American Water Works (AWK)

Why focus on a utility that isn’t reporting earnings this week? It’s because the biggest question of the week is where should you put your money when markets are in turmoil. Hence, we review American Water. 

Do you want safety with a 2% dividend, a little international exposure, and no tariff implications? Then I give you Jersey’s finest, American Water Works Co, Inc. (AWK). 

Technically, the stock is breaking out to new highs and trying to hold on. If this market sell-off is more prolonged, then this is a good place to hide out and is also a nice diversification for your portfolio. It won’t run like a tech stock, but the risk/reward set-up is favorable. 

Use the $146 level to set stops on the downside with upside targets based on the breakout from this rounded bottom formation at roughly $175. The candle formation put in on Friday to close the week was not ideal but may be worth the risk given the volatility.

And if you like lagging indicators, a “golden cross” formed last week and is another technical reason to look positively on the stock.

Delta Air Lines (DAL)

Delta Air Lines (DAL) shares have nosedived 50% from its January peak as it heads into earnings week. Shares fell 16% when the company slashed its first-quarter outlook in early March.

Delta cited declining consumer confidence amid growing uncertainty over the economy, which resulted in weaker domestic demand. It cut its revenue guide to rise between 3% and 4% compared to an outlook of 7–9%.

Technically, the damage has been done. The stock has been oversold since March and is beginning to show a bullish divergence. In this case, price makes a new low but the RSI does not. Look for a break above 30 in the RSI as a buy signal.

The risk/reward is good but not great. DAL has tested and held a support area just above $35 going back to early 2024. A break and close below $35 and downside risk takes the price to $30. 

A sharp V-shaped rally could happen with good earnings results and positive guidance. That’s a big IF, given the continued air of uncertainty. A small rally could see the stock get back to $44. 

Historically the trends in the airline stocks last for months and are rarely neutral. Follow the trend higher if it changes. Otherwise, a landing lower is likely. 

J.P. Morgan Chase

J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) will be one of the most watched earnings of the quarter. Not only is it one of the largest weighted financial stocks in the world, but its CEO, Jamie Dimon, isn’t one to mince words. 

Shares have fallen 25% from its February 9 peak as the market has corrected in the face of tariff uncertainty and a global trade war. Dimon has been somewhat quiet but is always one to give a great sound bite or two, come the conference call. 

Technically, we have a problem

Shares have broken a 16-month uptrend. The stock price breached its 50-day moving average in March, then failed to recapture it—old support became resistance. After one successful test of its rising 200-day moving average, the stock broke through it last week with some vigor. 

On a rally, look for that 200-day moving average at $228 to become resistance. The sellers are now in charge until something changes. To the downside, we have a target of $180 based on a head and shoulders topping pattern as outlined above. 

Stocks are in a freefall with selling pressure spreading into industrial metals and other economically sensitive commodities. There are few places to hide in bear markets, and the list of alternatives continues to shrink. Bitcoin, an alternative, is holding up relatively well since March, but this crypto is positively correlated with stocks long-term and has yet to achieve a relative breakout. Today’s report focuses on Bitcoin’s correlation and relative performance. 

TrendInvestorPro takes a weight of the evidence approach to define bull and bear markets. This evidence turned bearish on March 13th and remains bearish until proven otherwise. As noted in our March 14th article, SPY broke down with a move similar to the one seen in January 2022. In addition, our long-term breadth indicators are net bearish and yield spreads show stress in the credit markets. We are currently monitoring our capitulation indicators for signs of selling extremes. Click here to take a trial and get immediate access to all our reports and videos.

With stocks in a bear market, I am looking for alternatives that are less correlated. Bitcoin is an alternative to stocks, but it shows a strong positive correlation to the S&P 500. The chart below shows SPY in blue and Bitcoin in pink with the arrows marking periods when they moved in tandem. For the most part, Bitcoin and SPY move in the same direction, which means they are positively correlated. 

There is, however, one specific period that stands out. The blue shading shows September-October 2023. Stocks swooned as SPY fell from 440 to 400 (-10%) in a short period. Bitcoin bucked the stock market as it edged higher into mid October and then surged into late October. Bitcoin rose 10% even as SPY fell 10%. SPY surged in November-December and Bitcoin followed suit.

Bitcoin shows short-term relative strength, but remains short of a relative breakout. The next chart shows Bitcoin relative to SPY ($BTCUSD/SPY ratio). Bitcoin underperformed from June to September 2024, outperformed from October to December (blue arrow-line) and underperformed in February-March (pink arrow-line).

Short-term, Bitcoin is holding up relatively well since March. SPY is down around 10%, but Bitcoin is flat since February 28th. This means Bitcoin is showing relative strength since March, which is reflected in the ratio because it rose the last few weeks. A move above the March high (157.5) would trigger a relative breakout. Relative strength sometimes foreshadows absolute strength so I will be watching this chart closely.

But what about Bitcoin and the Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) charts? I am seeing setups here as they firm in potential reversal zones. This section continues for subscribers as we analyze the patterns in play and the key levels to watch. Click here to take a trial and get immediate access to all our reports and videos.

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With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropping quickly after this week’s tariff announcements, investors are scrambling to identify areas of the market demonstrating strength despite broad market weakness.  The good news is that I was able to easily find strong charts with improving relative strength using the StockCharts platform.

As much as it feels like “everything is down” after Wednesday’s news on increased tariffs on a vast number of products, a quick review of the S&P 500 MarketCarpet on Thursday afternoon provides a quick reminder that plenty of stocks were actually trading higher into the afternoon.

Let’s review two stocks and one ETF demonstrating strength in recent weeks.  And if you’re looking for more potential ideas, perhaps review my Top Ten Charts to Watch for April 2025 with Grayson Roze!

Kroger Co. (KR)

When the economy is strong, and consumer confidence is high, we often see a surge in “things you want” such as travel and luxury goods.  During periods of economic weakness, those Consumer Discretionary names will struggle relative to “things you need” like cleaning products, household goods, and beverages.  So it’s not surprising that our first two charts are in the Consumer Staples sector!

Indeed, the chart of Kroger has a “long and strong” look to it, featuring a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows since the October 2024 breakout.  

Two pullbacks in March saw Kroger achieve a higher low above the 50-day moving average, confirming that buyers are coming into “buy the dips” and push the stock to new highs.  The most impressive feature of this chart is the steady uptrend in the relative strength.  As long as that series remains trending higher, it means Kroger provides an opportunity to do better than our struggling benchmarks.

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP)

Back in October 2024, Keurig Dr Pepper saw a series of downside gaps on disappointing earnings results.  I’ve highlighted these gaps with shaded areas so we can see how often these price ranges have come into play during subsequent price action.

We can see that KDP struggled to regain the lower price gap range late last year, with the 200-day moving average also serving as resistance during that period.  Then in February we finally saw a break above the 200-day before KDP eventually found resistance at the upper price gap from last October.  From late February through early April, Keurig Dr Pepper has basically traded between these two price zones, with the most recent upswing taking the stock back up to test the upper price gap range.

Similar to Kroger, I would say the most compelling piece of this chart is the improving relative strength.  If most stocks are in primary uptrends, then perhaps KDP does not look nearly as impressive.  But with Magnificent 7 stocks and other growth names pounding out clear distribution phases, the chart of Keurig Dr Pepper could provide an opportunity to outperform.

Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU)

Now let’s consider utilities, a sector which is usually bucketed with other defensive groups yet has actually traded along with growth sectors at times over the last 12 months.  The reason for this shift has been partly due to the incredible energy needs of artificial intelligence, cryptocurrency mining, and other enterprises requiring heavy computer power.

The price structure of the XLU is fairly neutral at the moment, with this ETF basically stuck in a trading range since the 4th quarter of 2024.  But with most S&P 500 names trading below their 200-day moving averages, I’m immediately drawn to charts that remain above this long-term trend barometer.  The XLU has actually successfully tested the 200-day moving average three times in 2025, all resulting in short-term rallies.

The question here is whether the XLU can gain enough momentum to push above a clear resistance level around $82.  But even that does not actually come to pass, a chart remaining in a sideways trend could provide an easy way to ride out a period where the major benchmarks are losing value.  And given the higher-than-average dividend yield along with decent price action, the utilities sector seems like it deserves a second look.

Both KR and KDP were featured in our Top Ten Charts to Watch for April 2025, which you can access below!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

In this exclusive StockCharts video, Joe Rabil shows you how to use the ADX on monthly and weekly charts to find stocks with massive breakout potential. Joe walks you through several examples of stocks and ETFs that broke out of an extended period of trading sideways. He also discusses the recent stock market correction and where the SPY and QQQ are trading with respect to the support of moving averages.

This video was originally published on April 2, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

When the stock market lacks clear direction, options strategies can be a dependable friend. I often go through the OptionsPlay ChartLists in StockCharts to look for stocks that show potential trading or investing opportunities. 

On Tuesday, as I was scrolling through the Bearish Trend Following Strategies in the OptionsPlay Strategy Center, using a balanced risk profile and max risk of $2,500 as the criteria, a long put on Boston Scientific Corp. (BSX) stock showed up on the list with a relatively high OptionsPlay score.

The closing stock price of BSX on Tuesday was $101.24 and was approaching its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which could act as a resistance level. Its relative strength index (RSI) was hovering around 50, and the percentage price oscillator (PPO) was close to the zero line. Not much changed on Tuesday (see chart below).

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF BSX STOCK. The stock price is approaching its 50-day SMA but momentum seems to be slowing as indicated by the relative strength index and percent price oscillator. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.The RSI and PPO indicate that momentum has slowed in the stock. So there’s a chance the stock price of BSX could hit the resistance of its 50-day SMA and fail to break above it, or it could break above it and continue higher. The short-term directional bias is neutral and could be a viable options trading candidate. 

Let’s see what strategies the OptionsPlay Explorer comes up with for a bearish outlook on the stock price of BSX. 

How to access OptionsPlay. In the SharpCharts workbench, select Options > OptionsPlay. Then compare the three optimal strategies. 

FIGURE 2. OPTIMAL STRATEGIES FOR TRADING BSX FOR A BEARISH SCENARIO. Shorting BSX, buying a put, and a long put vertical are viable trading strategies for BSX. When selecting a strategy, select one that aligns with your comfort level. Image source: StockCharts.com.

The two options strategies with relatively high OptionsPlay scores are the May 16 105 put and the May 16 105/90 put vertical spread. If you shorted 100 shares of BSX instead of trading options on the stock, your return would have been lower (see left panel). 

Both options strategies, i.e., the long May 15 105 put and the May 16 105/90 put vertical, look viable but a bearish move isn’t confirmed in the daily chart of BSX. There’s a chance the stock price of BSX will remain between $90 and $105 for an extended period (dashed blue horizontal lines). Because of the lack of directional clarity, I’d prefer to opt for the put vertical. You’re still buying the long put but adding a short put at a lower strike price with the same expiration date. This will offset the long put’s cost. 

Your risk is limited to $555 with a potential reward of $945. The trade will be profitable if the stock price of BSX closes below $99.45 before the contract expires. As of this writing, there’s a 48.6% probability of this happening.

Remember, stock prices are dynamic so what you see today may not be the same as what you see tomorrow.

Keep the following points in mind:

• You’re considering a bearish strategy when the short-term trend is neutral. 
• BSX reports earnings on April 30, which is before the options contract expires. 
• Keep an eye on implied volatility since it can change significantly during earnings. It’s important to manage your open trade. There are many ways to do this. View our educational webinars to learn more about how to manage your option trades.

The Bottom Line

With tariff announcements looming, it’s probably a good idea to hold off placing trades until after we know what tariffs will be implemented. Things could change on Thursday and BSX’s stock price shows a clear upside or downside. Review the optimal strategies before placing an option trade, and only place a trade if you are comfortable with the risk-reward tradeoff.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Did you know you can generate more than a 5% monthly yield by utilizing an options strategy? 

In this educational video, Tony Zhang walks you through an income-generating options strategy using the OptionsPlay Strategy Center on StockCharts.com.

Learn how to select the right stocks, identify strike prices and expiration dates, analyze various outcomes, and manage your trades.

Armed with this knowledge, you will never want to miss out on the opportunity to generate income from your portfolio. 

This video premiered on April 1, 2025.

As precious metals surge on safe-haven demand, some gold mining companies are following suit. One standout is AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AU), which has been riding this upward momentum.

Recently, AU showed up among the Top 10 Large Cap category in the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) Reports, indicating that it’s among the top large-cap stocks showing bullish technical strength across multiple timeframes and indicators.

FIGURE 1. SCREENSHOT OF SCTR REPORTS ON MONDAY MORNING. AU, which held the #6 spot at the time of the screenshot, had an ultra-bullish SCTR score of 99.3.

Unless you follow gold miners, you may not know much about AU. But here’s the skinny: AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. is a global independent mining company that’s incorporated in the UK but headquartered in Colorado, US. 

AU’s recent surge can be attributed to several factors, including rising gold prices, strong financials, recent strategic acquisitions, revised dividend policy, and general investor shift to safe havens.

If you’re unfamiliar with the stock, a good starting point is to compare its relative performance against its industry (Dow Jones Gold Mining Index or $DJUSPM) and spot gold price performance ($GOLD). The PerfChart below displays AU’s performance relative to the industry and gold’s price over the past year.

FIGURE 2. PERFCHARTS OF AU, DJ GOLD MINING INDEX, AND GOLD. AU began outperforming its overall industry and gold’s performance in late January.

AU and $DJUSPM have shown volatile, back-and-forth price action over the past 12 months, but AU began taking the lead in late January, surpassing both in comparative terms.

Now that you have a comparative view, let’s take a longer-term look at AU’s price action. Here’s a monthly chart spanning 20 years. Why so long? I had to go this far back to plot long-term resistance levels.

FIGURE 3. MONTHLY CHART OF AU. The stock just broke above a resistance range between $35 and $37, but there are plenty more technical headwinds above.

AU appears to be soaring at relatively high valuations and is running up against a major resistance range between $42 and $45. What adds weight to the long-term bullish case of AU’s current valuations is the rising Ichimoku Cloud, indicating a long-term uptrend projection (26 months) and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading that is rising but not quite overbought. Another thing to note, which is interesting, is that every time the RSI crossed 70, AU reversed to the downside. 

Despite this bullish projection, keep in mind that AU could still pull back—while remaining in a long-term uptrend—and decline to as low as $22.50 before rebounding. This level marks a key swing low and aligns with the top of the Ichimoku Cloud’s support range.

That gives us a long-term perspective. What about the near term? Might there be a favorable entry point for those looking to go long, or is AU technically overbought? 

Let’s shift over to a daily chart.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF AU. Pay attention to the most recent swing high and low.

The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index (BPI) indicates strong bullish breadth as over 89% of gold mining stocks are rallying and triggering P&F buy signals. However, this can also indicate potential overbought levels, and the RSI supports this reading, as it, too, is over the 70 threshold (caveat: a stock can continue to rally for an extended period despite being overbought).

Volume-wise, note how accumulation preceded AU’s rally as far back as September when the Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL) shown in orange began rising above AU’s price as if the smart money began accumulating the stock as it continued to decline before rebounding. AU currently trades above the ADL line, which could signal a near-term pullback. 

Pay attention to AU’s price relative to its most recent swing high (magenta dotted line) and swing low (blue dotted line). I plotted a ZigZag line to make these swing points clear. 

• If AU pulls back, it may find support at the swing high near $33. What’s more important is that the stock price must hold above the swing low near $28 to sustain the current uptrend.
• Expect resistance between $42 and $45 (as mentioned earlier when analyzing the monthly chart).

What Should You Do?

If you’re already in AU and not necessarily committed to the long term, consider tightening your stops or scaling out partial profits as the stock approaches the $42–$45 resistance zone. The RSI above 70 and elevated breadth readings across the gold mining sector suggest short-term overbought conditions, making a pullback likely—even within a broader uptrend. Watch for any bearish divergences or volume reversals, and use a bounce from $28 or $33 to potentially add to your position.

If you’re looking to enter, patience may pay. A retracement to the $33 support zone—or the swing low at $28 if sentiment reverses sharply—could offer a more favorable risk-reward entry. Keep in mind that a break below $28 would weaken the current technical structure and could open the door to a deeper correction, potentially down to $22.50.

For long-term investors, AU still holds promise. The rising monthly Ichimoku Cloud you saw in the monthly chart, strong accumulation trends, and outperformance vs. peers support a bullish longer-term case. But stay disciplined, and keep an ear on economic developments that may have a longer-term impact. Consider using a tiered entry approach rather than chasing highs.

In short, AU’s long-term momentum is intact, but don’t ignore the warning signs of a short-term cooldown. Stay tactical—ride the trend, but always protect your capital!

At the Close

While AU continues to ride the wave of bullish sentiment in the gold sector, a few of its technical indicators, appearing seemingly stretched, hint at a possible short-term breather. Long-term prospects remain intact, but near-term caution is warranted.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

You may not know it, but all of the Magnificent Seven stocks are in bear markets. Given they are such an integral part of the major indexes, we have to believe that the market will follow suit and continue lower in its own bear market. The SP500 is in correction territory already.

Given the decline in the market it was especially interesting to see what the condition of the market is right now. Carl gave us his overview of market conditions with a review of the DP Signal Tables and key market indicators.

In the question period of the show, Carl and Erin gave their opinions on NVDA and Bonds in particular.

Erin caught us up on Sector Rotation where we are seeing clear patterns of market rotation from aggressive sectors to defensive sectors. She took a deep dive into key sectors to include Energy and Utilities.

Erin finished up the program taking viewer symbol requests to look for long candidates and determine key support and resistance levels.

01:02 Market Overview

13:45 Magnificent Seven

20:28 Questions

31:00 Sector Rotation & Under the Hood Sector Charts

39:00 Symbol Requests

Don’t forget! We are running a 2-week free trial on any of our products. Just use coupon code: DPTRIAL2 at checkout. Subscribe here: https://www.decisionpoint.com/products.html

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The DP Alert: Your First Stop to a Great Trade!

Before you trade any stock or ETF, you need to know the trend and condition of the market. The DP Alert gives you all you need to know with an executive summary of the market’s current trend and condition. It not only covers the market! We look at Bitcoin, Yields, Bonds, Gold, the Dollar, Gold Miners and Crude Oil! Only $50/month! Or, use our free trial to try it out for two weeks using coupon code: DPTRIAL2. Click HERE to subscribe NOW!

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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin

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Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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Thank You!

I’ve been writing at StockCharts.com for nearly 20 years now and many of you have supported my company, EarningsBeats.com, and I certainly want to show my appreciation for all of your loyalty. I believe we’re at a major crossroads in the stock market as the S&P 500 tests the recent price low from earlier in March. I called for a 2025 correction at our MarketVision 2025 event on January 4, 2025, to start the year and now it’s a reality. We decided at that time to add quarterly updates to our MarketVision series and our first update (Q1 update) is being held today at 5:30pm ET. I would like to invite everyone to join EarningsBeats.com and join me later today. We will record the event for those who cannot attend live.

Even if you decide not to join as an EB.com member, I do want to provide you my latest Weekly Market Report that we send out to our members at the start of every week, in addition to our Daily Market Report, which is published Tuesdays through Fridays.

I hope you enjoy!

MarketVision 2025 Q1 Update

Join us for our MarketVision 2025 Q1 update at 5:30pm ET today. This is an exclusive event for our annual members. If you’re already an annual member, room instructions will be sent to you in a separate email.

Not yet an annual member? Save $200 on membership TODAY ONLY. This offer will expire at the start of today’s event, so CLICK HERE for more information and details!

If you recall, on Saturday, January 4, 2025, I provided my annual forecast, which included my belief that we’d see a 10% on the S&P 500. That 10% correction is now in the rear view mirror, but what will happen from here? A lot has changed and we must remain objective as to where we might go. I’ll provide you my latest thoughts on this during today’s event.

I hope to see you at 5:30pm ET!

ChartLists Updated

The following ChartLists were updated over the weekend:

• Strong Earnings (SECL)
• Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
• Raised Guidance (RGCL)

These ChartLists are available to download into your StockCharts Extra or Pro account, if you have a StockCharts membership. Otherwise, we can send you an Excel file with the stocks included in these ChartLists in order to download them into other platforms. If you have any questions, please reach out to us at “support@earningsbeats.com”.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks – S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks – S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

The monthly PPO and monthly RSI are both moving lower now, but remember, we have not ever seen a secular bear market that did not coincide with a negative monthly PPO and a monthly RSI below 40. Personally, I believe we’ll see this market weakness end LONG BEFORE we see either of those technical developments on the above chart.

Sustainability Ratios

Here’s the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Relative weakness in the QQQ:SPY, both including and excluding gaps, has turned back down in a big way. That’s not what you want to see from a bullish perspective. We must remain on guard for potential short-term downside action, especially if key closing price support at 5521 fails on the S&P 500.

IWM:QQQ

Small caps (IWM) do seem to be performing better than the aggressive, Mag 7 led NASDAQ 100, but that’s not saying a whole lot when you look at the IWM’s absolute performance in the bottom panel. Perhaps we’ll still get the small cap run that we’ve been looking for over the past year, but it’ll likely need to be accompanied by a much more dovish Fed and with the short-term fed funds rate falling.

XLY:XLP

I mentioned last week that this chart was the biggest positive of the prior week. I suppose I now need to say it’s the biggest negative of last week, because it did an abrupt about face. It definitely appears that the options-expiration and oversold bounce that we enjoyed for over a week has ended. We haven’t broken back to new relative lows, which would obviously be bearish, but we did back a lot of ground that we had previously made up. The XLY:XLP ratio is one of the most important in the stock market, as far as I’m concerned. Watching it turn back down is not a great feeling and a new upcoming relative low would only make it worse.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

When an elevated Volatility Index ($VIX) sends a signal that we could see pain ahead, which is exactly the message sent recently as the VIX approached 30, I usually turn my attention to a rising 5-day SMA of the equity-only put-call ratio ($CPCE) to help identify market bottoms. Once the stock market turns emotionally and begins to show fear and panic, key price support levels tend to fail and a high reading in the VIX, combined with a huge reversal on the S&P 500 (think capitulation), usually are typical ingredients to establish a key bottom.

We’re finally starting to see some higher daily CPCE readings, which suggests that options traders are growing much more nervous and that’s a VERY good thing if we’re going to try to carve out a meaningful market bottom. The last four days have seen readings of .65, .71, .72, and .68. That’s not quite high enough to grow more convinced of an impending bottom in stocks, but it’s light years better than what we’ve seen during any other recent market selloffs.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

We’re coming off an extended run higher in the benchmark S&P 500, where we topped on February 19th. The long-term picture with sentiment is certainly much, much different than it was 1.5 to 2 years ago. Back then, EVERYONE was bearish, leading to a very important market bottom and a subsequent rally to new all-time highs. We really could use more bearishness in options in order to set us up for another rally to all-time highs. Based on this chart, we’re not there yet.

Volatility ($VIX)

Here’s the current view of the VIX:

There was one key development in the VIX. From studying the VIX long-term, whenever a top has been reached and significant selling ensues, the VIX typically spikes into the 20s or 30s, before we see some sort of a rebound – like the one we saw recently. When these bounces have been part of bear market counter rallies, the VIX has never dropped below the 16-17 support range. So for those looking for this current correction to morph into a bear market, the hope is absolutely alive and kicking. My interpretation is that bear markets require a certain level of uncertainty and fear. The VIX remaining above that 16-17 level is our proof that the market environment for further selling still exists. On the above chart, the VIX fell to 17 and then quickly reversed and today hit a high of 24.80.

Based on this one signal alone, I cannot rule out further selling ahead and a possible cyclical bear market, as opposed to the much more palatable correction.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I’ve discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in very specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. Below is a quick recap of how I viewed their long-term technical conditions as of one week ago:

• JPM – nice bounce off of recent 50-week SMA test
• BA – up more than 20% in less than 2 weeks; 190-192 likely to prove a difficult level to pierce
• FFIV – 20-week EMA test successful thus far
• MA – another with a 20-week SMA test holding
• GS – 10% bounce off its recent 50-week SMA test
• FDX – lengthy 4-month decline finally tested, and held, price support near 220
• AAPL – weakness has not cleared best price support on chart at 200 or just below
• CHRW – testing significant 95 level, where both price and 50-day SMA support reside
• JBHT – has fallen slightly beneath MAJOR support around 150
• STX – 85 support continues to hold
• HSY – did it just print a reverse right shoulder bottom on its weekly chart?
• DIS – trendless as weekly moving averages are not providing support or resistance
• MSCI – 3-year uptrend remains in play, though it’s been in a rough 6-7 week stretch
• SBUX – first critical price test at all-time high near 116 failed miserably; support resides at 85
• KRE – looking to establish short-term bottom at 55, with 2-year uptrend intact
• ED – showing strength in March for 9th time in 10 years, moving to new all-time high
• AJG – continues one of most consistent and dependable uptrends, trading just below all-time high
• NSC – testing 230 price support as transportation woes continue
• RHI – has broken recent price support in upper-50s; searching for new bottom with 4.4% dividend yield
• ADM – struggled again at 20-week EMA, 45 represents a significant test of long-term uptrend
• BG – approaching 4-year price support at 65 after failed test of declining 20-week EMA
• CVS – bottom now seems light years away as CVS trades nearly 1-year high
• IPG – how long can it hold onto multi-year price support at 26?
• HRL – still bound between price support at 27.50 and 20-week EMA resistance at 30.15
• DE – still trending above its rising 20-week EMA

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to provide an explanation of what we’re doing with this list and why it’s different.

Also, please keep in mind that I’m not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long-term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. The stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your own due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Very few companies will report quarterly results until mid-April. The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

• Monday: None
• Tuesday: None
• Wednesday: None
• Thursday: None
• Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

• Monday: March Chicago PMI
• Tuesday: March PMI manufacturing, March ISM manufacturing, February construction spending, Feb JOLTS
• Wednesday: March ADP employment report, February factory orders
• Thursday: Initial jobless claims, March ISM services
• Friday: March nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings

Historical Data

I’m a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don’t use history as a primary indicator, I’m always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you’ll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the 3 key indices that I follow most closely:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

• Mar 31: -7.16%
• Apr 1: +67.49%
• Apr 2: +17.08%
• Apr 3: -0.40%
• Apr 4: -17.99%
• Apr 5: +68.25%
• Apr 6: +45.38%
• Apr 7: -48.59%
• Apr 8: +62.64%
• Apr 9: +60.32%
• Apr 10: +47.37%
• Apr 11: -29.33%
• Apr 12: +63.88%
• Apr 13: -21.35%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

• Mar 31: +39.81%
• Apr 1: +83.56%
• Apr 2: +18.47%
• Apr 3: -86.48%
• Apr 4: -70.46%
• Apr 5: +112.55%
• Apr 6: +26.71%
• Apr 7: -38.23%
• Apr 8: +44.64%
• Apr 9: +60.64%
• Apr 10: +47.74%
• Apr 11: -51.08%
• Apr 12: +33.04%
• Apr 13: -0.08%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

• Mar 31: +78.83%
• Apr 1: +27.91%
• Apr 2: +18.08%
• Apr 3: -113.26%
• Apr 4: -75.19%
• Apr 5: +101.16
• Apr 6: +51.29%
• Apr 7: -90.50%
• Apr 8: +59.63%
• Apr 9: +137.22%
• Apr 10: +5.20%
• Apr 11: -80.66%
• Apr 12: +45.00%
• Apr 13: -37.09%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

As I mentioned last week, I’m sticking with my belief that the S&P 500 ultimate low in 2025 will mark a correction (less than 20% drop) rather than a bear market (more than 20% drop). But a bear market cannot be ruled out. Honestly, I think sentiment ($CPCE) must turn much more bearish. This morning, we had another gap down and early selling and this is beginning to take a toll on options traders as they’re now starting to grow more bearish. As an example, check out this morning’s equity only put call ratio at cboe.com:

These cboe.com readings are very high and show a definite shift in sentiment among options traders. Intense selling pressure and lots of equity puts being traded, relative to equity calls, helps to mark bottoms.

Here are a few things to consider in the week ahead:

• The Rebound. It ended rather quickly last week. I mentioned it’s a rebound until it isn’t. We moved right up to 5782 price resistance on the S&P 500 and the bears took over.
• The Roll Over. We’re now in roll over mode, but the S&P 500 did quickly lose 300 points from 5782 to today’s early low of 5488, which tested key short-term price support from March 13th, where we printed a low close of 5521. Can the bulls hold onto support?
• Nonfarm payrolls. This report will be out on Friday morning and current expectations are for March jobs (131,000) to fall below the February number of 151,000. Also, unemployment is expected to move up slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%. Should any of these numbers come in weaker than expected, the Fed could be in a box and Wall Street could sense it by selling off hard.
• Sentiment. As I’ve said before, once the VIX moves beyond 20, not many good things happen to stocks. Selling can escalate very quickly as market makers go “on vacation.” Many times, we don’t find a bottom until retail options traders begin buying puts hand over fist. That could be underway right now.
• Rotation. Rotation led us to where we are now, we need to continue to monitor where the money is going.
• Seasonality. There is one real positive here. We’re about to move from the “2nd half of Q1”, which historically has produced annualized returns of +5.05% (4 percentage points BELOW the average annual S&P 500 return of +9%), to the “1st half of Q2”, which historically has produced annualized returns of 13.08% (4 percentage points ABOVE the average annual S&P 500 return of +9%). This half quarter trails only the 1st and 2nd halves of Q4 in terms of half quarter performance.
• Manipulation. Yep, it’s starting again – just like it did during 2022’s cyclical bear market, which ultimately marked a critical S&P 500 bottom. We’ve done a ton of research on intraday trading behavior on our key indices, as well as many market-moving stocks like the Mag 7. Our Excel spreadsheet has been made available to all ANNUAL members, where you can see the manipulation for yourself.

Happy trading!

Tom