Are you looking to generate consistent weekly income from the stock market?

In this video, Tony Zhang breaks down some of the top income-generating options strategies that traders and investors can use to create a consistent cash flow. Whether you’re just getting started or looking to refine your options trading skills, this is a must-watch for anyone serious about income generation through options.

Tony dives into three of the most effective options strategies:

• Covered calls
• Cash-secured puts
• Credit spreads

But that’s just a start.

Tony demonstrates how to leverage the StockCharts Scan Engine, organize and monitor trading opportunities using ChartLists, and analyze each trade in the OptionsPlay Strategy Center so you can utilize the full power of the tools available to you in the OptionsPlay Add-On for StockCharts.  

This video premiered on May 20, 2025.  

If you regularly follow the SCTR Reports (StockCharts Technical Rank), you’ll notice that some top-ranked stocks aren’t just individual standouts but groupings that call attention to particular sectors, industries, or subgroups within the two.

That’s exactly what happened Tuesday morning. A couple of high-ranking stocks pointed to a growing trend in the thematic subsector of quantum computing.

Quantum Computing Stocks Light Up the SCTR Reports

Occupying the top ranks of the Mid Cap SCTR Top 10 list are quantum computing stocks D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) and Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI).

FIGURE 1. SCTR REPORTS – MID CAP TOP 10. QBTS and RGTI, occupying the top of the list, signal strength in the quantum computing subsector.

The quantum computing subsector made headlines Tuesday morning, with QBTS leading the charge. 

QBTS Leads on Breakout News and Bullish Technical Scans

QBTS shares surged after the company unveiled Advantage2, its most advanced quantum system to date. A quick look at QBTS’s Symbol Summary showed the stock appearing across multiple bullish technical scans on Tuesday, including New 52-week Highs, P&F Double Top Breakout, and Runaway Gap Ups.

Other quantum names, including RGTI, also saw gains, highlighting growing momentum in the space. 

RGTI Gains Momentum with Unique Technical Setups

RGTI’s Symbol Summary profile revealed a different set of predefined scans, suggesting unique technical setups driving its price action. RGTI was triggered in the P&F Ascending Triple Top Breakout, Elder Bar Turned Blue, and P&F Double Top Breakout predefined scans on Tuesday.

With quantum computing stocks like QBTS and RGTI surging and showing unusually strong technical strength, assessing their investment potential requires more than a few headlines. Comparative strength, broader performance of sectors to which they belong, and the underlying factors shaping their price action are some other factors to consider.

FIGURE 2. PERFCHARTS OF QBTS, RGTI, XLK, AND QQQ. At these levels of outperformance, it becomes difficult to separate justified valuations from pure FOMO. As the PerfCharts comparison shows, RTGI and QBTS stocks are outperforming their sector and broader tech-heavy index. 

Technical Breakout: What to Watch with QBTS’ Next Move

From a technical perspective, does either stock present a favorable structure for a market entry? To evaluate this, let’s start with a daily chart of QBTS.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF QBTS. An impressive parabolic run, support on the downside is relatively clear.

QBTS broke out above its four-month trading range, shooting up to an all-time high of $17.50 on Tuesday’s session, sending the Relative Strength Index (RSI) deep into overbought territory. The Price Channels identify potential areas of support based on previous swing highs and lows.

If QBTS is overbought because its valuations are too high, then a pullback is likely to follow. Whether you should buy the dip depends on your fundamental thesis, but technically, if you decide to enter a position, consider this:

• QBTS is likely to find support at the top of its previous range, highlighted in green.
• If it falls below that, there’s another support range, shaded yellow, that marks another set of minor swing highs in the middle of the previous trading range.
• Below that, however, is support at a low range, shaded red, where the stock has reversed several times over the last few months. 

However, if QBTS drops into the zone between the yellow and red support levels, it could signal a meaningful loss of momentum and growing weakness in the stock’s trend.

That’s why volume becomes especially important here. Note how volume has risen with each successive surge—an encouraging sign of accumulation that somehow dropped at each price peak. If QBTS holds above the top of its previous range, watch for continued volume support; strong follow-through should be backed by equally strong participation.

RGTI Chart Shows Upside Potential—But With Caution

Now let’s look at the second one up on the SCTR Top 10 list. Here’s a daily chart of RGTI.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF RGTI. The stock is moving steadily upward, but unlike QBTS, there’s no outstanding catalyst to trigger an immediate and outsize move.

Following a fourth bounce at the $7 support range, RGTI broke above resistance, almost hesitantly, at $11. The Volume-by-Price overlay on the left side of the chart shows heavy trading activity in this range, suggesting it could become a strong support level now that resistance has been broken. The ZigZag line further clarifies the support and resistance levels, helping to visualize the stock’s overall trend structure.

The On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator in the bottom panel reflects steady buying pressure. At the same time, the RSI, currently at 61 and rising, suggests the stock still has room to climb before entering overbought territory. 

If RGTI maintains its upward trajectory, the next meaningful resistance level ahead will be at $16, marking its January high. However, whether it gets there may depend less on chart patterns and more on underlying catalysts.

In other words, is RGTI riding the wave of bullish sentiment in quantum computing stocks, or does it have a meaningful fundamental catalyst driving its move higher? On that note, what about QBTS?

Wall Street Weigh In: Real Catalysts or Quantum Hype?

Be careful. Analysts are cautiously optimistic about both stocks, pointing to real catalysts like RGTI’s government partnerships and QBTS’s Advantage2 launch. However, some on Wall Street caution that recent gains may be driven more by hype than fundamentals, with commercial adoption still a long way off.

Action Steps

• Monitor the support levels. For QBTS, watch the green zone (prior range top) for dip-buying potential; deeper moves into yellow or red zones may signal weakening momentum.
• Track volume behavior. Continued surges should be matched with strong volume to confirm trend strength.
• Stay grounded. If you’re trading, closely follow the technicals. If you’re investing, make sure your thesis includes realistic expectations on commercialization timelines.

At the Close

Quantum computing stocks like QBTS and RGTI are showing impressive momentum, backed by technical strength and growing investor interest. But while the setups look promising, remember to stay disciplined. Monitor support levels, watch volume closely, and don’t lose sight of the long runway ahead for true commercial adoption.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this video, Frank dives into some of his favorite features on StockCharts.com. He then dissects the S&P 500 and Bitcoin price action, before exploring the the XLK Technology ETF’s explosive move off the lows. He also highlights a few recent trade ideas and setups worth watching. Get trade ideas and chart setups worth watching in today’s technical review.

This video originally premiered on May 20, 2025.

You can view previously recorded videos from Frank and other industry experts at this link.

Learn how to analyze stock price gaps with Dave! In this video, Dave discusses the different types of price gaps, why all price gaps are not the same, and how you can use the StockCharts platform to identify key levels and signals to follow on charts where price gaps occur. Charts discussed include the S&P 500, First Solar (FSLR), Microsoft (MSFT), and more!

This video originally premiered on May 19, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

Earnings season continues with names like Home Depot, Palo Alto Networks, and BJ’s Wholesale flashing signals that investors shouldn’t ignore. Whether you’re following home improvement trends, cybersecurity growth, or retail resilience, these stocks offer insight into where the stock market could be headed next.

Let’s break down the charts, decode the earnings, and explore the setups that could shape your next move.

DIY Boom Fizzling: What Home Depot’s Earnings Might Tell Us

Home Depot, Inc. (HD) reports earnings on Tuesday, and its results will give a peek at how the DIY home retail investor is changing their spending habits. HD’s stock price has struggled and is down about 2.5% year-to-date, but well off its lows. Like most stocks reporting earnings this quarter, investors will listen for any revisions to HD’s guidance, especially considering ongoing economic challenges such as high interest rates and their impact on consumer spending.

Let’s look at the daily chart of HD.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF HOME DEPOT, INC. STOCK PRICE. The $377 area and 200-day moving average act as the middle road for a potential setup.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The chart of HD stock displayed a head-and-shoulders top last quarter, which we warned about. Sadly, that pattern broke to the downside and hit its target some $50 lower. Since bottoming, shares have retreated to where they were before their last report.

The set-up is a coin flip, with the $377 area and 200-day simple moving average (SMA) acting as the middle road. Stock prices are known to gap and trend for roughly two weeks in the gap’s direction before reversing direction.

If HD’s stock price dips, there are clear support and potential entry points. Look for the rising 50-day SMA to hold at around the $360 level. A dip and hold here would be good for the longer-term turnaround story and the bullish case. If there’s a break, wait for a deeper drop to enter HD. A gap above the 200-day SMA should lead to near-term smooth sailing and enable a trader to use the average as a great stop loss guide.

Palo Alto Networks (PANW): Can It Keep Climbing?

It’s one of the biggest names in cybersecurity, and it’s on the verge of getting back to its all-time highs.

Fundamentally, Palo Alto Networks’ annual recurring revenue (ARR) continues to be the significant growth driver. In Q1, ARR grew 40% year-over-year to $4.5 billion. For Q2 2025, the company projected ARR between $4.70 billion and $4.75 billion. Investors will be keen to see if the company meets or exceeds this guidance.

Technically, we wanted to look at this chart on a longer time frame. The five-year weekly chart of PANW below shows the trend is stalling under a double top at the $205 level. There are some good signs that it may be able to get back on track and push to new highs.

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF PALO ALTO NETWORKS STOCK PRICE. Monitor the rising 50-week SMA. Will it hold that level after earnings? The MACD is displaying a bullish crossover, which signals a favorable risk/reward setup.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The key level to watch for the bulls is the rising 50-week (blue line) SMA. Shares had consistently trended above this level since initially surpassing it in early 2023. Price action briefly broke below that average, but recaptured it two weeks ago. Now it must hold that level, so watch $178.50 for support on any weakness.

The technical indicator that caught my eye was the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD), which just experienced a bullish crossover. This has a history of leading to great risk/reward setups in a stock. The chart highlights the current crossover and the last two notable ones in green to demonstrate the indicator’s past performance.

Any upside movement should take PANW’s stock price back to the $205 level and a re-test of all-time highs.

BJ’s Wholesale (BJ): Quietly Outperforming

BJ’s has quietly enjoyed a strong 2025, despite tariff talk and negative consumer sentiment. Shares of BJ are up 29% year-to-date and over 44% over the last 52 weeks. While its $14 billion market cap pales in comparison to the $450 billion size of its biggest wholesale competitor in Costco (COST), BJ continues to exceed expectations and thrive.

BJ’s stock price has rallied after four of the last five earnings reports, with an average gain of 8%, including a 12% rally last quarter. Coming into the results, the stock price is starting to rally back towards all-time highs. Maybe this will be the catalyst to break out even higher.

Technically, there is much overhead resistance at the $120 level (see daily chart of BJ below). A break above there should lead to another $10–$15 on the upside. 

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF BJ STOCK. Note the overhead resistance at around the $120 level. On the downside, there’s support at $108 and the rising 100-day SMA.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes only.

Weakness has given investors opportunities as well. There is clear support at the $108 level and the rising 100-day SMA (in green). The long-term trend has been strong and, barring a major change in the fiscal direction of BJ’s, the trends should continue to be your friend and give solid risk/reward entry points. 

Final Thoughts

Charts aren’t just squiggly lines. They’re tools to help you make smarter decisions with your hard-earned money. 

Whether you’re eyeing a potential rebound in Home Depot, the strength of cybersecurity, or a quiet winner like BJ’s, remember: technical patterns can give you an edge, but so can patience and perspective.

Sector Rotation Shakeup: Industrials Take the Lead

Another week of significant movement in the sector landscape has reshaped the playing field. The Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) paints a picture of shifting dynamics, with some surprising developments in sector leadership. Let’s dive into the details and see what’s happening under the hood.

1. (6) Industrials – (XLI)*
2. (4) Financials – (XLF)*
3. (1) Utilities – (XLU)*
4. (2) Communication Services – (XLC)*
5. (3) Consumer Staples – (XLP)*
6. (8) Technology – (XLK)*
7. (5) Real-Estate – (XLRE)*
8. (9) Materials – (XLB)*
9. (11) Energy – (XLE)*
10. (10) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)
11. (7) Healthcare – (XLV)*

Weekly RRG

On the weekly RRG, Utilities and Consumer Staples maintain their high positions on the RS-Ratio scale. However, there are signs of waning momentum. Staples has rolled over within the leading quadrant and is now showing a negative heading. Utilities, while still strong, are losing some of their relative momentum.

Financials and Communication Services are hanging on in the weakening quadrant, but their tails are relatively short — indicating potential for a quick turnaround.

The show’s star, Industrials, has made a beeline for the leading quadrant, climbing on the RS-Ratio scale while maintaining a positive RRG heading.

Daily RRG

Switching to the daily RRG, we get a more granular view. Utilities, Staples, and Financials are found in the lagging quadrant, but Staples and Utilities are showing signs of life, turning back up towards the improving quadrant.

Financials, meanwhile, are hugging the benchmark.

The daily chart confirms Industrials’ strength, mirroring its weekly performance.

Communication Services, however, is showing some worrying signs — it’s dropped into the weakening quadrant on the daily RRG, confirming its vulnerable position on the weekly chart.

Industrials

XLI flexes its muscles, pushing against overhead resistance around the $144 mark.

A break above this level could trigger a further acceleration in price.

The relative strength line has already broken out of its consolidation pattern, propelling both RRG lines above 100 and driving the XLI tail deeper into the leading quadrant.

Financials

The financial sector continues its upward trajectory, trading above its previous high and closing in on the all-time high of around $53.

Like Industrials, a break above this resistance could spark a new leg up.

The RS line is moving sideways within its rising channel, causing the RRG lines to flatten—something to watch.

Utilities

XLU has finally broken through its overhead resistance, approaching its all-time high around $83.

After months of pushing against the $80 level, this breakout is a clear sign of strength.

The RS line is still grappling with its own resistance, but the RS-Ratio line continues its gradual ascent.

Communication Services

While XLC is moving higher on the price chart, its relative strength is lagging.

The sideways movement in the RS line is causing both RRG lines to move lower, with the RS-Momentum line already below 100.

This sector is rapidly approaching the lagging quadrant on the daily RRG—definitely one to watch for potential risks.

Consumer Staples

XLP is approaching the upper boundary of its trading range ($83-$85), where it is running into resistance. The inability to push higher while the market is moving up is causing relative strength to falter.

The recent strength has pushed both RRG lines well above 100, but the current loss of relative strength is now causing the RRG-Lines to roll over.

The tail is still comfortably within the leading quadrant, but this loss of momentum could signal a potential setback.

Portfolio Performance

The model portfolio’s defensive positioning has led to some underperformance relative to SPY, with the gap now just under 6%.

However, the model is sticking to its guns, maintaining a defensive stance with Staples and Utilities firmly in the top five.

It’s worth noting that Healthcare has now definitively dropped out of the top ranks. Nevertheless, with Staples and Utilities holding firm, and Technology and Consumer Discretionary still in the bottom half, the overall positioning remains cautious.

These are the periods when patience is key. We need to let the model do its work and wait for new, meaningful relative trends to emerge. It’s not always comfortable to endure underperformance, but it’s often necessary to capture longer-term outperformance.

#StayAlert, –Julius

Looking for breakout stocks and top market leaders? Follow along Mary Ellen shares stock breakouts, analyst upgrades, and sector leadership trends to help you trade strong stocks in today’s market.

In this week’s episode, Mary Ellen reveals the stocks leading the market higher and explains what’s fueling their strength. She highlights base breakouts, analyst upgrades, and leadership stocks gaining momentum. In addition, she screens for emerging breakout candidates you should have on your radar.

This video originally premiered May 16, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

We’ve all heard the classic market maxim, “Sell in May and go away.”  For many investors, that’s the introduction to market seasonality that suggests a six month period where it’s just best to avoid stocks altogether.

Through my own experience, complemented with interviews with seasonality experts like Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Traders Almanac, I’ve learned to treat seasonal patterns as tendencies instead of certainties.  Seasonal patterns tell you what is likely to happen, barring any external forces that would cause the markets to deviate from their normal seasonal patterns.

“Sell in May” is Really About Weakness in Autumn

We can use the seasonality charts on StockCharts to try and identify patterns going back through years of market history.  We’ll start with 20 years of data, from 2005 to 2024.  Each bar represents the percent of the observations where the month ended higher than it began.  The numbers found at the bottom of each bar shows the average return for that calendar month based on the years in question.

Going back for the last 20 years, we can see that the March-April-May period is actually fairly strong.  Those months have been up 75-80% of the time, representing the most consistent three-month period of all.  But note how the next five months, with the exception of a pretty strong July, are basically the weakest part of the year?

Join us for a FREE webinar on Wednesday 5/21 at 1:00PM ET as we present “Sell in May 2025: Seasonal Strategy or Outdated Myth?”  We’ll dig deeper into the history of “Sell in May,” analyze summer trends in recent years, and focus on signs to follow in the weeks and months ahead!  Sign up HERE for this free event!

It turns out that the reason why “sell in May” has often worked out is less about May being super weak, but more about how major lows have usually come in the fall months.  Since the COVID low in early 2020, we’ve experienced major lows in September or October every year except for 2024.

Spring and Early Summer Have Been Crazy Strong

When we focus on the last five years, we can see that the May-June-July period has been consistently strong.  In fact, May and July have seen bullish trends every year since 2019.  So while investors often talk about the “summer doldrums” and weakness into the hot summer months, the recent evidence would suggest otherwise.

The weakest months since the COVID low have actually been January, February, September, and October.  So again, it’s been less about weakness in the spring, and much more about weaker price action into the traditional low in September or October.  Also note the strength in November, where the market is almost always rallying off a major low and setting up for a positive finish to the calendar year!

Will 2025 Follow the Normal Seasonal Pattern?

As I mentioned earlier, I like to think of seasonal patterns as tendencies.  There is no guarantee that July will be strong, and there is no way I can tell you for sure that the market will make yet another major low in September.  Seasonality tells you the general bias to the markets, but mindful investors know the most important evidence is price itself.

Given the extreme rally off the early April low, we’ve seen a rapid rotation from bearish sentiment to more bullish outlooks as investors have started to believe in the new uptrend phase.  This week’s price gap higher for the S&P 500 could provide a perfect support range to monitor in the coming weeks and months.

If the S&P 500 is able to hold 5750, and remain above the support range set from the gap earlier this month, then perhaps the equity markets will follow the same pattern as recent years and remain strong into August.

If, however, the S&P 500 is unable to hold this key support range, and we also confirm that breakdown with weaker momentum readings and deteriorating breadth conditions, then the S&P 500 may be charting a new course through what has become a strong period in the calendar year.

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

If you didn’t check in on the stock market the last couple of weeks, you might be surprised to see how strong they were this week.

The three major stock indexes — S&P 500 ($SPX), Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ), and Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) — broke through their 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) and are about 3–5% away from their all-time highs.

The Dow took a bit of a hit early this week, mostly because shares of UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (UNH) took a tumble. By Friday, though, the Dow recovered.

A Clearer Outlook Ahead

After dealing with an uncertain market, we’re finally seeing some encouraging signs. Large-cap growth stocks are trying to regain the lead, market breadth is improving (i.e. broader participation), and the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) has cooled off significantly.

Another helpful signal — the Bullish Percent Index (BPI) — is above 50% for the major indexes. This suggests that bulls are in control. In the 11 S&P sectors, there’s been a switcheroo. Consumer Staples and Utilities now have a BPI below 50%.

FIGURE 1: BULLISH PERCENT INDEXES FOR THE S&P SECTORS. Consumer Staples and Utilities are below 50%.

Want to dig into this yourself? You can view the full picture on the Market Summary page at StockCharts.com.

Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

AI Stocks Back in the Spotlight

If you’ve been following the buzz around artificial intelligence (AI), you know it’s a hot area. This week proved that AI stocks still had their mojo. A mix of headlines, from new global investments in AI to easing tech regulations, gave these stocks a boost.

The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) jumped over 10% this week. And NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), one of the biggest names in AI, surged 16% for the week. The stock is now trading above its 200-day SMA and approaching its February high, which could act as a resistance level. This is the first time NVDA’s stock price broke above its 200-day SMA after breaking below it on February 27.

Other big names like Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) and Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. (TSM) also saw solid gains.

FIGURE 2. SEMICONDUCTORS MARKETCARPET. Note that NVDA, AVGO, and TSM saw strong gains this week.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Investors Turning Toward “Offense”

Investors are rotating into offensive sectors such as Technology and Consumer Discretionary and moving away from traditionally “safe” areas like Utilities and Staples. This is an indication that investors are feeling more confident.

News of lower tariffs between the U.S. and China has eased fears, which is reflected in the performance of bellwether industries such as Home Builders, Transportation, and Retail. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) took a big hit on the possibility of high tariffs but bounced in early April. This week, the ETF gapped up and is now trading above its 200-day SMA (see chart below).

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF SPDR S&P RETAIL ETF (XRT). After getting hammered, XRT is showing signs of recovery. The stock is now gaining some traction. It’s trading above its 200-day SMA, and momentum is strengthening.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

XRT’s relative strength index (RSI) is rising above 70 and the percentage price oscillator (PPO) is well above zero. Both indicators suggest a rise in momentum.

A Word of Caution: Consumers Are Still Nervous

Amidst the excitement, we can’t ignore one concerning signal: consumer sentiment.. The latest reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index came in at 50.8, which is pretty close to the June 2022 reading of 50, when inflation was over 9%.

Results showed that consumers are worried about inflation — the expectation was a high 7.3%. Walmart (WMT) executives even mentioned during its recent earnings call that higher tariffs might lead to price increases. This is something to keep in the back of your mind because, when consumer sentiment weakens, it could ripple through the stock market.

Inflation expectations are starting to climb higher. The probability of the interest rate cuts has dropped, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Cuts in June and July are off the table now. The chart below is worth adding to one of your ChartLists.

FIGURE 4: INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ARE CREEPING HIGHER. It’s worth monitoring this chart because higher prices lead to less consumer spending and declining consumer confidence. This can be a headwind for equity markets.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The Bottom Line

When the stock market reverses course as quickly as it did this week, it doesn’t hurt to be skeptical. Before getting caught up in the euphoria, keep an eye on things like offensive vs defensive sector rotation, market breadth indicators, and key fundamentals such as inflation expectations. If inflation heats up again, the Fed will be reluctant to cut interest rates. This is the kind of thing that can put the brakes on a market rally.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 42,654 (+ 3.41%)
• S&P 500: 5,958.38 (+ 5.27%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 19,211 (+7.15%)
• $VIX: 17.24 (-21.28%)
• Best performing sector for the week: Technology
• Worst performing sector for the week: Health Care
• Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR); Nebius Group NV (NBIS); NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG); Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD); Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)

On the Radar Next Week

• May PMI Flash
• April Existing Home Sales
• Earnings from Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s Companies (LOW), Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL), XPeng Inc. (XPEV), Snowflake (SNOW), Baidu Inc. (BIDU), and several others.
• Fed speeches from Bostic, Jefferson, Williams, and others.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

SPY and QQQ crossed above their 200-day SMAs with big moves on Monday, and held above these long-term moving averages the entire week. The V-Reversal was extraordinary and SPY seems short-term overbought, but this cross above the 200 day SMA cross is a bullish signal for the most important market benchmark. Despite a bullish signal, long-term moving averages are trend-following indicators and it is important to set realistic expectations.

***** This is an abbreviated version of a research report covering the 200-day SMA, performance improvements and a twist for QQQ. Recent reports at TrendInvestorPro covered the V-Reversal, the Bottoming Process and an Exit Strategy for the Zweight Breadth Thrust. Click here to take a trial and get immediate access. *****

The chart below shows SPY with the 200-day SMA (blue). This 200-day cross captured two big uptrends since 2020 and foreshadowed the bear market in 2022. Even though these three signals look great, there were plenty of whipsaws along the way. SPY crossed the 200-day SMA 141 times since 2005, which averages 7 crosses per year. Averages can be deceptive because some years have more crosses than others. SPY did not cross its 200-day in 2021 and 2024, but there were 22 crosses between January 2022 and March 2023.

The indicator window shows Percent above MA (1,200,1) to better highlight these crosses. It turns positive (green) with a bullish cross and negative (red) with a bearish cross. The values are the percentage difference between the close and the 200-day SMA.  

There is no such thing as a perfect indicator. Trend-following indicators are great at catching big trends, but they are also prone to whipsaws (failed signals). Whipsaws are simply the price of admission for a trend-following strategy. We must take the good (big trends) with the bad (whipsaws). As the chart above confirms, trend-following works over time because one good trend pays for the whipsaws.

Chartists can improve 200-day SMA signals with a little smoothing. For example, use a 5-day SMA instead of the close. Since 2005, the 5-day SMA crossed its 200-day SMA 55 times, which averages out to 3 per year. Fewer signals means fewer whipsaws. Also note that this smoothing generated higher returns and lower drawdowns.

The chart above shows the SPY with Percent above MA (5,200,1). This indicator captures the percentage difference between the 5 and 200 day SMAs. Instead of 22 crosses between January 2022 and March 2023, the 5-day SMA crossed the 200-day SMA just 8 times. This indicator is part of the TIP Indicator Edge Plugin for StockCharts ACP.

We can reduce whipsaws even more by adding a signal filter. This next section will cover signal filters and performance metrics for SPY. We then show how other ETFs perform and add little twist to improve performance for QQQ signals. This section continues for subscribers to TrendInvestorPro. Click here to take a trial and get immediate access. 

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