downtrend are color-coded black and red, respectively, so you distinguish the turns.

Generally, when the summation index is above zero (or +500), it signals bullish momentum (+500 signaling extremely bullish momentum); below zero (or –500), it reflects bearish (or exceedingly bearish) momentum. By smoothing out the short-term noise of the McClellan Oscillator, the summation can help you gauge the underlying strength or weakness of a market trend.

And smoothing out the noise coming out of the current trade war environment is probably something you’ll want to see.

Take a look at a three-year chart of the NYSE McClellan Summation Index paired with the S&P 500.

FIGURE 1. THREE-YEAR CHART OF THE NYSE MCCLELLAN SUMMATION INDEX WITH THE S&P 500. Notice the index turning points as they correspond to the ZigZag lines in the S&P. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The NYSE McClellan Summation Index is in negative territory below the zero line, and the S&P is undergoing a steep drop.  The Summation Index shows that declining stocks are far outnumbering advancing stocks, providing a breadth-informed perspective from which to view the broader market’s bearish decline.

While you can wait for the summation index to cross over the zero line (or even above 500), one way to interpret an early bullish signal is to apply a simple moving average (SMA), such as a 20-day SMA (see purple-dotted line).

As you can see in the chart above, there were many crossovers, indicating upturns and downturns. So, how might you avoid getting whipsawed and taking action on a false signal? You have to watch the price action, particularly the swing highs and lows (remember, an uptrend consists of HH + HL, and the reverse is true of a downtrend). This is where the ZigZag line comes in handy.

• The chart illustrates the S&P 500 trending higher from the last quarter of 2022 to the breakdown in March 2025.
• Note how almost all crossovers below the negative line (highlighted by the blue circles) forecasted new highs in the S&P 500.
• The June 2023 crossover was the exception, but the pullback stayed well above the March 2023 low, sustaining its primary uptrend.
• In October 2024, the summation index began falling as the S&P 500 continued making new highs.
• The last SMA crossover preceded a new high, but the S&P finally broke down (see dotted line), leading to where we are now.

At the Close: What Now?

The broader market is trading on tariff-driven headlines, with policy shifts carrying enough weight to reshape the underlying fundamentals. Short-term technicals reflect this uncertainty through heightened volatility, some of which feels nearly unprecedented. In contrast, the longer-term picture—viewed through the lens of the McClellan Summation Index—appears steadier, though still susceptible to noise.

For long-term investors seeking early signs of a shift, watch the Summation Index closely. A bullish crossover above its moving average may be the first clue, but the real confirmation comes from trend behavior. Use tools like the ZigZag indicator to track swing highs and lows—what you want to see are higher highs and higher lows taking shape. Until then, most other market interpretations remain at the mercy of sudden geopolitical shifts—moves that are unpredictable in both timing and duration.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In the opening scene of Mission Impossible 2, Ethan Hunt receives a message at the top of a sandstone butte. He puts on the glasses and listens to the message, which ends with the computer-generated phrase: “This message will self-destruct in five seconds.” Ethan throws the glasses, and they explode.

Analysis in the current climate lasts more than five seconds, but it is vulnerable to self-destruction in five days. Keep this in mind when digesting reports and analyzing charts. We are in an extremely fluid and volatile period right now.

Note that the stock market timing model at TrendInvestorPro turned bearish in mid-March and remains bearish. Wednesday’s 10.5% surge in SPY was impressive but not enough to reverse this signal or trigger a bullish breadth thrust. Follow-through is what differentiates oversold bounces from bullish breadth thrusts. We will monitor our thrust models closely in the coming days and weeks. Click here to take a trial and get immediate access to all our reports and videos.

Now let’s turn to the bond market. Treasury bonds are plunging, which means long-term Treasury yields are rising—and rising sharply. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 4.86%, rising from 4.40% (+0.46 or 46 basis points). This is the largest 4-day rise in over 30 years. The 10-year Treasury yield is also on the move, hitting 4.44%. Safe-haven bonds are supposed to attract money when volatility and risk rise in the equity market. They are doing the opposite, and this is disconcerting. For history buffs, note that the bond vigilantes were also active from October 1993 to November 1994 as the 10-yr Treasury Yield rose from 5.2% to 8%. 

Bonds move in the opposite direction of yields, which means the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is breaking down. The chart below shows weekly candlesticks for TLT over the last four years. TLT fell from December 2021 to October 2023, formed a rising wedge into September 2024, and broke down in October. The ETF continued lower, recording 52-week lows in December and January. The wedge break signaled an end to the corrective bounce and a continuation of the larger downtrend. New lows are expected.

The next chart shows daily candlesticks over the past year. TLT fell sharply from mid-September to early January, rebounded with a rising wedge into early April, and broke down this week. Notice how TLT reversed in the Bearish Setup Zone (pink shading). The 50–61.8% retracement area and resistance from the early December high define this zone. During counter-trend bounces, I use these tools to define a potential reversal zone. TLT reversed with a vengeance this week and broke down. 

The bottom window shows the PPO (5,200,0) with signal lines at +1% and -1% for signals. This indicator shows the percentage difference between the 5-day and 200-day EMAs. I use signal thresholds just above and below zero to reduce whipsaws. The PPO crossed below -1% in mid-October to signal a downtrend, and this signal remains in play. A move above +1% is needed to signal an uptrend and re-evaluate my bearish stance.

As with equities, bond market volatility surged over the last two weeks with TLT surging 5% from March 27th to April 3rd, and then falling 8% the last four days. These swings are based on intraday highs and lows. Volatility makes chart analysis challenging, but I will adhere to signals until they are proven wrong, which could be in five days. Be careful out there! 

It was a busy week in the markets with TrendInvestorPro covering several key issues. We started the week by highlighting the 3 standard deviation decline in SPY and some extremely oversold breadth indicators. We then looked at 2008 to compare Wednesday’s bounce with some of the other bear market bounces. The week ended with analysis of gold, the Yen, TLT, SPY and QQQ. Click here to take a trial and get immediate access to our reports and videos.

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When the stock market slides significantly, it’s natural to question if the market has bottomed and getting ready to bounce. 

In this video, David Keller, CMT highlights the Bullish Percent Index (BPI) as a key indicator to monitor during corrective moves. Learn more about how the BPI is derived, what current levels indicate about the likelihood of a short-term rally, and what you should see in the BPI to gain confidence in a recovery in the S&P 500. Dave looks at how the stock market performed in past instances when the BPI was as low as it is now.

This video was published on April 10, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

S&P 500 earnings are in for 2024 Q4, and here is our valuation analysis.

The following chart shows the normal value range of the S&P 500 Index, indicating where the S&P 500 would have to be in order to have an overvalued P/E of 20 (red line), a fairly valued P/E of 15 (blue line), or an undervalued P/E of 10 (green line). Annotations on the right side of the chart show where the range is projected to be based upon earnings estimates through 2025 Q4.

Historically, price has usually remained below the top of the normal value range (red line); however, since about 1998, it has not been uncommon for price to exceed normal overvalue levels, sometimes by a lot. The market has been mostly overvalued since 1992, and it has not been undervalued since 1984. We could say that this is the “new normal,” except that it isn’t normal by GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) standards.

We use GAAP earnings as the basis for our analysis. The table below shows earnings projections through December 2025. Keep in mind that the P/E estimates are calculated based upon the S&P 500 close as of March 31, 2025. They will change daily depending on where the market goes from here. It is notable that the P/E remains outside the normal range.

The following table shows where the bands are projected be, based upon earnings estimates through 2025 Q4.

This DecisionPoint chart keeps track of S&P 500 fundamentals, P/E and yield, and it is updated daily — not that you need to watch it that closely, but it is up-to-date when you need it.

CONCLUSION: The market is still very overvalued and the P/E is still well above the normal range. Earnings have ticked up and are projected to trend higher for the next four quarters. High valuation applies negative pressure on the market, but other more positive factors can keep the market in overvalued territory. The current bear market has brought the market to a less overvalued status, but there is still a long way to go to more normal valuation.

Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on StockCharts TV’s YouTube channel here!

(c) Copyright 2025 DecisionPoint.com

Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

Helpful DecisionPoint Links:

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Is the stock market volatility making you nervous? 

In this video, Grayson Roze and Julius de Kempenaer unpack the volatile market environment and discuss pain points, some of the “bright spots” they are seeing in the market, and the StockCharts tools they are using to identify shifts in market sentiment.

Learn how you can use market breadth indicators, support levels, and chart patterns to identify turning points in the market. You will also discover the tools Grayson and Julius rely on to help them navigate the stock market.

This video premiered on April 9, 2025.

For more videos like this, check out the StockCharts TV channel on YouTube.

Tariff turmoil continues sending the stock market into a turbulent spin. Tariffs went into effect at midnight, which sent equities and bond prices lower. Then before 1:30 PM ET Wednesday, President Trump announced that China would be slapped with 125% tariffs and the reciprocal tariffs are on pause for 90 days.

This was a huge turning point for the market. Without skipping a heartbeat, buyers rushed in and accumulated equities, especially large-cap growth stocks. The S&P 500 closed higher by 9.52%, the Nasdaq was up 12.16%, and the Dow was up 7.87%. Small and mid-cap stocks also saw substantial gains. 

Wednesday’s turnaround may have been the biggest one-day point gains in history for some of the broader stock market indexes but let’s look at the charts to see a clearer picture of what’s going on with this whacky stock market. 

A View of the Broader Stock Market

From a long-term perspective, the uptrend in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow are still intact. The weekly charts of the three indexes are also encouraging. But the daily charts are not yet screaming buy signals. Let’s start with the daily chart of the Nasdaq.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF NASDAQ COMPOSITE. The index has hit the resistance of its 21-day exponential moving average and breadth indicators in the lower panels show some breadth indicators are improving but not enough to suggest a bottom in the index.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes. 

The Nasdaq touched its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA), which could be the first resistance level for it to overcome. The three breadth indicators in the lower panels—Nasdaq Composite Bullish Percent Index (BPI), NASDAQ Advance-Decline Line, and percentage of stocks trading above the 200-day moving average of the Nasdaq—are improving slightly but they are not showing signs of bullishness. 

Wednesday’s best-performing S&P sector was Technology followed by Consumer Discretionary. Rotation into these sectors implies risk-on investing. However, since the Nasdaq’s daily trend is still down, don’t let your emotions guide your investment decisions. Look for confirming signals before entering any long positions. 

The S&P 500 daily chart is not much different (see below). The index came close to touching its 21-day EMA. If the index opens higher on Thursday, watch this EMA closely. A break above it would be a positive move but there still needs to be a series of higher highs and higher lows for an uptrend to be established. 

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF THE S&P 500 INDEX. It’s worth watching the 21-day EMA in the S&P 500. If the index breaks through that level and starts showing signs of an uptrend and the market breadth indicators suggest increasing bullish participation, it may be time to think about adding positions. But, we’re far from that point. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The market breadth indicators in the lower panels are showing some signs of improvement. The percentage of stocks trading above the 200-day moving average of the S&P 500 is at 31.80, which is encouraging but you want to see it at or above 50%. Like the Nasdaq, the S&P 500 is showing no clear signs of an uptrend, so tread carefully.

Replace the symbol in either of the above charts with $INDU and you’ll see that the Dow is in a similar position as the Nasdaq and S&P 500. 

Bonds to the Rescue?

Although equities showed a lot of movement on Wednesday, don’t lose sight of the shenanigans in the bond world. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose as high as 4.47% but pulled back and closed at 4.40%, which is still relatively high. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) closed 3.24% higher. 

This price action in TLT is worth watching closely. Bond prices fall when yields rise and Wednesday started out with stock and bond prices falling. This is unusual since bond prices usually rise when stocks fall. There was a lot of bond selling taking place the previous night which may have been due to the unwind of the basis trade by hedge funds. Since we’re technical analysts, instead of getting into the nitty gritty details of this hedge fund strategy, let’s analyze the five-year weekly chart of TLT.

FIGURE 3. FIVE-YEAR WEEKLY CHART OF TLT. This bond ETF has been in a downward trend for the last five years. Has its time come or will it linger in the depths of the abyss for longer? Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Bond prices have been trending lower over the past five years and showing no signs of a reversal. Although TLT came off its lows, it still has a long way to go before showing modest signs of an uptrend. 

The Bottom Line 

Wednesday’s big turnaround didn’t change the big picture. We’re not out of the woods yet. And there’s more excitement to look forward to — the March CPI on Thursday morning and earnings season kicks off on Friday. A note about earnings — we probably won’t see much of an impact this quarter but keep your ear open for any chatter on how tariffs will affect profitability. 

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Is the stock market on the verge of crashing or has it bottomed?

In this video, Joe Rabil uses moving averages and Fibonacci retracement levels on a longer-term chart of the S&P 500 to identify support levels that could serve as potential bottoms for the current market correction.

Understand why the 2025 stock market is different from the 2022 one and explore how the market drop can impact the SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM.

The video premiered on April 9, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

The market is in a tailspin as tariffs add volatility to the market. Carl and Erin believe the SPY is in a bear market given key indexes like the Nasdaq are already in bear markets. It’s time to consider where the key support levels are.

Carl addressed his thoughts of where key support lies on the SPY during our question section of the trading room. You’ll also get his insight on current market conditions with his review of the market indicators in general as well as a look at Yields, Bonds, Crude Oil, Bitcoin among others.

During the review he pointed out how the members of our 26 indexes, sectors and groups are faring from their recent highs. Many are in bear markets.

After his market analysis, Carl walked us through the Magnificent Seven which are currently all in bear markets with declines of more than 20% or more. He analyzed both the daily and the weekly charts to give us perspective and support levels.

Erin took the controls and gave us her view of sector rotation using the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) sort to bring the strong sectors to the top and the weaker sectors on the bottom. The results were not surprising.

Finally, the pair finished with a look at viewer symbol requests.

01:03 DP Signal Tables

05:05 Market Overview

18:55 Magnificent Seven

25:42 Questions (including Key Support Levels)

34:10 Sector Rotation

42:26 Symbol Requests

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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin

(c) Copyright 2025 DecisionPoint.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

Helpful DecisionPoint Links:

Trend Models

Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)

On Balance Volume

Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)

ITBM and ITVM

SCTR Ranking

Bear Market Rules