As the cycle of uncertainty continues to yield confusion than clarity, investors are again caught having to decide between taking an offensive and defensive posture in the market. The tough part in today’s market environment is how fast situations can shift. With headlines driving the action, sentiment can flip on a dime. So how do you position yourself when breaking news drives the market?

No one can predict how the stock market will play out in the coming months. But keeping an eye on the ratio of “offense” to “defense” stocks can offer some clues. This may not give you a decisive trade scenario, but it can provide a clearer context that can help you form a more bullish or bearish decisive bias.

For this article, let’s refer to the StockCharts Market Summary tool and zoom in on the Technology vs. Utilities ratio (XLK:XLU), which you can find in the Key Ratios – Offense vs Defense panel.

Why XLK:XLU Ratio Matters

This ratio compares the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) with the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU), both being sector proxies (see the one-year ratio chart below).

FIGURE 1. TECH VS UTILITIES RATIO: From a one-year perspective, utilities have outperformed tech.

The key question is whether capital will continue chasing innovation and growth or seek shelter in the relative stability of power grids and water systems. The answer, when it eventually comes, could signal the economy’s next move.

On the one-year chart, the XLK:XLU ratio shows an attempted recovery from a general decline. Note how the ratio percentage is negative. That’s because, over the past year, utilities have generally performed stronger than tech. But we’re seeing tech’s performance strengthening, and a sustained move toward (and eventually into) positive territory would suggest a stronger shift in bullish sentiment.

Notably, XLK and XLU are trading at their respective highs, with XLK already breaking above it. The question remains which sector may be topping or outpacing the other in a more sustained manner.

XLK Breaks Higher: A Bullish Signal?

Here’s a daily chart of XLK.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF XLK. A proxy for the tech sector, XLK has broken above resistance. The key question now is whether it can hold above this level and follow through, or if it’s topping out amid the current geopolitical uncertainties.

XLK’s surge from its April bottom, including the gap above $243, signals bullish momentum. It’s also trading above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) while its StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) score has climbed above 76, signaling technical strength. Volume-wise, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) shows renewed strength in buying pressure, though CMF levels are down considerably since their highest levels in May.

XLU’s Rally: Strong, But Losing Steam

Compare XLK’s chart to XLU’s daily chart.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF XLU. The Utilities sector is challenging its highs, but is XLU losing steam, and will XLK eventually outpace it?

XLU is attempting to challenge its highs near the $82.50 range, though it hasn’t penetrated the top. Its SCTR score is also bullish at 77, though it’s not as convincing as that of XLK. XLU’s CMF reading also shows weakened buying pressure, as its levels are barely hovering above the zero line.

What These Charts Are Saying

Taken together, these charts aren’t about calling the next big trade. They’re about reading near-term sentiment and getting a feel for where investors think the economy is headed amid this tense geopolitical backdrop.

When both offense and defense are rising, it suggests uncertainty, with capital flowing in both directions. But when one sector pulls ahead, it may signal where institutional money is placing its bets. Whether you’re a short-term trader or long-term investor, tracking this ratio can help anchor your outlook, especially as global events continue to fuel market volatility.

Keep XLK and XLU on your ChartLists and continue to monitor this ratio, along with other comparative tools on the Market Summary page. Also, pay close attention to news developments.

At the Close

The XLK:XLU ratio might not give you the most comprehensive or surefire signal about investor sentiment, but it’s an important piece of the puzzle. It can help you see the bigger picture, which is a crucial step before placing any trades.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this video, Mary Ellen opens with a look at the S&P 500, noting that the index remains above its 10-day average despite a brief pullback—a sign of healthy market breadth. She points to ongoing sector leadership in technology, while observing that energy and defense stocks are breaking higher and offering fresh opportunities. From there, Mary Ellen shares stocks that experienced strong earnings, talks AI-related stocks that are on the move higher, and looks at winners and losers following the passage of the Genius Act.

This video originally premiered June 20, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

This week, we’re keeping an eye on three major stocks that are reporting earnings. Two of them have been beaten down and are looking to turn things around, while the third has had a tremendous run and is looking to keep its extraordinary momentum going. Let’s take a closer look at each one.

Could FedEx Be Ready for a Comeback?

FedEx (FDX) had a rough go last quarter, missing its EPS estimates and slashing its full-year outlook thanks to softening demand and losing a USPS contract. That combination of earnings shortfall and downgraded guidance spooked investors, with FDX’s stock price tumbling more than 10% in the days following the release. After “Liberation Day,” share prices traded even lower.

FedEx continues to take steps to cut costs and segment spinoffs to streamline and turn the stock around. Can FedEx do it fast enough? Any positive forward guidance will be critical to drive a sustained rebound in the stock’s price.

From a technical perspective, FDX shares have bounced back to the levels traded after its last quarterly results. The stock price is coiling between its longer-term downtrend and near-term uptrend from the lows.

The good news is that shares have recaptured their 50-day moving average; the bad news is that price is bumping up to its longer-term downtrend. Something’s got to give.

• The average move post-earnings is +/-5.6%. 
• An upward move should break it out of this downtrend and set shares on a path towards its 200-day moving average, which is just under $255.
• A downward move would break the near-term downtrend, but could pause around the 50-day moving average and a consolidation area around $215.

Playing this stock into earnings has been a fool’s game. Wait for the dust to settle before jumping in. That could mean:

• A break below the 50-day moving average and a move to the $200 level.
• A gap up, which could mean the end of this downtrend and should be chased to the 200-day moving average.

Micron: Time for a Breather?

Micron Technology (MU) has been on fire since selling off during the “Liberation Day” chaos. It broke below a major support area, but quickly recaptured it.

The pendulum price action was a wild swing in the opposite direction. MU’s stock price broke out above a major resistance area and is in a precarious position as Micron heads into Wednesday’s quarterly results.

MU’s stock price is extremely overbought and may struggle to keep this upward momentum going. We have seen other tech stocks, such as Broadcom (AVGO) and CrowdStrike (CRWD), experience similar moves going into earnings. Both stocks reported solid quarters and guided higher, yet sold off.

Given the 100% gain from its April 7 lows, the overbought condition, and natural support areas (old resistance) at the $114 area, a pullback to here seems logical. The area below $114 to watch is the rising 200-day moving average, which is around $96 and seems like a better entry point than chasing the stock now.

Good earnings numbers should see a small fade to the $114 area and then hold. That is what happened in other stocks with big run-ups into earnings: a fade back to the recent breakout. If Micron reports numbers below estimates and/or weak guidance, expect a deeper pullback to the 200-day, which should act as strong support if tested again. Any further rally should be faded as MU nears $150 and all-time highs. That could put its relative strength index (RSI) into the 90s; historically, that doesn’t hold for very long.

Nike (NKE): Waiting for a Spark

Nike (NKE) has traded lower after eight of its last nine earnings reports, including the last six in a row. Shares are still down 66% from their 2021 all-time highs and, year-to-date, are lower by 21%.

It has been a tough environment for the iconic sports brand. Shareholders have been anxiously waiting for new management to turn things around, but high inventories and now tariff concerns have stymied any sense of a sustainable rally.

Technically speaking, things aren’t looking good. Investors are looking for any sign of a turnaround or a tradable bottom. While there has been minor progress coming off the lows, there’s nothing to indicate the stock is back.

Momentum indicators have turned bearish. The RSI has crossed below its midline, while the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) had a bearish crossover.

Entering the week, the stock is at a good support level around $59, which brings the 50-day moving average and recent lows into play. While NIKE’s stock price has a lot to reverse and looks tempting, there is still much overhead resistance to give the all clear and jump into the trade, based on this week’s earnings. Positive news could see a tradeable upside to its 200-day moving average, which should then be faded.

For this stock to finally reverse, it needs more time and a few quarters of solid growth. It may be wiser to buy shares on a breakdown towards its lows around $52. If that occurs, then expect it to hold and rally back over the weeks ahead of its next quarterly result. 

The Bottom Line

This week’s earnings action is a good reminder to stay patient and be selective. Watch how these stocks react after earnings rather than trying to forecast the move. Sometimes, waiting for confirmation is the best strategy, especially when markets are so reactive.

Some Sector Reshuffling But No New Entries/Exits

Despite a backdrop of significant geopolitical events over the weekend, the market’s reaction appears muted — at least in European trading. As we assess the RRG best five sectors model based on last Friday’s close, we’re seeing some interesting shifts within the top performers, even as the composition of the top five remains unchanged.

The jump in Technology’s ranking is particularly noteworthy, especially when compared to Consumer Discretionary’s drop to the bottom of the list (position #11). These two sectors often move in tandem, so this divergence is worth keeping an eye on.

1. (1) Industrials – (XLI)
2. (5) Technology – (XLK)*
3. (3) Communication Services – (XLC)
4. (2) Utilities – (XLU)*
5. (4) Consumer Staples – (XLP)*
6. (7) Real-Estate – (XLRE)*
7. (6) Financials – (XLF)*
8. (8) Materials – (XLB)
9. (11) Energy – (XLE)*
10. (10) Healthcare – (XLV)
11. (9) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)*

Weekly RRG Analysis

On the weekly Relative Rotation Graph, the Technology sector is showing impressive strength. Its tail is well-positioned in the improving quadrant, nearly entering the leading quadrant with a strong RRG heading. This movement explains Technology’s climb back into the top ranks.

Industrials remains the only top-five sector still inside the leading quadrant on the weekly RRG. It continues to gain relative strength, moving higher on the JdK RS-Ratio axis, while slightly losing relative momentum. All in all, this tail is still in good shape.

Utilities, Communication Services, and Consumer Staples are all currently in the weakening quadrant. Utilities and Staples show negative headings but maintain high RS-Ratio readings, giving them room to potentially curl back up. Communication Services is starting to curl back up toward the leading quadrant.

Daily RRG

Switching to the daily RRG, we get a more nuanced picture:

• Industrials: In the lagging quadrant with stable relative momentum, this sector needs an improvement in relative strength soon to remain in the top position
• Technology: Almost static at a high RS-Ratio reading, indicating a stable relative uptrend
• Communication Services: Back in the leading quadrant and still moving higher
• Utilities and Consumer Staples: Low readings but curling back up, with Utilities already re-entering the improving quadrant

This daily view suggests that Utilities and Consumer Staples might maintain their positions in the top five, while raising some concerns about Industrials’ short-term performance.

Industrials: Resistance Roadblock

The industrial sector is grappling with overhead resistance between 142.5 and 145. This struggle is impacting the raw relative strength line, which has rolled over, causing the RS-Momentum line to curl as well.

The RS-Ratio remains elevated and moving higher, but the resistance level is a key area to watch.

Technology: Strong Despite Struggles

XLK is facing overhead resistance in the 240 area for the third consecutive week.

From a relative perspective, however, the sector looks robust. The raw RS line broke from its falling channel and is clearly moving higher, dragging both RRG lines upward and pushing XLK into the leading quadrant on the weekly RRG.

Communication Services: Balancing Act

XLC is battling resistance around 105, with its raw RS line remaining inside its channel but slowly curling up against rising support.

To maintain its position, we’ll need to see either higher prices for XLC or lower prices for SPY in the coming weeks.

Utilities and Consumer Staples: Range-Bound Challenges

Both sectors are stuck within their respective trading ranges, causing their RRG lines to roll over.

With SPY moving higher, their relative strength is under pressure, positioning both tails in the weakening quadrant on negative RRG headings.

Portfolio Performance Update

From a portfolio perspective, we’re seeing a slight improvement, but the underperformance still persists.

We’re continuing to track movements and position the portfolio according to the mechanical model that is the foundation of this best five sectors series.

Looking Ahead

With no changes to the top five sector positions, we’ll be closely monitoring how this selection holds up in the coming week. The divergence between Technology and Consumer Discretionary is particularly intriguing, and the struggles with overhead resistance across several sectors could prove pivotal.

Imho, the limited market reaction to the weekend’s geopolitical events (so far) suggests a certain resilience, but we’ll need to stay alert for any delayed impacts or shifts in sentiment.

#StayAlert and have a great week ahead. –Julius

The S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) is trading at a moment of truth as its 5-day SMA returns to the 200-day SMA. A bearish trend signal triggered in early March. Despite a strong bounce from early April to mid May, this signal remains in force because it has yet to be proven otherwise. Today’s report will show how to quantify signals and reduce whipsaws using the percentage difference between two SMAs.

First note that MDY is lagging SPY and QQQ because its 5-day has yet to cross above its 200-day. The latter two saw bullish crosses in mid May, over a month ago. A bullish breakout in MDY would reflect broadening upside participation, which would be bullish for stocks. The PerfChart below shows SPY and QQQ with year-to-date gains. MDY and IWM are down year-to-date. 

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TrendInvestorPro continues to follow the leading uptrends and recent breakouts in metals-related ETFs. These include gold, silver, palladium, platinum, copper and associated miners. Tech-related ETFs are also leading and featured in our reports/videos. Click here to learn more and get full access to our research.

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The chart below shows MDY hitting its moment of truth as the 5-day SMA (black line) bumps against the underside of the 200-day SMA (blue line). A bearish cross occurred in late February and this signal has yet to be reversed. However, I am not watching for a simple 5/200 cross. Instead, I want to see the 5-day SMA clear the 200-day SMA by a certain percentage. This is a signal threshold.

The indicator window shows Percent above MA (5,200,1), which measures the percentage difference between the 5 and 200 day SMAs. See the TIP Indicator Edge Plugin for details. I placed signal thresholds at +3% and -3% to reduce whipsaws. A bullish signal triggers with a move above +3% and a bearish signal triggers with a move below -3%. At the very least, this indicator value is still negative and bearish. A move above 0 would reflect a positive 5/200 cross, while a move above +3% would trigger a bullish trend signal. This indicator is part of the TIP Indicator Edge Plugin for StockCharts ACP.

The signal threshold levels depend on your personal preferences and trading styles. Tighter thresholds generate earlier signals, but with more whipsaws. Wider thresholds reduce whipsaws, but increase signal lag. This is always the tradeoff. I prefer plus/minus 1 percent when using the 5/200 cross for SPY. I widened these thresholds to plus/minus 3 percent for MDY because it is more volatile.

TrendInvestorPro continues to follow the leading uptrends and recent breakouts in metals-related ETFs. These include gold, silver, palladium, platinum, copper and associated miners. Tech-related ETFs are also leading and featured in our reports/videos. Click here to learn more and gain immediate access. 

In today’s “Weekly Market Recap”, EarningsBeats.com’s Chief Market Strategist Tom Bowley looks ahead to determine the likely path for U.S. equities after the weekend bombing of Iran nuclear sites. Are crude prices heading higher? Will energy stocks outperform? What additional roadblocks might we have to negotiate after the latest Fed meeting and policy statement? Could we see fallout from June monthly options expiring on Friday? Check it all out in the video below….

Happy trading!

Tom

U.S. stocks are on the cusp of a very impressive breakout to all-time highs, but are still missing one key ingredient. They need help in the form of a semiconductors ($DJUSSC) breakout of its own. When the DJUSSC reached its all-time high on June 20, 2024, one year ago, a nasty bearish engulfing candle printed on extremely heavy volume, I wrote an article, “The Semiconductors Have Topped; Look Elsewhere for Opportunities”. Simply put, it was buyers’ exhaustion”. I looked for a 20% drop in the index, providing this chart at the time:

There’s now been a lengthy period of sideways consolidation on the semiconductors as you can see from this updated chart as that 20% drop immediately occurred:

Semiconductor leadership has been held firmly in check by the overhead price resistance just below 22000. Until that resistance is cleared, the QQQ has a lid on it.

Let’s keep in mind that the QQQ, an ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100 index, can be broken down into its top 2 industry groups, as follows:

• Semiconductors ($DJUSSC): 21.65%
• Software ($DJUSSW): 19.11%

More than 40% of the QQQ is comprised of semiconductors and software. Here’s what the longer-term, 5-year software chart looks like:

Software’s relative strength is powerful and we’ve recently seen an absolute price breakout – an awesome combo. On a 5-year weekly chart of semis, it’s quite apparent that when the semiconductors break out, they carry the NASDAQ 100 on their shoulders higher and we’re close to a breakout now:

We just saw a relative strength breakout on the DJUSSC, there’s only one thing missing – that absolute breakout and it’s coming fairly soon, in my opinion.

Market Outlook

A big part of what happens over the next 6-12 months will be highly dependent on the two industry groups above. There are over 100 industry groups and this may be oversimplifying stocks a bit, but make no mistake about it. Higher growth prospects and lower interest rates can result in flying PE ratios and these two groups are home to companies that can expand their businesses very rapidly.

Market Manipulation

I’ve discussed the role of market makers and their manipulation of the stock market many times over the past several years and there’s no doubt in my mind we were just exposed to another massive dose of it in the first half of 2025. At EarningsBeats.com, however, we’ve become experts at spotting it and pointing it out. I discussed the importance of being in cash back in late January and in February before the massive Wall Street ripoff started and I also wrote about the importance of getting back in early. Remember my article in the second week of April, “The Bottom is Here or Rapidly Approaching”? These are real-time articles, folks. You need to see the tops and bottoms before they occur. It does little good to talk about it now. We don’t get a “do over.”

Or do we?

What do I mean by that? Well, we’ll have plenty more chances to spot tops and bottoms in the future, but you need to learn from this year’s mistakes RIGHT NOW. Don’t let these big-money, Wall Street crooks do it to you again. We have one MASSIVE advantage on our side vs. these big Wall Street firms. We can enter and exit stocks in seconds. It takes them days and weeks.

If you want to be better-positioned to see this nonsense AHEAD OF TIME the next time it comes around, I’d suggest that you join me on Saturday, June 28th at 10:00am ET for a 100% free event, “Trading The Truth: How Market Manipulation Creates Opportunity”. CLICK HERE to register and learn more about the event! This is a MUST-ATTEND event and seating is limited. Be sure to save your seat and learn how to protect your hard-earned money for the rest of your financial future!

Happy trading!

Tom

This week, Julius breaks down the current sector rotation using his signature Relative Rotation Graphs, with XLK vaulting into the leading quadrant while utilities and staples fade. He spotlights strength in the technology sector, led by semiconductors and electronic groups that are outpacing the S&P 500. Microchip heavyweights AMD, NVDA, and AVGO are displaying bullish RRG tails, reinforcing the trend. Communication Services and Energy are gaining momentum as well, rounding out a playbook that rewards disciplined trend-following amid risk from geopolitical headlines.

This video was originally published on June 20, 2025. Click on the icon above to view on our dedicated page for Julius.

Past videos from Julius can be found here.

#StayAlert, -Julius

The Fed should absolutely stop talking about being “data dependent”. That’s so far from the truth. If they were data dependent, we’d have either seen a rate cut today or Fed Chief Powell would have been discussing one for the next meeting. Inflation reports since the last Fed meeting have been benign. Economic reports, on the other hand, have shown weakness and are pointing to the need for lower interest rates.

Powell was having none of it. During Wednesday’s press conference, one reporter asked the Fed Chief why the Fed was able to lower rates in December, despite knowing that tariffs and their potential impacts were on the way. I thought it was a great question, because Powell was using future tariff impacts on inflation as the primary reason for holding rates steady today. It was a perfect illustration of The Waffler at his best. When another reporter asked Powell about his frequent comments that the Fed is data dependent and that all current data points to the need for an interest rate cut, The Waffler noted the Fed needs to “look ahead”. So which is it? Is interest rate policy being guided by current data or by looking ahead?

This is a repeat of 2021 and 2022. Remember all the inflation news and how The Waffler said inflation was transitory. I guess he was looking ahead when he made those comments. He and his band of wafflers looked ahead and got it wrong. Then, inflation data poured in higher than expected for months and he finally started his data dependency talk.

The Fed has been late to every single party for 7 years now and running. They’re running late again. Eventually, Mr. Waffler will get it right and our major indices will all move to all-time highs. For now, though, the reason for any period of consolidation or, worse yet, selling can be laid at the doorstep of none other than The Waffler.

Personally, I’m exhausted by the constant “listen to what I say until I change it” approach to interest rate policy. Yes, we’ve had a 100-year pandemic and a resulting inflation problem that’s been worse than any since the 1970s. We’ve had two trade wars. I get it. But I firmly believe that the extreme volatility and the four (FOUR!!!!!!!) cyclical bear markets that we’ve endured since The Waffler became the Fed Chief is, in large part, his fault. He was sworn in on February 5th, 2018 and the stock market has been a roller coaster ever since:

Name the last time that the U.S. has seen 4 different cyclical bear markets, all starting from all-time highs, within a 7-year period. Start the Jeopardy music.

His mismanagement of interest rates didn’t start with the pandemic. I wrote an article in December 2018, during his first year, saying that his call for two rate hikes in 2019 would never happen. The next interest rate move? A cut several months later in 2019. Here’s the article I wrote back then as we bottomed in December 2018:

“How The Grinch Stole Christmas” Featuring Jerome Powell

No one has been wrong more than The Waffler.

Now maybe you’re sitting back and saying, “Tom, what’s the big deal? The tariffs are a threat. Why not just wait it out and be sure there are no lingering inflationary pressures?” Well, if you don’t mind the potential of a 5th cyclical bear market before we finally boot this guy to the curb, then I say GO FOR IT. Why try to hasten an economic meltdown when it’s unnecessary? Who believes anything The Waffler says? He said we were going to get two rate hikes in 2019. We got an interest rate cut instead. He said inflation was transitory in 2021. Then the Fed had to start raising rates at an absurd rate, because inflation skyrocketed and he waited way too long to turn hawkish. The stock market bottomed in June 2022 and was returning back towards all-time highs just prior to his infamous “more pain ahead” speech from Jackson Hole, WY on August 26th, 2022. Subsequent to that speech, the stock market fell precipitously for two months before once again finding a new bottom. That entire selling episode was caused solely by his irresponsible remarks.

And now where are we? Holding rates steady while the European Central Bank (ECB) has cut rates for 8 straight meetings. The Waffler will eventually get it right. Unfortunately, a lot of innocent investors and traders will continue to pay the price – until someone finally shows him the exit.

His term expiration cannot get here soon enough for me. GOOD RIDDANCE MR. WAFFLER!

Market Manipulation

I’ve written often about what I call the “legalized thievery” of market makers. The extreme volatility over the past several years has triggered market manipulation like we’ve never seen before. The good news is that once you understand how it works, trading the stock market gets a whole lot easier. At EarningsBeats.com we’ve timed exits out of the stock market almost perfectly, prior to the onset of cyclical bear markets. Missing out on 20%+ declines and then jumping back in at or near major bottoms increases stock market returns dramatically.

It’s time that everyone understands how the stock market works. On Saturday, June 28th, at 10:00am ET, we will be hosting a FREE webinar, “Trading the Truth: How Market Manipulation Creates Opportunity”. This event promises to be a real eye-opener, unless you’re already an EarningsBeats.com member (in which case you’ve already become a seasoned veteran regarding manipulation). Do you want to see big stock market declines before they happen? I will teach you how.

Seating is limited and this event will be packed, I can guarantee you that. PLEASE be sure to register NOW and save your spot. Again, there is NO COST. Registration is easy. Simply CLICK HERE to register and for more information.

(By the way, if you’re not available to attend LIVE on Saturday, June 28th, you should still register. All those who register will receive a copy of the recording after the event and it will be time stamped.)

Happy trading!

Tom

When the stock market seems to be drifting sideways without displaying a clear bullish or bearish bias, it’s normal for investors to get anxious. It’s like being at a crossroads, wondering whether to go left, right, or stay put.

The truth is nobody has a crystal ball, and predicting what the market will do next is a fool’s errand. Should you jump in and buy now, or wait for the price to dip lower? Instead of fretting over these questions, what you can do is empower yourself with the right tools to make informed decisions.

For one example, creating ChartLists is a terrific way to keep an eye on the charts that are important to you. 

A logical starting point is to monitor a broad market index such as the S&P 500 ($SPX), which acts as a barometer for the overall health of the market. The chart from this week’s article “Navigate the Stock Market with Confidence” highlighted some important levels to monitor. The area between 5950 and 6050 is key; a break above or below these levels can signal what’s coming next.

Below is the chart of the S&P 500, with the key levels and updated to reflect the data after Wednesday’s close. Note that the index is still within the 5950 to 6050 range. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference didn’t do much to move the market, although there was a bit of a selloff towards the close. But that’s nothing to be alarmed about. Active participants would have unloaded their positions ahead of Wednesday’s close due to the Middle East conflict and the market being closed on Thursday to observe Juneteenth.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF THE S&P 500. Monitor the price action at key support and resistance levels.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If the S&P 500 breaks below 5950, it could mean a further decline or a market reversal. On the other hand, if the index breaks above 6050, it could indicate a move towards new highs, or it could reverse after hitting its all-time high. With so many possible outcomes, navigating the stock market can feel like a puzzle.

This is where confirmation tools become your best friends. When the overall market is wavering, these tools provide that extra bit of confidence you need.

Take the McClellan Summation Index as an example. If you’re a regular reader of our weekly ChartWatchers newsletter (and if not, you should definitely check it out — it’s packed with insights), you might recognize the chart below from last week’s issue.

FIGURE 2. NYSE MCCLELLAN SUMMATION INDEX VS. THE NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX. Note the divergence between the two and the various levels (red horizontal lines). Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

This chart displays the NYSE McClellan Summation Index ($NYSI) overlaid on an area chart of the NYSE Composite Index ($NYA). The McClellan Summation Index tends to generate fewer signals, making it helpful for looking at medium and long-term trends. It helps to cut through the noise of an indecisive market and gives you a clearer picture.

Notice how, after its April low, the $NYSI climbed from -590 to 688 relatively quickly in sync with the NYSE. But here’s where it gets interesting: after hitting 688, there is a divergence. While the NYSE continued to move higher, the $NYSI started trending lower, making lower highs. This could be an early warning sign that the market’s upward momentum may be waning.

The McClellan Summation Index gives us some clear levels to monitor.

• Bearish scenario. If the S&P 500 falls below the 5950 level, followed by the $NYSI dropping below its last low of 525, then it’s likely equities could see further declines.
• Bullish scenario. If the S&P 500 breaks above the 6050 level, followed by the $NYSI moving higher than 642 and then the 688.50 level, it would be a positive sign for equities.

The Bottom Line

So if you’re wondering when might be a good time to “buy the dip” but are unsure about when that dip might occur, these types of charting tools can help guide your investment decisions. If your indicators line up and confirm an upward move, consider investing a portion of your capital and then adding more if the market continues to move in your favor. A big part of how well you manage your finances has to do with money management.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.