Tariffs have thrown the stock market into dizzying moves, moving up and/or down based on whatever news headlines circulate. The broader stock market indexes have all declined, although they are holding on to their 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) fell below the average on Tuesday, but recovered on Wednesday and closed above it.

Looking at weekly performance, Real Estate, Health Care, and Consumer Staples are the top three S&P sector performers. These sectors fall under the defensive category, which suggests that investor uncertainty is still in the air. Gold and silver prices are rising, an indication of risk-off sentiment.

The Mag 7 Breakdown

Investors were flocking to the Mag 7 stocks not too long ago, but this is no longer the case. The daily chart of the Roundhill Big Tech ETF (MAGS), a basket of the Mag 7 stocks, illustrates that this group of stocks has technically broken down.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF ROUNDHILL BIG TECH ETF (MAGS). The ETF which holds all the Mag 7 stocks has broken down. However, it bounced off its 200-day simple moving average, and the relative strength index stayed above the 30 level.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Note that despite the downward trend, MAGS managed to bounce off its 200-day SMA. The relative strength index (RSI) didn’t dip below 30. Does this mean the Mag 7 could bounce back? Semiconductor stocks were up two days in a row, which may have helped MAGS stay afloat. But semiconductors are vulnerable to tariffs, so why are these stocks showing green shoots? It’s a very challenging market and I would monitor the MAGS chart daily. You wouldn’t want to miss out on a strong upside move.

Change is in the Air

President Trump’s tariffs have stirred the pot and caused shifts in investor sentiment. International stocks are gaining momentum, something we haven’t seen in a long time. The weekly chart below summarizes the performance of US stocks against the rest of the world.

FIGURE 2. US VS. THE REST OF THE WORLD. The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF which consists of large growth US stocks is declining in performance against international stocks.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

It’s also worth noting the performance of the US dollar. The US dollar plunged and is now trading below its 200-day SMA. The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso are showing signs of gaining strength against the US dollar (see chart below).

FIGURE 3. THE WEAKENING US DOLLAR. After tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico were implemented, the US dollar started to weaken against the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The Bottom Line

Now’s a good time to test your patience. It’s not exactly the type of market you want to open long positions. It’s more of a “wait and see” type of market. We’ll get the February jobs report on Friday, but how much it’ll impact the market is unclear. With investors focused on tariffs, the jobs report may be brushed off, unless it comes in vastly different than the forecast. Expect more volatility in the weeks ahead.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

With US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China having taken effect at midnight on Tuesday, US indexes extended their Monday losses, deepening concerns over the escalating trade war.

It was only a few months ago when analysts held relatively optimistic forecasts of emerging and developed market performance relative to the US. Since Trump’s re-election, Wall Street has grown more cautious due to renewed trade tensions, particularly with China, Canada, and Mexico. Nevertheless, given the sharp decline in US stocks, I thought it might be prudent to examine international markets to see how emerging and developed markets might be responding to the new Trump trade war.

Here’s a MarketCarpets view of the action early Tuesday morning:

FIGURE 1. MARKETCARPETS ONE-DAY VIEW OF INTERNATIONAL MARKETS. It’s a mixed bag with mostly negative responses.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

As expected, iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC) and iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF (EWW) are down while iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) remained resilient in the early part of the trading session.

For a broader yet short-term perspective, the five-day view shows a similar trend, but with deeper losses.

FIGURE 2. FIVE-DAY VIEW OF MARKETCARPETS INTERNATIONAL MARKETS. No clear leadership here with developed and emerging markets largely declining across the board.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Developed and emerging markets are largely in the red with no clear leadership. What markets are bracing for are the tariff responses, which could significantly complicate and negatively impact global trade dynamics.

Developed vs. Emerging vs. US Markets

For those of you who might not be aware of it, the “developed” category excludes US markets. This may seem as strange as China’s inclusion in the “emerging” category where it is the second largest economy in the world. But there you have it. So, to get a clear picture of relative performance between the US markets, developed markets, and emerging markets, we’ll look at three ETFs representing each category and compare their performance using a one-year view on PerfCharts.

• iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA): developed markets
• iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM): emerging markets
• SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY): broader US stock market

FIGURE 3. PERFCHARTS COMPARING RELATIVE PERFORMANCE OF DEVELOPED MARKETS, EMERGING MARKETS, AND THE S&P 500. The S&P and emerging markets are declining, but developed markets are rising and holding steady.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

To get an even clearer, if not more direct comparison, take a look at a weekly ratio chart comparing EFA with EEM. From here on out, we’ll be focusing solely on international markets (omitting the S&P 500).

FIGURE 4. CHART OF EFA:EEM WITH GUPPY MULTIPLE MOVING AVERAGES. Notice how the short- and longer-term market sentiment is in an uneasy equilibrium.Chart source: StockChartsACP.com. For educational purposes.

What’s valuable about plotting a Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) is that its two color-coded ribbons are proxies for short and long-term investors. Developed markets have been trending strongly against emerging markets since the summer of 2021. But now, with the two ribbons converging, it’s telling you that short- and long-term sentiment is hovering at an uneasy equilibrium. There’s still plenty of uncertainty, even with developed markets pulling ahead.

Despite the global trade environment, might EFA or EEM present any tradable opportunities from a technical perspective? Let’s shift over to a daily chart of EFA for a closer look.

FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF EFA. A wide trading range with a few indications of a potential breakout.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

EFA is trading near the top of a wide trading range. If you were to look at a naked chart of EFA, the price action would seem a little chaotic. This is why I decided to plot the following indicators to contextualize the price action. As complex as it may look, the indicators make the price action simpler to understand.

Here are a few key points to consider:

• EFA’s wide trading range is defined by the August low and September high.
• The latest surge is accompanied by a rise in the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) score, which has now surpassed 70 (a bullish threshold I use) signaling strong technical momentum across multiple indicators and timeframes.
• The Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL) is rising steadily and is above the current price, indicating that money flows are steadily pouring into the ETF (and by proxy, stocks included in this particular developed market index).
• I am dividing EFA’s range using Quadrant Lines. Note how the 2nd and 3rd quadrants align with the areas of concentrated trading volume, as shown by the Volume-by-Price indicator. This high-volume range can act as either support or resistance. If EFA were to eventually break out of its current range, a favorable scenario would be to see it trade above the lower limits of the third quadrant; more preferably, bouncing off the second quadrant and eventually breaking above its September high.

If this looks semi-bullish, EEM looks a bit more stuck. Here’s a daily chart.

FIGURE 6. DAILY CHART OF EEM. Support and resistance levels are plotted in an otherwise messy trading range.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

EEM has sharply declined after falling below the bullish SCTR threshold of 70. After failing to retest its September high, it has retraced back toward the middle of a range that extends as far back as May of last year. The most concentrated portion of that range, as shown by the Volume-by-Price, lies between $41.50 and $43.50. While the ADL signals positive buying pressure relative to the decline in price, it’s also flattening out, indicating that money flows may be steadily declining.

Despite the volatile price action, support and resistance levels remain well-defined (and the  Volume-by-Price indicator helped confirm these levels). EEM is likely to bounce between support ($41 and $42) and resistance ($43.50 and $45.50) unless macroeconomic catalysts trigger a breakout in either direction below or above the current range. For now, patience is key—waiting for EEM to establish a clearer direction, technically or fundamentally.

Action Steps

Here are a few things you can do:

• Add EEM and EFA to your ChartLists.
• Observe how their price response to key levels mentioned above aligns with global trade environment developments.
• Monitor MarketCarpets (International ETFs) regularly to see if any patterns of consistency emerge over time.
• If a market shows consistent bullish or bearish trends, zoom in on the specific countries to determine if they align with their developed or emerging market group or are moving independently.
• Monitor the SCTR scores and analyze those charts further to see if they present investment opportunities.

At the Close

Given the heightened uncertainty surrounding global trade, developed markets have shown relative strength, while emerging markets remain in a fragile position. With tariff responses still unfolding, you should stay alert to price action while monitoring broader market sentiment for signs of directionality. For now, patience and observation remain key in navigating these volatile markets.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this video, Dave analyzes market conditions, bearish divergences, and leadership rotation in recent weeks. He examines the S&P 500 daily chart, highlighting how this week’s selloff may confirm a bearish rotation and set downside price targets using moving averages and Fibonacci retracements. To validate a potential end to the bearish phase, he shares a key technical analysis chart. What’s your S&P 500 downside objective?

This video originally premiered on March 4, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

The news is that the United States will have a Cryptocurrency reserve. How this will occur is still murky, but Bitcoin surged on the news. Carl and Erin give you their opinion on Bitcoin’s chart setup and possible future movement.

Carl opens the trading room with a review of the DP Signal Tables which are showing new deterioration. The Bias Table shows numerous Bearish Biases.

The market overview was next up with a complete review of the SPY under the hood as well as coverage of Bitcoin, the Dollar, Gold, Gold Miners, Bonds, Yields and Crude Oil. Carl even looked at the Silver chart.

As always Carl walked us through the Magnificent Seven daily and weekly charts. There are plenty of bearish configurations.

After questions, Erin was up sharing her thoughts on Sector Rotation. Defensive sectors are still leading the pack while Technology and other aggressive groups look bearish despite Friday’s rally. Erin dove into the under the hood chart of Technology.

Erin finished the trading room going over viewer requests including SMCI and PFE.

01:30 DP Signal Tables

04:59 Market Overview

10:30 Bitcoin

12:00 Market Overview (continued)

15:45 Magnificent Seven

21:30 Questions (including Bonds and Gold long-term)

31:26 Sector Rotation

41:19 Symbol Requests

Find our video replays on our YouTube channel at @DPAlert. Click on the “Videos” link to get the most up to date trading room and DP Alert videos.

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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin

(c) Copyright 2025 DecisionPoint.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

Helpful DecisionPoint Links:

Trend Models

Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)

On Balance Volume

Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)

ITBM and ITVM

SCTR Ranking

Bear Market Rules

This version only has the charts up to Last Friday’s close and the ranking.

Text will follow shortly

1. (1) Communication Services – (XLC)
2. (3) Financials – (XLF)*
3. (2) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)*
4. (4) Technology – (XLK)
5. (5) Utilities – (XLU)
6. (7) Consumer Staples – (XLP)*
7. (6) Industrials – (XLI)*
8. (8) Energy – (XLR)
9. (9) Real-Estate – (XLRE)
10. (10) Healthcare – (XLV)
11. (11) Materials – (XLB)

Communication Services – XLC

Financials – XLF

Consumer Discretionary – XLY

Technology – XLK

Utilities – XLU

Many are watching the disaster in growth stocks unfold, including us at EarningsBeats.com, but the reality is that many other areas of the stock market represent a silver lining. When growth stocks sell off, essentially two things can happen. One, the rest of the stock market sells off as well, indicative of pure market distribution. These types of selloffs can lead to large corrections or even bear markets. The second type of growth stock selloff can be much more bullish in nature, as money simply rotates from very overbought growth stocks to much more reasonably-priced value stocks for a brief period of time. The former represents a necessary departure from current bullish trading strategies. The latter represents a need for patience. I want you to look at last week’s performance by sector and decide if the selling was more like across-the-board distribution or simply bullish rotation like we’ve seen many times over the past 12 years of this secular bull market advance:

7 sectors rose last week while only 4 declined. It was absolutely NOT a case where everything was selling off. It may morph into that type of market environment, but that’s not what we saw last week. Remember, the NASDAQ was down more than 5% last week, before Friday’s rally kicked in. That 5% drop was over and above the huge Friday drop just prior to last week. The cumulative drop on the NASDAQ 100 from its all-time high was 8%, not far from correction territory, which is considered a drop of 10% or more, but less than 20%. Options expiration may have triggered the start of this 8% selloff, but it was unlikely the only reason.

A week ago Friday, there was a turning point in the stock market short-term. Money rotated very heavily, on an intraday basis, away from aggressive areas like consumer discretionary (XLY) and into defensive, value-oriented areas like consumer staples (XLP). Part of this shift can be attributed to monthly options expiration in February as there was a TON of net in-the-money call premium on key stocks like NVDA, META, PLTR, etc. Nonetheless, it was the 10th-highest bearish distribution day (between the XLY and XLP) since the financial crisis bottom in 2009. The other 9 all occurred during either cyclical bear markets or during corrections. Will this 10th occurrence be any different than the previous 9? The takeaway here is that those types of massive distribution days are NOT normal and should give us bulls reason to pause. They don’t occur very often, thankfully.

But let’s get back to that sector rotation last week and take a look at financials (XLF), specifically, which gained 2.82% for the week and closed one penny below its all-time closing high of 52.19. The top-performing industry group within financials was full line insurance ($DJUSIF), which broke out of a lengthy period of consolidation, as you can see below:

Bullish momentum is accelerating, as evidenced by the rising daily PPO. Yes, we’re overbought with an RSI at 74, but overbought can remain overbought for a period of time. This is a bullish continuation pattern (uptrend followed by sideways, or rectangular, consolidation) breakout and, outside of a possible brief pullback, I’d look for higher prices down the road, ultimately reaching a measurement target of 88-89. I’ll be featuring a full line insurance stock in our Monday morning EBD that is in position to benefit from this industry group breakout. If you’re not already a subscriber to our FREE EB Digest newsletter, you can CLICK HERE to subscribe.

Happy trading!

Tom

Growth stocks just took a sharp hit—what does it mean for the market? In this video, Mary Ellen breaks down the impact, reveals why NVDA could soar higher, and highlights safer stocks with strong upside potential!

This video originally premiered February 28, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

In my recent podcast interview with Jay Woods of Freedom Capital Markets, we discussed and debated the evolving landscape for equities and other risk assets.  At this point, there has been enough of a rotation out of the Magnificent 7 stocks that investors are questioning where we could see new emerging leadership.

One of the big takeaways from my interview with Jay was to focus on areas of the market showing strong relative strength.  And one of the key sectors we reviewed, which also happened to be the top performing S&P 500 sector this week, was the financial sector.

Today we’ll highlight three financial stocks showing strong relative strength thus far in 2025, and I should note that some of these charts were identified using the powerful scanning engine on StockCharts.  If you’re trying to get more comfortable using scans, the new Sample Scan Library can be a fantastic place to start!

When the broad indexes start to falter, it can often be a great exercise to focus on stocks managing to pound out further new highs.  While we often think of the financial sector as banks and regional banks, IntercontinentalExchange Group (ICE) is part of the exchanges subgroup and achieved a new all-time high again this week.

Looking for our daily market recap show?  You can tune in for CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT every trading day at 5:00pm ET on our YouTube channel!

After a major low in October 2023 around $103, ICE spent the next 12 months in a primary uptrend formed by a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows.  Note the bearish momentum divergence that occurred going into the late October high around $167, and how the subsequent pullback found support right at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the previous uptrend phase.

Over the last six weeks, ICE has reversed course and now sits above two upward-sloping moving averages as it has once achieved a new all-time high.  The bottom panel provides a fantastic reminder of the value of buying strong charts after they have pulled back to potential support levels, and also shows the impressive outperformance ICE has demonstrated in 2025.

The daily chart of Visa (V) features a cup and handle pattern for much of 2024, with a rounded bottom pattern ending with a brief pullback before a breakout above the “rim” of the cup.  From that breakout around $290 in early November 2024, Visa has not looked back.  This week, V achieved a new 52-week high, continuing a trend of outperformance that goes back to that November breakout.  

Visa is a great example of what comprises a strong technical configuration.  Price is making higher highs and higher lows, the two moving averages are both sloping higher, the RSI remains in a bullish range between 40 and 80, and the relative strength has been trending higher.  As long as those features remain, the chart suggests further upside potential.

Not all financial names have been breaking out this week, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) a great example of stocks that have pulled back even though the long-term trend remains strong.  This week, JPM dropped to test its 50-day moving average, in a similar fashion to other pullbacks through the last 18 months.  

Even with those frequent drawdowns, JPMorgan has sustained a bullish momentum configuration, with the RSI usually finding a low around 40 on price pullbacks.  The relative strength has improved over the last six months, as JPM has managed to move higher while leading growth names have been struggling to hold key support levels.

One of the most common momentum factors measured by quantitative models is called the “12-1” factor, meaning the 12-month return minus the one-month return.  So a stock that has experienced a strong 12 months but a weak one month would score the best.  I would guess those momentum models are grading JPM quite well given the recent pullback and long-term bullish phase.

The best way I’ve found to weather periods of market uncertainty is to focus on relative strength, looking for stocks that are able to outperform their struggling benchmarks.  These three stocks in the financial sector prove that there are charts out there with decent technical configurations, you just need to know where to look!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

As part of our regular market review in the DP Alert, we have begun to notice a very good indicator to determine market weakness and strength. It may not be new to all of you, but we’ve found as of late this indicator tells a story.

We have been tracking the relative strength of the SPY to equally-weighted RSP. When the relative strength line is rising, it means that mega-cap stocks are leading the market. When the relative strength line is falling, mega-cap stocks are taking a back seat.

The chart below shows you what happens when the mega-caps start to slide against RSP. The market itself usually travels lower (as does equal-weight RSP). It doesn’t happen every time, but it happens enough that we should be checking this chart regularly. If you are an Extra member or above with StockCharts.com, you can click on this chart and save it to your own ChartList for monitoring.

Currently mega-caps are underperforming RSP and that has spelled trouble for the market. It did tip upward Friday, but ultimately the relative strength line is in a declining trend. We’ll want to watch for a move out of that declining trend.

Conclusion: Cap weighting has made it important to monitor how the SPY is performing in relation to equal-weight RSP. A declining relative strength line is bad for the market as a whole and that is what we are currently seeing.

The DP Alert: Your First Stop to a Great Trade!

Before you trade any stock or ETF, you need to know the trend and condition of the market. The DP Alert gives you all you need to know with an executive summary of the market’s current trend and condition. It not only covers the market! We look at Bitcoin, Yields, Bonds, Gold, the Dollar, Gold Miners and Crude Oil every day! Only $50/month! Or, use our free trial to try it out for two weeks using coupon code: DPTRIAL2. Click HERE to subscribe NOW!

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Try us out for two weeks with a trial subscription!

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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin

(c) Copyright 2025 DecisionPoint.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

Helpful DecisionPoint Links:

Trend Models

Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)

On Balance Volume

Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)

ITBM and ITVM

SCTR Ranking

Bear Market Rules