In this video, Joe shares how to trade MACD signals using multiple timeframes, and how to spot stock market pullback setups that can help to pinpoint a great entry off a low. He then reviews sector performance to identify market leadership, covers key chart patterns, and discusses a looming bearish signal on QQQ and IWM. The video wraps with technical analysis on popular viewer-submitted stock symbols, including REAL, PSTG, and more.

The video premiered on May 7, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

With all eyes and ears on this week’s Fed meeting, it’s worth taking a big step back to reflect on conditions related to momentum, breadth, and leadership.  And while the rally of the early April lows has been significant, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 now face considerable resistance at the 200-day moving average.

With that backdrop in mind, here are three charts we’re watching that have not yet signalled an “all clear” for risk assets.

Our Market Trend Model Remains Medium-Term Bearish

Long-time market newsletter author Paul Montgomery used to point out that the most bullish thing the market can do is go up.  The way we make this simple assessment of market trend is using our Market Trend Model.  

As of last Friday’s close, our Market Trend Model shows a short-term bullish signal given the strength off the early April low.  The medium-term model, however, remains bearish as the recent bounce is still defined as a bear market rally.  If the S&P 500 can push above its own 200-day moving average, that would likely be enough to move the medium-term model to the bullish side for the first time since October 2023.

Over the years, I’ve found the Market Trend Model to be a fantastic way of separating the short-term “flickering ticks” of day-to-day market movements from the more significant shifts in sentiment from bullish to bearish.  And by staying on the right side of this model, I’ve been able to capture most of the market upside, and more importantly, avoid disastrous bear phases!

Don’t miss our daily market recap show, CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT.  We’ll track how these charts evolve through the course of the week, highlight key stocks on the move, and boil down the most important market themes from a technical perspective.  Join us live every trading day at 5pm ET, or catch the replay on our YouTube channel!

Will Key Stocks Breakout Above the 200-Day?

While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are testing their own 200-day moving averages, many S&P 500 members are in a very similar position.  At the April 2025 market low, less than 10% of the S&P 500 stocks were above their 50-day moving average.  That reading has reached almost 60% this week as literally half of the S&P 500 members have regained this short-term moving average.

While the bottom panel shows the percent of stocks above the 50-day moving average, the next panel up displays the percent of S&P 500 members above their 200-day moving average.  While this has also increased over the last month, it still remains below 50%.  

The countertrend rally in March 2025 saw this indicator go up to the 50% and then reverse lower, providing a warning sign of further lows to come.  Will we see a similar stall in this indicator in May 2025?  If so, that could indicate a retest of the April low.  On the other hand, if both of these gauges push above 50%, then investors should brace for much further upside for the S&P 500.

Offense Needs to Dominate Defense

Leadership themes could become incredibly important, as many leading growth stocks remain in a position of technical weakness.  And unless the top growth stocks go into full rally mode, it’s hard to imagine meaningful upside for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.  One way to consider this relationship is to chart the ratio between Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples.

The top panel shows the cap-weighted sector ETFs, and the bottom panel shows the same ratio using equal-weighted sector ETFs.  Both of these ratios made a major peak in Q1 2025, and both of them trended lower into a mid-April low.  Over the last three weeks, we’ve seen a dramatic upside reversal in these offense-defense rations, indicating a rotation from defensive to offensive positioning.

Quite simply, I don’t see the major averages pushing higher unless these ratios continue to gain ground to the upside.  We have observed strength in some Consumer Staples names, from Kroger (KR) to Coca Cola (KO), but it would take charts like Amazon (AMZN) making a significant move higher to give the S&P 500 any real chance of pushing above its own 200-day moving average.  This ratio moving higher would confirm that “things you want” are outperforming “things you need”, and that has bullish implications for risk assets.

Investors are facing more uncertainty than ever as we brace for the latest Fed announcement, the newest tariff headline, and mixed results in the form of economic indicators.  By watching charts like these, and keeping a watchful eye on the updated Market Summary page, StockCharts users can approach these markets with confidence.

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The S&P 500 ($SPX) wrapped up Tuesday just below its intra-day midpoint and posted one of the narrowest ranges we’ve seen in the past two months. That’s a clear sign traders are reluctant to take major bets ahead of Wednesday’s 2:00 PM ET Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision.

And honestly, this caution makes sense.

If we look back at how the stock market has reacted following the first two FOMC meetings of 2025, there has been a mix of hesitation and sharp moves. Below is an updated chart marking each FOMC date since 2024 alongside the S&P 500. After the late January meeting, the S&P 500 zig-zagged to marginal new highs over the next two weeks before the first of two sharp down legs unfolded.

FIGURE 1. FOMC DATES SINCE 2024.

Coincidence or not, the S&P 500 is trading at nearly the same price level now, six weeks later, as it was back then. So, how close are today’s prices compared to the close on March 18, the day before the last Fed meeting?

This close (see chart below):

FIGURE 2. THE S&P 500 IS TRADING VERY CLOSE TO LAST FOMC MEETING LEVELS.

The difference is that the index has been rallying for four weeks, starting from the pivot low on April 7, a month ago today. In March, the S&P 500 was trying to bounce after topping four weeks earlier on February 19. That bounce continued for a few more days before dominant down-trending price action took over.

But over the last few weeks, the dominant trend is definitely higher. So the big question now is: can this mini uptrend resume after this pause?

A Short-Term Setup to Watch

A few days ago, the 14-period relative strength index (RSI) on the two-hour chart grazed the 70-overbought level for the first time since late January (see chart below). Yes, it took a nearly 18% rally in a very short time frame for it to finally happen, but remember, the indicator was coming off its lowest level since the COVID lows. Modest 3–5% pops were enough to trigger overbought readings for much of 2024. Not this time.

As you know, overbought conditions never persist, especially in very short time frames like this. However, if this rally has anything left in the tank, we’ll see the indicator hit overbought again soon. That may not happen in the next day or two, but if the market reacts negatively to today’s news, but then a bid returns soon after, it could keep some of the bullish patterns we’ve been tracking in play. That’s just one scenario, but one we’ll be closely watching.

FIGURE 3. TWO-HOUR CHART OF THE S&P 500.

Bullish Patterns Still Intact

There are two bullish pattern breakouts still in play on the S&P 500 chart:

• Inverse Head and Shoulders
• Cup With Handle

And barring a very extreme and negative reaction, the patterns will stay alive today, as well.

FIGURE 4. INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDERS AND CUP WITH HANDLE PATTERNS.

FIGURE 5. INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN IN THE S&P 500.

FIGURE 6. CUP WITH HANDLE PATTERN IN THE S&P 500.

A Bright Spot: Utilities

The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) was the first sector ETF (and one of the first of all the ETFs we track) to notch a new 50-day high, which it hit on Tuesday. On the weekly chart, it’s clear the ETF is now trying to leverage a multi-month bottoming formation

This is especially notable because the formation has developed above two bullish pattern breakouts from 2024. Ironically, XLU’s first major breakout of 2024 happened around this time last year (late April), which set the stage for an extremely strong run, at least through late November.

The current snapback is important to watch, given how well XLU has recently capitalized on bullish breakouts. Some upside follow-through from here would also put the former highs back in the crosshairs.

FIGURE 7. WEEKLY CHART OF UTILITIES SELECT SECTOR SPDR (XLU).

Invesco Solar (TAN) Still Has Work to Do

Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) has been rallying since the April lows, much like nearly every ETF we track. On the daily chart, it’s been trying to leverage a bullish cup and handle pattern, a formation we’ve also seen emerge in many other areas. It’s coming off an extremely oversold condition, with its 14-week RSI undercutting 30 for just the third time since 2021. So, TAN could see some additional upside from here. 

But the ETF will need to do much more to materially improve its long-term technical picture. Nearly every rally has stalled near the key weekly moving averages, all of which continue to slope lower. Selling strength in TAN has been a highly effective strategy since it peaked in early 2021.

FIGURE 8. WEEKLY CHART OF INVESCO SOLAR ETF (TAN).

Bitcoin Holding Up

Bitcoin has held its breakout from two weeks ago quite well so far. The next upside target remains near 103k. Again, regardless of whether or not you follow crypto, seeing the bid continue is a bullish sign for risk appetite across different asset classes, especially equities.

Fun fact: Bitcoin topped a few weeks before the SPX so it can be a useful leading indicator.

FIGURE 9. BITCOIN BREAKS OUT.

Ethereum Playing Catch-Up

While Ethereum’s extreme relative weakness vs. Bitcoin has continued, it too has rallied over the last few weeks. It’s now close to breaking out from a cup with handle formation. At the same time, it’s testing its now flat 50-day moving average.

The combination of a bullish breakout and a move through the 50-day moving average produced a very strong follow-through rally in November, something Ethereum will try to replicate.

FIGURE 10. ETHEREUM BREAKS ABOVE 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGE.

Final Thoughts

As we head into the Fed decision, we’re seeing a lot of cautious optimism in the charts. Key bullish patterns are still holding, sectors like Utilities are showing strength, and crypto is flashing green.

The next few sessions will be important. If we get a knee-jerk reaction to the Fed, but buyers step in quickly it could set the stage for the next leg higher in this rally.

Stay alert.

Frank Cappelleri is the founder and president of CappThesis, an independent technical analysis newsletter firm. Previously, Frank spent 25 years on Wall Street, working for Instinet, the equity arm of Nomura and Smith Barney. Frank’s various roles included being an equity sales trader, technical analyst, research sales specialist and desk strategist. Frank holds the CFA and CMT designations and is a CNBC contributor.

https://cappthesis.com

https://www.youtube.com/@cappthesis

https://twitter.com/FrankCappelleri/

https://www.linkedin.com/in/frank-cappelleri-cfa-cmt-a319483/

Trump’s latest Hollywood “hit” isn’t the kind you stream.

Threatening to slap a 100% tariff on films produced in foreign countries, the president’s announcement rattled several media stocks like Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), Walt Disney Co. (DIS), and others.

What makes the whole thing complicated is this:

• No clear-cut definition of “foreign”: Many “American” films are shot abroad with foreign crews, locations, and studios.
• Tax breaks abroad: Studios rely on international incentives to cut costs—think Marvel in the UK or Netflix in Korea (Squid Game).
• Global revenues: Delivering content overseas boosts subscriptions.
• Disruption to current projects: In-progress shoots and cross-border production deals could face sudden delays, cancellations, or financial penalties.
• And last but not least, retaliation risk. Countries may hit back with tariffs or restrictions on U.S. films, hurting global revenues.

The result? A policy that aims to protect American film could end up undercutting it from every angle.

Which Media Stocks Are Still Worth Holding?

With Trump’s proposed 100% tariff and the looming threat of retaliation, you’re probably wondering: Which media stocks are still investable—and which ones are caught in the crossfire?

Let’s focus on the platforms that most Americans stream at home.

• Netflix (NFLX) is the most exposed to Trump’s tariffs due to its heavy investment in international productions.
• Disney (DIS) is most vulnerable both ways—to the U.S. tariff and international retaliation—in that over 60% of its box office revenue is international; plus, it operates theme parks in China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Europe.
• Roku (ROKU) appears to be the least exposed, as it’s a content aggregator and not a producer. The bulk of its revenue comes from advertising, subscriptions, and platform fees, not from producing or exporting content.

NOTE: I’m excluding Amazon (AMZN) in favor of pure-play media entertainment stocks. While Amazon is not as exposed to foreign film tariffs, it’s exposed to the other tariffs.

First, how are these stocks performing relative to each other and the broader market (S&P 500)?

FIGURE 1. PERFCHARTS DISPLAYING THE RELATIVE PERFORMANCE OF ALL THREE STOCKS VS THE S&P. Netflix is far outpacing its two media peers.

Among these three, which stocks are currently the most investable—that is, which ones are showing favorable price action that could support a viable trading setup?

Netflix Technical Analysis: Uptrend Intact, But Caution Ahead

Let’s start with NFLX—the company most fundamentally exposed to the proposed tariffs on foreign-made films. Check out this daily chart.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF NFLX STOCK. No tariff fears are evident here as the stock continues its uptrend.

NFLX stock remains in a strong uptrend, with a StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) well above the 90-line, making it one of the top-performing large-cap stocks from a technical perspective. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests the stock may be overbought, raising the possibility of a short-term pullback.

The  20-day Price Channel can help identify potential turning points since it highlights recent tops and bottoms. The green-shaded zone marks the first area of support, where a bounce may occur if the stock retreats in the coming sessions. If that level fails to hold, the red-shaded zone identifies a secondary support area aligned with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A drop below this level without a strong rebound could signal a weakening of the current bullish trend.

Caution: Among the three stocks analyzed, Netflix appears to be most exposed to potential downside from Trump’s proposed tariffs on foreign-made films. Investors should remain cautious, as shifting geopolitical dynamics could alter the stock’s fundamental outlook and technical setup.

Now let’s take a look at Disney, a stock vulnerable to Trump’s proposed 100% tariffs on foreign-made films and the added threat of retaliatory tariffs from international markets.

Disney’s Recovery Potential Faces Global Headwinds

With a significant portion of its revenue coming from global box office sales and international theme parks, DIS stock is particularly sensitive to shifts in global trade policy. Take a look at this daily chart.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF DISNEY STOCK PRICE. Oof. Even if it recovers, will we see a breakout beyond the top range?

Disney is underperforming, and the key question is whether the stock is entering a potential recovery phase. The Full Stochastics Oscillator tends to mirror the stock’s cyclical movements well and suggests a possible short-term pullback.

If DIS holds above its most recent swing low support range (highlighted in red), the stock may attempt to retest the resistance area (highlighted in green), which aligns with the 200-day SMA and the most recent swing high.

One bullish signal to note: the Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL) (shown in orange) is significantly above current price levels, suggesting that buying interest may be quietly building even while the stock trades near its lows. Is DIS a solid buy? Probably not at these levels. You will want to see a stronger indication (or confirmation) that DIS is recovering.

Also, note that DIS has been cycling the $80 to $125 range over the last three years. Unless you’re holding it as a dividend stock, there’s little indication yet that there’s going to be growth beyond this exceedingly wide range.

Is Roku Ready to Break Out, or Break Down?

Let’s analyze the daily chart of Roku.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF ROKU STOCK. It’s gearing for a breakout, but driven by what?

ROKU may be the least exposed to the proposed foreign film tariffs, but what’s going to drive it higher? Remember, the stock plunged in 2022–2024 due to falling ad revenue, widening losses, and a high-profile cybersecurity breach that shook investor confidence. Without a clear reason for a rebound, the stock may remain stuck.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is probably the most telling indicator here: buying and selling pressure are at a virtual standstill. There has to be a compelling catalyst to move the stock higher or lower. Still, ROKU appears to be rebounding from a technical standpoint, with overhead resistance levels at $71 and $82.

However, there needs to be something fundamental to validate this technical setup, especially if it turns bullish (like a break above resistance). So if for any reason you’re bullish on ROKU, monitor the fundamental side of this stock play. Right now, it doesn’t look very promising.

At the Close

Trump’s proposed tariff on foreign-made films has stirred up more than just Hollywood headlines; it’s forcing Wall Street to reassess risk across streaming and media stocks. Keep monitoring the technical, fundamental, and geopolitical factors. Don’t make any decisions until you see clear technical confirmation backed by a viable fundamental catalyst. And remember, geopolitical dynamics can still shift the conditions in an instant.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.