Nuclear expansion reshaping uranium demand

The global nuclear fleet currently includes roughly 441 reactors generating about 400 gigawatts of electricity, according to data from UxC. By 2040, that capacity could grow to more than 580 gigawatts as new reactors come online and existing units receive license extensions.

China alone operates about 60 reactors and has another 38 under construction, representing nearly 40 gigawatts of additional capacity. India is also expanding rapidly as part of its energy security strategy.

Elsewhere, nuclear demand is being supported by reactor restarts in Japan and steady generation in France, as well as new projects in the US and across Central and Eastern Europe.

Isaac noted that many reactors originally slated for closure are now being upgraded and extended, adding new fuel requirements that were not anticipated just a few years ago. Utilities are investing in upgrades that can boost output by 50 to 100 megawatts per reactor, he said — changes that require additional uranium.

“That alone is significant demand for uranium that nobody was talking about three or four years ago,” Isaac said.

Uranium supply challenges intensifying

While demand is strengthening, speakers at PDAC warned that uranium supply faces a range of structural constraints, from geopolitical disruptions to project development risks.

Nick Carter, executive vice president at UxC, said Asia will account for much of that demand growth, particularly in China and India. In terms of supply, global uranium production totaled about 173 million pounds in 2025, according to UxC. The largest producer was Kazakhstan, followed by Canada, Namibia and Australia.

Yet even with new projects planned, UxC forecasts significant deficits beginning around 2030.

“We do start seeing supply gaps starting around 2030 and extending through 2040. Filling that gap will be quite challenging,’ Carter said. Several factors are complicating the supply outlook.

Political instability has already disrupted production in parts of Africa. In 2023, the government of Niger took control of uranium assets previously operated by French nuclear group Orano.

“That is material that used to come into the west that is not coming into the west anymore,” Isaac said.

At the same time, China has aggressively secured uranium supply through overseas investments and long-term contracts. Carter estimates that the Asian nation now controls or has access to nearly 40 percent of global primary uranium production through imports and equity stakes in foreign mines.

“China imported nearly 70 million pounds of open market supply last year,” Carter said, adding that large volumes of Russian material are also being redirected to Chinese buyers.

New mines need higher incentive prices

Despite strong demand fundamentals, uranium prices have not yet fully reflected tightening supply conditions across the nuclear fuel cycle. Downstream services such as enrichment and conversion have already experienced significant price increases, Isaac said, suggesting the uranium market itself could follow.

“We need to see price discovery in our industry,” he said, adding that the era of extremely cheap uranium is likely over.

“We’re out of US$20 uranium, and we’re probably out of US$40,” he said. “And I think we’re running out of US$80.”

Higher uranium prices may ultimately be required to incentivize new mines and ensure long-term fuel availability for the expanding nuclear sector.

“If we treat nuclear fuel as the long-lead item that it actually is,” Isaac said, “Then the industry can transition smoothly into this period of growth.” Otherwise, he warned, the market may face a more abrupt reset.

“It will reset,” he said. “But it may reset more violently than any of us would like.”

Uranium prices enter new phase of volatility

Also speaking at PDAC, Treva Klingbiel, president of TradeTech, said the uranium market is entering a new phase marked by stronger prices and increasing volatility. She noted that uranium prices have historically moved in pronounced “supercycles,” a pattern visible in price data dating back to the late 1960s.

The most recent cycle has been particularly dramatic, she said, highlighting how the market has rebounded from the prolonged downturn that followed the Fukushima accident.

In 2016, uranium prices fell to a low of about US$17.75 per pound as early reactor closures, production costs well above market prices and supportive policies for gas and renewable energy weighed heavily on the sector.

Since then, the market has staged a sharp recovery.

“Since that low point, the price has more than quintupled,” Klingbiel said.

Today, TradeTech’s daily spot price sits around US$85, while the long-term contract price has climbed to about US$90. She added that TradeTech’s exchange value, a monthly pricing indicator, briefly reached US$100 in late January, a level that has been recorded only a handful of times since the firm began tracking uranium prices in 1968.

Looking ahead, Klingbiel said the uranium industry is now grappling with how quickly supply and demand can respond to geopolitical and policy shifts. In her view, the velocity is ‘very different from the past.’

Recent political developments, particularly shifting trade policies and evolving alliances, have already disrupted longstanding nuclear fuel supply chains. While some government initiatives are boosting nuclear power, other policies have placed pressure on available supply of uranium and enrichment services.

Limited investment over the past decade has contributed to what TradeTech views as a widening structural deficit.

“The demand is there,” Klingbiel told listeners at PDAC.

“What we need now is the capital to develop new production to bridge that supply gap.”

Gold price

Gold prices shot up on March 2 to US$5,400 per ounce as the war broke out in the Middle East.

While many may have expected the price of gold to continue skyrocketing on safe-haven demand during an escalating war, this typically is not the case in a region where military conflict can greatly impact oil prices..

Historically, gold prices get an immediate ‘safe-haven bump’ when conflict breaks out in the oil-rich Middle Eastern region. Yet, time and time again we’ve seen these gains are short-lived as macroeconomic factors like rising oil prices and a stronger US dollar often take over the direction of gold prices.

It’s been a choppy week for gold prices as investors weigh safe-haven concerns with a shifting inflation outlook. On March 5, the yellow metal managed an intraday high of US$5,164.05, before paring those gains down to a low of US$5,058.14 as liquidity stresses and renewed inflation fears outweighed gold’s traditional safe-haven role.

Gold reversed course on March 6, rising to an intraday high of US$5,171.92 as prices stabilized after a sharp mid-week correction. The oil price surge weighed on rate-cut bets, pushing prices down again Monday (March 9) morning to US$5,071.03; however, by the end of the trading session the yellow metal had reversed course to close at US$5,136.97.

By early morning trading Tuesday (March 10), the precious metal had reached an intraday high of US$5,235.61, before retreating to close at US$5,191.81. This was fueled by a ‘most intense’ day of U.S. strikes against Iran, despite conflicting signals from the White House regarding the conflict’s end.

On Wednesday (March 11) morning, the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed headline inflation up by 2.4 percent over the last 12-months in February.

More US economic data will come on Friday (March 13) with the release of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index for February, which analysts are projected will show upwards of 2.7 percent year-over-year growth.

With the threat of stickier inflation, gold investors are anticipating that the US Federal Reserve will sit on current interest rates for longer. In response, gold traded back down to as low as US$5,148.30 early Wednesday morning.

Still, gold prices are proving resilient given the long-term fundamentals for the metal. As of 12:00 p.m. PST Wednesday (March 11) gold was trading at US$5,170.83.

Gold price chart, March 5, 2026, to March 11, 2026.

Here are the primary drivers for gold this past week:

• Geopolitical conflict in the Middle East remains the primary driver for safe-haven gold this week. Investors are getting mixed signals as to how long this conflict could last and how much damage it will do to global oil markets.

• US economic data pointing to higher inflation for longer.

• A weakened US dollar and a retreat in 10 year Treasury yields provided some support for gold.

• Investor profit-taking is still at pay this week as are expected technical pullbacks in what many gold analysts believe is a broader uptrend in prices for the yellow metal.

In other gold news, Venezuela’s state-owned mining company, Minerven, has agreed to sell between 650 and 1,000 kilograms of gold dore bars to commodities trading house Trafigura.

The multimillion-dollar arrangement, brokered by US officials, will see a shipment of gold potentially worth more than US$100 million delivered to US refineries under a separate arrangement with the US government.

Silver price

Silver has also experienced a volatile week, but the white metal has made bigger gains than gold, although it didn’t reach last week’s high of US$95.71 per ounce. Silver traded at an intraday low of US$81.28 on March 5 before closing at US$82.23. The following day (March 6), the price of silver closed even higher up at US$84.54.

Monday saw silver move higher to reach US$87. Tuesday brought further gains for silver as fears that the Middle East conflict would escalate dissipated slightly and the dollar weakened. The white metal rose as high as US$89.70 in morning trading before closing up at US$88.34.

Silver sank a bit on Wednesday morning alongside gold to as low as US$84.61 before rising to US$85.46 by 12:00pm PST.

Silver price chart, March 5, 2026, to March 11, 2026.

As the world’s most electrically and thermally conductive metal, silver is still receiving strong support from industrial demand, especially from solar panels, electric vehicles and artificial intelligence technology. The entrenched silver supply deficit also continues to provide a floor of support for the metal’s price.

In silver mining news, major silver producer Pan American Silver’s (TSX:PAAS,NYSE:PAAS) exploration program at its La Colorada silver mine in Zacatecas, Mexico, led to the discovery of four new high-grade veins. Within about 40 percent of the holes drilled returned silver assays exceeding 1,000 grams per tonne.

Platinum price

Investors are increasingly using platinum as a defensive hedge alongside gold amid global instability.

The platinum price traded above the US$2,100 per ounce mark for much of March 5, closing up at US$2,128.60. March 6 brought more volatility, with the precious metal pushing up to US$2,176.10 before closing at US$2,130.70.

On Monday, the price of platinum had climbed as high as US$2,195 near the end of the trading day. Tuesday brought further upside for platinum prices as they rose as high as US$2,242.90 in the morning trade before closing just slightly above the US$2,200 level.

Early Wednesday morning saw platinum slide with the other precious metals to a low of $2,166.80, but quickly spiked to US$2,218.90 before settling down to U$2,178.90 by 12:00 PST.

Platinum price chart, March 5, 2026, to March 11, 2026.

Production remains tight as aging mines and power instability continue to plague South Africa’s platinum mining sector which accounts for more than 70 percent of global supply. Depleted above-ground stocks are providing a floor that prevents deep price collapses.

On the demand side, automakers continue to use platinum in catalytic converters, anchoring long-term industrial demand. As for investment demand, a surge in bar and coin buying, particularly in China and India, is helping support prices.

Palladium price

Palladium was not immune to the volatility trend for precious metals prices this past week.

On March 5, palladium slipped from US$1,658 per ounce to as low as US$1,635 before finishing the day at US$1,649. Palladium prices followed this pattern again on March 6 as the metal started the morning session trading at around US$1,665, later falling back down to US$1,635 again before swinging back up to an intraday high of US$1,671 before closing at US$1,656.

On Monday, palladium gained much ground, climbing as high as US$1,715 on safe-haven demand. However, the following day palladium’s price tracked downward to close at US$1,678.50 on US dollar strength and profit-taking.

Wednesday saw palladium trade in a range of US$1,634.50 to US$1,673.50 before hitting US$1,648.50.

Palladium price chart, March 5, 2026, to March 11, 2026.

Palladium is facing the same pressures as the rest of the precious metals, rising global inflation fears alongside safe-haven demand. Prices for palladium may be trading at three-month lows this week, however there is lots of support for the US$1,650 to $1,700 range given supply constraints and shifts in government automotive policies.

Persistent supply issues include production disruptions in South Africa and uncertainty over Russian exports. On the demand side, regulatory changes in Europe extending the time period when gas-powered vehicles can remain on the market means palladium will still be in demand for use in catalytic converters.

Copper price chart, Q1 2003 to Q4 2025.

Chart from International Monetary Fund via FRED.

Copper had pulled back to about US$8,000 by mid-August 2022 on growing fears of a global recession. In early 2023, prices mounted a campaign to breach the US$9,300 level, once again giving market watchers a reason to believe highs for the metal would soon to be retested.

However, that reason soon faded as rising interest rates dampened the outlook for copper-dependent industries globally. China’s ongoing real estate crisis also hit copper demand hard in 2023. With the demand picture unclear, copper couldn’t hold above the US$9,000 level, and slid to US$7,910 as of early October 2023.

However, copper managed to close the year around the US$8,500 mark and hold around those levels in Q1. The closure of First Quantum Minerals’ (TSX:FM,OTCPL:FQVLF) Cobre Panama copper mine in late 2023 and Anglo American’s (LSE:AAL,OTCQX:NGLOY) revised 2024 copper production target were significant factors behind copper’s price momentum, as were production curbs out of top Chinese copper smelters are also helping to support prices.

The copper price began climbing in earnest in Q2 on building anticipation that the Federal Reserve may soon launch its rate cut cycle alongside a worsening supply side picture. On May 20, 2024, the price of copper reached its then highest recorded price of US$5.20 per pound, or US$11,464 per metric ton.

However, the price of the base metal moved back under US$10,000 by the end of the month, and remained largely rangebound through the rest of the year.

In 2025, copper tariff fears and supply disruptions pushed the price of copper upwards, and it reached record highs of US$13,842.50 on the LME in late January 2026.

Copper prices pulled back to below US$13,000 in the days that followed, and as low as US$12,560 by mid-month.

However, demand sectors for the red metal may face fresh uncertainty in 2026 after the Supreme Court of the United States found Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs unconstitutional.

Although the ruling won’t affect copper tariffs directly, it may cause some economic chaos as countries that worked out deals reconsider their agreements. Following the ruling, Trump imposed new 10 percent tariffs on February 20, then raised them to 15 percent the next day. The new levies will only be in effect for 150 days, after which they will need to be ratified by Congress.

The copper price climbed above US$13,200 during trading in the days that followed.

Despite short-term uncertainty, is long-term optimism for copper still warranted? Let’s look at the current supply and demand factors that could push copper prices higher.

Green energy in driver’s seat for copper demand

Copper’s many useful properties have translated into demand from diverse industries in both traditional and emerging sectors.

In its January 2026 “Copper in the Age of AI” study, S&P Global Energy and Market Intelligence outlined key areas for copper demand and growth. Central to everything is the role copper plays in electrification due to a conductivity rating that’s second only to silver.

Traditional demand sectors such as construction, electronic appliances and internal combustion engine vehicles have long been the main drivers for core copper demand. According to the report, 18 million metric tons of copper were required to meet this core economic demand in 2025, and the analysts forecast that number to rise to 23 million by 2040.

Growth in core demand is expected to be driven by a combination of urbanization and rising incomes in the developing world. Every new power source, every new home and every new air conditioner is connected to the grid in some way.

Overall, China is the world’s largest copper consumer, due in large part to its construction and real estate sectors. However, growth there has slowed in recent years as its property sector has stalled following the collapse of several large developers. The government has responded with a series of measures to try to stimulate the sector, but has yet to right the ship.

At the end of 2025, China released its 14th Five-Year Plan, which the country will implement from 2026 to 2031. The plan has measures aimed at the real estate sector including affordable housing, the rental market and urban renewal. While it remains to be seen if these will be successful, any turnaround in China’s real estate sector could have a considerable impact on copper demand.

Although aluminum is being substituted in some use cases due to high copper prices, there are technical hurdles such as the need for systems to be redesigned and aluminum’s lower conductivity.

In addition to traditional growth, demand is being driven by the energy transition, including energy additions in developing nations, clean energy technologies and electric vehicles.

As a base case, S&P expects global electricity demand to increase 50 percent by 2040, with the United States’ demand growing by 2.5 percent annually, China’s by 3.2 percent and India’s by 4.2 percent.

This demand growth will require the energy equivalent of building 330 new hydroelectric dams the size of Nevada’s Hoover Dam or 650 1 gigawatt nuclear reactors each year between now and then.

In 2025, solar and wind combined for more than 90 percent of new electrical capacity installed worldwide. These methods require substantial quantities of copper to build out, as do the batteries used to store the energy needed to ensure 24 hour delivery.

Additionally, expanding access to commercial energy in developing nations will also require significant copper for infrastructure, energy transmission and more. S&P notes that Africa is home to nearly 20 percent of the world’s population, but its electricity needs are underserved. Copper will play an essential role in moving electricity across the continent.

Downstream from generation, there is an increasing demand for EVs, which have significantly higher copper loadings than their gas-powered counterparts. In 2025, global EV sales grew by 20 percent to 20.7 million, and although the pace is likely to slow, overall demand is expected to continue to grow in the coming years.

The AI sector is another emerging demand sector for copper, as it requires vast amounts of the red metal to deliver the energy to power data centers and manufacture the hardware that its operations run on.

The S&P noted that half of the US gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2025 was owed to AI. This includes processors, data centers, and electrical capacity. The study also stated that AI power requirements alone will rise from 5 percent of total US electrical demand in 2025 to 14 percent by 2030, before demand from industrial, commercial, creative and personal applications are accounted for.

Factoring in demand from these industries and the defense sector raises 2025’s copper requirements from 18 million to 28 million metric tons, according to S&P. As these sectors grow, total copper demand is expected to hit 42 million metric tons by 2040.

Companies struggling to keep copper supply coming

Of course, demand is just one side of the story for copper prices. For more than a decade, the world’s largest copper mines have struggled with steadily declining copper grades and a lack of new copper discoveries.

However, the challenge is that without new mining operations, total mined copper supply is set to rise from 23 million metric tons today to a peak of 27 million in 2030, but decline to 22 million metric tons in 2040.

Although recycled copper is expected to add an additional 10 million metric tons of supply in 2040, this still leaves a supply deficit of 10 million metric tons.

Declining grades at existing mines are just part of the problem facing the supply side of the equation. Since the end of the last commodity super cycle in 2011, exploration budgets have cratered from US$6.6 billion in 2012 to US$3.3 billion in 2025, and nearly half of that is spent on existing mine sites.

According to S&P, the number of new discoveries and quantity of resources has also fallen. Between 1985 and 2000, 636 million metric tons of copper resources were discovered; this fell to 389 million metric tons between 2000 and 2010, and further to 120 million metric tons between 2010 and 2020.

The general consensus is that the easy-to-access deposits have been found, leaving harder to access ore bodies that require longer permitting times and higher capital costs.

Speaking about copper at the Vancouver Resources Investment Conference (VRIC) in January 2026, Founder of Rule Investment Media, Rick Rule, said, “There’s still more to be found, but it’s going to be found undercover. Let’s just say they’re pretty far off the highway. When we start spending money, we will find copper, but we haven’t started to spend money.”

Rule went on to explain that there are challenges beyond just the money, noting jurisdictional and permitting issues. He cited the example of Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) and BHP’s (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP) Resolution Copper in Arizona, which has been stuck in permitting for 28 years.

Delays and lack of exploration are critical factors hindering copper supply growth. On top of this, over the last several years there have also been unforeseen events that have taken supply off the market.

These have included sociopolitical unrest and protests directed at the mining sector in Peru in 2022, the closure of First Quantum’s Cobre Panama in 2023, and, most recently, accidents at two of the world’s largest copper mines in 2025, Ivanhoe Mines’ (TSX:IVN,OTCQX:IVPAF) Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Freeport McMoRan’s Grasberg in Indonesia.

Even though these types of events can’t be predicted, any supply disruptions will have an outsized impact as the supply gap widens.

“Really, last year the market was close to equilibrium, but all the charts going forward were this widening supply gap. We’re there now. And last year we had so many major disruptions that it was nowhere near equilibrium,’ Independent Speculator CEO Lobo Tiggre said at VRIC.

Bull market for copper or bust?

So, when will copper go up? Together, strong demand and tight supply have already created the right market environment for higher prices, though market watchers like Rule and Tiggre still see more upside potential.

Copper’s strong rally in recent years has encouraged the idea that even higher copper prices are ahead, which could be a golden opportunity for junior copper companies in the long-term.

With deficits expected to increase over the coming years, analysts are setting new target prices for LME copper. The Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) raised its expectations to an average US$11,313 per metric ton in 2026, and US$13,501 in 2027. Meanwhile, Citigroup (NYSE:C) is even more bullish, predicting copper prices could climb as high as US$15,000 per metric ton as early as the second quarter of 2026.

A widening supply gap should provide significant tailwinds in the coming years, potentially sending prices even higher.

“Copper has done fairly well, but for most of the year, copper seemed really strangely muted in terms of price increase, and make no mistake, a supply shortfall is absolutely inevitable in copper,” Rule said.

Price increases should also stimulate capital inflows into the industry, which Rule noted would need US$250 billion over the next 10 years to maintain the current level of production. To grow beyond that would require a much larger investment.