In today’s DP Alert short video we discuss the key support levels for Gold as it has likely begun a longer-term correction. We also take a look at Gold Miners under the hood! Charts and commentary are taken from our subscriber-only DP Alert publication. Subscribe now and try us out for 2 weeks using coupon code: DPTRIAL2.

Below are the charts that we used in the video for your review:

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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin

(c) Copyright 2024 DecisionPoint.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

Helpful DecisionPoint Links:

Trend Models

Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)

On Balance Volume

Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)

ITBM and ITVM

SCTR Ranking

Bear Market Rules

In this exclusive StockCharts video, Joe explains how to use an 18 simple moving average in multiple timeframes to identify when a stock has confluence amongst 2-3 timeframes. He shows how to start with the higher timeframes first, before working down to the lower ones. Joe then covers the shifts that are taking place in the sectors; in addition, he shows a nice feature in StockChartsACP that can help zero you in on new emerging strength. Finally, he goes through the symbol requests that came through this week.

This video was originally published on November 13, 2024. Click this link to watch on StockCharts TV.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has occasionally appeared in the Top 10 StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) Reports. More recently, it has reached the top 5, making it a stock worth analyzing.

Palantir is a data analytics company that could benefit from the AI boom. On November 4, after reporting better-than-expected quarterly earnings, Palantir’s stock price rose 23% and has continued rising since then. The stock price is up over 250% this year. Given this performance and being added to the S&P 500 in early September, PLTR has a lot of upside potential.

FIGURE 1. PALANTIR IN THIRD PLACE. The stock’s recent price action has made PLTR a contender for a closer look.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The weekly chart of Palantir stock paints the picture, and the dramatic price rise last week is very clear. After breaking through all resistance levels, the stock price is in a position to navigate uncharted territories. This makes it difficult to forecast Palantir’s stock price, but, given how far the stock price has come, it’s worth keeping an eye on it.

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF PALANTIR STOCK. The stock price has broken through all resistance levels and is now in uncharted territory. How much higher can it go?Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The daily chart (see below) shows that the uptrend is still going strong.

FIGURE 3. PALANTIR STOCK’s UPWARD TREND. The SCTR score has been above 80 since the early stages of the uptrend in the stock price. The relative strength index and full stochastic oscillator are in overbought territory.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Palantir is trading above its 15-day exponential moving average (EMA), its relative strength index (RSI) is well above the 70 level, and the full stochastic oscillator shows the stock is in overbought territory. Notice that the SCTR score has been above 80 since June 2024, when PLTR started its ascent. The bull run has been going on for a while, and recent price action shows that this stock has a lot of momentum.

When To Buy PLTR Stock

Palantir stock’s price action after its recent earnings report has been euphoric, so a correction would be healthy. When a stock is trading at its all-time high, it’s difficult to determine how deep a pullback would be. I am currently using the 15-day EMA as a potential support level, although I might have to tighten it depending on how the stock behaves in the next few trading sessions.

There are signs of a pullback surfacing. The red body of the last candlestick bar is the first since its last earnings report. Note the decline in trading volume while prices were rising. These are signs of a price decline, but, if the overall market remains bullish, the price decline may not be deep enough to reach the 15-day EMA. I might shorten it to a 10-day or even a 5-day EMA to use as a support level.

I would enter a long position when the price reverses on increasing volume and hold it until momentum decreases enough to justify exiting it. I would use a trailing stop to exit the position. Since PLTR is an AI-related stock, I would also monitor the performance of other AI stocks. If interest tapers, I would either avoid adding long positions or, if I own the stock, sell at least some of my positions.

The Bottom Line

I’ve added PLTR to my WatchLists ChartList (to organize your ChartLists, use the StockCharts ChartList Framework) and to one of my Dashboard panels to monitor it regularly. I wouldn’t want to miss an opportunity to ride Palantir’s rally.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

When a stock shows an RSI value above 80, is that a good thing or a bad thing? In this video, Dave reviews a series of examples showing this “extreme overbought” condition, highlights how these signals usually occur not at the end of, but often earlier in an uptrend phase, and unveils how to use the StockCharts platform to scan for stocks meeting this criteria today!

This video originally premiered on November 13, 2024. Watch on our dedicated David Keller page on StockCharts TV!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

The post-election euphoria may have taken a breather on Tuesday, as the US stock market indexes closed lower. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) was only lower by 0.09%, whereas the S&P 600 Small Cap Index ($SML) was down the most—it closed lower by 1.54%.

A MarketCarpets Ride

On a day when the equity indexes closed lower, Tuesday’s StockCharts’ MarketCarpets shows that the downward move was mostly from a handful of sectors. Materials, Health Care, Real Estate, Utilities, Industrials, and Energy were the worst hit. Consumer Discretionary was also hit hard, except for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), the highest cap-weighted stock in the sector.

FIGURE 1. MARKETCARPET FOR TUESDAY. Although a lot of sectors were a sea of red, the Mag 7 stocks closed higher.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

What stands out in the MarketCarpet is that the heavily weighted Mag 7 stocks, NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, and NFLX, closed higher for the day. AAPL was the exception—it closed unchanged. So, it’s unsurprising that Communication Services and Technology were Tuesday’s top performers.

Because most of the largest cap-weighted stocks closed higher, pulling up the Nasdaq 100 Equal-Weighted Index ($NDXE) chart made sense. The daily chart below shows that the index is still bullish despite Tuesday’s pullback, a decline of -0.41%. $NDXE broke above its July high post-election and is trading relatively close to its all-time high.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF NASDAQ 100 EQUAL WEIGHTED INDEX ($NDXE). Even though the large cap-weighted stocks performed well, the equal-weighted index is also bullish despite underperforming the Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX).Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes only.

The last bar on the chart hit the November 7 (the last large body day) low and bounced back. Since the long body of November 7, there are now three short bodies, suggesting that market participants aren’t decisive in one way or another (see the candlestick bars within the green rectangle).

Note that $NDXE is underperforming relative to the Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX), which isn’t unusual. What is interesting to see is that the relative performance is declining. This may mean that we could see a rotation into Technology and Communication Services as the year plays out.

Finding Stocks Using MarketCarpets

With many mega-cap tech stocks trading at elevated prices, does this mean the less sought-after smaller-cap tech stocks won’t see much upside movement? Not necessarily. One way to identify some of the smaller-weighted tech stocks is to look for technically strong stocks within the top-performing sector that are lower priced.

For example, expand the Technology sector in the MarketCarpet (click Technology header) and follow the path below:

Select SCTR from Measurements > 1M Change from Color By > Equal Weight from Size By.

I use the equal weight because it makes it easier to identify the different stocks. Note that this is just an example; you can use any parameters that meet your investing needs.

The screenshot below is the result of the above-mentioned selection criteria.

FIGURE 3. DIVING DEEPER INTO THE TECHNOLOGY SECTOR. Organizing the MarketCarpets by SCTR and equal weight makes it easier to identify the technically strong stocks.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The table on the right displays the top performers based on your selected criteria. Mouse over the squares of those top performers and, from the thumbnail chart, identify the stocks that meet your price-per-share threshold. Then, double-click on the tile in the MarketCarpet to see the Symbol Summary page for your selected stock. From here, you can do a deeper analysis; if the stock has upside potential, add it to an appropriate ChartList. Set a price alert so you’re notified when the alert is met.

The bottom line: The stock market offers many opportunities. The key to taking advantage of those opportunities lies in your market analysis. The StockCharts MarketCarpets help you do a top-down analysis of the market to identify stocks or ETFs to trade.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Where might you invest as the year winds down and holiday spending kicks into high gear? A look at historical seasonality trends might help you figure out which sectors tend to outperform in the final months and into the new year.

To begin, the first step is to open up your S&P Sector ETFs ChartLists. If you don’t have an S&P Sectors ChartList, it’s time to create one. My ChartList includes the ETFs listed in the Sector Summary Dashboard panel.

• Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
• Financials (XLF)
• Communications (XLC)
• Industrials (XLI)
• Technology (XLK)
• Real Estate (XLRE)
• Utilities (XLU)
• Energy (XLE)
• Consumer Staples (XLP)
• Materials (XLB)
• Health Care (XLV)

In the View List As dropdown menu on your ChartList, select Seasonality. When your seasonality chart pops up, you can then select each chart in your sector ChartLists.

Because this is an election year, I am setting each chart to a 10-year lookback period (from 2015 to 2024) to capture three election years. I also view each sector relative to the S&P 500 ($SPX) to set a benchmark comparison (you can set this at the bottom of your seasonality chart in the Compare Symbol To box).

Top Two Sectors to Watch from November to January 2025

If you thought Consumer Discretionary spending might spike from the holiday season to January (considering the beginning of the Q4 earnings season), the results might surprise you.

Remember, we’re looking at entire sectors, not individual stocks that might outperform their sector peers. That said, the two sectors that pop out in a seasonality analysis relative to the S&P 500 are Financials (XLF) and Communications Services (XLC). Take a look at XLF’s seasonal performance (see image below).

FIGURE 1. 10-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF XLF. October and November are the strongest months for the Financials relative to the broader market.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If you bought XLF in August, then you are on the right side of seasonality. November happens to be the strongest seasonal month of the year relative to the broader market. While seasonality alone shouldn’t be the only reason to invest in a given sector, the fundamental and political contexts affecting financials happen to align. Let’s take a look at a daily chart of XLF.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF XLF. The Bullish Percent Index in the top panel should buying pressure. The divergence in money flow between the On Balance Volume and the Chaikin Money Flow indicates retail traders may be driving prices higher.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The Bullish Percent Index (BPI) for the financials sector is soaring above 70%, representing the percentage of stocks experiencing bullish P&F breakouts. However, a BPI over 70% also suggests that the index may be overbought.

Note the divergence between the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). While both measure buying pressure, the CMF can reflect “smart money” activity, since it tracks buying/selling pressure relative to daily price ranges, often capturing institutional accumulation or distribution patterns. If OBV rises while CMF declines, that may signal that retail buyers are driving prices up while institutions quietly sell, suggesting potential weakness in the uptrend.

If you’re expecting a pullback, perhaps to enter or add to an existing position, look to the 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) for a potential bounce. Otherwise, watch support at $46 (see blue dotted line). A close below this level could invalidate the uptrend, fulfilling its seasonal weakness heading into January.

The other outstanding seasonal sector chart was XLC, a proxy for the Communications Services sector.

FIGURE 3. SEASONALITY CHART OF XLC. The January profile reflects an interesting observation.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

This chart is extraordinary.

• Over the last 10 years, XLC has had 100% higher closes relative to the S&P 500 in January.
• Its average return, relative to the S&P 500, has been 3.1%, marking its strongest relative seasonal month.

November and December may be weak, but they’re the perfect setup for a strong January. But will January 2025 repeat this historical pattern? Shift over to a daily chart for a closer look.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF XLC. XLC has a similar profile as XLF in that it looks overbought. There could be a pullback in price.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Like financials, XLC’s BPI is extremely bullish at nearly 87%, yet this level (over 70%) warns of potential overbought conditions.

The OBV and CMF are also diverging, hinting that retail investors may be driving prices higher, while the smart money may be holding back. Given the seasonality context of a weak November (which, so far, it isn’t) and a tepid December, you might expect XLC to pull back, giving you a strong setup for a January 2025 surge.

Watch the 20-day- and 50-day SMAs as potential support levels in this case. More importantly, keep a close eye on the two swing points at $91.50 and $90, indicated by blue dotted lines on the chart. A close below $90 could signal significant weakness and, unless institutional buying pressure increases, the risk of further downside remains high.

A Few Tips and Tricks

I’ve demonstrated a few ways to use Seasonality Charts to identify seasonality in stocks and sectors.

• Drill Down on the Seasonality to Prepare, but Not to Predict: Seasonality charts give you historical context to inform the likelihood of a sector performing a certain way if similar seasonal factors influence the market again. Seasonality is NOT a predictor, but an indicator of possible outcomes that certain factors may historically skew.
• Check Sector ETFs Daily Charts: If you’re interested in investing in sector ETFs, then check the daily chart to see if there are any viable entry points.
• Drill Down to the Stock Level: If you’re looking at sectors to spot individual stocks, proceed to the stock level. You may want to repeat the process above, as individual stocks may also have their own seasonality depending on factors like earnings cycles, industry-specific trends, or recurring market events.

However, many other ways to apply seasonality charts to your analysis exist. Check out the StockCharts support page on Seasonality Charts and explore how to apply this tool to your analysis.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this video from StockCharts TV, Julius pulls the curtain back on the updated Relative Rotation Graphs that are now available on the StockCharts website. He demonstrates a myriad of new features, including alignment of the intraday time frames with SharpCharts/ACP, zoom and position control with your mouse, and increased flexibility with selecting and/or highlighting tails. Julius finishes with a brief update on the S&P 500 chart after the elections.

This video was originally published on November 11, 2024. Click anywhere on the icon above to view on our dedicated page for Julius.

Past videos from Julius can be found here.

#StayAlert, -Julius

Good morning and welcome to this week’s Flight Path. Equities saw the “Go” trend continued this week and price gapped higher after some weaker aqua bars. We now see GoNoGo Trend painting strong blue bars at new highs. Treasury bond prices remained in a “NoGo” trend but the week ended with a weaker pink bar. The U.S. commodities index saw a strong end to the week as bright blue “Go” bars returned and the dollar likewise saw strength with strong blue “Go” bars the second half of the week.

$SPY Gaps Higher on Strong Blue “Go” Bars

The GoNoGo chart below shows that after some weakness that saw price fall from the last Go Countertrend Correction Icon (red arrow), price gapped higher on Wednesday and prices soared to new highs in the aftermath of the election. GoNoGo Oscillator was able to recover positive territory after having fallen into negative territory the week before. Now, with the oscillator in positive territory at a value 4 on heavy volume, we know that momentum is on the side of the “Go” trend once again.

A new higher weekly close was painted on the chart this past week. After a couple of consecutive lower closes after the recent Go Countertrend Correction Icon (red arrow), we saw price surge to a new higher close. GoNoGo Oscillator had been falling toward the zero level but reversed course sharply this week and is now breaching overbought territory at a value of 5. We will see how much higher price can go from here. We will look for it to at least consolidate at these levels going forward.

Treasury Rates Cool after Higher High

Treasury bond yields saw the “Go” trend continue this week but we saw a little weakness creep in with GoNoGo Trend painting an aqua bar. This comes after we saw a Go Countertrend Correction Icon (red arrow) indicating that price may struggle to go higher in the short term. We will watch to see if price finds support here and sets a new higher low. GoNoGo Oscillator has fallen to test the zero line from above and we know that if the “Go” trend is to remain healthy it should find support at that level. If it can rally back into positive territory then we will know that momentum is resurgent in the direction of the underlying “Go” trend.

The Dollar Jumps Higher

Last week we saw some weakness in the “Go” trend as the indicator painted a string of weaker aqua bars following a Go Countertrend Correction Icon (red arrow). This Icon warned us that price may struggle to go higher in the short term. As price fell from its most recent high, we turned our attention to the oscillator panel. GoNoGo Oscillator fell to test the zero level and quickly found support as volume increased (darker blue of oscillator line). Now, with price making new higher highs and GoNoGo Trend once again painting strong blue bars we know that momentum is resurgent in the direction of the “Go” trend.

Today Carl compares this week’s Trump Rally with the rally we saw after Reagan was elected in 1980. There are similarities and differences. The Trump rally has lifted certain sectors of the market as well as Cryptocurrencies. While the Reagan rally had different catalysts.

The market continues to make new all-time highs. Carl gives us the full analysis picture as he covers the market in general as well as Bitcoin, Gold, the Dollar and many more.

It is time for another review of the Magnificent Seven in the short and intermediate terms. Some are positioned well while others are showing weakness.

Erin covers sector rotation with a special study of the small-cap stocks that are soaring higher on the Trump election. Are overbought conditions a problem? Overbought conditions can persist in a bull market move and that is exactly what we have right now.

The pair finish the program looking at viewer symbol requests which were heavy on Semiconductors. How do they compare with NVDA?

Join us live on Mondays at Noon ET by registering to attend at https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_D6iAp-C1S6SebVpQIYcC6g

We love doing the free trading room, but we do have to make a living! Contemplate getting a subscription to the DP Alert which sets the table for all of your trades! Click to subscribe now! https://www.decisionpoint.com/products.html

Use coupon code: DPTRIAL2 to get two free weeks of any subscription!

01:33 Trump Rally vs. Reagan Rally

06:21 Market Overview

14:41 Magnificent Seven

21:15 Sector Rotation and Small-Caps

29:42 Symbol Requests

Introducing the new Scan Alert System!

Delivered to your email box at the end of the market day. You’ll get the results of our proprietary scans that Erin uses to pick her “Diamonds in the Rough” for the DecisionPoint Diamonds Report. Get all of the results and see which ones you like best! Only $29/month! Or, use our free trial to try it out for two weeks using coupon code: DPTRIAL2. Click HERE to subscribe NOW!

Learn more about DecisionPoint.com:

Watch the latest episode of the DecisionPointTrading Room on DP’s YouTube channel here!

Try us out for two weeks with a trial subscription!

Use coupon code: DPTRIAL2 Subscribe HERE!

Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin

(c) Copyright 2024 DecisionPoint.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

Helpful DecisionPoint Links:

Trend Models

Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)

On Balance Volume

Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)

ITBM and ITVM

SCTR Ranking

Bear Market Rules

Enjoying these HUGE rallies is much easier when you have confidence the stock market is in a secular bull market and heading higher. It also helps when you enter a period of historical strength – the absolute best strength that we see anytime throughout the calendar year. This combination can be extremely powerful and we saw that combo result in surging U.S. equity prices last week. If we look at a daily RRG that includes our major indices and all sectors, you’ll see where the relative strength was:

I highlighted the relationship between consumer discretionary (XLY) and consumer staples (XLP) and you can see rather clearly the direction that each was headed on a relative basis last week. I’ll get to the significance of that in just a second, but I want to first highlight ALL of the areas in the leading and weakening quadrants. Remember, even those stocks in the weakening quadrant show relative strength. Leaders will sometimes pause in this quadrant before returning to the leading quadrant. This RRG highlights the areas of strength over the past few days (since Election Day):

If you’re a momentum trader, the above RRG is your cheat sheet.

There are plenty of trading strategies and scans to uncover solid opportunities. One very simple scan to consider is:

This is a scan of small and mid cap industrials stocks with average volume recently over 200,000 shares and excellent relative strength, at least based on StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) scores.

This scan returned 46 stocks, which is quite manageable, in my opinion. Here are the 10 returned having the highest SCTR scores:

These charts all look great, but many are very extended and overbought currently. I’d prefer keeping them on a Watch List and waiting for a pullback to perhaps rising 20-day EMAs before entering. Instead of buying companies with extended charts, here’s one that just made a key breakout:

ERJ is one of the best stocks in its industry group – aerospace ($DJUSAS). I believe it’s important to stick with industry leaders while their relative strength is in an uptrend. Once that reverses, it’s time to find new leaders.

We’ve been planning for this type of rotation to small caps, mid caps, financials, and industrials, and our two key portfolios, Model and Aggressive, illustrate beautifully the difference it makes when you’re positioned perfectly:

Our current quarter runs from August 19th through November 19th. We “draft” equal-weighted stocks in each portfolio every 90 days, which we’ll be doing again in a little over a week. Our Model Portfolio has TRIPLED the S&P 500 over the past 3 months and more than doubled the S&P 500 over the past 6 years. The Aggressive Portfolio, which typically invests in small and mid cap stocks, has absolutely exploded higher this quarter as these asset classes have become preferred groups. It’s on the verge of quadrupling the S&P 500 return. 25% return in a quarter goes a LONG way in helping you meet your financial goals.

Currently, the new leaders are as I spelled out earlier. You MUST take advantage of these opportunities when they present themselves. Next Saturday, November 16th, at 11:00am ET, I’m hosting a 100% FREE webinar, “Capitalizing on Small Cap and Mid Cap Strength”. CLICK HERE to register NOW and save your seat. Seating will be limited, so don’t miss out!

Happy trading!