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AIER’s proprietary Everyday Price Index (EPI) vaulted 2.5 percent to 307.4 in March 2026, its second-largest monthly increase back to January 2020 (the first was an increase of 2.9 percent in March 2022). Of the 24 price categories that compose the EPI, fourteen rose, two were unchanged, and eight declined. Unsurprisingly, the largest jumps in price occurred in motor fuel, housing fuels and utilities, and food away from home. Prescription drugs, internet services, and food at home declined the most. (The juxtaposition of price changes in the food away from home versus food at home categories likely reflects the gasoline pass-through of food delivery service costs.)

AIER Everyday Price Index vs. US Consumer Price Index (NSA, 1987 = 100)

(Source: Bloomberg Finance, LP)

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March 2026 on April 10, 2026. Headline inflation rose 0.9 percent over the past month, meeting survey expectations. Core inflation rose 0.2 percent, also meeting forecasts.

March 2026 US CPI headline and core month-over-month (2016 – present)

(Source: Bloomberg Finance, LP)

Consumer prices in March showed a mixed pattern, with food prices flat overall after February’s 0.4 percent gain, as grocery prices slipped 0.2 percent even while restaurant prices continued to edge higher. Within food at home, most major categories softened, led by a 0.6 percent decline in meats, poultry, fish, and eggs — helped by a 3.4 percent drop in egg prices — while cereals, dairy, and nonalcoholic beverages also moved lower; the main exception was fruits and vegetables, which rose 1.0 percent. The dominant story, however, was energy, which surged 10.9 percent on the month, its sharpest increase since 2005, driven by a record 21.2 percent jump in gasoline prices and a 30.7 percent spike in fuel oil, though natural gas prices bucked the trend with a slight decline. 

Core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained comparatively subdued at 0.2 percent, matching February’s pace and suggesting that the broader inflation impulse outside commodities remained largely contained. Housing-related costs continued their steady upward march, with shelter and owners’ equivalent rent each rising 0.3 percent, while rent itself increased 0.2 percent. Several travel- and consumer-sensitive categories also advanced, including airline fares, up 2.7 percent, apparel, up 1.0 percent, and education, up 0.3 percent, indicating persistent service-sector firmness. Offsetting those gains were declines in medical care, especially prescription drugs, along with lower prices for used vehicles and personal care goods. Taken together, the March report points to an inflation profile dominated by a commodity-driven energy shock layered atop still-firm but relatively moderate core and shelter pressures.

On the year-over-year side, the March 2026 headline CPI jumped to 3.3 percent from 2.4 percent the prior month, slightly less than the 3.4 percent predicted. Core prices, which strip out the more volatile food and energy components, advanced 2.6 percent over the same period versus the 2.7 percent survey expectation.

March 2026 US CPI headline and core year-over-year (2016 – present)

(Source: Bloomberg Finance, LP)

From March 2025 through March 2026, inflation remained broad but uneven across major consumer categories. Grocery prices rose 1.9 percent overall and restaurant prices climbed a stronger 3.8 percent. Within food at home, the largest annual gains came from nonalcoholic beverages, up 4.7 percent, fruits and vegetables, up 4.0 percent, and the “other food at home” category, which increased 2.9 percent, while cereals and bakery products posted a more modest 2.1 percent rise. Offsetting those gains were declines in dairy products, down 1.6 percent, and in meats, poultry, fish, and eggs, which slipped 0.9 percent from a year earlier. Energy remained one of the strongest inflation drivers, advancing 12.5 percent year over year, led by an 18.9 percent jump in gasoline prices, alongside notable increases in electricity and natural gas costs. 

Excluding food and energy, core consumer prices rose 2.6 percent over the year, indicating that underlying inflation pressures remained present but far less dramatic than in the commodity-sensitive categories. Shelter costs continued to provide a steady source of upward pressure, increasing 3.0 percent over the past year and reinforcing the persistence of services-related inflation. Other areas showing meaningful annual gains included medical care, household furnishings, recreation, and especially airline fares, which surged 14.9 percent. Taken together, the annual data suggest an inflation environment shaped by still-elevated energy costs, firm service-sector pricing, and selective food price strength, even as some grocery categories offered consumers modest relief.

The March CPI report was, above all, the first clear inflation print to show the economic effects of the Iran war filtering directly into household prices. The most immediate transmission channel was energy, where the jump in oil prices rapidly fed into gasoline and related fuel costs, pushing the headline reading markedly higher and dominating the public perception of the report. This was less a story of generalized demand pressure than of a geopolitical commodity shock suddenly colliding with the consumer economy. In that sense, March’s inflation picture looked more like an external supply disturbance than the kind of broad-based overheating that typically worries central banks most.

Beneath that headline surge, however, the underlying inflation structure remained comparatively calm. Grocery prices were mixed to softer, several major goods categories showed little evidence of renewed pricing pressure, and some discretionary consumer areas even appeared to weaken as households began adjusting to higher costs at the pump. Services inflation, while still firm in key shelter-related components, generally moderated, suggesting that the oil shock had not yet meaningfully spread into the wider service economy. The only obvious early spillover was in travel-sensitive categories such as airfares, where higher jet-fuel costs likely began feeding through almost immediately.

Taken together, the report reads as the opening stage of an energy-led inflation episode rather than a true reacceleration of the broader price trend. The phenomenology is important: consumers are first encountering the shock in the most visible and psychologically powerful places — gas stations, travel, and transportation-linked expenses — while the rest of the basket remains relativelys stable. That distinction matters where policy is concerned, as it gives the Federal Reserve room to interpret the move as a temporary oil-driven disruption rather than evidence that inflation is becoming entrenched again. The next few reports will determine whether this remains a contained geopolitical price shock or evolves into something more diffuse across an already-strained household cost landscape.

Housing affordability might be the defining economic crisis facing Americans today. Prices have surged  in recent years, and the country is short millions of homes.

There are both obvious and subtle harms created by the housing shortage. When housing prices rise (as compared to incomes) people have less money left over for other goods and services. Others might be unable to afford housing at all, increasing homelessness. Productivity slows because workers find it difficult to afford living in high-productivity cities. And fertility rates often fall as high housing costs cause families to put off or, even avoid, having children.

Naturally, people are looking to hold someone responsible for the high cost of housing. Increasingly, both the left and the right are placing blame on institutional investors — private equity firms and large corporations that buy residential properties. The Senate recently voted to advance the 21st Century Road to Housing Act, which would, among other things, ban institutional investors from buying single-family homes.

At first glance, the argument that institutional investors are to blame for the housing crisis has intuitive appeal. Large corporations can bid up the price of housing, placing it out of reach of ordinary American families. Consequently, families who may otherwise have bought a home will turn to renting or informal arrangements.

At second glance, however, it becomes clear that this diagnosis of the housing shortage is inaccurate. Most notably, institutional investors simply do not account for most home purchases; they account for  between one and two percent of the nation’s single-family housing stock and roughly three percent of single-family rental properties. In most markets, the overwhelming majority of homes are still bought by individuals. Even in dense metropolitan areas where corporate ownership has grown, institutional investors represent no more than three percent of homes in any housing market.

Plus, there are material advantages to renting compared to buying a home. When you rent, you have the flexibility to move for a better job without worrying about selling into a bad market, avoiding the costs of a massive down payment and ongoing repairs. You also don’t have to tie up a lot of wealth in a single asset whose value depends on one neighborhood and one local market.

But the core objection to banning institutional investors is that it does nothing to address the deeper problem: the lack of sufficient homes to meet demand. To understand why we don’t have enough homes, it helps to step back and think about how markets normally work.

Suppose demand for bread suddenly surges. Maybe a city’s population grows quickly, or a new gluten-heavy diet sweeps the nation. Whatever the reason, people are buying more bread than before. As a result, the price of bread rises. In turn, profit-driven bakers realize that there’s a lot of money to be made by baking more. So they produce more bread, pushing its price back down.

Rising prices encourage producers to produce more of a good, eventually making it more affordable. This is well-known. So why aren’t we seeing this play out in the housing market? If lots of people want to live in a particular city — say, because the jobs pay well or the schools are good — housing prices will initially rise. But you’d expect those higher prices to incentivize developers to build more housing, just as higher bread prices incentivize bakers to bake more bread. As more housing is built, the increase in supply should bring prices back down.

The reason why we don’t see developers building more housing in response to higher prices isn’t because they’re not interested in making more money. Rather, it’s because their ability to build is heavily restricted in much of the United States. For instance, large portions of many cities are zoned exclusively for single-family homes. Apartment buildings are prohibited in areas where developers might want to build them. Even when building is permitted, lengthy approval processes can delay projects for years. In San Francisco, it takes an average of 523 days to secure permits for a housing project. In New York, a lawsuit challenging the 2018 Inwood rezoning — intended to allow roughly 1,800 new housing units — held up the first project in the area for approximately three years before it was able to secure final approvals. And height limits, parking requirements, and other regulations can also make construction prohibitively expensive. Recent analysis estimates compliance and fees comprise 24 percent of new home prices.

In short, the root of the problem isn’t primarily increased demand for housing, though demand pressure is present. Rather, the problem is government-imposed restrictions that make it difficult, if not impossible, to adequately increase supply in response. Consequently, prices rise and stay high. Even if every institutional investor disappeared tomorrow, the housing shortage would remain.

So why do institutional investors take the blame for the housing crisis if they’re not the ones responsible? One possibility is that it’s simply easier to fault a visible, identifiable actor than a set of impersonal and poorly designed rules. 

“The reason so many people misunderstand so many issues is not that these issues are so complex,” wrote the maverick economist Thomas Sowell, “but that people do not want a factual or analytical explanation that leaves them emotionally unsatisfied. They want villains to hate and heroes to cheer, and they don’t want explanations that fail to give them that.” 

When people see harm being done, they want to blame someone for doing it. Large institutional investors are concrete agents, easy to name and criticize, whereas zoning restrictions and permitting delays are more diffuse and intangible.

At the same time, there’s a powerful intuition that it’s unfair that institutional investors can buy residential properties. It seems wrong that large corporations can outcompete ordinary buyers for homes. But this intuition is misleading. In a well-functioning market, being outbid by a wealthier buyer is not itself a problem, because supply expands in response. (A billionaire could easily outbid me for a particular loaf of bread, but that’s fine because he’ll induce bakers to bake more). The real issue in housing is not that some buyers have deeper pockets, but that the market is constrained in ways that prevent new supply from being built (bread being baked) when demand rises.

On the bright side, the solution is clear enough: make it easier to build more housing. Government officials should relax zoning restrictions that prohibit high-density housing and simplify approval processes that can delay projects for years. If these reforms were to happen, the same basic mechanism that works to reduce prices in countless other markets will work in housing as well. Until we remove the barriers that prevent builders from building, housing will remain unaffordable. Banning institutional investors might feel satisfying, but it won’t do much good.

There has never been a time when more people had an “excuse” for being rude at an airport.

During the recent TSA government shutdown, some airports, including Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson Airport and Houston’s George Bush Intercontinental Airport, experienced screening lines that on some days reached more than six hours.

During the showdown, my wife and I flew home through Atlanta. Thanks to a real-time Reddit thread, we found the fastest line and didn’t encounter anything close to a six-hour wait.

While no one was happy, travelers accepted their plight stoically and civilly.

Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson is the busiest airport in the world, handling close to 300,000 passengers daily. A miraculous mixture of cooperation and specialization makes that possible. Most of the over 2,000 arrivals and departures are on time. A wide variety of food choices are available while you wait, and the purposeful faces of humanity hustle past each other, with no one being jostled.

Civility was the order of the day. Despite the hardships at the airport, only occasional miscreants tried to cut in line. Few acted like entitled boors.

F.A. Hayek explained how a healthy society functions when individuals submit to the “discipline of abstract rules.” These rules, which we may not even be able to articulate, create an environment where people can form expectations and cooperate with others.

Even when meeting strangers, we rely on shared abstract rules. Hayek explored how, when traveling to another part of our own country, “Though we have never before seen the people… their modes of conduct and their moral and aesthetic values will be familiar to us.”

Civility is a pillar of freedom. Hayek warned, “Coercion can probably only be kept to a minimum in a society where conventions and tradition have made the behavior of man to a large extent predictable.”

In totalitarian societies, order is accepted as the product of a “deliberate arrangement” and, in Hayek’s words, “must rest on a relation of command and obedience.”

In a tribal society, norms of honesty and human regard don’t apply to those outside the tribe. Without coercion, people would not remain civil for long while standing in line with strangers for six hours at an airport.

As political tribalism grows, norms of mutual regard that make shared life possible shrink. Seeing others as objects that serve our ends overtakes the mindset of seeing people as real as we are.

What will happen in America as us-versus-them tribalism grows? One poll showed that 80 percent of college students would not room with someone who voted differently from them. 

A crisis of civility is also a crisis of freedom. Is a crisis of civility coming our way? 

What Adam Smith Understood

Adam Smith opened The Theory of Moral Sentiments with a challenge to beliefs some hold about human nature. However selfish we suppose people to be, he wrote, there are “some principles in his nature, which interest him in the fortune of others, and render their happiness necessary to him, though he derives nothing from it except the pleasure of seeing it.”

Activating empathy requires a disciplined willingness to see the world from somewhere other than the center of our own concerns.

Smith’s mechanism for this was the “impartial spectator” — that internalized judge we can learn to consult, who evaluates our conduct not from the vantage of our own interests but from the position of a disinterested observer. “We can never survey our own sentiments and motives,” Smith explained. He continued, “We can never form any judgment concerning them, unless we remove ourselves, as it were, from our own natural station, and endeavour to view them as at a certain distance from us.”

To maintain freedom, the inner work of civility is required.

Smith understood what was at stake if we failed to do this work. “Society,” he noted, “cannot subsist among those who are at all times ready to hurt and injure one another.”

Justice [not injuring others], he argued, is “the main pillar that upholds the whole edifice.” Remove it, and “the great, the immense fabric of human society… must in a moment crumble into atoms.” But justice does not generate itself. It depends on habits of mutual regard, whose automatic responses toward strangers carry at least the minimum of respect that social life requires.

Civilization progresses or regresses, Smith believed, depending on our adherence to those habits and our willingness to tame what he called “the great division of our affections” — the selfish side that, left unchecked, will always treat other people as props in one’s own story of me.

At the airport, the number of people thinking, “Don’t you know how important I am?” is still largely limited to members of Congress.

Civility Is Not Politeness

Most of us use “manners” and “civility” as though they mean the same thing. Alexandra Hudson wants us to understand what that confusion is costing us.

In The Soul of Civility, Hudson draws a clear line between the two. 

Civility is something deeper than manners. Drawing on the work of philosopher Martin Buber, Hudson sees it as a disposition to see other human beings inherently worthy of respect. Manners, she writes, are “the form, the technique, of an act, but civility is more.” Without the inner disposition, politeness is a performance. With it, even blunt speech and action can remain genuinely civil. 

A poll shows that 80 percent of college students self-censor out of fear of offending. Freedom is not maintained by people fitting in.

Civility—not agreement—is what we owe one another as participants in a shared society. With civility, we recognize that the person across from us — in the TSA line, in the comment section, in the meeting room — is a genuine human being and not an obstacle, irrelevant, or merely a means to our end.

When we fail to make that recognition habitual, we reveal what Adam Smith understood: Social fabric is far more fragile than we imagine and would tear without our everyday moral exertions.

Hudson puts it plainly. Civility “promotes social and political freedom by empowering us to keep the expressions of our baser, self-interested instincts in check instead of relying on external forces, such as government mandates, to do so.”

Habits of self-governance are demonstrated by the small daily acts of deference, patience, and mutual recognition. Authoritarianism and totalitarianism arise when self-governance weakens and is replaced by compliance.

With precision, Hudson identifies the root of the problem: The “outsized self-love of human beings continues to be the preeminent threat to social concord today.” The antidote to that self-love is not a regulation. It is civility “tempering our self-love out of respect for others, but also so that our social natures can flourish.”

We can stand in a TSA line, seething at the traveler in front of us who is struggling to find their boarding pass. Yet, despite an external polite performance, our every sigh makes it obvious that we regard this fellow traveler as an obstacle.

The alternative is to recognize that he is probably as stressed as we are and as likely to see everyone else as the problem. We can, in Smith’s language, view the scene from a distance. From that distance, our irritation becomes harder to justify, and the humanity of the fellow traveler harder to ignore.

It is in those smallest of daily encounters that civility is strengthened, and freedom is renewed.

Inflation surged in March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9 percent last month — triple February’s 0.3 percent pace and the largest monthly increase since early in the pandemic. On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation jumped to 3.3 percent from 2.4 percent, reversing months of steady disinflation in a single report.

But strip out food and energy, and the picture looks entirely different. Core inflation rose just 0.2 percent in March, unchanged from February. Year-over-year, it edged up only slightly to 2.6 percent. In other words, the broad price pressures that keep Fed officials up at night barely moved.

The culprit is no mystery: energy. The energy index surged 10.9 percent in March — the largest monthly increase since September 2005 — and gasoline prices jumped 21.2 percent, a record monthly increase, as the conflict with Iran and the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices sharply higher. Shelter, which accounts for about a third of the index, rose a modest 0.3 percent. Food prices were flat, with a small decline in groceries offset by a small increase in restaurant prices.

Within core categories, the gains were concentrated in a handful of volatile items: airline fares jumped 2.7 percent, apparel rose 1.0 percent, and transportation services increased 0.6 percent. Working in the other direction, medical care fell 0.2 percent after a 0.5 percent increase in February, personal care declined 0.5 percent, and used cars and trucks dropped 0.4 percent for the second straight month. On balance, the decliners roughly offset the gainers, which is why core inflation held steady.

The three-month trend makes the headline–core divergence even starker. Over January through March, headline CPI averaged 0.47 percent per month — equivalent to a 5.6 percent annualized rate, well above the 3.3 percent year-over-year figure. But virtually all of that acceleration comes from March’s energy spike. Core CPI over the same three months averaged just 0.23 percent per month, or about 2.8 percent annualized — barely above its 2.6 percent year-over-year pace. The underlying trend, in short, has not changed much.

Although the Federal Reserve officially targets the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) rather than the CPI, the distinction between headline and core is especially important this month. An energy-driven price spike, however dramatic, is not the kind of broad-based inflation that would warrant a policy response. Markets seem to agree: the CME Group’s FedWatch tool now indicates that the Fed will almost certainly hold rates steady at its meeting later this month.

The latest labor market data reinforce the case for patience. March payrolls rebounded by 178,000 after February’s revised 133,000 decline, and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3 percent. But perhaps more telling is what happened to wages: year-over-year earnings growth slowed to 3.5 percent, the weakest reading since May 2021. That suggests the nominal spending pressures that drive sustained inflation are easing, even as a geopolitical shock temporarily distorts the headline numbers.

The Fed can afford to look through the March energy spike. Core inflation is well-behaved, wage growth is moderating, and the 0.9 percent headline reading is a reflection of what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz, not in the domestic economy. The real question is whether elevated energy costs linger long enough to raise inflation expectations. If they do, the calculus changes. But for now, the data suggest the Fed should hold steady.

The anniversary of “Liberation Day” came and went on April 2 without much fanfare. The Trump administration’s silence was striking, especially considering all the pomp and circumstance they invested in last year’s lavish unveiling at the White House Rose Garden.

But was it any wonder that the “dog didn’t bark,” given how the last twelve months played out?

Let’s take a quick trip down memory lane.

On April 2, 2025, President Trump vowed that the day would “forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn.” On January 30, 2026, just two months ago, he declared “Mission Accomplished” on his trade war in a triumphant op-ed in The Wall Street Journal, claiming that his tariffs had “brought America back” and ushered in an “American economic miracle.”

Americans disagree, and so does the data. Trump’s tariffs have proven to be one of his most unpopular policies to date. Studies suggest they’ve slowed growth, raised costs, and failed to deliver the manufacturing renaissance the administration promised. Trump never admits defeat, and he never shies away from touting a victory, so his silence over the anniversary of “Liberation Day” was deafening.

Luckily for the president, it’s not too late to flip the script and reverse much of the damage from his ill-fated trade war.

First, however, he’ll need to remember a lesson he seems to have forgotten from his greatest trade deal to date. In his defense, it was 40 years ago.

Sometime in 1986, Donald Trump and Tony Schwartz struck a big, beautiful deal. Over eighteen months, Schwartz shadowed the real estate magnate, getting a feel for the man he would catapult to stardom by ghostwriting The Art of the Deal. In return, Trump got what he’s always craved: his name in gold, top-billed on the cover (plus half of the advance and all subsequent royalties).

Critics may assert that Schwartz was “ripped off” by this deal (even before Trump’s lawyers issued a cease-and-desist order and demanded that Schwartz return his royalties and the book advance, which the authors had split 50/50). Surely Schwartz deserves more credit for writing essentially every word of the bestseller that made Trump an international superstar and paved his path to the Oval Office. Our 44th president might even scold Trump: “You didn’t [write] that! Somebody else made that happen!”

To economists, however, the Trump-Schwartz deal was truly a work of art. Only Trump went on to achieve international fame, but both men reaped enormous gains from this stroke of genius. Rewind back to 1986. Schwartz was a fantastic writer; Trump, an ambitious entrepreneur who could hardly afford to take time away from making deals to write about them. It would have been silly for Schwartz to seek his fortune by trying his hand at high-end real estate. And it would’ve been even sillier for Trump to pen an entire book, as readers of his Truth Social can attest.

Together, they accomplished what neither could do on their own. After its publication, Trump candidly, and quite humorously, admitted he’d now written more books (one) than he’d read. In so doing, they enriched not only themselves but the lives of millions of devoted readers around the world.

That, in essence, is why economists support free trade. Trade and the ideas and institutions that underpin it are among the biggest factors driving the economic miracle we’ve experienced over the past few centuries. Trade not only helped lift the United States and dozens of other nations out of poverty. It also helped make America great in the first place. It’s no coincidence that America’s strongest periods of economic growth correspond to its periods of freest trade. 

Those benefits continue to this day. Trade makes widespread prosperity possible, a fact protectionists like Trump now take for granted.

Trump can deride free trade all he wants, but his trade with Schwartz forty years ago was easily the best business deal he’s ever struck. It quite literally kick-started his personal-branding empire and launched him to global stardom. Trump never would’ve become a household name if he hadn’t had the good sense to strike that deal with Schwartz and the good fortune to live in a nation that protected his right to make that trade freely.

The implications for international trade should be obvious. Trump would’ve been a fool not to strike that deal if Schwartz had happened to hail from New Guinea instead of New York. He’d also be far less rich and powerful.

As economists have noted since the days of Adam Smith, the benefits of trade don’t magically stop at a nation’s borders. Economic laws are universal: they apply to everyone, everywhere, across time and space. If engaging in a mutually beneficial trade with a fellow New Yorker was good for Trump forty years ago, then giving Americans that same freedom to trade with foreigners is good today.

Are there edge cases where trade should be regulated or proscribed? Certainly, few economists opposed restricting trade with Nazi Germany in 1940, and even fewer advocate for unrestricted trade in fissile materials or chemical weaponry today. Yet these exceptions prove the general rule: trade enriches, and restricting it impoverishes.By all early indications, Trump has no intention of heeding our advice and calling off his quixotic trade war. But our plea to him remains simple: Let ordinary Americans reap the gains from trade you so clearly understood when you struck that fateful deal with Schwartz. If specialization and trade are good for you, why not for millions of Americans eager to strike their own “art of the deal”?

For a nation that dominates the seas, the United States now faces a critical crossroads. Its commercial shipyards — once the envy of the world — have fallen into near collapse. 

The Trump administration’s 2026 Maritime Action Plan aims to reverse this decline with sweeping fees on foreign-built ships and subsidies to revive domestic production and rebuild the maritime industrial base.

Yet rather than confronting the structural causes of decline, Washington has turned to familiar tools: protectionism, subsidies, and penalties on foreign competition. America’s shipbuilding troubles did not begin with foreign rivals — and they will not be solved by taxing them. Without addressing the industry’s underlying weaknesses, the plan risks raising costs, distorting trade, and ultimately burdening American consumers and businesses.

The Hidden Costs of the Maritime Action Plan

At the center of the Maritime Action Plan is a sweeping fee regime targeting foreign-built ships, aimed at redirecting demand to US shipyards and countering foreign competition — particularly from China. Under this plan, cargo arriving at US ports on foreign-built vessels would be subject to fees ranging from 1 to 25 cents per kilogram. 

Though seemingly modest, these fees quickly become substantial given the scale of modern shipping. A one-cent fee would add about $375,000 to a typical 5,000-TEU containership call; at 25 cents, the cost would jump to approximately $9.4 million — costs that would severely disrupt shipping economics.

Tanker shipping would face similar pressures. An Aframax crude tanker could incur around $700,000 per port call at one cent per kilogram and up to $17.5 million at the high end. These costs would not be borne by shipowners. They would flow through charter contracts to importers and ultimately to consumers, particularly through higher fuel prices. Car carriers would face similar pass-through effects, with higher shipping costs ultimately reflected in vehicle prices.

Scaled nationwide, the impact becomes substantial. The fees could add roughly $2.1 billion annually to containerized imports at the low end and more than $52 billion at the high end — effectively a tax on global trade that raises landed costs across the economy. Because the charges are weight-based, they ignore value and strategic importance, creating uneven effects across industries. Ultimately, the costs would be passed on to consumers, without addressing the underlying causes of America’s maritime decline.

The deeper problem is that global shipping is deeply interconnected. China, for instance, now sits at the center of the industry. Its shipyards produce more than half of the world’s ships, account for more than 70 percent of new container orders, and make up nearly 30 percent of the active fleet. Major global carriers — responsible for over 80 percent of US imports — also rely heavily on Chinese-built vessels. The policy would therefore disrupt not just foreign competitors, but the backbone of US trade itself.

The damage wouldn’t stop at rising prices, either. Major shipping lines have already warned that widespread port penalties could lead them to reduce stops at smaller American ports, focusing service on larger gateways or rerouting cargo through Canada and Mexico before it reaches the US by rail or truck. The main targets would be small and mid-sized port communities, dockworkers, truckers, and warehouse workers — the very groups these policies aim to protect.

Why a US Shipbuilding Comeback Won’t Happen

The Maritime Action Plan also seeks to increase the share of international trade carried on US-built, US-flagged, and US-crewed vessels — effectively extending Jones Act logic to global trade. Yet this ambition collides with industrial reality. US shipyards accounted for less than 0.3 percent of global output over the past decade, falling to just 0.04 percent in 2024. Production of large cargo ships has averaged fewer than three per year, and the United States has not built an LNG tanker in more than four decades. The Government Accountability Office has described the sector as experiencing near total collapse.

The gap with international competitors is stark. A large commercial vessel built in the United States can cost up to $250 million — roughly five times a comparable foreign-built vessel. Oil tankers priced at about $47 million internationally can exceed $220 million in US yards, while operating a US-flagged ship costs more than $11 million annually, compared with roughly $2.6 million for foreign-flagged vessels. Construction timelines are equally uncompetitive: recent US-built containerships have taken up to 40 months to complete, versus less than six months in South Korea.

Scale presents another obstacle. The plan envisions about 25 ships per year over a decade. By comparison, China delivered an average of 832 commercial ships annually from 2022 to 2024, compared with 259 in Japan and 214 in South Korea. Even at full implementation, US output would remain too small to achieve economies of scale or meaningful competitiveness.

The industry’s decline is structural, not temporary — and far too deep to be reversed by mandates or subsidies alone. Labor shortages remain a central obstacle. Shipbuilding requires a stable, highly skilled workforce, yet US yards struggle to hire and retain workers. The Philadelphia shipyard — often seen as central to any revival — has reportedly faced turnover approaching 100 percent, while other yards report similar shortages. Although countries such as South Korea and Japan have relied on foreign labor to ease workforce constraints, such an approach sits uneasily with current US immigration policy.

Infrastructure poses another challenge. Much of the US shipbuilding infrastructure dates back to World War II, leaving American yards far behind global competitors in automation and productivity. High input costs — driven by steel tariffs and a weakened supplier base — further erode competitiveness. These constraints underscore a broader reality: America’s shipbuilding decline is structural, not due to foreign competition, and protectionism cannot reverse it. Reviving American shipbuilding will require confronting these realities — not repeating a century of failed protectionist policies.

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell recently emphasized that the US economy remains resilient, in large part due to a labor market holding steady, despite growing uncertainty. The direct words Powell used to describe the current situation were a kind of “zero employment growth equilibrium.” There is limited hiring, yes, but also limited layoffs. When combined with persistently low jobless claims, policymakers seem to be of the opinion that conditions remain stable, even strong, in toto. On paper, we rest very near full employment. Unfortunately, this is only part of the story. Upon digging, the labor market shows signs of strain. 

Hiring has markedly slowed, and recent data and surveys point to noticeably weaker hiring conditions compared with the last decade. Some reports show outright job losses along with rising unemployment, challenging the notion of continued strength. Yet layoffs remain subdued, and even jobless claims are staying low, signaling that firms are holding onto their workers. This “low-hire, low-fire” labor market appears stable, but it lacks forward momentum. What we appear to have is an economy that is neither collapsing nor improving — drifting, not growing. 

And so we reach this strange purported equilibrium. Labor markets are not collapsing, but they are not advancing with any force, either. This stability is stagnant. Powell did add that this stagnation “does have a feel of downside risk, and it’s not kind of a really comfortable balance,” but alarm bells are not ringing in DC yet. When looking at employment data, this strange picture emerges. Here, then, we see the limits of employment data, like the concept of full employment. 

Investopedia explains full employment like this: “Full employment exists when all willing and available skilled and unskilled labor is being used.” This is not to say that the unemployment rate is truly zero percent, but it is meant as a theoretical goal. Some people will be willfully unemployed for various reasons. A laid-off mechanical engineer will take some time to look for new jobs in his field before considering other lines of work. The nurse who quits due to understaffing will not necessarily jump into the same situation at a different hospital, but might hold out for a better work environment. Excluding these individuals, the rate should reach zero percent. Often, full employment is defined as an unemployment rate sitting between four and six percent. The US unemployment rate for February was 4.4 percent, falling within the full employment range. Here we see one source of “optimism” for Washington. 

As is often the case, this indicator cannot capture the uneven, localized, and shifting nature of real work. In practice, the labor market is a process that cannot be captured in a single snapshot. Workers search, firms adjust, industries expand and contract, and skill levels increase and decrease. At any given moment, some sectors are growing while others decline. The same applies to regions. These details are often smoothed over by aggregates. This means that telling us where the average stands does not indicate how the system itself functions on the ground. A stable national picture can hide underlying volatility. Balance in the aggregate may in reality be nothing but a series of offsetting imbalances. 

For example, consider underemployment. A man desiring full-time work settling for part-time hours is still employed. A college graduate working retail despite a degree suited for investment analysis is still technically employed, despite underutilization of his skillset. These distinctions matter for economic well-being, despite hardly registering in headline statistics. 

Even the data themselves can be misleading. Employment figures are often revised, sometimes drastically. Many times these revisions show weaker job creation than originally reported, changing the narrative from strength to concern. Recent revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics have erased hundreds of thousands of previously reported jobs — in some cases, completely flipping growth months into contraction months. None of this is helpful nor is it a good reason for optimism. 

Likewise, structural forces reshape labor demand. Technological changes and the ability to switch jobs affect the market in ways not so quickly detectable. The goal is not mere employment but good matches between employers and employees to maximize value creation. People remaining in a job because it is increasingly difficult to switch does not signal health. When necessary reallocation is not happening, we lose out on potential growth and rising efficiency, even if unemployment figures remain stable. 

When just looking at unemployment figures, it is easy for a policymaker to confuse full capacity with true economic vitality. This misreading has its consequences. Policymakers, equipped with the specious belief that they can beneficently direct the economy, might focus on restricting demand so as to avoid inflation. Or they might defer to current policies that are actually weakening the economy, but only in a less obvious way (or in such a way as to only become manifest months later in a “revision”).

With all this in mind, we must be careful how we choose to measure economic health. All national statistics provide somewhat useful summaries, but cannot replace dispersed, local knowledge embedded in actual market activities. The economy does not employ “labor” in the abstract, but rather it employs specific people, with specific skills, in specific places, at specific times, for specific reasons. When this complexity gets reduced to a single number like the unemployment rate, we lose clarity for the sake of a simplistic metric. 

An economy can appear to be fully employed on paper while being less dynamic, less accessible, and less resilient in practice. Headlines might read “strong” or “stable”, but the economy is more than aggregate figures. It is a web of individual choices and adjustments, and those adjustments are real and important, but not fully captured in a headline number.

Just 50 years after America’s founding, the New Hampshire inventor, Samuel Morey, received the nation’s first patent for an internal combustion engine. The motor’s potency was soon realized when Morey attached the two-cylinder machine to a horse wagon, fired it up, and watched it careen into a ditch after falling off the contraption. Despite this inauspicious test run, the motor’s performance was enough for him to envision a future where the engine would transform the transportation and shipping industries. 

Source: Modeling Engineering

Another sixty years would pass before Morey’s internal combustion engine (ICE) would become commercially viable for ground transportation. Even then, its success depended on an international division of labor, culminating in Carl Benz’s famous Motorwagen. The advent of the ICE and the productivity it spurred have been at the root of improved standards of living, the likes of which haven’t been seen in all of human history.

In little more than a century, the ICE made personal mobility affordable for ordinary households, and its practical impact is undeniable. It opened up labor market opportunities, lowered the cost of distributing goods, and provided working-class people with access to distant employment, health care, and education to an extent never before realized. Even in a post-pandemic world, where many work from home, 3 out of 4 Americans still use personal vehicles for their daily commutes. The contribution that these engines has made to wealth creation and modern living is not contested. 

Unlike the early days of the automobile, where owning a vehicle was a source of status, leisure, and thrills, it has become a cornerstone of middle- and lower-class productivity and wealth accumulation. For lower-income households, vehicle access isn’t just a lifestyle choice. It’s a prerequisite for participation in the labor market. 

A study from the early 2000s indicated that the strong positive connection between automobile access and employment outcomes does not hold for public transportation, noting: “enhancing car access will notably improve employment outcomes among very-low-income adults, but other assistance [like public transport and housing assistance] will have, at best, marginal effects.”

However, the legacy of improved lives and productivity is being put to the test, and policymakers from around the world are proposing the elimination of this engine of human improvement, coming from the “green” movement. Indeed, there’s a deep, inescapable contradiction in the greens’ de-growth agenda. Its advocates claim they’re helping the poor. In fact, their policies accomplish the opposite. There’s hardly a clearer case of this problem than their support for policies that restrict affordable, high-output mobility. 

Despite these realities, states like California motor ahead with edicts like the “Advanced Clean Cars 2” measure that call for 100 percent of new cars sold to be zero-emissions by 2035. While legal battles are still brewing over these decrees, over a dozen other states like New York, Washington, and Massachusetts have adopted the Golden State’s standards. Further intrigue involves the EPA’s nullification of the 2009 “endangerment rule,” arguing that CO₂ emissions do not endanger public health and welfare. This led California to seek and gain a special exemption to ignore the EPA’s decision in order to speed up its demolition of the ICE automobile market. 

While the legal drama unfolds, the economic impact of California’s interventions is much more straightforward. The poor will be disproportionately harmed. 

There’s no doubt that car ownership represents a sizeable share of lower-income households’ expenditures. Nonetheless, a survey of households with less than $40,000 of annual income found that nearly 90 percent of them said that acquiring a new or used car was worth the cost. This highlights the subjective but still enormous importance of independence, workplace reliability, and family convenience that lower-income households still desire. In short, they themselves report that despite the tradeoffs, they still prefer to pay for a vehicle’s costs than to go without. Cutting off the poor, who typically purchase older, cheaper models, and restricting them to more expensive models would shut more of them out of what they need to make their household lives work.

California’s schemes and those like them don’t just hurt the poor; they are designed to help the already wealthy. A prime example included a Biden-era tax rule that allowed up to a $7,500 tax credit for full EV purchases. Even though the “One Big Beautiful Bill” eliminated this provision, the “OBBB” still provides a $1,000 tax credit applied to the hardware and installation of an in-home EV charger, a high-priced accessory for the relatively wealthy. On average, those who install EV chargers are 45 years of age and have annual household income of around $200,000.

The harm to the poor in America when locked out of the use of ICEs and petroleum products also holds true across the globe. The explanation of why this is the case has come from energy expert Alex Epstein, the author of The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels, and Fossil Future. Epstein argues that energy consumption should be evaluated based on its positive contribution to human flourishing, rather than CO₂ emissions alone.

Despite the claims of the global doom-and-gloomers and left-leaning California legislators and bureaucrats, passenger vehicles are far from the primary source of their concerns. According to the World Resources Institute, road transportation accounts for just 12.2 percent of all global emissions. Further examination reveals that about 75 percent of that comes from passenger vehicles, for a small fraction of about nine percent of all CO₂ production. [Note: in the figure below, ground transport is contained within the “Energy” portion of the chart] 

Source: World Resources Institute

No matter the realities of global CO₂ output and its sources, the international de-growth movement refuses to acknowledge that the emissions that come from economic productivity are the driver of wealth and the uplift of the poor. If one is cynical, it might appear as though they prefer an impoverished world. If they did, then the elimination of these world-changing engines is one way to get there. Indeed, from a global perspective, the correlation between productivity, wealth, capital accumulation and use, and CO₂ emissions is undeniable. Conversely, if you want a country to remain poor, you can ditch the tractors, pick up the shovels, and lower your productivity, living standards, and life expectancy.  

Source: University Of Michigan Center For Sustainable Systems

Although EVs largely remain the toys of the wealthy in the US and Eurozone, governments around the world still claim that their adoption is necessary to save vulnerable people from environmental apocalypse. Rather than saving these people from yet-to-be-seen disasters, ongoing access to Samuel Morey’s technology has been shown to bring about higher standards of living for the poor. Further attacks on internal combustion motors will stunt the progress that lower-income households across the globe have enjoyed because of their relatively low-cost availability and use. For the sake of the poor, the types of regulatory mandates that have favored EV makers and their wealthy consumers should be revoked, repealed, and thrown into reverse.

In my home and as a foster parent, reading is a constant. In the first days and weeks of a new placement, when everything is unfamiliar and a little uncertain, asking a small child, “Would you like to read a book?” is one of the easiest ways to begin building trust. It’s quiet, predictable, and comforting — and it doesn’t require much conversation when words are still hard to find.

Over time, you also learn which books children return to again and again. To no one’s surprise, the crowd favorites tend to be the classics.

At this point, I can recite Dr. Seuss’s The Sneetches almost from memory. Chicka Chicka Boom Boom often plays in the background of my mind whether I want it to or not. And every so often, we pull another Seuss classic off the shelf that captures the imagination of children and adults alike: The Lorax.

It’s easy to see why the book endures. The illustrations are delightful, full of Seuss’s strange and charming creatures — the Brown Bar-ba-loots, the Swomee-Swans, and the Humming-Fish. The rhymes are playful and memorable. The setting is whimsical and a little mysterious. Children are drawn in by the story long before they realize that it is meant to carry a moral lesson.

And of course, it does.

Dr. Seuss — Theodor Geisel — was deeply influenced by environmental concerns that were gaining prominence in the late 1960s and early 1970s. The Lorax, published in 1971, reflects that moment in American culture. The story is often interpreted as a cautionary tale about business and industrial growth, with the Once-ler representing greedy capitalism and the Lorax speaking “for the trees.”

Many readers come away with the message that industry, profit, and environmental stewardship are fundamentally at odds.

But reading the book again — especially after you’ve read it a few dozen times aloud — raises an interesting question: is that actually what the story shows?

The Once-ler’s famous line captures the supposed villainy of business:

“Business is business! And business must grow!”

Yet the story that unfolds afterward doesn’t really depict the normal functioning of business at all. Instead, it describes something much closer to what economists call the tragedy of the commons.

The Once-ler begins by harvesting Truffula Trees to produce a product called the Thneed. At first, the operation is small. But when the Thneed becomes popular, production rapidly expands. Factories are built, more trees are cut, and the ecosystem begins to deteriorate. Eventually the animals leave, the air and water are polluted, and the forest disappears entirely.

But here’s the crucial detail: once the Truffula Trees are gone, the Once-ler’s business collapses.

In other words, destroying the environment destroys the enterprise that depends on it.

That outcome is not the triumph of profit over stewardship — it is the failure of stewardship. The Once-ler consumes the very resource his livelihood requires.

In a functioning system of responsible ownership and long-term incentives, that kind of behavior makes little sense. A logger who owns a forest plants new trees. A rancher who depends on grasslands manages grazing carefully. A fisherman whose income depends on future catches has every reason to preserve the fish population.

Successful businesses typically protect the resources that sustain them. Their survival depends on it.

The tragedy of the commons occurs when resources are treated as if they belong to no one — or to everyone at once — so that no one bears responsibility for their long-term care. In those situations, individuals are incentivized to extract as much as possible before someone else does. The result is predictable: overuse, depletion, and collapse.

Seen through that lens, The Lorax reads less like a critique of business itself and more like a cautionary tale about short-sighted resource use.

The Once-ler doesn’t fail because markets exist. He fails because he behaves foolishly. He harvests without replenishing. He expands without considering limits. And by the time he recognizes the consequences, it is too late.

What makes the story so powerful is that moment of realization. The Once-ler looks out over the barren landscape and admits the truth: without the trees, there is no business left to run.

In other words, destroying the forest wasn’t profitable — it was suicidal.

That’s why economists often point to property rights and ownership as the solution to the tragedy of the commons. When someone truly owns a resource — whether it’s a forest, a fishery, or farmland — they have every incentive to preserve it. Their livelihood tomorrow depends on how they care for it today.

Loggers invest in planting new forests. Ranchers carefully look after the health of their herds and grazing land. Farmers reinvest in seeds and soils. Long-term thinking and stewardship aren’t the enemy of business; these are the foundations of successful enterprise.

In that sense, the real lesson of The Lorax isn’t that “business is bad.” It’s that bad stewardship is bad business.

Healthy markets reward those who think long-term — those who protect the resources that make production possible in the first place. Ownership ties prosperity to responsibility. When people bear both the benefits and the costs of their decisions, they have strong incentives to manage the world wisely.

That’s a lesson worth remembering — whether you’re running a company, managing a forest, or simply reading bedtime stories with a small child who asks for “just one more book.” And judging by how often The Lorax comes off our shelf, it’s a lesson that still resonates.

Writing during the Great Depression in 1930, John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) pushed back against what he called a “bad attack of economic pessimism.” In his famous essay, “Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren,” he predicted that within one hundred years, rising productivity and compounding growth would usher in a new era of leisure, marked by 15-hour work weeks and plenty of time left over to pursue passion projects.

In a strange sense, he worried that leisure itself might prove the harder adjustment. “For the first time since his creation,” Keynes wrote, “man will be faced with his real, his permanent problem — how to use his freedom from pressing economic cares.”

Today, AI is on the cusp of realizing Keynes’s seemingly dystopian vision. It’s worth asking, as he did in 1930, whether techno-pessimism is warranted. His fear was that the increase of “technical efficiency” (what we might today call productivity) would be so great that government would need to step in to help displaced workers find meaning in a fully automated world.

Those concerns follow the same logic as today’s growing fears that AI will displace work and disrupt society — fears that are fueling heavy-handed approaches to AI governance that could hamper this life-enhancing technology for decades.

For example, Anthropic’s own CEO has predicted that AI could drive unemployment to 20 percent. World-renowned scholars join with tech investors calling the coming age of AI “nothing short of civilizational.”

New television shows like Apple TV’s acclaimed series Pluribus posit a potential future in which humans join a “hive mind,” conjuring themes from Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World, where people prefer to sacrifice their agency in pursuit of perpetual bliss. Critics have drawn parallels between the show’s omniscient hive and the modern lure of AI, with some cultural figures like Joe Rogan musing about the potential integration of AI with human bodies, or “the gentle singularity,” to use Sam Altman’s phrasing.  

Cultural anxieties around AI are real. But, similar to the furor around past breakthrough technologies like the printing press, they are misdirected and often overblown.

Throughout history, new innovations have expanded the scope and scale of what it means to “work,” creating new roles in vibrant industries. The steam engine, for example, moved workers from farms to factories and accelerated wages in the process. The internet sparked new industries in digital sales and advertising. AI holds the same promise of creative disruption, but only if we foster the conditions that enable it to thrive.

A survey of 6,000 chief executives across four countries found that they expect AI to reduce employment by only 0.7 percent over the next three years. An analysis of over 12,000 European firms reported that AI adoption increases worker productivity and has little measurable impact on employment levels. More telling still: industries more exposed to AI have experienced greater wage gains than less-exposed ones, a sign that AI is complementing labor rather than substituting for it.

Rather than take a back seat, workers want to harness AI through new skills and tools that allow them to practice greater judgement, creativity, and human connection in their everyday work — traits that AI still sorely lacks. One MIT study found that low-skilled workers stand to gain even more than their more experienced counterparts, another sign that generative AI empowers America’s workforce and can narrow critical skills gaps.

But let’s consider what companies are already doing on the AI frontier. Zach Stauber, a support agent manager at Salesforce, oversees a fleet of AI agents handling customer support, sales, and marketing tasks. Not only have AI agent managers like Stauber kept their roles alongside these tools, but they have also become vastly more productive and, in many cases, found greater meaning in their work.

The emerging position of the “agent manager” fits a pattern that creative destruction has woven throughout history: Work becomes both more productive and more meaningful, as new roles blossom across industries that were once on the edge of stagnation.

To cite another example, hospitals report that physicians equipped with AI spend less time on charting and more time with patients. Schools document AI tutors accelerating literacy gains. New startups are hiring to build around AI’s capabilities rather than retreating from them.

Despite this reframing, there are serious counterarguments to consider.

The economist William Baumol (1922-2017) observed that productivity gains tend to cluster in manufacturing sectors, while service industries like education and healthcare grow more expensive relative to everything else. For instance, a string quartet takes the same four musicians and 45 minutes it did in Beethoven’s time. That explanation could explain why college tuition and hospital bills keep outpacing inflation even as consumer electronics get cheaper every year.

While concerns of AI widening this “Baumol gap” make sense on their face, they fail under deeper inspection. AI has the unique ability to seep into practically every field, including ones that have yet to be discovered. Think AI tutors and planners, who are liberating teachers from hundreds of hours preparing lesson plans. Or the AI legal research assistant, who frees up more time for attorneys to spend with clients or take on new ones.

But can an AI-driven workforce make us happier, not just more productive?

According to Arthur Brooks, the answer is yes. “AI … has freed us from a huge amount of our most tedious, quotidian complicated problems,” he writes, “for example, what we need to do to support our families, but certainly wouldn’t do if we didn’t have to.”

AI, in other words, doesn’t replace our capacity to reason or think. It grants us more time to explore the questions that make life worth living.

That’s not to say that AI can’t unravel society in destructive ways. AI-steered social media algorithms are causing measurable harm to younger generations worldwide. Those dangers deserve serious attention. But they shouldn’t unilaterally govern our response to technology that could unleash unimaginable spurts of economic growth and prosperity.

Keynes made his prediction during the height of the Great Depression, when Americans were rightly pessimistic about their future. But Keynes struck an optimistic tone based on economic deduction. He believed that abundance would eventually shrink the “economic problem” down to a specialist concern rather than civilization’s main preoccupation.

According to this line of thinking, he quipped, “If economists could manage to get themselves thought of as humble, competent people, on a level with dentists, that would be splendid!”

In no uncertain terms, AI is this century’s greatest technological breakthrough. If we want to usher in Keynes’ era of abundance, we must clear the runway for AI to transform our everyday lives — and do so without fear.