Qubits, quantum advantage, gate speed — these terms could one day be as ubiquitous as AI or large language model (LLM). Quantum computing could become the next big thing in the technology space and, as an investor, it’s something you don’t want to ignore. Some companies, Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) and Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) to name a few, have already dipped their toes in the quantum computing world.

While it may be many years before quantum computing is adopted into the mainstream, investors should take notice now. Some quantum computing stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are seeing their prices rise and, at their current price levels, it’s worth paying attention to their charts.

When reviewing the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) Reports Dashboard panel on Thursday, December 26, we can see that at least four quantum computing stocks made it to the Small Cap, Top 10 category. This makes it worth analyzing their charts.

FIGURE 1. QUANTUM COMPUTING STOCKS ARE GETTING STRONG. The Small-Cap, Top 10 displayed four quantum computing stocks with high SCTR scores.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

All four stocks — Quantum Computing (QUBT), Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI), Quantum Corp. (QMCO), and D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) displayed upside momentum in October/November (see chart below). The SCTR score for all four stocks is close to 100, their 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) and 50-day SMA are trending higher, and the 200-day SMA is flat to slightly higher.

FIGURE 2. QUANTUM COMPUTING STOCKS. All four stocks are displaying similar price action. They’re all trending higher, have strong SCTR scores, and display bullish momentum.Image source: StockChartsACP. For educational purposes.

Overall, these stocks look ripe for a bull run and the price levels are attractive. The percentage price oscillator (PPO) in the lower panel shows momentum favors the bulls. Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) has pulled back slightly, whereas Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI), Quantum Corp. (QMCO), and D-Wave Quantum, Inc. (QBTS) are at all-time highs.

If you want to gain broader exposure to the quantum computing segment, the Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM) invests in quantum computing and technology companies. The Symbol Summary page provides more details about the ETF.

The daily chart of QTUM below is similar to the charts of the individual stocks above.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF DEFIANCE QUANTUM ETF (QTUM). This chart is similar to the individual quantum computing stocks in Fig 2. The advantage of investing in the ETF is it gives you exposure to more than one stock and other cutting-edge technology stocks.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The Game Plan

Watch for a pullback toward the 21-day EMA or the most recent low, whichever is higher. A reversal from a support level with follow-through would be an opportune time to enter a long position. It’s worth creating a ChartList of quantum computing stocks so you can revisit these charts frequently.

So at your New Year’s Eve party, if someone mentions the words qubit and gate speed, at least you’ll know they’re talking about quantum computing.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Breadth became oversold last week and stocks rebounded this week. Is this a robust rebound or a dead cat bounce? Today’s report will show a key short-term breadth indicator hitting its lowest level in 2024 and becoming oversold. A rebound is in place, but it is still too early to call this a robust rebound and we will show the critical level to watch.

Short-term breadth indicators, such as the percentage of stocks above their 50-day SMAs, are well-suited to identify oversold setups. For example, SPX %Above 50-day SMA fluctuates between 0 and 100%, and becomes oversold with a move below 20%. Such a move signals excessive downside participation that can foreshadow a bounce in SPY. The chart below shows this indicator in the top window and SPY in the lower window. The pink shadings mark oversold periods. There were three in 2022, three in 2023 and just one in 2024, which is a testament to the strong bull market this year.

Oversold is a double-edged sword. While oversold conditions increase the chances for a bounce, an indicator can become oversold and remain oversold. Keep in mind that oversold conditions materialize after strong selling pressure. Stocks were hit hard and often need some time to stabilize before a successful rebound. On the chart above, we can see oversold conditions lasting 4-5 weeks on three occasions. We can also see double dips as the indicator bounced and then dipped back below 20% (pink arrows).

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When does an oversold bounce go from a dead cat bounce to a robust rebound? When there is a material increase in upside participation. A move above 50% means the cup is half full for short-term trends. I add a little buffer to this threshold by requiring a move above 60%. This ensures that most stocks are recovering, increasing the chances for a robust rebound. The blue dashed lines on the chart below show these signals.

Signals within bull markets usually work better than signals within bear markets. There were two signals in 2022, which was a bear market period. Price extended higher after these bounces, but the bounces were relatively short-lived as the bear market reasserted control. The bull signal in April 2023 proved timely, as did the bull signal in mid November 2023.

Looking at the current situation, SPX %Above 50-day became oversold with a dip below 20% last week and moved back above 30% this week. Further strength above 60% is needed to show a material increase in upside participation. Given the propensity for double dips, I would also be on guard for another dip below 20%.

We will next look at another short-term breadth indicator for setups and signals. This indicator is more sensitive than SPX %Above 50-day, which can generate timelier signals. This section continues for Chart Trader subscribers. 

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In this video, after a rundown of the general markets and sectors, Tony brings you the latest options trade ideas. These include a number of bullish and bearish ideas, including DIS, AAPL, META, BA, LULU, and many more.

This video premiered on December 23, 2024.

When quickly glancing at the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) Reports Dashboard panel, one stock that popped up on Monday, albiet briefly, was Meta Platforms, Inc. (META). The stock has a year-to-date performance of over 70% according to the StockCharts Symbol Summary page and, after its recent pullback, the stock could be one to consider adding to your portfolio. You can gain exposure to META either with the underlying or via options.

Analyzing META’s Stock Chart

The weekly chart below shows the uptrend in META stock is at a crossroads — it could go up or down. The stock is trading above its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA), the SCTR score is at 79 — it has crossed above my 76 threshold level — and the relative strength index (RSI) has been moving sideways between the 50 and 70 levels since April 2024.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF META STOCK PRICE. The stock is in an uptrend with a rising SCTR score. The RSI needs to move higher to indicate rising momentum.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Turning to the daily chart, META pulled back from its all-time high and could be ready for a reversal to the upside. Last Friday, the stock closed at its 50-day SMA and bounced higher from there on Monday. It closed shy of $600 per share, at the top of its daily range. These are early signs of an upside move, but the SMA appears to be flattening.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF META STOCK. The uptrend isn’t obvious on the daily chart; META’s stock price could go in either direction. The PPO in the lower panel needs to show bullish momentum and there needs to be upside follow-through in price to confirm a reversal to the upside.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The trading volume is relatively low, but, given it’s a short holiday week, it’s probably not a good representation of momentum. The percentage price oscillator (PPO) is still negative. There should be upside follow-through in META’s stock price, which could result in the shorter moving average crossing above the longer moving average in the PPO. This would confirm a bullish reversal.

META is in a spot where the price could move in either direction. The stock is trading between its 50-day SMA and a resistance level it hit twice in October. A break below the 50-day SMA would mean watching the $575 level, its next support level. This coincides with its December 2 breakout and previous support and resistance levels. Two lower support levels are its 100-day SMA and the $550 level.

If META’s stock price were to reverse and move higher, its price point of around $600 a share would be steep. Buying 50 shares will cost you about $30,000. An alternative would be to consider options on META.

Options Trade Ideas for META

Looking at the OptionsPlay Explorer (click Options under Tools & Resources in the menu to the left of the chart, then the OptionsPlay button), buying a Feb 21 595/695 call vertical spread would cost $3,335 and have a potential return of almost 200%. But this can change, so you want to monitor any open position carefully.

FIGURE 3. A CALL VERTICAL SPREAD FOR META. The return of 199.85% is respectable, but remember, things change especially as the option approaches expiration so you still need to monitor your trade carefully.Image source: OptionsPlay Strategy Center from StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The biggest risk with this trade is META will report earnings before expiration. With a stock like META, volatility tends to be high ahead of earnings, which could drastically impact your trading results. In such a scenario, you have several choices. You could close the position before expiration, especially if you’ve made a decent profit; you could roll the trade to a further expiration; or you could modify the trade and select an expiration date before the earnings report. Click the Modify button and change the expiration dates and/or strike prices of the legs.

If META’s stock price moves lower, consider applying bearish options strategies. Click the bearish button above the risk graphs to see the three optimal strategies to apply. Buying a Feb 21 600/505 put vertical would generate a return of over 200%, with the trade costing you $2,875.

Options are very flexible instruments, and your cash outlay is much lower than buying shares of META. Regardless of which way META’s price moves, there’s an options strategy you can apply.  So add META to your ChartLists and, if you have an options-enabled trading account, it’s worth exploring the OptionsPlay Strategy Center on StockCharts.com.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In today’s free DecisionPoint Trading Room Carl discusses volume spikes and how we have to analyze big volume spikes carefully to determine whether they express a confirmation of a move or whether they are a special case and do not really provide insight.

Carl goes over the signal tables and notes there are quite a few signals getting ready to change. The Bias Table reveals short-term weakness.

A complete market review follows with a look at the SPY and all the relevant DP indicators. Carl covers not only the market, but also the Dollar, Gold, Bitcoin, Crude Oil, Yields and Bonds among other asset classes.

After market coverage, Carl walks us through the Magnificent Seven’s charts to find strength and weakness in the short and intermediate terms with a look at both the daily and weekly charts.

Erin takes the show over and covers the current configuration of the sectors to determine where sector rotation is occurring. Defensive areas of the market are not performing very well so investors don’t seem to be hedging bets just yet.

The pair finish the program with a review of viewers symbol requests that included AMD, AVGO and PLTR.

Don’t miss out! Try any of the DP subscriptions out for two weeks FREE! Just use coupon code: DPTRIAL2 at checkout. Subscribe now: https://www.decisionpoint.com/products.html

Do you want to join us LIVE in the trading room on Mondays at Noon ET? Register once here: https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_D6iAp-C1S6SebVpQIYcC6g#/registration

01:12 DP Signal Tables

03: 50 Market Overview (05:16 – Volume Spikes)

15:05 Magnificent Seven

23:26 Questions

30:20 Sector Rotation

39:34 Symbol Requests

The DP Alert: Your First Stop to a Great Trade!

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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin

(c) Copyright 2024 DecisionPoint.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

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Bear Market Rules

I had no idea the Fed could be such expert wafflers. But, as each month passes, it’s becoming clearer. The overall stock market trend, despite all the back-and-forth, yo-yo Fed decisions over the past 6 months, remains to the upside. Need proof? Check out this weekly S&P 500 chart for the past year:

Now, if you weren’t aware of any news, would you think any differently about this pullback to the 20-week EMA than prior tests to the same level? There was a volume spike, but keep in mind it was December monthly options expiration week. Quad-witching months (March, June, September, and December) typically are accompanied by heavier volume. The Friday market recovery occurred before any significant breakdown on this chart, which I find bullish. I view the stock market action from December 21st through December 31st to be the period where we normally see a “Santa Claus rally” – more on that below.

The Fed has made it clear in the past that they’ve been “data-dependent.” In the latest FOMC policy decision and subsequent press conference, however, Fed Chief Powell indicated that they’ve cut the number of anticipated rate cuts in 2025 from 4 to 2, because committee members feel that core inflation could be higher than they previously thought back in September, when the first rate cut was announced.

Here’s a problem I have, though. On Thursday, November 14th, the Associated Press reported the following:

The Fed acknowledged in this article that inflation remained persistent and above the Fed’s target 2% level. That day, Powell suggested that inflation may remain stuck somewhat above the Fed’s target level in coming months. But he reiterated that inflation should eventually decline. Given those November 14th remarks, if the Fed was concerned about inflation remaining elevated, then why not change their tune on 2025 interest rate cuts at the November 6-7 Fed meeting. If they’re truly “data dependent”, then what data changed from November 14th until the next Fed meeting on December 17-18 to prompt 2025 interest rate policy change?

Can I have a waffle, please?

Odds of a Santa Claus Rally

Again, I consider the Santa Claus rally to be from December 21st through December 31st, so let’s look at how many times this period has actually moved higher:

• S&P 500: 58 of the last 74 years since 1950 (annualized return: +40.50%)
• NASDAQ: 43 of the last 53 years since 1971 (annualized return: +61.80%)
• Russell 2000: 31 of the last 37 years since 1987 (annualized return: +64.57%)

Based upon history, the odds of a Santa Claus rally is 78.4%, 81.1%, and 83.8% on the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000, respectively. And you can see the annualized return for this period in the parenthesis above. I’d say there’s a ton of historical performance to suggest the odds that we’ll rally from here until year end are rather strong.

Nothing is ever a guarantee, however.

Max Pain

In my opinion, the media is promoting the idea that inflation is re-igniting and that the Fed is becoming more hawkish. I believe last week’s selling is due to EXACTLY what I talked about with our EarningsBeats.com members during our December Max Pain event on Tuesday. There was a TON of net in-the-money call premium and the big Wall Street firms aided their market-making units by telling us how bad the Fed’s actions and words are for the stock market. That Wednesday drop saved market makers an absolute FORTUNE. We pointed out to our members the downside market risk that existed, because of max pain. A day later, VOILA! It’s magic! The crazy afternoon selling was panicked selling at its finest, with the Volatility Index (VIX) soaring an astounding 74% in 2 hours! On Thursday and Friday, the VIX retreated back into the 18s (from 28) as if nothing ever happened.

There’s a reason why I preach every single month about options expiration and this was just another example of legalized thievery by the market makers. Let’s give them another golf clap.

MarketVision 2025

It’s almost time for my 2025 forecast, which will be a big part of our Saturday, January 4, 2025, 10:00am ET event. This year’s MV event, “The Year of Diverging Returns”, will feature myself and David Keller, President and Chief Strategist, Sierra Alpha Research. Many of you know Dave from StockCharts and also from his Market Misbehavior podcast. I’m looking forward to having Dave join me as we dissect what we believe is likely to transpire in 2025. For more information on the event and to register, CLICK HERE!

Happy holidays and I hope to see you there!

Tom

After staying in the green following a sharp rebound the week before this one, the markets finally succumbed to selling pressure after failing to cross above crucial resistance levels. The Nifty stayed under strong selling pressure over the past five sessions and violated key support levels on the daily charts. The range remained wider on the anticipated lines; the Nifty traded in a wide 1243-points range over the past days. Volatility shot up as well; the India VIX surged 15.48% higher to 15.07 on a weekly basis. Following a weak performance, the headline index closed with a weekly loss of 1180.80 points (-4.77%).

Over the past few days, the Nifty has shown many technical events highlighting the importance of some key levels. The Index resisted the 100-DMA for several days and the 20-week MA for some time; this highlights the importance of these levels as key resistance points for the markets. In the process, the Nifty closed below the key 200-DMA, placed at 23834 while dragging the resistance points lower. The Nifty has also closed a notch above the crucial 50-week MA level placed at 23530. The markets had staged a mosterous rebound when this level was tested before. The Nifty’s behavior against the level of 50-week MA would determine the trajectory not just for the coming week but also for the immediate near term as well.

Next week is truncated, with the Christmas holiday on Wednesday. Expect a tepid start to the week on Monday. The levels of 23750 and 23830 would act as potential resistance points. The supports come in at the 23500 and 23285 levels on the lower side.

The weekly RSI is 44.41; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bearish and stays below its signal line. The widening Histogram hints at accelerated downside momentum. A large black candle occurring at the 20-week MA adds to the credibility of this level as a major resistance area for the markets.

The pattern analysis of the weekly charts shows that after completing the painful mean reversion process, the Nifty staged a strong technical rebound after it took support at the 50-week MA. The Index resisted at the 100-DMA and the 20-week MA, which are close to each other. The intense selling pressure over the coming week has seen the Nifty almost retesting the 50-week MA by closing just a notch above this point. The Nifty must keep its head above this crucial support level to keep its primary uptrend intact. If this level gets meaningfully violated, we might be in for a prolonged intermediate trend over the coming weeks.

Even if the trend remains weak and the downtrend continues, a modest technical rebound cannot be ruled out. However, it would still keep the markets under corrective retracement unless a few key levels are taken out on the upside. It is strongly recommended that leveraged exposures be kept at modest levels. All new exposures must be highly selective, and all gains, even modest ones, must be guarded very carefully. It is also recommended that one not rush in to shorten the markets so long as they are above 50-week MA, as there is a possibility of a modest technical rebound. A highly selective and careful approach is advised for the coming week.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show Nifty Bank, Financial Services, Services Sector, and the IT indices inside the leading quadrant. These sectors are likely to outperform the broader markets relatively.

The Nifty Pharma Index is inside the weakening quadrant. The Midcap 100 Index is also inside the weakening quadrant but is improving its relative momentum.

The Nifty Media, Energy, Commodities, Auto, and FMCG indices continue to lag inside the lagging quadrant. The Consumption Index has rolled inside the lagging quadrant as well. These groups are likely to underperform the broader Nifty 500 Index relatively. The Nifty PSE Index is also inside the lagging quadrant but is improving its relative momentum against broader markets.

The Infrastructure Index has rolled inside the improving quadrant and is likely to begin its phase of relative outperformance. The Realty and the PSU Bank Indices are also inside the improving quadrant. The Metal Index, also inside the improving quadrant, is sharply giving up on its relative momentum.

Important Note: RRG™ charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

A smart investor listens to the stock market and this week’s stock market action was a perfect example of why this is important. 

It was a roller-coaster week in the stock markets leading many investors to quickly sell holdings when there was a big selloff and scramble to go long again on Friday when the broader stock market indexes turned higher. This is why it’s a good idea to always look at a longer time frame chart to get a sense of the long-term trend before making hasty decisions. 

If you pull up a weekly chart of any of the three major indexes you’ll see that the S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) are trending higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) is also doing the same but it’s just hanging in there by a whisker.

The Ups and Downs

Comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday sent investors into selloff mode which spilled over into Thursday. But Friday’s slightly lighter-than-expected November PCE may have reversed investor sentiment. The broader stock market indexes moved higher spreading some holiday cheer to an otherwise gloomy week. 

What made the market move higher? It doesn’t make sense to look for a reason for the reversal in sentiment. Remember, it’s best to listen to the market and follow along. That said, a few interesting data points are worth noting.

The Federal Reserve indicated their focus was on a cooling of the labor market in their last few meetings. However, Wednesday’s comments from Chairman Powell suggested that the labor market is doing fine now but the Fed’s focus has switched to inflation. That may have made investors nervous and triggered the massive selling we witnessed on Wednesday. Friday’s light November PCE may have been a sigh of relief that brought back the optimistic sentiment. 

Despite the optimistic sentiment, one important news we can’t lose sight of is the possibility of a US government shutdown. A shutdown doesn’t necessarily impact the stock market but there may be inconveniences such as a reduction in government services that may send ripples through the economy.

The Year-End Party

As 2024 winds down, there will likely be very light trading days but there are some important events that unfold at the end of the year. There’s the January Effect which is when small-cap stocks start rallying. Small-cap stocks got a boost post US election but since late November they’ve been sliding lower. The daily chart of iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) shows the small-cap trend is still bearish. 

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF IWM. Small cap stocks took a big hit in December. Look for the full stochastic oscillator to cross above the 20 level with some follow-through to confirm their seasonal rally. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The full stochastic oscillator is deep in oversold territory and a cross above the 20 level would be encouraging for small-cap stocks. But there needs to be follow-through for the small caps to have a bullish rally.  

In addition to the January Effect, there’s the eagerly awaited Santa Claus rally, which is supposed to start next week. Friday’s price action may have reignited the possibility of having Santa show up this year. But I wouldn’t hold my breath just yet. 

If you look at the daily chart of the S&P 500 below, you’ll see that the three market breadth indicators displayed in the lower panels had started declining in late November, which should have signaled that the market was ripe for a selloff.

FIGURE 2. S&P 500 HOLDS ON TO SUPPORT. Friday’s price action may look slightly bullish but it needs more follow-through to confirm a reversal. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

What is concerning is that Friday’s price action didn’t change the market breadth narrative. So even though Friday’s rise was sizeable, with a bullish engulfing pattern that closed at the 50-day simple moving average, I wouldn’t rush to buy the dip just yet and certainly not on triple-witching Friday. For all you know, there could have been some short-covering going on. I’ll need to see more follow-through of the upside move before adding more positions to my portfolio. At least the S&P 500 stayed above the support of its mid-November lows.

The daily chart of the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index ($SPXEW) vs. the S&P 500 gives you an idea of how dominant the heavily weighted stocks influence the index.

FIGURE 3: S&P 500 VS S&P 500 EQUAL-WEIGHTED INDEX. The less-heavy weighted stocks in the S&P 500 are lagging the S&P 500. The equal-weighted index is trading below its 100-day moving average and has a long way to go before re-establishing its uptrend. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

$SPXEW is trading below its 100-day SMA. Note that Friday’s high came close to the 100-day SMA. A close above the 100-day SMA would be the first sign of a trend reversal in the equal-weighted index. But one day’s action doesn’t make a trend. A series of higher highs and higher lows needs to be established before a trend has indeed reversed. It would be more confirming if the non-Mag Seven stocks showed signs of catching up with the big S&P 500 index.

Volatility Pulls Back 

One encouraging point to end the week is the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) closed below 20 (see chart below). Investors were getting so complacent towards the end of November but if you had noticed the VIX creeping higher, you’d have seen the selloff coming. 

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF THE CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX ($VIX). The VIX was at very low levels from November but it slowly started moving higher signaling that investors were getting fearful. This led to Wednesday’s spike. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The pattern in the chart of the VIX shows that a similar pattern occurred from June to July, right before the August spike. Could a similar scenario unfold this time?

The Mark Twain quote, “History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes,” explains it so well. So as you navigate the stock market, listen to the rhythm and follow its lead. 

The bottom line: Set up your Dashboard panels on the StockCharts platform and get a bird’s eye view of the stock market.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

• S&P 500 down 1.99% for the week, at 5930.85, Dow Jones Industrial Average down 2.25% for the week at 42,840.26; Nasdaq Composite down 1.78% for the week at 19,572.60
• $VIX up 32.95% for the week, closing at 18.36.
• Best performing sector for the week: Technology
• Worst performing sector for the week: Energy
• Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Applovin Corp. (APP); Palantir Technologies (PLTR); Reddit Inc. (RDDT); Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB); MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR)

On the Radar Next Week

• November Durable Goods Orders
• November New Home Sales
• October S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

This week saw the fabled Hindenburg Omen generate its first major sell signal in three years, suggesting the endless bull market of 2024 may soon indeed be ending.  Why is this indicator so widely followed, and what does this confirmed signal tell us about market conditions going into Q1?  First, let’s break down the conditions that led to this rare but powerful bearish indicator.

Major Tops Tend to Have Consistent Patterns

Strategist Jim Miekka created the Hindenburg Omen in 2010 after analyzing key market tops through market history.  What consistent patterns and signals tended to occur leading into these market peaks?  He boiled it all down to three key factors which were consistently present:

1. The broad equity markets are in an uptrend
2. At least 2.5% of NYSE listings are making a new 52-week high and at least 2.5% are making new 52-week lows on the same day
3. The McClellan Oscillator breaks below the zero level

One final step involves observing these three conditions occur at least two times within a one month period.  Looking at the chart, we can see that this completed Hindenburg Omen signal has only occurred three times since 2019: in February 2020 going into the COVID peak, in December 2021 just before the 2022 bear market, and December 2024.

What strikes me about this initial look at the indicator is that from a technical perspective, 2024 and 2021 have been remarkably similar.  Both years featured long-term uptrends with minimal drawdowns and low volatility.  So does that mean we are heading into another 2022 and a 9-month bear market for stocks?  Not necessarily.

Trend-Following Techniques Can Help Improve Accuracy

Switching to a weekly chart, we can bring in much more history to consider.  I’ve added red vertical lines to indicate any time we registered a confirmed Hindenburg Omen signal with at least two observations within one month.

Reviewing some of the recent market tops, we can see that this indicator did remarkably well in identifying topping conditions in 2021, 2020, and 2018.  Going back even further, you’ll notice signals around the 2007 and 2000 peaks as well.  But what about all the other signals that were not followed by a major decline?

People have quipped that the Hindenburg Omen have “signalled ten out of the last five corrections,” referencing the “false alarm” signals that did not actually play out.  I would argue that the key with indicators like this is to combine them with trend-following approaches, similar to how I approach bearish momentum divergences.

When I see a bearish divergence between price and RSI, or observe any other leading indicators like the Hindenburg Omen flash a sell signal, that doesn’t tell me to blindly take action!  What it does tell me is to be on high alert and look for signs of distribution that could serve to confirm a bearish rotation.  By patiently waiting for confirmation, we can improve our success rate and take action only when the charts compel us to do so!

S&P 5850 Remains the Level to Watch

So where does that leave us in December 2024?  While Wednesday’s post-Fed drop certainly represented a significant short-term distribution pattern, the longer-term trends for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are still quite constructive.

The S&P 500 broke below its 50-day moving average this week for the first time since September.  And while Wednesday and Thursday both saw the SPX close below the 50-day, Friday’s rally on improved inflation data took the major equity index right back above this key short-term barometer.

SPX 5850 has been my “line in the sand” since the November pullback, and as long as price remains above this threshold, I’m inclined to consider this market innocent until proven guilty.  And given the normal end-of-the-year window dressing common with money managers, I would not be surprised if the Magnificent 7 stocks and other large cap growth names remain strong enough to keep the benchmarks in decent shape into year-end.

But indicators like the Hindenburg Omen certainly have caused me to dust off the bull market top checklist, looking for signs of distribution that would imply further weakness.  One of my mentors and long-time StockCharts contributor Greg Morris once quipped, “All new highs are bullish… except the last one.”  I’m wondering if that early December high around 6100 may be the last one for a while!

One last thing…

I recently sat down virtually with author and technical analyst Chris Vermeulen to discuss the benefits of following asset flows, the dangers of holding dividend paying stocks during bear markets, how to navigate a potential breakdown in crude oil and energy stocks, and how investing and surfing are more alike than you might think!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Semiconductors are at a crossroads, with innovation fueling growth and tariffs threatening profits.  How might you navigate this potentially volatile landscape and identify opportunities without getting burned?

In 2025, analysts predict AI will drive explosive demand in the semiconductor industry, fueling innovation and revenue growth. At the same time, this optimism is tempered by the new administration’s tariff policies, which threaten to disrupt global supply chains, increase costs, and reshape the competitive landscape for chipmakers.

This tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forecasts is best exemplified by the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) price action, a reliable proxy for the semiconductor industry. Here’s a weekly chart.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF SMH. Congestion narrowing within a wider trading range may indicate that bulls and bears are in temporary equilibrium, with neither buyers nor sellers showing enough conviction to drive a decisive breakout or breakdown. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

There’s a narrowing, range-bound movement between its all-time high near $283 and the swing low of $280 (see blue dotted lines). The increasingly tight congestion range over the last three months, as highlighted by the magenta rectangle, suggests increased indecision among bulls and bears. Despite the temporary standstill, semiconductor stocks are outperforming their tech sector peers (see price performance against XLK) by only 29% and the S&P 500 by 51%.

While AI chip demand will likely see significant growth in the future, the effects of tariffs and reshoring may bring sharp and near-term pain to most chipmakers, particularly semiconductor companies that are most reliant on Asian production. Domestic chipmakers with minimal reliance on overseas manufacturing may fare better under these conditions.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at SMH’s top three holdings—NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)—all of which play a leading role in AI chip development, but have different levels of reliance in the global chip supply chain.

FIGURE 2. PERFCHARTS COMPARING SMH AGAINST ITS TOP THREE HOLDINGS. Note the late jump in AVGO. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

All three of SMH’s top holdings are outperforming their industry peers with NVDA on top, TSM second, and AVGO third. Understanding that late jump in AVGO might require some context (which we’ll get into later).

• NVDA is the world’s AI chip leader.
• TSM, is the world’s top chip foundry, and main producer of NVDA’s GPUs.
• AVGO is a diversified supplier of data center components which are the backbone of AI infrastructure. Unlike NVDA, its business model is less exposed to reshoring effects.

NVIDIA (NVDA): The AI Semiconductor Leader

Take a look at the rounding top pattern on the daily chart.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF NVDA. Rounding tops are bearish, but tend to break higher more than 50% of the time. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

According to Thomas Bulkowski’s Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, while rounding tops are typically viewed as bearish, more than half the time they break upwards, challenging that assumption. In many cases, the rim on the right is higher than the one on the left. In the case above, the rim is formed by a price bounce off the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). 

Both the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are likely to act as strong support unless there is a significant change in the chipmaker’s fundamentals. While NVDA’s uptrend remains intact, momentum seems to be weakening as suggested by the decline in the money flow index (MFI). Keep an eye on this development, especially if it breaks below the 100-day SMA and bounces off the 200-day SMA.

Next, let’s take a look at NVDA’s main chip foundry: TSM.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM): The Foundry

TSM’s daily chart doesn’t look too different from NVDA’s. Remember, TSM is NVDA’s main chip foundry, and so NVDA is highly dependent on TSM (rather than the other way around).

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF TSM. The stock’s price is chugging along with plenty of support. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

You can see the difference between the stock’s volatile rise in price against a gradual decline in the RSI. TSM’s recent price action over the last three months has succumbed to this drop in bullish momentum. 

The stock is reacting strongly to the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, suggesting a high likelihood of bouncing off these levels again should price continue to decline from the current levels.

Broadcom (AVGO): A More Diversified AI and Semiconductor  Play

Broadcom also uses TSM’s foundry services, but it has a few other foundries in Asia and Europe. Because of its wide range of products and its focus on data centers, AVGO is more diversified and less exposed to the same supply chain risks as NVDA. Perhaps this (plus the company’s optimistic 2025 revenue projection) is why its shares have recently outperformed the other two companies above, hitting an all-time high in late December. 

Let’s take a look at AVGO’s daily chart.

FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF AVGO. The December gap followed strong company guidance. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

AVGO’s uptrend going back to November 2023 runs a similar course to NVDA and TSM. Its uptrend experienced some moments of volatility yet remained relatively sold. Its price fluctuations also reacted strongly to both the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, finding support with both.

However, unlike our previous examples, momentum as measured by the RSI appears steady and somewhat cyclical. To get a clearer view of momentum with volume, I added the On Balance Volume (OBV) with a 50-day SMA overlay which shows that buying pressure has steadily been increasing, fueling AVGO’s ascent, and culminating in the bullish jump in December.

Whether or not price falls to fill the gap, you might wait for RSI to dip below the 50-line to better time an entry if you’re looking to go long.

At the Close

The semiconductor industry faces a dynamic and uncertain 2025, with AI demand poised to spur growth while tariff talks threaten to reshape global supply chains and profit margins. Keeping an eye on SMH and monitoring its top holdings—NVDA, TSM, and AVGO—for shifts in momentum and action at key levels is critical if you’re looking to time your trades in this promising space. 

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.